Article: Lenihan says house prices now at bottom

yop · 06-04-2010 4:02pm

average_runner wrote: »

all the parties are the same and dont fool yourself thinking they arent.

I am beginning to believe this also to be honest, I think they all sup from the same pot which the tax payer boils, even the opposition get big salaries and big perks.

I can't off the top of my head think of anything which the opposition have stood up for us of late and got pushed through. Even the 2 weeks holidays they barely murmured a call to not take the 2 weeks.

The opposition from what I can see are there for the theater effect, in essence dont do anything but have to be there.
They are as removed from reality as the muppets who are in power.

Liam Byrne · 06-04-2010 4:57pm

average_runner wrote: »

Ireland is not the only economy to of crash, so while some of it is FF fault not all of it is.

The extent of it is; they made it a million times worse, ignoring warnings, ploughing ahead with unsustainable policies, and "regulating" in a way that suited their mates, with absolutely no long-term goals!

Other countries are on their way out of their recessions.

average_runner wrote: »

FG destroyed Irish life in the 80's, ask anyone who went thru the 80's under FG. They did nothing for job creation, borrowed millions that we the tax payer paid back in the boom.

I went through the 80s, and while it was certainly tough enough, I don't remember it being anything like what you've outlined above......can you provide links/proof ?

average_runner wrote: »

Life is a funny thing but this is just history repeating itself, all the parties are the same and dont fool yourself thinking they arent.

History repeating itself, eh ? When's the last time anyone flushed 70-odd-billion down the toilet with absolutely no return ?

woodseb · 06-04-2010 5:02pm

Liam Byrne wrote: »

History repeating itself, eh ? When's the last time anyone flushed 70-odd-billion down the toilet with absolutely no return ?

when's the first time it happened?

it might help the discussion if you didn't resort to ridiculous hyperbole....

BigAl81 · 06-04-2010 5:17pm

From David McWilliams Facebook page within the last hour...

"Don't go near a house now. Prices will keep falling"

Funny, didn't hear Lenihan mention this ;o)
Go Team!

Oisintarrant · 06-04-2010 5:29pm

thebman wrote: »

I'm about the age people used to buy houses at in Ireland. Maybe even a few years past when people were starting to save "to get on the ladder".

I can count on one hand the number of people I know that want to buy a house in the next two years.

We make jokes about it sometimes. My circle of friends would all be earning enough to save for a deposit if they wanted to I think. Most are more concerned with saving money for other things.

Of course my circle of friends is a little peculiar to start with in that nobody in it ever took out a loan even during boom times.

Your not alone there bud. Im in the same boat, 27 years old, Id consider myself to have a lot of friends with a range of incomes from very high to pulling the dole, and I can only think of 1 who bought an apartment in Dublin, and another who is building a house in Kerry, a home for life which he has saved for since he was in college. (both the higher end of income).
The only way I can see any of this plateau'ing out is a nation of renters. And to be honest, Id have no problem with that. People need to get over the idea that they HAVE TO buy a house. Rent until you can afford it. Rent away for years, which will eventually pay off the dopes with their property ladders, and in 10/15 years when youve saved up say 1/3 or so your property value, then jump in with the banks. This is what I hear from friends and what I believe myself to be the popular opinion at my age.

jmayo · 06-04-2010 5:40pm

average_runner wrote: »

Before I say this i aint a FF

Ireland is not the only economy to of crash, so while some of it is FF fault not all of it is.

FG destroyed Irish life in the 80's, ask anyone who went thru the 80's under FG. They did nothing for job creation, borrowed millions that we the tax payer paid back in the boom.

Life is a funny thing but this is just history repeating itself, all the parties are the same and dont fool yourself thinking they arent.

Did you live through the 80s or are you just listening to some people talk about it ?
And I bet they were ff people at that.
FG/Lab might not have made much of a difference because guess what ff under haughey kept snapping at their heels and would not acknowlegde how deep a hole the country was in.

Secondly ff only make a difference after 1987 because FG led by Alan Dukes agreed to support the government if they made sensible economic decisions.
It finished his political career but it helped save the country.

Oh and for starters the economic destruction of the 80s was caused by a vote buying ff government under one jack lynch in 1977, which just goes to show what happens when ff get an overall majority.
Removal of household rates, car tax and the like screwed this country dearly.
To this day he has casued untold damage to local councils with his removal of household rates.

For some one that claims they are not ff your arguments sound like the ff bible, starting with the usual mantra of the world economy crashed, ff are not entirely to blame and ending with the old "sure they are all as bad as each other".
:rolleyes:

yop wrote: »

I am beginning to believe this also to be honest, I think they all sup from the same pot which the tax payer boils, even the opposition get big salaries and big perks.

I can't off the top of my head think of anything which the opposition have stood up for us of late and got pushed through. Even the 2 weeks holidays they barely murmured a call to not take the 2 weeks.

The opposition from what I can see are there for the theater effect, in essence dont do anything but have to be there.
They are as removed from reality as the muppets who are in power.

The big problem with our democracy is the whip system which means that FG nor Labour can't do a lot, once ff keep their backbenchers in line and ff lite (formerly known as the Green Party) and a couple of independents bought off.
They just do not have the numbers.
Thus they can't get anything pushed through as you put it.
Sometimes I think that they should ask the people onto the streets.
But it is a dangerous game to play if you are a democratically elected politican believing in the rule of law and order, and secondly maybe they know us Irish are very hard to unite behind anything that doesn't benefit us personally.

woodseb wrote: »

when's the first time it happened?

it might help the discussion if you didn't resort to ridiculous hyperbole....

But it is a rdiculous situation to find ourselves in, so maybe it does deserve some hyperbole.
Have you ever stood back and thought that we are committiing anything up to 70 billion euro into saving a financial institution that was morally bankrupt a long time ago, only lent to a few high net worth connected individuals primarily involved in construction, had only a limited number of normal customers and to most people was a non systemic institution ?
Look at the cost of saving IN. :mad:

Trying to rationalise spending that proportion of our GNP on these failed entreprise and trying to justify why every baby born in this country today comes into the world saddled with something like a €5,000 bill due to these failed entreprises is ridiculous to start with in my mind.

Liam Byrne · 06-04-2010 6:08pm

woodseb wrote: »

it might help the discussion if you didn't resort to ridiculous hyperbole....

I'm not sure how much "hyperbole" is even required when people are openly discussing €70 billion in the context of pumping €22 billion into Anglo and even the so-called "public service representative", Alan Dukes, hasn't got a clue whether that'll be the end of it, or whether we'll ever get anything in return for it.

With interviews like that on air from someone "in charge" then I don't think my post was hyperbole at all.

What if that €22 billion ends up at €30 billion, or €40 billion ? Will you accept my point then that the bulk of €70 billion has been flushed down the sewer ?

Because whatever return we might get to dilute what you call "hyperbole" is seriously at risk if no-one has a clue where this is going to end, combined with the fact that the more we put in the more we're tied into paying in more in order to get at least something back.

zootroid · 06-04-2010 6:33pm

average_runner wrote: »

Before I say this i aint a FF

Ireland is not the only economy to of crash, so while some of it is FF fault not all of it is.

FG destroyed Irish life in the 80's, ask anyone who went thru the 80's under FG. They did nothing for job creation, borrowed millions that we the tax payer paid back in the boom.

Life is a funny thing but this is just history repeating itself, all the parties are the same and dont fool yourself thinking they arent.

You're right, Ireland isn't the only economy to crash, but we are certainly one of the hardest hit economies. And while there is a global recession, not every country went into recession, Australia for example. And one of the reasons is that they have a well regulated financial sector.

Our problems are mainly home grown. Had we an effective regulatory system, counter cyclical economic policies (instead of FF trying to buy every election, in fact instead of FF trying to buy off every vested interest), and greater efforts to invest in infrastructure and remain competitive, the Ireland of today would be vastly different. We might not be borrowing billions to fund a huge budget deficit, nor to bail out the banks and developers. Our unemployment rate might not be around 13%. We actually might have had some reserves built up to create some sort of stimulus package to address what effects the global recession caused our economy.

With regards to your opinions on FG, I am too young to remember the 80's, I was born in 1981 so would not have been old enough to understand what was going on. But, if FG were a disaster in the 80's (and I'll leave that to others to debate), what member of the FG government in the 80's is a TD today? On the other hand, the FF TDs who made the disastrous decisions over the last decade are still in power, and as I view them as being ultimately responsible for the mess we are in today, I would not like to see them charged with getting us out of this mess. I am under no illusions that the next government will inherit huge difficulties, but I would much rather see a government formed that had nothing to do with the decisions that led us here.

Dannyboy83 · 06-04-2010 10:12pm

This is the way I see it:

If NAMA gets the banks lending again, we are close to the bottom. The real bottom, with some minor corrections down the line, but far less chaotic than what we've seen.

If NAMA is unsuccessful in restoring bank lending, it will continue to plummet, businesses will continue to close, and the economy will continue to crash.

Its that simple.
Without bank lending, we are fubar'd.

ei.sdraob · 07-04-2010 9:22am

"The report found that asking prices for residential property around the country fell by 3.4% during the first three months of 2010, the smallest quarterly fall in almost two years, according to the latest report published by property website Daft.ie. The national average asking price during March 2010 was €234,000, a total of €120,000 or 33% below the peak in 2007.

The fall in asking prices has again varied across the country. In Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and Cork, price falls were in line with the national average of 3.4%, while prices were closer to static in other counties, including Sligo and Roscommon. In Galway city asking prices were hardest hit, falling by 8.8% in the first 3 months of the year.

The length of time properties remain on the market increased slightly in the first three months and nationally the average time to sell a property is now 10 months. However, this may be a sign that long-standing properties are shifting. By the start of April, of the 3,000 properties listed for sale in January, one in three was either sold or sale agreed. The percentage marked sale agreed is twice as high in Dublin, where price falls have been highest since the peak and the total stock for sale continues to fall steadily.

Read the full report, including a commentary by Brian Lucey, Associate Professor at TCD School of Business, at www.daft.ie/report.

Kind Regards,

The Daft Team"

daft report is out people

Given that, what do we find? Is the crash over? Yes, if you live in NAMA-land, a country wherein the valuation of assets to be transferred has been set at their value as of end-November 2009. In the world wherein the rest of us live, the crash continues. House prices continue to fall, albeit at a slower pace than heretofore

ronanlyons · 07-04-2010 9:26am

The latest Daft Report is out this morning and finds that asking prices are still falling - 3.4% in the first three months of the year and one third on average from the peak so far. (Some more discussion over on my blog - good news being one in three properties posted for sale in January are now either sold or sale agreed.)

Its relevance here is that Brian Lucey, who provides the commentary to this Daft Report, believes that falling prices pose a significant issue for NAMA:

House prices have continued to fall since November 2009, the date chosen (why, on whose advice?) by Minister Lenihan as the valuation date for NAMA. Based on Daft.ie figures, house prices have fallen by a further 4.1%. Applied to a €50bn portfolio, that's a €1.5bn excess that will be paid over what would have been the case had the minister waited. Put it another way - the entire public sector pension levy has been squandered on a needless overpayment.

Prof Lucey also sticks his neck on the line with a call for the bottom not now, as the Minister has, but in 18 months:

So the crash is slowing. However, it is not over. The Daft.ie index peaked in May 2007. To expect the trough to be reached less than three years later is to fly in the face of historical evidence. Referring back to Morgan Kelly's prescient, eye-opening ESR article which for many of us represented the key moment when our critical faculties on property were rebooted, a fall of 50% is likely. Based on a straight line projection of average declines in value since the peak this would see another 18 months of declining prices. That would be 50 months of house price falls, or just over 4 years, towards the lower end of historical experience. It is probable that as we decline towards the trough, the speed at which house prices fall slows down. And this is what we are starting to see - in the last six months, the average decline has been lower than the previous six months, itself lower then the period before.

The total level of stock for sale on the market would certainly suggest that sellers face significant competition for buyers still:

(More over in the usual spot, www.daft.ie/report. Those who like data can check out a map of falls in asking prices by county on Manyeyes, the data visualization system.)

jmayo · 07-04-2010 11:02am

Anyone with an ounce of cop on can see no reason for prices to remain steady never mind rise.
All indicators point to a falling market.

increasing unemployment
unsure future with probable tax increases, decreasing salaries.
interest rates rising meaning more possible defaults
huge oversupply
banks not lending
if banks do start lending again sometime then there will be no 100% 40 year mortgages.
huge public spending cuts and national debt ramping up to pay for insolvent banks
increasing emigration of would be FTBs
immigrants leaving meaning decresing renters in market
huge negative sentiment towards property purchase
total mistrust of population in any pronouncements from vested interests and politicans

All of these lead to people just not wanting or being able to enter into the market.

Even though cost of living in certain areas is decreasing watch the effects of increasing oil prices.

IMHO as a non economist all indicators are pointing towards decreasing house prices rather than the drivel lenihan came out with.

letitroll · 08-04-2010 8:48pm

jmayo wrote: »

Anyone with an ounce of cop on can see no reason for prices to remain steady never mind rise.

All indicators point to a falling market.
increasing unemployment

unsure future with probable tax increases, decreasing salaries.

interest rates rising meaning more possible defaults

huge oversupply

banks not lending

if banks do start lending again sometime then there will be no 100% 40 year mortgages.

huge public spending cuts and national debt ramping up to pay for insolvent banks

increasing emigration of would be FTBs

immigrants leaving meaning decresing renters in market

huge negative sentiment towards property purchase

total mistrust of population in any pronouncements from vested interests and politicans

All of these lead to people just not wanting or being able to enter into the market.

Even though cost of living in certain areas is decreasing watch the effects of increasing oil prices.

IMHO as a non economist all indicators are pointing towards decreasing house prices rather than the drivel lenihan came out with.

Totally agree with the above every indicator points to falling prices and anyone else who tells you otherwise is either an estate agent or a home owner who hates the thought he wasn't the cute whore who made a bomb on property deals and shivers when he hears the word negative equity:

to add to it:

the public sector Ireland's biggest employer has implemented siginificant salary cuts along with the private sector and will shed numbers in the coming 2-3 years

petrol prices will reach the highest levels recorded in this country(with oil at only $80 a barrel) in the next two to three weeks. What happens when oil peaks near 2008 prices of $130 a barrel. Monopoly money petrol prices

result- the commute cost from the likes of Enfield, Virginia will bleed people dry, it always did but even more so in the future such Spoke towns are to far from the hub and have no industry or jobs to be viable

to date the banks have not forclosed in great numbers on those who are not paying their mortgages. NAMA is designed to create a properly functioning banking system, a properly functioning banking system forecloses on people who dont pay their mortgage how many people in Ireland are three months behind on payments. Answer: alot. Waves of firesales are yet to come.

Rent relief as it stands supports nearly 25% of landlords the rent relief payments are unsustainable and will be reduced. This socialised rental market will collapse and landlords will exit the market dumping properties adding to oversupply. New investor buyers will see little value in entering such a market a significant proportion of buyers who operated during boom years will not be a part of IRelands property market.

Remember the lesson from the dotcom bubble more people lost more money on the way down as they jumped back in thinking it had bottomed out.

Wudyaquit · 08-04-2010 9:14pm

letitroll wrote: »

Remember the lesson from the dotcom bubble more people lost more money on the way down as they jumped back in thinking it had bottomed out.

Couldn't agree more with all of that.

Brian Leninomics Lesson 1:
"Market equilibrium = where supply massively overstrips demand".

There's no way even this pleb could possibly believe this, so once again he shows utter contempt for the average Irish person and is quite happy for 1st time buyers to sign their futures away in the blind hope that it'll help NAMA and vindicate his misguided policies.

Given how the electorate have swallowed everything they've been told over the past 10 years, you can't blame him for trying.

letitroll · 08-04-2010 9:24pm

the great tragedy of all this is that the inflating another property bubble will be politically popular and a party that rescues people from negative equity could easily appeal to the Irish peoples property perversion

remember how rich people felt when they believed they were genuis investors when their house rose 15% in a year

http://www.theonion.com/articles/recessionplagued-nation-demands-new-bubble-to-inve,2486/

NUIG_FiannaFail · 08-04-2010 9:27pm

Now is a great time for 1st time buyers. Prices surely can't go any lower than they are now. Plus it would be great for the economy for people to start buying property.

donkey balls · 08-04-2010 9:31pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Now is a great time for 1st time buyers. Prices surely can't go any lower than they are now. Plus it would be great for the economy for people to start buying property.

lads did'nt a certain frank fahey say something along those lines:rolleyes:

NUIG_FiannaFail · 08-04-2010 9:35pm

donkey balls wrote: »

lads did'nt a certain frank fahey say something along those lines:rolleyes:

Yes but at the time no one knew how things were going to turn out. Things won't get any worse from here. The green shoots of recovery are already showing.

letitroll · 08-04-2010 9:44pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

The green shoots of recovery are already showing.

name your green shoots, our main market the EU's growth dipped below expectations in the last quarter

EU monetary union is crumbling

the euro is a defunct currency and hedge funds are lining up to short it

unemployment is only 14% much higher when you factor those doing what can only be called mickey mouse FAS courses and another huge cohort on part-time working hours

those unemployed have skills that are not transferable they were labourers, brickies they are not fit to press the ON button of the knowledge economy and will cost billions to upskill

the private debt burden never mind the public debt burden will smother domestic demand for years to come

Ireland Inc has done a great PR job dressing up our situation on the international markets but the reality is setting in Greek stye marches are around the corner as the public sector reacts to the new deal, Quinn Insurance and the weekly Anglo shock horror will continue

Brussels(our IMF) will dictate policy to us

donkey balls · 08-04-2010 9:45pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Yes but at the time no one knew how things were going to turn out. Things won't get any worse from here. The green shoots of recovery are already showing.

can you point this out to the 400k people not working at present,ah jaysus i know where these jobs are right here http://jobbank.fas.ie/servlet/Watis?SESS=52691_7&SERVICE=CRITERIUMBROWSE&TEMPLATE=WWW_JS_VAC_CRITERIUM_BROWSE.HTM&ROW=11&BACK=TEMPLATE%3DWWW_JS_VAC_CRITERIUM_OVERVIEW.HTM

and a few more from the toll roads that will be shortly in place thanks to minister Dempsey,i must say sweary mary idea of the fas wpp scheme was brill:rolleyes:

NUIG_FiannaFail · 08-04-2010 9:47pm

donkey balls wrote: »

can you point this out to the 400k people not working at present,ah jaysus i know where these jobs are right here http://jobbank.fas.ie/servlet/Watis?SESS=52691_7&SERVICE=CRITERIUMBROWSE&TEMPLATE=WWW_JS_VAC_CRITERIUM_BROWSE.HTM&ROW=11&BACK=TEMPLATE%3DWWW_JS_VAC_CRITERIUM_OVERVIEW.HTM

and a few more from the toll roads that will be shortly in place thanks to minister Dempsey,i must say sweary mary idea of the fas wpp scheme was brill:rolleyes:

When America starts to pick up we'll all pick up

letitroll · 08-04-2010 9:52pm

Fail - America has a debt burden beyond all imagination the years of America driving the world economy are gone

08-04-2010 9:53pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Now is a great time for 1st time buyers. Prices surely can't go any lower than they are now. Plus it would be great for the economy for people to start buying property.

dangerous advice:mad:

donkey balls · 08-04-2010 9:54pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

When America starts to pick up we'll all pick up

oh sweet jesus is that the best you can come up with,i did not study biz/accountancy in college but i have a working knowledge of it through my work more than some TD & Ministers.

fontanalis · 08-04-2010 10:06pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

When America starts to pick up we'll all pick up

I thought the line was that Ireland always follows England by 6 months! Either way ireland has always been a basket case and the US goes through cycles, so I don't know what your basing it on.

Wudyaquit · 08-04-2010 10:06pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Now is a great time for 1st time buyers. Prices surely can't go any lower than they are now. Plus it would be great for the economy for people to start buying property.

This is exactly why Herr Direktor wants us to believe it's the bottom - to lead some more lambs to the slaughter in order to help the economy. i.e. himself with NAMA and anyone with substantial property interests.

Blindly following this FF-serving rhetoric is what got us to where we are today - unfortunately for Lenihan, people have more sense now, and the market will decide when the bottom's been hit, not him. FF have lost all credibility and ruined too many lives for any sensible person to fall on their sword to help "the economy" based on nonsense not backed up by even the most basic economic reasoning.

yop · 08-04-2010 10:27pm

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Yes but at the time no one knew how things were going to turn out. Things won't get any worse from here. The green shoots of recovery are already showing.

JEebus, how many weeks did you spend in the FF "Brainwash camp" :rolleyes:

Green shoots!! For who exactly?

Please explain to us where these are because back here on Earth we are finding it hard to find them.

Not unless you are counting the daffodils which have popped up!

Head The Wall · 09-04-2010 8:26am

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Yes but at the time no one knew how things were going to turn out. Things won't get any worse from here. The green shoots of recovery are already showing.

Are you going to go guarantor on anyone buying a house now. You shouldn't have a problem doing so you're that confdent

The_Honeybadger · 09-04-2010 9:54am

NUIG_FiannaFail wrote: »

Now is a great time for 1st time buyers. Prices surely can't go any lower than they are now. Plus it would be great for the economy for people to start buying property.

FF Have you seen the trouble buying and selling houses has caused people in this country!! I can only assume you are taking the p**s, if not please entertain us with a basis for this ludicrous claim!

gurramok · 09-04-2010 10:10am

Did ye not hear lads?

Green shoots are coming from the mass forestry plantations, as we all know money grows on trees!

Article: Lenihan says house prices now at bottom

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