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If Irelands votes no....

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  • 29-04-2008 5:22pm
    #1
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭


    ....will our EU masters

    a) tell us to vote again

    b) redraft the treaty and try again

    c) plough on regardless

    I suspect c.

    Pity there is no option to have a pole.

    Mike.


«1345

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    #2
    Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Moriarty


    Well, all states need to ratify the treaty for it to come into force, so it'll be impossible for our "eu masters" to continue as if we had voted yes. How do you define "plough on regardless" exactly?

    In answer to the broader question, I honestly don't know how things would go.


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    #3
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    mike65 wrote: »
    a) tell us to vote again
    b) redraft the treaty and try again
    c) plough on regardless


    In the case of c i would imagine there would be political unhappiness, which could cause anything from riots to Fianna Fail being raped in the local elections. And the European Union would lose all democratic cred. So I would imagine it will not happen. But who knows?

    With a or b I could not imagine the European Power brokers having the cop on to realize what regular Europeans actually want. In my opinion, they are far to caught up in their "Europeon Project" and are willing to trounce the values they claim to be founded* on (ie not having Euro wide referendums) when it suits them.
    Article 1.3 reform treaty wrote:
    The Union is founded upon the values of respect for democracy

    Where does only 1% of the population being allowed to vote fit into this?


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    #4
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    I suspect that some or all of the treaty would be redrafted and offered up again. How and when that would be done is anyone's guess.


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    #5
    Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Moriarty


    turgon wrote: »
    Where does only 1% of the population being allowed to vote fit into this?

    Allowing the idiots in the national partliaments to have sole control over when to call votes ;)


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    #6
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    turgon wrote: »
    I could not imagine the European Power brokers having the cop on to realize what regular Europeans actually want.

    So then, what do regular Europeans actually want? Please bear in mind that regular Europeans voted for the "European Power brokers".
    turgon wrote: »
    Where does only 1% of the population being allowed to vote fit into this?

    That's the choice of the various national governments, not the EU.


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    #7
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    IRLConor wrote: »
    So then, what do regular Europeans actually want? Please bear in mind that regular Europeans voted for the "European Power brokers".

    I personally think thats a poor argument. For example political parties voting Yes to the Lisbon treaty occupy over 96% of the Dail. Do you think the majority among the people is equal? Just because we vote for them doesn't mean we agree with every last thought in their minds.


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    #8
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    turgon wrote: »
    I personally think thats a poor argument. For example political parties voting Yes to the Lisbon treaty occupy over 96% of the Dail. Do you think the majority among the people is equal? Just because we vote for them doesn't mean we agree with every last thought in their minds.

    Well, the No vote is usually about 18% of the total electorate in EU referendums, so it's not badly out of whack. Only 90% of the Dáil actually consists of parties voting Yes, and 16% of our MEPs are advocating a No.

    If you think about it, if 51% of every TDs voters were in favour of a Yes, then 100% of TDs should vote Yes. You'd have to break down the figures on the voting record of Yes/No voters to get anything meaningful here.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #9
    IRLConor
    Subscribers Posts: 4,075 ✭✭✭IRLConor


    turgon wrote: »
    I personally think thats a poor argument. For example political parties voting Yes to the Lisbon treaty occupy over 96% of the Dail. Do you think the majority among the people is equal? Just because we vote for them doesn't mean we agree with every last thought in their minds.

    I think Scofflaw answered this better than I could.

    The implication of your post earlier was that you knew what "regular Europeans actually want", which was kind of the point of my question. What do they want in your opinion, how do you know and what in $DEITY's name is a "regular European" anyway?


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    #10
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Well, the No vote is usually about 18% of the total electorate in EU referendums
    If you think about it, if 51% of every TDs voters were in favour of a Yes, then 100% of TDs should vote Yes.

    Ok, well I dont know where you are getting 18%
    • Nice One: 64% against
    • Nice Two: 37% against

    And if 51% of every TD's electorate thinks Yes then it will be Yes in June and that is obviously the way it should be.

    My opinion is that the people running Europe (ie the Eu commission, council of ministers) are trying to create a USE. I believe this because the sovereignty of states is being gradually eroded by EU Treaties. I know you may debate this, but in fairness thins such as Common defense Pacts are hardly giving states independence form each other.

    Now from what ive heard this USE not what people really want. In fact I haven't heard of many in favor of it. I think there is a political elite in control (commission and euro civil servants) who are in control despite not being elected. And as such they're a bit distant from what people like my want and not held accountable.

    Plus French and Dutch voters clearly voted no to further cementing the Eu together back in 2004. But if you have a reasonable counter argument I will accept that.

    Admit idly "regular" Europeans is a bit of a ridiculous statement!


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    #11
    partholon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭partholon


    mike65 wrote: »
    ....will our EU masters

    a) tell us to vote again

    b) redraft the treaty and try again

    c) plough on regardless

    I suspect c.

    Pity there is no option to have a pole.

    Mike.


    thought b looks the most likey i can see c happening too as when denmark voted against the euro they were left to themselves for years, theyre only really taking about readdressing it again now. so if we vote no i can see the core pooling together more and more of their soverignty under the enhanced co operation rules. probably with much comment from our leaders talking about being "left out" which in the end wont have any real effect on us . just like in denmark.

    as to the "POLE" im pretty sure youd have to aske her permission before you could "have" her :)


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    #12
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    turgon wrote: »
    Ok, well I dont know where you are getting 18%
    • Nice One: 64% against
    • Nice Two: 37% against
    Out of what percentage of the electorate, in each case? In other words, what was the turnout?
    Plus French and Dutch voters clearly voted no to further cementing the Eu together back in 2004.
    What about those who voted in favour of it?


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    #13
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    turgon wrote: »
    Ok, well I dont know where you are getting 18%
    • Nice One: 64% against
    • Nice Two: 37% against

    18% of the electorate (at that time roughly 2,867,300, where the No vote was roughly 530,000). The figures you there are the percentages of the vote on the day.
    turgon wrote: »
    And if 51% of every TD's electorate thinks Yes then it will be Yes in June and that is obviously the way it should be.

    My opinion is that the people running Europe (ie the Eu commission, council of ministers) are trying to create a USE. I believe this because the sovereignty of states is being gradually eroded by EU Treaties. I know you may debate this, but in fairness thins such as Common defense Pacts are hardly giving states independence form each other.

    Now from what ive heard this USE not what people really want. In fact I haven't heard of many in favor of it. I think there is a political elite in control (commission and euro civil servants) who are in control despite not being elected. And as such they're a bit distant from what people like my want and not held accountable.

    The problem I have there is that the people you've fingered as the villains (the "people running Europe") are the same people as the governments of the "independent, sovereign states".

    Becoming part of any group necessarily involves giving up a certain amount of independence. If you go on holiday with friends in order to get a better deal, you can't decide to go at a different time from them.

    So, you need to distinguish between that, and giving up independence because you are forced to. In the holiday analogy, that is the equivalent of your boss telling you that you can only go on holiday at a particular time.

    Quite a lot of people appear to be under the impression that Ireland is 'forced' to give up independence to the EU. That is, frankly, not possible, since the EU only exists by virtue of the desire of the member states, including Ireland, to pool sovereignty in order to achieve better results than is possible as 'ourselves alone'. We can leave at any time. For those reasons, the idea that the EU is some kind of equivalent to the US federal state is a non-runner.

    Further, in our case, because sovereignty in Ireland is explicitly vested in the people, we 'the people' have been asked in every single instance whether that's alright. Thus far, we have, with appropriate safeguards, said yes.
    turgon wrote: »
    Plus French and Dutch voters clearly voted no to further cementing the Eu together back in 2004. But if you have a reasonable counter argument I will accept that.

    Actually, the French and the Dutch, like voters here, voted for a very wide variety of reasons. People here are voting No to give the government a kick in the teeth (so much so that Bertie is stepping down), or because of VRT, or water charges, or half a hundred other reasons that don't have any actual bearing on the Treaty they're voting on.

    So to say that the French and Dutch "voters clearly voted no to further cementing the Eu together" is not plausible at all, since it is not at all clear that that's why they voted as they did.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #14
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Alright lets forget about this 18% of the electorate. If some people arent going to be bothered voting and involving themselves in our democracy then I see no reason to include them in stats. You could just as easily say that the yes votes accounted for only 33% of the electorate (in nice 2). So lets forget about that.

    Now going on about reasons why they voted No (vrt etc) is equally implausible. Some guy could have just gotten engaged and in his ultimate optimism gone and voted Yes. Trying to discern the reasons people voted is far from relevant. All that matters is the overall result.

    Now before I continue I am going so set the record straight (cause you seem to think Im some sort of EU hater!). I really think the EU is brilliant, in fact one of the best ideas in European History. Peace and economic security are all great. If Ireland was planning to pull out id be protesting to stay in.

    I just feel the EU has reached the peak of it success. Shengen area - Great. Euro - even greater!!!! But heading into closer political ties - no thank you. The leaders of the EU aren't 100% accountable. Commission - non elected. Council of Ministers - not accountable for EU issues alone (ie will not be judged on EU issues alone). Parliament is great and all but not that powerful.

    So they are kinda given free reign to do most things. I dont know if im making myself that clear :o


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    #15
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    turgon wrote: »
    Alright lets forget about this 18% of the electorate. If some people arent going to be bothered voting and involving themselves in our democracy then I see no reason to include them in stats. You could just as easily say that the yes votes accounted for only 33% of the electorate (in nice 2). So lets forget about that.

    Now going on about reasons why they voted No (vrt etc) is equally implausible. Some guy could have just gotten engaged and in his ultimate optimism gone and voted Yes. Trying to discern the reasons people voted is far from relevant. All that matters is the overall result.

    Now before I continue I am going so set the record straight (cause you seem to think Im some sort of EU hater!). I really think the EU is brilliant, in fact one of the best ideas in European History. Peace and economic security are all great. If Ireland was planning to pull out id be protesting to stay in.

    I just feel the EU has reached the peak of it success. Shengen area - Great. Euro - even greater!!!! But heading into closer political ties - no thank you. The leaders of the EU aren't 100% accountable. Commission - non elected. Council of Ministers - not accountable for EU issues alone (ie will not be judged on EU issues alone). Parliament is great and all but not that powerful.

    So they are kinda given free reign to do most things. I dont know if im making myself that clear :o

    Clear enough that you're drawing attention to one of my major reasons for voting Yes, which is the major extension of the power of the Parliament to accept/reject legislation (called 'co-decision'). In the long run, I think that, coupled with the reduction in the Commission, is a big step in the right (democratic) direction.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #16
    PHB
    Registered Users Posts: 20,617 ✭✭✭✭PHB


    If Ireland votes no, there's no way we'll be asked again. Ultimately it will make Europe look long and hard about its future and why its so unpopular, and fundamentally they'll realise the best way to get support for Europe is to bloody talk about Europe, not hide and duck and do things in the background.

    That said, I think it'll pass, quite easily too.


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    #17
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Clear enough that you're drawing attention to one of my major reasons for voting Yes, which is the major extension of the power of the Parliament to accept/reject legislation (called 'co-decision'). In the long run, I think that, coupled with the reduction in the Commission, is a big step in the right (democratic) direction.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw

    Yeah I agree, but why didnt the Eu give us democracy in the first place? Now to get democracy we also have to further the EU project, which unfortunately I don't want to further, which Is why I vote no.


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    #18
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    turgon wrote: »
    Yeah I agree, but why didnt the Eu give us democracy in the first place? Now to get democracy we also have to further the EU project, which unfortunately I don't want to further, which Is why I vote no.

    Well, each Treaty has both extended the scope of the EU, and increased the democratic accountability of it - that's the theory, anyway, and it's not too far from the practice, although the exact amounts of each vary. This Treaty, I would say, represents the slightest extension of the scope of the EU (no new exclusive competences, a fairly short list of QMV areas) for the maximum extension of democracy (big extension of co-decision, formal objection mechanism for national parliaments, citizens' initiative) of all the treaties I've seen (this is the fifth).

    I sometimes wonder if that's why this one is being so bitterly opposed - both because it's the last planned treaty for the while, and because it would increase the legitimacy of the EU by reducing the 'democratic deficit'.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #19
    turgon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭turgon


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    I sometimes wonder if that's why this one is being so bitterly opposed - both because it's the last planned treaty for the while, and because it would increase the legitimacy of the EU by reducing the 'democratic deficit'.

    Well this wouldn't be ht reason I would be voting no - but I never thought of it this way! What you are saying is that EU-skeptics (ex sinn fein) are afraid this will make the EU better and thus their grounds of opposition weaker. Interesting theory.


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    #20
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    turgon wrote: »
    Well this wouldn't be ht reason I would be voting no - but I never thought of it this way! What you are saying is that EU-skeptics (ex sinn fein) are afraid this will make the EU better and thus their grounds of opposition weaker. Interesting theory.

    I'd argue that they are against it because there is a decent number of people (just under a fifth of the electorate perhaps? not that big a number anyway) who are Euro-sceptic by default and they are very much playing to that crowd. Sinn Fein as usual are playing to a particular part of the electorate, and most likely will do it quite effectively since they are pretty well entrenched there. The problem is that when most of their arguments are examined, they aren't true or are distortions of the truth but if you're Euro-sceptic by default almost any reason will do. (I'm over-simplifying here)

    Some of the "Yes" claims about a no vote meaning that we'd be kicked out of Europe or that it would cripple Foreign Direct Investment are equally fanciful, but again they're playing to the other side who just want any reason to vote yes.

    Both extremes are just playing to their sides at the moment, the issue is that a very substantial number of people fall into neither camp and who are genuinely confused by the very conflicting messages being spread by both camps.


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    #21
    partholon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 198 ✭✭partholon


    ya dont think the answer might be in the name of the party? :D


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    #22
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    I'd like to see a NO vote as a way of testing to see if the democratic deficit is real or imagined.

    Mike.


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    #23
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Meaning what?


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    #24
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    What you you think I mean? Self explanatory I would have thought.

    Mike.


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    #25
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Obviously not, or I wouldn't have to ask. Humour me.


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    #26
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Would the views of (for the sake of argument) 50.01% of 50 % of the voting population of a state of 4.2 million which has taken far more from the EU then it has given back be taken at all seriously?

    Mike.


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    #27
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    I'm still not certain what you mean. If Ireland votes no, Lisbon can't be ratified. What happens next is anyone's guess.


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    #28
    dresden8
    Registered Users Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭dresden8


    Minor changes, throw us a bone over something small and then make us vote the right way again.

    We've been here before, don't you people not learn from experience? Are you all insane?


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    #29
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Are you here to engage in discussion or to call people names?


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    #30
    dresden8
    Registered Users Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭dresden8


    Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

    - John Dryden

    Should have explained the quote properly.


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    #31
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    dresden8, that really did not need explaining, unless one is a pedant/overly literal. ;)

    Mike.


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