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North korea at it again.....

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  • 25-05-2009 4:43am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 9,316 ✭✭✭


    Recently we've had n korea launch a test rocket for 'communication' purposes, and this morning they've done another nuclear test. You dont have to add two and two together, but i dont think we can have a closed, totalitarian state with a international nuclear 'deterrent'.



    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8066615.stm


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,082 ✭✭✭lostexpectation


    well their rocket didn't work, hope the north korean people hurry up and kick him out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Yeah, North Korea is a really dodgy regime. While, I agree that something needs to be done, what something needs to be, is a different story.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 46,938 ✭✭✭✭Nodin


    Well its not clear if hes just the public face of a group of Generals, or the Head Honcho himself. His younger son is pipped to take over after him, so I doubt we'll see any change there.

    As for the test, they probably want some cash and blu-ray dvds again.....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,892 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    well something will have to be done soon.
    I cant imagine the fear that the people of south Korea must feel.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,698 ✭✭✭InFront


    The North Koreans already said that any response to the initial missile last month in terms of sanctions or any application of pressure put upon it in relation to compliance will be seen as a declaration of war.
    Link

    For me, I'm not fully convinced that such outbursts are the above can actually be taken literally. Do the North Korean leadership really have the stupidity to further this programme to an armed conflict or is it just testosterone as it has been so far? I wouldn't like to rule anything out, but I'd say its the latter.


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,237 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    The country is already at war. Many people seem to forget this detail.

    Of course, don't worry about it. According to some people, you can negotiate your way out of anything. We'll just offer some rice, make nice noises, and the bad man will not do anything any more.

    NTM


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    But yet, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction :rolleyes:

    And here's NK openly testing nuclear bombs. No intervention?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    North Korea have technically been at war for the last 50 years. They threaten to go back to actual war every day , its the same retoric only now a little louder now they have a nuclear bomb. In the end they won't go to war because they would be anhilated and they know this. Ole Kim ain't an edjit he 's got a good thing going on for himself why would he ruin it all by going to war?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    dlofnep wrote: »
    But yet, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction :rolleyes:

    And here's NK openly testing nuclear bombs. No intervention?

    Iraq also had oil.... North Korea has absolutely nothing of use-no natural resources so no reason to go after them. Too much hassle


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Poccington


    dlofnep wrote: »
    But yet, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction :rolleyes:

    And here's NK openly testing nuclear bombs. No intervention?

    The US weren't engaged in 2 major deployments when they went into Iraq and they obviously enough had a different person at the helm.

    If things continue to go on like this I could still see countries stepping in, although perhaps not in a conventional role.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    North Korea have technically been at war for the last 50 years. They threaten to go back to actual war every day , its the same retoric only now a little louder now they have a nuclear bomb. In the end they won't go to war because they would be anhilated and they know this. Ole Kim ain't an edjit he 's got a good thing going on for himself why would he ruin it all by going to war?

    Kim is also very ill with no clear successor in place. God only knows what is going through his mind. Its a very dangerous development and if I lived in South Korea I would be increasingly nervous of my neighbours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,977 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    You only have to read the "anti-imperialistic" propaganda on the official website, to see that they're still stuck in the 50s, and barking mad. The regime would take some shifting, given the amount of control that they have in all areas.

    http://www.korea-dpr.com/

    There's a lot more chance of Cuba throwing in the towel and going for the money than these people.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    Poccington wrote: »
    The US weren't engaged in 2 major deployments when they went into Iraq and they obviously enough had a different person at the helm.

    Iraq was never a threat. NK has always been.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,759 ✭✭✭✭dlofnep


    And why does China consistently support NK?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,698 ✭✭✭InFront


    The country is already at war. Many people seem to forget this detail.
    I don't think anyone has forgotten that nor did anyone say otherwise, but there is no armed conflict and really it's hard to imagine one.

    Not too long ago some people were predicting an imminant Iranian invasion/ attck by the US army. An intervention in North Korea is even less likely than that, and that makes it pretty damn unlikely. I don't see this as anything more than testosterone or gusto for now tbh.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,892 ✭✭✭spank_inferno


    Mabey there are a lot of Koreans in china and vise versa in Korea?

    I think China's support for its neighbour can only go so far.
    I doubt she will tolerate a nuclear war on its doorstep

    Hypotheticaly, if the UN did deciede to "grow a pair" and mobilised a task force to Korea, I'd reckon China could lead it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    InFront wrote: »
    I don't think anyone has forgotten that nor did anyone say otherwise, but there is no armed conflict and really it's hard to imagine one.

    Not too long ago some people were predicting an imminant Iranian invasion/ attck by the US army. An intervention in North Korea is even less likely than that, and that makes it pretty damn unlikely. I don't see this as anything more than testosterone or gusto for now tbh.

    There is no way the US or anyone else is going to take on a Nuclear armed army of 1 million men who would have large proportion of fanatics. The best bet is to groom his successor, Kim favours his youngest son apparently and when you are sure he will be willing to talk to remove Kim the elder by non standard means.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    gandalf wrote: »
    Kim is also very ill with no clear successor in place. God only knows what is going through his mind. Its a very dangerous development and if I lived in South Korea I would be increasingly nervous of my neighbours.

    He does have a successor, sure he's Kim's favourite son. All ready for the takeover.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5522699.ece


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    He does have a successor, sure he's Kim's favourite son. All ready for the takeover.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5522699.ece

    Check the link in the post above yours I discovered it after I posted my first response ;)


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,237 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    InFront wrote: »
    Not too long ago some people were predicting an imminant Iranian invasion/ attck by the US army. An intervention in North Korea is even less likely than that, and that makes it pretty damn unlikely. I don't see this as anything more than testosterone or gusto for now tbh.

    On the other hand, Iran isn't in the process of testing nukes, so there's a little more time to play with.

    In theory, you can make the argument that NK is caught in its own web.
    Bear in mind that the entire social structure is based more or less on the concept of the infallability of the Dear Leader and the invincibility of his military. If the US were to bomb the nuclear facility, the first question is "Would the North Koreans even admit to their own people that the US can come along and bomb with impunity?"

    Secondly, even if they did admit it, would they really cross the border over it? As TheInquisitor points out, it's a common threat, but they know that in reality they'll probably lose.

    It seems to me that in the event of a low-key strike by US (Or Japanese, or South Korean) aircraft, for example, the course of action most feasible to DPRK seems to me to be to simply hush it up, and pretend it didn't happen. A course of action which may be actually feasible in such a totalitarian state.

    Of course, there is always the chance of an irrational, full-scale response. The problem then becomes, do the ROK and Japan want a nuclear armed hostile state next to them, or does fighting the war now without any nukes involved become the more appealing prospect? If the latter, then it may be that the risk involved with a strike may well be worth it.

    NTM


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,082 ✭✭✭lostexpectation


    its all been done deep in mountains hard to get at and not a threat to outside world in itself, think this is case where its legimate to lean on china and anyone else supporting NK


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 90 ✭✭랴연


    well something will have to be done soon.
    I cant imagine the fear that the people of south Korea must feel.

    Absolutely none.

    I've been living here for years and this is the opinion of the vast majority of people. They simply don't believe, rightly or wrongly, that the North would ever launch a nuke against them. Personally after living here I agree 100% with that opinion too.

    Hard evidence/reasons why ? Don't have any.

    South Koreans (and North Koreans) see themselves one country divided, they strictly believe that Koreans are unique in the world, by blood and that they are all "Brothers". They're a divided house, not 2 houses at war.

    I find it very humorous actually because I was watching the Korean news today and I didn't even know the North tested another nuke. In normal times with no news it would be on it but at the moment, the whole country is in mourning because their ex-president committed suicide because he was caught taking a bribe. (Whatdoya think of that Bertie ?)

    So now no one cares what the North are doing whatsoever. Honestly, its all about the former president and Kim Jung-il isn't getting any attention.

    If you go to the national broadcaster website.

    http://english.kbs.co.kr/ The English version headline is about the NK test.
    http://news.kbs.co.kr/ The Korean language headline is about the former president.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 90 ✭✭랴연


    Mabey there are a lot of Koreans in china and vise versa in Korea?

    Yes, Manchuria is full of Chinese of Korean decent (who speak Korean) but thats only a fraction of the population. China support NK because they don't want the US in the area,on their border. Simple as.
    I think China's support for its neighbour can only go so far.
    I doubt she will tolerate a nuclear war on its doorstep

    Theres no chance of that happening. NK will huff and huff but thats all it is.
    Hypotheticaly, if the UN did deciede to "grow a pair" and mobilised a task force to Korea, I'd reckon China could lead it.

    Not a chance in hell.

    Plus, I think you need to read up on NK's military ability before you start talking about invasions. North Korea is not Iraq, its many many times stronger with a highly trained skillful military. Ground force (training + equipment + numbers) wise (minus air support of course) they are a match for South Korea + the US.

    NK may be a ****hole but its a ****hole where the military get treated better then anyone and they are trained and supplied with good quality equipment. Your also talking about an entire population who would take up arms against you and there would be no surrendering or running away like the Iraqi's.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Peoples_Army
    North Korea is the most militarised country in the world today[3], having the fourth-largest standing army in the world, at an estimated 1.1 million armed personnel, with about 20% of men ages 17–54 in the regular armed forces.[4] It also has the Worker-Peasant Red Guard, a reserve force comprising 3.5m+ (IISS), 3.8m (USMC) or 4.7m (State Department) militia. It operates an enormous network of military facilities scattered around the country, a large weapons production basis, and an extremely dense air defence system.

    They make a lot of their own weaponry, which contrary to popular belief is quite effective. And their soldiers training is really top class, much better then the Americans (General Infantry).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭Poccington


    dlofnep wrote: »
    Iraq was never a threat. NK has always been.

    Oh I wasn't disagreeing with you, I was just trying to offer an opinion on why there's been no intervention as of yet with NK.


  • Registered Users Posts: 81,711 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    dlofnep wrote: »
    But yet, Iraq had weapons of mass destruction :rolleyes:

    And here's NK openly testing nuclear bombs. No intervention?

    If this were 2001 and it was right next door to where we had already deployed to go after the Taliban, I'm sure it would be a different story. As it is comparing Iraq to NK is Apples and Oranges. Iraq was "producing" weapons, NK has successfully Tested.
    dlofnep wrote: »
    And why does China consistently support NK?

    And this. Despite the reasons, trying to invade NK may very well invite WWIII if China decides to back them.

    What were to happen, if Kim went insane, decides with the few nukes he has working, to place them in the middle of major NK population centers - so that if anyone invades, he'll press the button? Scorched Earth to new extremes. But dont mind me im rambling over my morning coffee.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,643 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Poccington wrote: »
    The US weren't engaged in 2 major deployments when they went into Iraq and they obviously enough had a different person at the helm.

    If things continue to go on like this I could still see countries stepping in, although perhaps not in a conventional role.

    even if America were not occupied with 2 major deployments they would never launch a conventional attack on North Korea. Dick Cheney in one of his more candid moments admitted America went into Iraq because it was "do-able". Attacking North Korea would be akin to opening pandoras box.

    so the the most likely scenario is either a covert mission to entice an overthrow of the dear leader or, more inducements...


  • Registered Users Posts: 81,711 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Covert assassination is a bit out of scope also. And doesnt really alleviate the problem.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,698 ✭✭✭InFront


    gandalf wrote: »
    Kim favours his youngest son apparently and when you are sure he will be willing to talk to remove Kim the elder by non standard means.
    Yes that makes sense.

    I get the impression things went downhill after Pops kicked it, I'm not sure how any son let alone grandson could live up to this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zYsUqAYg6c


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,237 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    랴연 wrote: »
    They make a lot of their own weaponry, which contrary to popular belief is quite effective. And their soldiers training is really top class, much better then the Americans (General Infantry).

    Not really a subject matter expert on this, are you?

    Whilst I would be willing to believe the concept that the average DPRK infantryman is the equal of any other infantryman in the world in terms of physical fitness, rifle marskmanship (though with the rifle they have, that's questionable in practice), concealment and squad tactics, there's a lot more to modern soldiering that those simple skills. The extremely conformist NK military suffers the flaws of the old Soviet bloc militaries upon which it is based: It is highly inflexible and does not tolerate individual initiative much. Soldiers are not trained to a level higher than that which they hold, and the professional, educated NCO corps which is the backbone of a modern military simply does not exist.

    This goes to larger levels as well. Any soldier in the US military is capable of grabbing a radio and calling in immediate support. In the DPRK's system, only designated artillery observers are authorised to do so. Response times are slower. And that's before you get to the technical intricacies of calling in CCA or CAS. Or the serious EW advantage the Western powers have in terms of jamming and resistance to jamming to make the call in the first place.

    Indeed, when it comes to equipment, there is simply no comparison between the DPRK's equipment and that of the powers it faces. For example, the only tank it builds which is even remotely capable of being considered 'modern' (and which they have only in small numbers) is a T-72 variant which is uniquely unsuited to Korea's mountainous terrain. The Air Force won't last the week. The artillery is very strong, but suffers a lack of mobility and response capability. Night fighting capability is all but useless throughout the army.

    Their one and only strength is manpower. UN forces can expect a mass infiltration and combat actions behind the front lines. The Russians had a saying that "Quantity has a quality all of its own", but when the technological overmatch is so huge, the chances of a DPRK victory are negligible. They can be as motivated as they want, but in the final analysis if one army has equipment to the level of thermal sights mounted on man-packed machineguns, and the other has nothing better than active IR on vehicles, the result is going to be pre-ordained. Especially when you look at the defences that the ROK has put into place. All you need to do is go take a drive North and look at the layers of coast-to-coast barriers and anti-vehicle obstacles between Seoul and the DMZ. It is true that as the population ages and the younger people gain in numbers that the perception of the threat from the North has decreased. That has not yet permeated through the mid-to-senior levels of the military, however, they take dealing with the DPRK very seriously.
    Your also talking about an entire population who would take up arms against you and there would be no surrendering or running away like the Iraqi's

    But would the NK people take up arms against the ROK military crossing North? As you point out yourself, the Koreans consider themselves brothers facing each other, not sworn enemies for all time. They call the Korean War "The Great Fratricidal Conflict."

    (BTW, if you've not visited the War Memorial yet, I recommend it. One of the more interesting military musea out there)

    NTM


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  • Registered Users Posts: 81,711 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    And a fine Memorial Day to you too, Mr. Moran. Or whats your rank again.


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