Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

darkman2 · 05-03-2008 7:40pm #1

Potentially stormy weather coming for Monday all the models seem to indicate. Its likely to turn very wet and extremely windy for a time. There is also the chance of some wintry weather aswell. It is going to turn very cold through Sunday and Monday.

Potential for disruption. Charts later....:)

kerry1960 · 05-03-2008 7:55pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Potentially stormy weather coming for Monday all the models seem to indicate. Its likely to turn very wet and extremely windy for a time. There is also the chance of some wintry weather aswell. It is going to turn very cold through Sunday and Monday.

Potential for disruption. Charts later....:)

stormy is never good news ....... spring still on hold then .

Supercell · 05-03-2008 8:35pm

Some proper weather here in the east would be nice, westies getting all the fun of late!

Snowbie · 05-03-2008 8:38pm

Now for the most terrifying chart of the decade. A 935mb monster:eek:
Ireland is under there somewhere.

Paddy.1 · 05-03-2008 8:45pm

Interesting Chart Snowbie, this one with the same time period from the ECMWF webside seems to be unaligned with that one you posted, or I am reading it wrong? I can't tell. This one here looks a lot less promising:

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008030512!!chart.gif

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008030512!!chart.gif

I may need to get glasses..

Snowbie · 05-03-2008 9:51pm

There similar Paddy

,
Follow the 980mb isobar, it brings it over SE UK on both and the 970mb isobar over our SE on both.
Also the two charts are ECMWF, one using different graphics to the other with your's showing the 850mb wind speed isotachs.

35m/s just off shore from you,that is just under 80mph.

Mothman · 05-03-2008 10:09pm

Paddy.1 wrote: »

This one here looks a lot less promising:

I think I'll be happier with something less promising :eek:

Whatever about liking stormy weather. I don't want sub 950mb near me, never mind a sub 940mb

darkman2 · 05-03-2008 11:20pm

Not just the winds though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

Steep thermal gradient and a definate snow risk in places.

Trogdor · 05-03-2008 11:28pm

darkman2 wrote: »

Not just the winds though

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.png

Steep thermal gradient and a definate snow risk in places.

Indeed, would be touch and go stuff
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

Supercell · 05-03-2008 11:39pm

Maybe some snow at the back edge very high up, very unlikely lower than about 500 metres apart from localised sleet.
Certainly nothing lying imho below about 800 metres.

That said many years ago ( about 25 years roughly) I remember in mid April a setup not unlike this gave pouring cold rain in Dublin and a couple of feet in the mountains (according to a delivery guy I was chatting to when collecting trolleys in Williams Supermarket in Killiney shopping centre) which then melted rapidly in the warm spring sunshine, I'd take that though.

I remember looking at the thermometer in the back garden and couldn't believe that it was pissing rain at 1°C, My ma told me to stop being so silly and help get the shopping in from the car

05-03-2008 11:47pm

Mothman wrote: »

I think I'll be happier with something less promising :eek:

Whatever about liking stormy weather. I don't want sub 950mb near me, never mind a sub 940mb

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
The storm probably will develop but it mightn't track near us or be as big/deep as is suggested now.
Chances of heavy snow at sea level from it would be poor to none in my opinion.
Theres too much mid atlantic mild muck mixed in.
So getting excited about that aspect of it is a waste of time too.

ninebeanrows · 05-03-2008 11:48pm

Longfield wrote: »

Maybe some snow at the back edge very high up, very unlikely lower than about 500 metres apart from localised sleet.
Certainly nothing lying imho below about 800 metres.

That said many years ago ( about 25 years roughly) I remember in mid April a setup not unlike this gave pouring cold rain in Dublin and a couple of feet in the mountains (according to a delivery guy I was chatting to when collecting trolleys in Williams Supermarket in Killiney shopping centre) which then melted rapidly in the warm spring sunshine, I'd take that though.

I remember looking at the thermometer in the back garden and couldn't believe that it was pissing rain at 1°C, My ma told me to stop being so silly and help get the shopping in from the car

GFS output at 18z does indicate snow for Ireland early Monday, right down to low levels

temps and dews indicate snowfall

rc28 · 05-03-2008 11:58pm

what kind of wind gusts would we be talking about if the worst chart (935mb) were to come off?

06-03-2008 12:06am

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS output at 18z does indicate snow for Ireland early Monday, right down to low levels

temps and dews indicate snowfall

Unreliable though-the best you can hope for is a sleety mess.I know you liked your snow shower the other evening but it was a fluke and how long did it last?
What you really need is a few inches and you ain't going to see that looking at the mish mash of an airmass involved here.

@rc28 - if that storm crossed the country at sub 950 - you would be looking at windspeeds well in excess of 80mph sustained and frequent gusts above 100mph.
Nasty-very nasty.

Paddy.1 · 06-03-2008 12:23am

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
.

Why? although it is unlikely to happen the way models are suggesting now, what is wrong with wanting the storm. I can't agree that it is "wreakless". I suppose each to our own.

Secondly, just because the pressure is 940mb, doesn't really mean anything. I remember about a few years ago a depression over Ireland of about 959 mb brought nothing but the usual moderate wind and rain.
(can't remember month or year, but maybe Mothman has some archieves).?

Gonzo · 06-03-2008 12:45am

I hope this turns out not to be nearly as bad as whats been said here, I like freak weather but not freak/bad winds coupled with cold and rain.

darkman2 · 06-03-2008 12:48am

Deleted User wrote: »

Agreed.
Getting excited about a 940mb storm bearing down on you is just plain wreckless.
The storm probably will develop but it mightn't track near us or be as big/deep as is suggested now.
Chances of heavy snow at sea level from it would be poor to none in my opinion.
Theres too much mid atlantic mild muck mixed in.
So getting excited about that aspect of it is a waste of time too.

BB I have to disagree with you here - every single potential frontal snow event is marginal and always has the same 'mish - mash' of airmasses. I like the 18z from a snow point of view but its only one run.

nacho libre · 06-03-2008 1:14am

it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Mothman · 06-03-2008 8:38am

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Secondly, just because the pressure is 940mb, doesn't really mean anything. I remember about a few years ago a depression over Ireland of about 959 mb brought nothing but the usual moderate wind and rain.
(can't remember month or year, but maybe Mothman has some archieves).?

23rd Jan 2001,
Belmullet 957.5 mb
Knock 958.1 mb

Highest gust of month 66mph at Malin Head.

With respect, there's a massive difference between 959mb and 940mb.

Your general point is right, its not the pressure, but the gradient, but we are very unlikely to have 940mb depression without a very steep gradient.

There is high pressure to south giving steep gradient to south of depression. It may be the case that this depression will track across Ireland pushing strongest winds off south coast.

It may take the usual track of staying off NW coast and the usual suspects (Belmullet and Malin head) getting the strongest winds.

If it tracks along north coast then the strongest winds will be across most of country.

The last major storm in my area was probably Dec 1999.

There was practically one a year during those times.

Snowbie · 06-03-2008 11:05am

Surprisingly, there is 4 models in agreement about this storm on Monday. However it is still 4 days away and the track can change somewhat.
Though most MET sites are hinting at the severe potential for Monday.
The track atm is forecast to move right in across the Northern half of the country with the strongest winds across the southern and western flank.

Snow will be also be an added feature with high ground at definite risk but low lying areas later as the 0c isotherm expected to below 500ft aswell as low 500mb heights.

Well worth model watching and watch this space as it is probably the most significant storm in years if this materialises.
Still possible downgrades and room for change.

Snowbie · 06-03-2008 1:29pm

Check out the giant spiderweb:eek:

darkman2 · 06-03-2008 1:52pm

The prospect of snow remains and by proxy with the strong winds blizzard conditions are possible. The 850 temps may not be that impressive but the 500mb temps are compensating on the runs atm

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=57561

So along with the storm if snow does fall this could be attrocious

nacho libre · 06-03-2008 1:59pm

Paddy, what pressure reading had the storm in December in 1996. I 'm asking because i recall a storm during the nineties that passed a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Belmullet and it was as low as 939. Perhaps that was it?

force eleven · 06-03-2008 2:43pm

Interesting read on the potential and I emphasise that word

for Monday courtesy of John Mason over at TWO.

http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/march08.htm

nacho libre · 06-03-2008 2:54pm

so, if it tracks further south than expected what sort of gusts are we talking about inland?

squonk · 06-03-2008 3:08pm

Thanks for pointing to that force_eleven! I normally get pretty excited about storms but I'm not really up for this one. It doesn't look god. High winds are great but if they're dangerously high, such that anyone can end up injured or even dead and not just people who were looking for touble inthe first place, then that's quite a different thing.

Gonzo · 06-03-2008 3:29pm

hope this doesnt happen or turns out alot less severe, I dont like damange or injurys caused by high winds.

06-03-2008 3:51pm

My spidey sense is saying no snow from this.
Ha edit I see someone else has posted John Mason of Torro's excelent analysis - no need for me to repeat the link.

It's unlikely to pan out like that 06z run but somethings up,something potentially dangerous but where,we shall see.

Paddy.1 · 06-03-2008 3:52pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Paddy, what pressure reading had the storm in December in 1996. I 'm asking because i recall a storm during the nineties that passed a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Belmullet and it was as low as 939. Perhaps that was it?

I actually don't have that information at hand Nacho, but will root it out next time I am in nuig. Calling on Mothman here again!! I think I remember that gale you are on about, specifically the blue lightning that accompanied it. I could be wrong about the time as well, but sounds about right.

Mothman, you are right of course about depth and gradients. I tend go with gradients though. I wasn't around at the time, but for those here who might remember "Debbie" in the early 60's, one of the biggest windstorms of the 20th century to hit our wee shores, pressure in the central low at the peak of the storm was around 970mb as it past over the Connaght area. It was the the gradient aftermath that caused great damage around the country.

06-03-2008 4:24pm

Yes on the gradient paddy1.
Mind you the models aren't short on tight isobars with their current fairly well agreed solutions-so the track is crucial and could be worrysome,very worrysome.

Are ye talking about the Xmas storms of a mid to late 90's?
I remember the main BBC news head story at the height of the first of those (one xmas and then the other was the following xmas) was 100,000 homes with out electricity in Ireland.

Snowbie · 06-03-2008 5:31pm

Snow be very marginal for the top 2/3 of Ireland if the core is to travel close to the North coast/into Scotland as indicated on the 12Z. The south coast would have the best shot of snow at low levels but mountains would do well out of this.

Also trailing this potent storm on Monday is another storm for Wedensday.FI but the jet streak is very active, so the possibility is 50/50 for the second to happen even this far out.

Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

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