General Election - Feb 26th Megathread

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

3 years = years.

Within the lifetime of the government.

You deliberately played down the when and the how much.

Billy86 wrote: »

As you seem to be implying that Ireland had a miraculous natural increase of over a half a million in the last five years, which not only offset emigration but actually beat it out by hundreds of thousands (thus leading to a larger population but smaller total workforce, can you explain to me how our working age population (15-64) has increased by over 150,000 from 2011-2015?

Not only has the natural increase been way, way less than half of what you seem to be suggesting at around 210,000 from 2011-2016 (rather than 500,000+), but our working age population has gone up by roughly 150,000.

In 2011, Ireland's working age population (15-64) was 3,100,000, with an unemployment rate of 15.1% late in the year - that comes to about 468,000.

As of 2016, the working population (15-64) has increased to 3,250,000 and yet unemployment has dropped to 8.8%, the lowest it has been in seven years - that comes to about 268,000.

So allow me to correct my earlier post where I said "tell that to the tens and tens of thousands (if not over 100,000 by now) more adults in employment now than were in 2011." In truth, the number is nearly double that - an increase in the neighbourhood of 180,000 in employment.





Also before you or whoever else (because someone inevitably always does) bring up JobsBridge, horrible a scheme that it is, it typically accounts for less than 5,000 - so about 2.75% - of those 180,000.

What on earth are you going on about? Our population has not increased by 300,000 since 2011, it has increased by 60,000-72,000:
http://i.imgur.com/iTuHDzS.jpg
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2015/ (Table 1)

Where are you pulling the bullshít 'half a million' figure from above, which you attribute to me? Don't put words in my mouth, thanks.

Your working age population figures appear to be total bullshít - care to provide some citation for them?
http://i.imgur.com/Sz1CH2W.jpg
https://data.oecd.org/pop/working-age-population.htm

http://i.imgur.com/FsQ4uHO.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UkiBA-ZWZDw/VeNWsJYjZmI/AAAAAAAAZbY/lOGvSp434xM/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2015-08-30%2Bat%2B13.36.35.png
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/08/30815-migration-changes-in-irish.html


Your quote of an 180,000 increase in employment since 2011 is also disproved by Skylinehead's link and the CSO, which shows 140,000:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/employed-persons
http://i.imgur.com/GUIE2hK.gif

Your statistics are completely and provably fabricated lies, which you do not cite/source, and which totally/irrecoverably discredit you and all your arguments.


I would say that the sole purpose of all that nonsense, is to distract from the arguments criticising Fine Gael, and their terrible record of taking claim for a 'recovery' largely felt by better-off sections of the economy, on how they have little-to-no claim of success on employment levels (given that our 'recovery' is largely determined by external economic events), and by the utterly dismal emigration figures for Ireland, which make an absolute huge dent in our unemployment figures.

I guess we should congratulate the emigrants - rather than government - for doing so much to help the unemployment figures :rolleyes:

Jaylah Important Trailblazer wrote: »

This simply isn't true, either you haven't a clue about it or you are just guessing.

The list price doesn't change of you are buying for cash or going on PCP so for a start you are immediately wrong there, seconding you are make it sound like a scam that the plan is to trade up after the 3 years that's the who point in the first place. The aim is to get a new car every three years and if done correctly you can do it with little or no deposit after the fist deposit. You just keep paying the monthly amount. It's a very very good way to get a new car, just look at the repayment per month and the interest you would pay on a car loan in comparison with PCP.

Its a great way of keeping you in the maximum depreciation band, but I won't complain too hard because a few years after I might buy your car for a fraction of what you paid.

The list price doesn't change but you'll usually knock quite a few quid off if you buy outright (and don't bring them a hape to sell on)

RobertKK wrote: »

Sunday Independent poll shows FF are closing in on FG, and now just 4% behind.
FG 27%
FF 23%
SF 19%
Labour 6%
AAA/PBP 5%
SD 4%
Green 2%
Renua 1%
Independents are on 27% with 13% undecided.

Anyone know or guess how that might translate into seats?

LordSutch wrote: »

Anyone know or guess how that might translate into seats?

Afaik...their is actually aMaths formula for this...not sure of it off top my head

Seen it before (only roughly accurate as deosnt take into account local considerations)

Skye Enough Oak wrote: »

Latest Poll of Polls in bold above.


Oh, and yours comes to well over 100%.

Be curious to see would labour be out polled by the socialist party/ it's aligned AAA/PBP....this would be the first in a very long time if the case??

Zaph wrote: »

How is is disenfranchising people who don't live in the country? I certainly don't want the government of the country I'm living in decided by a protest vote from thousands of people who no longer live here. I appreciate that many don't live here any more out of necessity rather than choice, but what is there to be gained for those people by giving them a vote in a country they no longer live in?

I've mixed feelings on this one.

On the one hand I think like you, and wonder why someone who doesn't have to suffer the consequences should have a say.

On the other hand I see the entrenched "his family always votes / defends FF/FG/local parish pump muppet (delete as appropriate) as I wonder whether those who left in disgust or out of necessity looking in from abroad might have more luck in getting us decent governance for a change.