Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

Peyton Manning · 10-08-2010 4:19am #1

I'm going to be placing quite a few bets on the NFL this year after faring quite well last year, so I figured I'd keep a log of them all, and if anybody spots any good tips, then all the better for it! Hopefully I can help make people an extra quid or two! My scale (borrowed from Pyro's soccer bets is 1-5 pts, with 5 being what I think has the strongest chance of winning) and will start with a bank of 100pts.

I'm going to start with a couple of season long bets, that is, bets that won't be resolved until the end of the season.

3 pts - AFC East Straight Forecast - Jets/Patriots @ 3/1 (Boylesports)

I like to think that this bet shows that bias will not come into play for my bets. As you can see from my signature, I'm a big Patriots fan, but I just love the Jets for this season. I like them to get to the Superbowl, but we won't go into that because the Playoffs are a different monster altogether. I love what the Jets have done this off-season in drafting Kyle Wilson, picking up Antonio Cromartie and Santonio Holmes, and shipping out Thomas Jones to make Shonn Greene their number one RB. Greene is a huge sleeper this year, and I'd rank him as a top 5 RB come the end of the season. The only problem with the Jets is the Darrelle Revis contract situation, but I don't think the Jets will allow themselves to start the season without what could be the pound-for-pound best player in the NFL. My main threat to this bet is not the Patriots edging out the Jets for top spot, but rather the Dolphins edging out the Patriots for second. The Patriots have one of the toughest schedules this year, and that's even before you look at what's happened within their division. I still fancy them to edge out the Dolphins, but the fact that the Dolphins have added a top 5 receiver in Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby is enough to put a backup bet on here, and that is: 1.5 pts - AFC East Straight Forecast - Jets/Dolphins @ 6/1 (Skybet)

5 pts - AFC West Winner - Chargers @ 4/9 (extrabet)

They say there's no such thing as a sure thing in gambling, but trust me - betting on the Chargers to win AFC West is akin to printing your own money. The Broncos are the only real challengers, and the Chargers are still lightyears ahead in almost every department. The Broncos are now without their best player in Elvis Dumervil, who has been effectively ruled out for the season. They've lost Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins, and have a poor QB by starting standards in Kyle Orton. Even at 4/9, this bet is fantastic value and is as close to a sure thing as you can find in American Football this year.

1.5 pts - AFC West Straight Forecast - Chargers/Raiders @ 3/1 (Boylesports)

The Broncos are favourites to finish 2nd, but I'm not buying it. With last season in mind, Dumervil and Marshall are catastrophic losses. An important factor here is their run-in at the end, which is very tough. If it's looking like a foregon conclusion that the Raiders will take 2nd place, I can see Josh McDaniels taking his foot off the pedal to secure a higher draft pick the following year (if he'll still be in a job for that draft is another question). The Raiders meanwhile are more Jeckyll than the Hyde we're used to. Cutting JaMarcus Russell was the best thing the franchise has done in years, and a top class draft as cemented their forward progression. I fancy them to pip the Broncos to 2nd place.

1.5 pts - Rushing Yards Leader - Adrian Peterson @ 5/1 (Bet365)

Chris Johnson is the runaway favourite for this award, and going by last season, that's no surprise. But opposing defences will play extra attention to Johnson this year, and the Titans OL is marginally weaker than last year. Also, RBs who have eclipsed that magical 2000 yard post don't perform statistically as well the following year. Most of them fail to reach 1,500 yards in fact. More importantly, only three times since 1988 has the leading rusher in the league matched his previous year's total. Second in line is Peterson, who I just love. It's not a particularly "good shout" to tip Peterson - everyone knows he's sensational. Favre or no Favre, AP should post monster numbers this year, especially TD wise, if you fancy that bet, without Chester Taylor to take goalline carries away from him. 5/1 is very good value on this bet, but I'm only putting 1.5 pts due to my ongoing concern over RBs and their injury risks.

That's all for now. I'll be putting a couple of bets on next week's preseason action over the next few days. My usual advice would be to avoid preseason at all cost, but there are a couple of match-ups I like the look of regardless. More on that later

Bank: 87.5 pts
In Play: 12.5 pts

x PyRo · 10-08-2010 4:36am

Brilliant post mate, fair play. Hope it goes to plan, and it will.

Peyton Manning · 10-08-2010 4:38am

x PyRo wrote: »

Brilliant post mate, fair play. Hope it goes to plan, and it will.

Cheers mate. I'll be putting an added emphasis on bets for TV scheduled games, with the goal of increasing enjoyment of the game. I never enjoyed a SuperBowl as much as last year knowing the last few quid of my student account were at stake, and thankfully it came up trumps

So if anyone takes a tip on a televised game and they fall in love with the sport watching how that bet pans out, then brilliant!

I've borrowed your points format and general layout, hope you don't mind - it's very clear and precise so helps the layout of the post.

x PyRo · 10-08-2010 4:51am

Fair play, I love it when people put lots of thought into their bets! Kind of excites me. :pac: I wouldn't be a huge fan of the game by any means but I can watch anything I've money on and I'll certainly be following the single game bets. Writing out reviews for bets is the only way to make money in my opinion, I used to lose every cent I had before I put effort into it and now I always do it, apart from accumulators but they're only fivers and tenners.

Glad someone finds it useful! I like the mixture of colours in comparison to just making it bold, catches the eye! Keep up the good work, always enjoyed your posts in the soccer forum and I'll enjoy these even more. :pac:

skeleton_boy · 10-08-2010 5:12am

Very best of luck with the thread mate.

Plan on starting a nfl log myself just before week 1 of the season. So it'll be interesting to compare views and opinions.

Peyton Manning · 10-08-2010 5:19am

Completely forgot about another bet which ties in with the AFC West that I meant to post up.

4 pts - Regular Season Wins - Chiefs Under 6.5 @ 21/20 (Bet365)

I really don't know how the Chiefs spread here is as high as 6.5 games when the Lions and Raiders - both significantly better teams who will post better records this year - are 5.5. The Chiefs are going through a terrible time lately, and will be one of the worst, if not the worst team in the NFL next year. Matt Cassel can be a good Quarterback, but good is his peak. He will never be very good, or great, and he only achieved that peak behind a top Patriots offensive line. Put him behind the Chiefs OL - one of the worst in the league - and he sinks to well below average. As a matter of fact, who have they on offence at all? Jamaal Charles is a very good RB, but that's assuming he gets enough plays. He didn't last year, which was idiotic, and now he'll have to share with Thomas Jones who was made look a hell of a lot better than he actually is with the Jets last year. Dwayne Bowe is their only other playmaker, but that's kind of a non-point with an unprotected Cassel throwing the ball. Defence-wise, it says a lot that their best player is a rookie who has yet to play a game in the NFL. Eric Berry looks a terrific prospect, but how much of an impact can he have in a defence that was ranked the 3rd worst in the league last year? More to the point, how much impact can a rookie safety have against the defence that was 2nd worst in the league against rushing? Very little to none. Whatever about their running game, they just don't have enough to rise above 5 wins, let alone 6.5. 21/20 is amazing value.

Bank: 83.5 pts
In Play: 16.5 pts

UrbanSea · 10-08-2010 12:27pm

I love watching NFL,just didn't know enough about it to bet on it. Hope it goes well anyway.

El Horseboxo · 10-08-2010 1:25pm

Good stuff. I'll be a regular visitor here. The NFL has been my biggest income over the years in terms of gambling. And you hit the nail on the head about the televised games. Adds so much excitement when you got some cash riding on a game. A lot more than other sports in my opinion due to the start and stop and tactical nature of the sport.

Peyton Manning · 10-08-2010 11:53pm

Okay I'm going to throw up a couple of bets for Week 1 of Preseason. Bit of a disclaimer here frst though. As with any sport, preseason games in the NFL are unpredictable. I'd say they're more unpredictable to be honest. Whereas in soccer, managers are trying to get their team up to full fitness, in the NFL this is taken care of in training camp. Preseason games in the NFL are a chance to see how guys further down the depth chart handle themselves in a game situation, so first string players will only see a very limited number of snaps. Take the Detroit Lions a couple of years ago for example. They went 4-0 in preseason, only to finish the season as the only team to ever lose all 16 games. The best thing to look out for in preseason is coaching records. Obviously the strength of a team's depth chart is important, but looking at how coaches have historically treated preseason can be a big tell here. Given the above, my tips for this week are as follows:

Saturday 14th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Sunday 15th Aug)
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
2 pts - Winner - Houston Texans (-1.0) @ 11/10 (Boylesports)

The Texans are a solid pick for this game, and a big reason for that is the battle at the RB spot. Ben Tate, Arian Foster, and to a lesser degree, Steve Slaton all have a realistic case to be the starting RB in Texas - and nothing transcends into a strong preseason more than competition for starting places. On paper, the Cardinals would have a slight advantage with both Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson competing for the QB spot. Both will expect to get a decent amount of snaps, but by all accounts, Leinart has been very poor in training camp and Anderson has not fared much better. As for the coaches, this is where I really seperate the 2 teams. Ken Whisenhunt has the worst win loss ratio in preseason games for a head coach who has been in the NFL for more than 1 season, with 2-10 (a notable 0-4 in 2007 when Leinart was again the starting QB). Gary Kubiak on the other hand is a respectable 9-7. It's hard to look past a Texans win, but I'll give the Cardinals some respect by limiting my bet to 2 points and a spread of -1.0.

Saturday 14th Aug, 7:00pm ET (00:01am Irish Time, Sunday 15th Aug)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
3 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ 11/10 (Bet365)

Preseason or not, the Dolphins are vastly, vastly superior to the Bucs. Raheem Morris has very few playmakers in Tampa Bay, and will not risk injuring what he has. The Dolphins meanwhile have great strength in depth and are 9-1 in preseason under Tony Sporano - a coach who doesn't mess around at this time of year. It's a very straightforward and favourable bet.

Starting Bank: 100 pts
Current Bank: 78.5 pts
Points In Play: 21.5 pts
Total Bets: 8
Bets In Play: 8
Winning Bets: 0
Losing Bets: 0
Profit: 0
Profit %: 0

me-skywalker · 13-08-2010 4:09pm

Fantastic reading well done!!

Packers are 5/1 to win the NFC Championship on PP you think this is worth a good shot?

Peyton Manning · 14-08-2010 4:43pm

me-skywalker wrote: »

Fantastic reading well done!!

Packers are 5/1 to win the NFC Championship on PP you think this is worth a good shot?

Cheers. Those odds are about right to be honest, but Im not keen on backing against anything in the playoffs this early. This time last year, people had high expectations for the Packers, but it just didn't work out. You look at their roster, and you see talent all over the place, but unless they can protect Rodgers a hell of a lot better, they're not going to get the best out of him.

Personally, if I was contemplating putting a bet on the Packers to win the NFC, I'd go the extra step and put it on them to win the Superbowl. You'd get about 13/1 to if you look around. Having said that, I wouldn't bet on the playoffs this early.

Peyton Manning · 16-08-2010 12:04am

Ok so last nights bets did not come on. Dolphins won, were an agonizing .5 off making the spread, and the Cardinals trumped the Texans. Not too worried, betting on preseason is haphazard and only a bit of fun. Having said that, one more bet for tonights action

3 pts - Bengals (-3.5) to beat Broncos @ 20/23 (Bet365)

The Broncos are on their last legs, decimated by injuries and will be wrapped up in cotton wool. I just fancy the Bengals here at home.

I'll update my totals so far after this game (knowing my luck, Tebow will make a dream debut!).

Peyton Manning · 16-08-2010 4:55am

Lucky number three - my first success of this log! The Broncos started lively, but once the starters (Kyle Orton in particular) made way, the Bengals had their way and dominated the second half.

Saturday 14th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Sunday 15th Aug)
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
2 pts - Winner - Houston Texans (-1.0) @ 11/10 (Boylesports)

Loss returns 0 pts

Saturday 14th Aug, 7:00pm ET (00:01am Irish Time, Sunday 15th Aug)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
3 pts - Winner - Miami Dolphins (-3.5) @ 11/10 (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 pts

Sunday 15th Aug, 7:00pm ET (00:01am Irish Time, Monday 16th August)
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
3 pts - Winner - Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ 20/23 (Bet365)

Win returns 5.61 pts

That's preseason for you! Onwards and upwards

Peyton Manning · 18-08-2010 1:20pm

A few bets for the weekend, nothing too extravagant

Saturday 21st Aug, 8:30pm ET (1:30am Irish Time, Sunday 22nd Aug)
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
2 pts - Chicago Bears (-2.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Lovie Smith takes preseason seriously. The -2.0 spread was too hard to resist at 10/11 last night (it's now 5/13).

Saturday 21st Aug, 9:00pm ET (02:00am Irish Time, Sunday 22nd Aug)
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
2 pts - Detroit Lions (+3.0) @ evens (Bet365)

The Broncos capitulated against the Bengals once they pulled their starters. I envisage more of the same this week. Their injury problems are so bad that they pulled 17 players from training the other day just to be safe. Stafford, Johnson and Best looked in good shape for the Lions with the reps they got last week, they should have fun again in the first quarter this time round.

Sunday 22nd Aug, 8:00pm ET (01:00am Irish Time, Monday 23rd Aug)
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
2 pts - San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

The 49ers did well last week, and my decision not to bet on them bit me in the ass. I won't make the same mistake this week. Mike Singletary gets the best out of his team in preseason.

El Horseboxo · 18-08-2010 4:51pm

These pre season games are just too hard to call. Roll on Sept 19th.

TheTosh · 19-08-2010 9:08pm

I've been watching the NFL for years but haven't a clue about the betting but I'm interested in giving it go

Peyton Manning · 20-08-2010 10:15am

TheTosh wrote: »

I've been watching the NFL for years but haven't a clue about the betting but I'm interested in giving it go

What is it you haven't a clue about? How the spread (i.e. -3.5) works? Or just knowing who and what to back?

TheTosh · 20-08-2010 11:09am

The spread and points things like that, betting for me is going to William Hill and putting a fiver on a team/horse to win

heavyballs · 20-08-2010 11:54am

i always have a big e/w bet at the start of the season,i'm stuck between the Colts 8/1 and the Ravens 12/1 for the superbowl,what do you think?

Peyton Manning · 20-08-2010 1:13pm

TheTosh wrote: »

The spread and points things like that, betting for me is going to William Hill and putting a fiver on a team/horse to win

The spread is a relatively easy thing to understand, although some places overcomplicate their explanation!

Basically, if a team is listed at (-3.5), it means they are favourites to win, but for your bet on them to win they must win by more than 3.5 points. It's pretty much like them starting the game on -3.5.

If a team is +3.5, you're betting on them to either win the game outright, or lose by no more than 3.5 points.

If a team is listed at -3.5, their opponent will be listed as +3.5. It means pretty much the exact same thing.

The reason for the .5 is just that they have to win/lose by more/less than a field goal and it just narrows the scope for draws basically (there are far, far more games in the NFL won by a field goal than there are that finish a draw. If a spread was +3 / -3, a lot of your bets would end up as draws. This eliminates that as it's impossible for a team to score .5 of a point!)

Peyton Manning · 20-08-2010 1:17pm

heavyballs wrote: »

i always have a big e/w bet at the start of the season,i'm stuck between the Colts 8/1 and the Ravens 12/1 for the superbowl,what do you think?

Well they're both among the favourites to reach the superbowl, but having said that, there are about 8-10 teams who would realistically consider themselves contenders. Assuming Manning stays healthy which is likely, the Colts will always be there or there abouts. Personally, I think the Ravens will go far this year (my AFC Superbowl prediction at the moment is Jets, but that could easily be the Colts or Ravens). Value wise, the Ravens bet makes better sense. If you were to weight their chances, I don't think the Colts would be as much as 33% more likely to reach the Superbowl than the Ravens.

Peyton Manning · 22-08-2010 9:07am

Saturday 21st Aug, 8:30pm ET (1:30am Irish Time, Sunday 22nd Aug)
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
2 pts - Chicago Bears (-2.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Loss returns 0 points

Saturday 21st Aug, 9:00pm ET (02:00am Irish Time, Sunday 22nd Aug)
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
2 pts - Detroit Lions (+3.0) @ evens (Bet365)

Win returns 4 points

Peyton Manning · 23-08-2010 10:58am

Sunday 22nd Aug, 8:00pm ET (01:00am Irish Time, Monday 23rd Aug)
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
2 pts - San Francisco 49ers (-3.0) @ 5/6 (Bet365)

Win returns 3.67 pts

Peyton Manning · 23-08-2010 12:12pm

Unsettled Bets: 6
Settled Bets: 6
Wins: 3
Losses: 3

Total Points Bet: 14
Total Points Returned: 13.28

Peyton Manning · 23-08-2010 10:50pm

I'd prefer to wait a day or two to place this bet, but it's too tempting to pass up. I'll explain below.

Friday 27th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Saturday 28th Aug)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
4 pts - Winner - Philadelphia Eagles (0.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I'm a big fan of betting against the Chiefs, even in preseason. They've satisfied the spread both weeks so far, being trounced by the Falcons, and more positively for this bet, the Buccs (who also happened to be quite terrible). The Eagles haven't been overly impressive, but week 3 in preseason tends to be the week coaches want a proper look at their teams, with week 4 being a throwaway week due to wanting to avoid injuries and coaching eyes on the regular season. Plus, struggling to score against a Cincinatti defence isn't as damn-able as it once was - they've made huge strides themselves. I usually wouldn't bet over 3 points on preseason, and rarely even 3 points at that, but the lack of a spread here is too much of a temptation. It's likely to change during the week too, which is why Im jumping on this now. Andy Reid's record during preseason also trumps that of Todd Haley, week 3 games included.

Peyton Manning · 28-08-2010 4:26am

To those who say betting on preseason is pointless, I really hope you were keeping track of that last bet!

Eagles were trailing the Chiefs by 4, with 2 minutes on the clock and no timeouts left. Third string rookie QB Mike Kafka takes them 80 yards down the field in 1 minute and 40 seconds without spiking the ball once. Unbelievable stuff, I was literally out of seat screaming when they got that TD - woke up the whole house but who cares! What a hero, Kafka - I fúcking love you!!!!

:D:D:D

Friday 27th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Saturday 28th Aug)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
4 pts - Winner - Philadelphia Eagles (0.0) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 7.64 pts

Unsettled Bets: 6
Settled Bets: 7
Wins: 4
Losses: 3

Total Points Bet: 18
Total Points Returned: 20.92

Peyton Manning · 28-08-2010 5:42am

Still elated from that last-gasp Eagles win, so I've placed another couple of bets. First up is my first accumulator of this log. I'll place very few of these over the course of the season. Madness to do it on preseason, but if it makes the games half as interesting as it made tonights, it will be money well spent

Saturday 28th Aug, 9:00pm ET (2:00am Irish Time, Sunday 29th Aug)
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders

and

Sunday 29th Aug, 8:00pm ET (1:00am Irish Time, Monday 30th Aug)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

2.5 pts - Winners - San Francisco 49ers (+1) & Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) @ 2.64/1 (Bet365)

As mention in my previous bet, Gameweek 3 is basically the dress rehearsal for the opening regular season fixture. Mike Singletary treats preseason as if it were the Superbowl (slight exaggeration alert) and will expect his team to comfortably overcome the Raiders. 49ers have been kind to me in preseason so far so I'm going to stick with them again this week, especially with a generous spread of +1. Im going to lump the Steelers in with them too, partly because of the Broncos' injury woes, but mostly because of Mike Tomlin's almost flawless preseason record up against Josh McDaniels' disasterous one. At 2.64/1, this could be a lovely little earner.

Saturday 28th Aug, 5:00pm ET (9:00pm Irish Time, Saturday 28th Aug)
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
1.5 pts - Winner - Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

This one is slightly tougher to call. On one hand, the Browns went to Lambeau and beat the Packers. On the other hand, they got beat by the Rams on their own turf last week. Still, with it being week 3, I fancy the Lions because their starters will get more game time than they have in previous weeks. This means more of who I consider to be tied with Andre Johnson as the best receiver in the NFL - Calvin Johnson. He has 2 TDs in his brief cameos so far this preseason, I wouldn't bet against him getting another tomorrow. Both coaches have a similar preseason approach (and record) so Im counting on superior playmakers tipping this in the Lions favour.

Peyton Manning · 29-08-2010 1:32am

Saturday 28th Aug, 5:00pm ET (9:00pm Irish Time, Saturday 28th Aug)
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
1.5 pts - Winner - Detroit Lions (-2.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Win returns 2.86 pts

That's four in a row now, absolutely delighted with recent events. Browns started strong, but always looked a bit flat despite a solid performance from Jake Delhomme. However, Matthew Stafford was also looking very sharp, and a fantastic running game from the Lions stole the show in the end. If my double comes in tonight and tomorrow, I'll be over the moon.

I love this sport

Peyton Manning · 29-08-2010 1:56am

Saturday 28th Aug, 9:00pm ET (2:00am Irish Time, Sunday 29th Aug)
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders
2 pts - Double - San Francisco 49ers (+1.0) and Over 37.0 @ 2.57/1 (Bet365)

Just threw this little double on - the overs changed to 37.5 as soon as I did - too slow bet365! :P The Raiders are specialists at high scoring preseason games, so combining that with the 49ers no holds barred approach, Im hoping this one will pay off.

Peyton Manning · 29-08-2010 5:33am

Saturday 28th Aug, 9:00pm ET (2:00am Irish Time, Sunday 29th Aug)
San Francisco 49ers @ Oakland Raiders
2 pts - Double - San Francisco 49ers (+1.0) and Over 37.0 @ 2.57/1 (Bet365)

Win returns 7.14 pts

Over the moon with this. The Over (37.0) was pretty much sorted by half time with 31 points already on the board, but the 49ers were struggling in the second half. I was cursing David Carr at one stage, although granted his 2nd string O-line were not helping. Still, it paid off in the end - the Raiders' 2 minute drive at the end had me biting my nails (especially a ridiculous pass interference call) but alls well that ends well. That's 5 wins in a row, delighted! As mentioned a few posts earlier, I also had the 49ers to win this as part of a double with the Steelers to win tomorrow - so that game take on even more significance now. Should be exciting to watch!

Is anybody taking a punt on any of these bets, or are you avoiding preseason like the plague?

Unsettled Bets: 6
Settled Bets: 9
Wins: 6
Losses: 3

Total Points Bet: 21.5
Total Points Returned: 30.92

Profit: 43.81%

nkay1985 · 30-08-2010 12:50am

Going to give this a try for a while anyway and follow you Archie. You seem to know your NFL. I know nothing at all about it so it won't be a case of me second guessing whether you're right or not, just blindly following! Just hope Boyles has most of the bets you're on as I'm going to use that as my NFL account basically.

Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips Log

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