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Israeli-Palestinian Conflict - Interesting Statistics

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  • 11-06-2003 2:18pm
    #1
    Posts: 0


    I'm not really trying to create another thread to argue about which is in the right or not.

    Below is a link, that i haven't seen posted here so far.

    http://www.ict.org.il/articles/articledet.cfm?articleid=439

    Gives a very interesting read into the actual casualties incurred during the period of Sept 2000 to Jan 2003.

    I'd advise anyone that has an interest in this conflict to have a good look at the statistics. It might bring home a few truths about both sides.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    The site makes a lot of references to how statistics can be wrong, but then fails to back it up with any evidence what-so-ever.

    For example, peoples names being similar. Doesn't cite any of the incidents that he has factored into his graphs.

    His answer is...
    We have made extensive use of mainstream media outlets, both in Israel and abroad, for the details of al-Aqsa conflict incidents. Information on Palestinian casualties has been gathered from Arabic-language newspapers, cross-correlated with reports from human-rights organizations in Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Unfortunately, these sources generally disagree on many significant details, including the name, age, and circumstances of death of victims. It should be noted that, since no Israeli official body has been keeping records of Israeli actions and their results, the information reported by the Western media has come almost exclusively from Palestinian sources.

    Yet a palestinian site that I posted before cited UN/Red Cross and a whole range of other places where they got thier figures from.

    I'm not saying he's full of ****. But if he is to be believed he has to quote exactly where he got his figures from so they can be checked.

    He should also be taking into account the number of non-Israeli/Palistinians killed by either side.

    Here's the two I found.

    http://www.us-israel.org/jsource/Terrorism/victims.html
    http://131.103.199.78/statistic.htm

    Both quote actual sources, if you want to go check them up.

    Also looking around the site you posted it is a very pro-israel site.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,038 ✭✭✭✭Sparks


    Also looking around the site you posted it is a very pro-israel site.

    That's an understatement. From the site's own page on the people involved:
    Board of Directors
    Shabtai Shavit_ Chairman, Board of Directors, former director of the Israeli Intelligence Agency (Mossad)_

    Uriel Reichman President of the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya_

    Aharon Scherf Former director of Israel’s Foreign Affairs Division and senior official in prime minister’s office

    Board of Trustees
    Avner Azulai
    Executive Director, The Rich Foundation

    Professor Amatzia Baram
    University of Haifa and Georgetown University,_ Associate Professor of Middle East History, and former Chairman of Department of Middle East History, Haifa University

    General (Ret.) Yanush Ben-Gal
    Chairman of the Board of Directors, Israel Aircraft Industries_

    Ron Ben-Ishai
    Military Correspondent, Israel Channel 1 TV

    Colonel (Ret.) Eliezer Cohen
    Captain, El Al Airlines_

    Amir Eli
    Director General, Youth Aliya Institutions, the Jewish Agency_

    General (Ret.) Shlomo Gazit
    Assistant Chairman, Center for Special Studies. Former Head of IDF Military Intelligence and co-ordinator of Government operations in the Administered Territories_

    Carmi Gillon
    Israeli Ambassador to Denmark._ Former Head of General Security Services_

    Dr. Amnon Goldberg
    Partner in S. Horowitz & Co. Law Firm_

    Michael Gurdus
    Israel Broadcasting Authority - Correspondent_

    Michael Kahanov
    General Manager, Brinks (Israel) Ltd._

    Professor Ariel Merari
    Director, Political Violence Research Unit._ Founder and Former Head of Hostage Negotiation and Crisis Management Unit, Israel Defense Forces_

    Dr. Yossi Olmert
    Expert on Middle Eastern Affairs_

    Rafi Peled
    Former Commissioner of Police_

    Brig. Gen. (Res.) Yigal Pressler
    Former Advisor to the Prime Minister on Counter-Terrorism

    Colonel (Ret.) Nahman Shai
    Chairman, Israel Broadcasting Authority._ Former IDF Spokesman_

    Zeev Schiff
    Military Commentator, "Ha'aretz"_

    Gad Yaacobi
    Chairman of the Board of Directors, Israel Electric Corporation_

    Major General (Ret.) Eli Zeira
    Former Director of Military Intelligence, IDF

    Now, do any of those people look like they would be pro-Israel at all?
    :rolleyes: *sheesh*
    Why don't you just quote Mossad as an impartial source?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,580 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    What is significant in all these comparisons is, again, the contrast between the randomness of the pattern of Israeli fatalities and the more non-random distribution of Palestinian deaths. The random distribution is typical of terrorist attacks, which, though sometimes carried out in places frequented by young people, e.g. the Dolphinarium disco attack, may equally target restaurants or buses which are used by a wide spectrum of the population. Some of the most frequent targets of Palestinian terror attacks, such as open-air markets and public buses, are used disproportionately by the most vulnerable segments of society: women, the elderly, and the poor.

    >The fact that Palestinian deaths caused by Israeli actions do not, as a rule, follow the same pattern would seem to undermine claims that Israel deliberately targets Palestinian civilians. <

    Thats what the author is saying, in conclusion at least. A fair point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,038 ✭✭✭✭Sparks


    Sand, the point is invalid. The difference in patterns is caused by the fact that the IDF is a well-funded, well-equipped military force, while Hamas is more comparable to an irregular force in terms of funding and equipment. You hit the target that maximises both their damage and your survivability - that's the rule that all these people operate on.

    And before I hear the obvious comeback, I don't accept that you can classify Hamas as a terrorist group unless you also classify the actions of the IDF in Gaza and Jenin as terrorist actions. (That said, I deem both groups to be morally reprehensible).


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    And then theres the spectacle of an Israeli gunship attack in an attempt to take out Hamass's leadership, when a peace process is supposed to be starting...
    kind of obvious , that wouldn't be helpfull, and kind of glare-ingly obvious that the order for such action had the de-railing of the process in mind....bringing on todays predictable response.

    Tit for Tat.
    Childish,irresponsible, immature behaviour.
    As with all sworn enemies, you want patience, a whole mediterranean full of it.
    mm


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,712 ✭✭✭davelerave


    what a load of bo*&x that article is


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,779 ✭✭✭Ping Chow Chi


    I have to agree with dave there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,136 ✭✭✭Bob the Unlucky Octopus


    That study is complete crap, just look at the guy's sources for a start and then at the site's contributors. Three of those are even PNAC members for god's sake- they have a vested interest in seeing a policy of assasinations continue under the guise of fighting terror. Criminals, even the most terrible serial murderers deserve their day in court in any civilized society. Not only did the Israeli government fail to charge Ratisi with a crime, they decided to act as judge, jury and executioner to kill a *spokesperson* for Hamas. That'd be the equivalent of trying to kill the dude who makes Osama's audio tapes- it makes no military or intelligence sense, and it is calculated to terminate intra-Palestinian negotiation and inflame a delicate situation.

    Here's the other dilemmna- by openly adopting a policy of assasination, the Israeli government has just made its officials targets. Israeli politicians were largely left alone by the Palestinian militants, I strongly suspect that will now change, and we will soon be in a confrontational situation almost impossible to de-escelate from.

    Oh, and since we're discussing the moral clarity of sources, I thought I'd provide one of my own- a New York pastor writing in an Arab news source:

    http://www.amin.org/eng/uncat/2003/jun/jun10.html

    Biased as it is, I suspect it is far more evenly argued and fundamentally less flawed through its bias than the article quoted in the first post. That was full of loaded terminology, had suspect sources at best, and was calculated to defend the idea of collective punishment. Similar such 'studies' were carried out by the National Socialist party in Germany half a century ago, setting out to show that Jews were to blame for all Germany's ills- as much as such a study is meant to show people of conscience that Palestinians are to blame for their own plight. If lessons from history mean anything, it should teach us that objective clarity supercedes moral or political baiting when tackling a controversial statistical issue. Heck, why don't I pay a visit to the Hamas website and see what they have to say about it- think any studies they have there might be biased at all?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    Originally posted by Sparks
    Sand, the point is invalid. The difference in patterns is caused by the fact that the IDF is a well-funded, well-equipped military force,

    I thought the difference in patterns was due to the person sexing up the graphs with invalid (opps sorry not substaniated) data.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    I saw that we got a number of "hits" from this forum, so I took a look to see what people were saying about our study. As the response has been generally negative - and, in my opinion, for incorrect reasons - I wanted to try to correct a few mistaken impressions.

    1) Yes, we're an Israeli institution. To some, that will automatically damn us as some form of biased propaganda mouthpiece. This is not correct. We are an independent academic institution, and are not funded by the Israeli government or any of its security agencies. While many of our senior staff have a background in the Mossad, the General Security Service (a.k.a. Shin Bet), or Military Intelligence, this is pretty much de rigeur for any research institute in the field. American researchers in the subject tend to be ex-FBI, ex-CIA, and so on; and the same is true for counter-terrorism experts anywhere else in the world.

    I personally do not have a "security" background; I haven't even served in the IDF. I'm originally from the U.S. (with a degree from the University of Pennsylvania, if anyone cares), and lived in Hong Kong and England for several years each before moving to Israel at the age of 37. (I also used to get to Dublin rather frequently, as AIB was one of my company's clients - if anyone wants to convey my regards to Noel McHugh and John Keegan, I'd appreciate it!)

    The "al-Aqsa Intifada" Database Project is "my baby". My intention from the beginning was not to whitewash Israeli actions in the course of the conflict, but to gather and present accurate information. Of course, I can be attacked ad hominem as an Israeli and a Jew. However, before going too far with this approach, you should consider: What other data is out there? There are no teams of Trinity College researchers over here checking ID's. The only people reporting this information are Israelis and Arabs. That means that if you're going to dismiss either side's reports simply because of a priori bias, you might as well not bother discussing the subject. There is no information available that is not coming from one side's partisans, or those of the other side. (This is a bit like a marital argument: have you ever wished for a videotape of what you said and what your spouse said, and an impartial judge to view the tape and decide who was right?)


    2) The most interesting conclusions of our work (in my opinion) are those involving the demographic character of the fatalities on both sides. If you check out statistics published by Palestinian organizations, you'll find that while they are rather quiet about it, their numbers aren't very different from ours. The main difference is that Palestinian sources throw around the term "civilian" a lot - a term which, for reasons I explain at length in "An Engineered Tragedy", is highly deceptive in discussing asymmetrical conflicts.

    In short, I don't think you'll find any really problematic discrepancies in our statistics; but please don't take my word for it.


    3) None of you seem to have gotten to the end of the study, where (among other things) I provide a link to our database query screen. Unlike anyone else who has published statistics on the "Intifada", we have made our database available for inspection. You can check on any incident from the beginning of the "Intifada" until the most recent database update (it's updated on the server every few days, normally). Each incident includes a note on the sources of our data. Should anyone find any incident or casualty that s/he believes we've mis-categorized, we are happy to make corrections.

    In short, we've tried to conform to the best scientific standards in this study. I'd be very happy to hear of any actual problems in our data or methodology, since this would give me the opportunity to correct mistakes. Sadly, many have complained about our supposed bias, but almost nobody has come forth with any actual mistakes or misrepresentations we've made.


    4) The point someone brought up about the relative capabilities of the IDF versus the various Palestinian forces seems irrelevant. Yes, the IDF has superior weaponry; but why would that have anything to do with the fact that the overwhelming majority (95%) of Palestinian fatalities have been male, and a very substantial majority of these have been between 12 and 29 years of age? In fact, when Israeli forces use their heavier weapons, the resulting fatalities should be more demographically balanced, not less.

    As an example (and I haven't published this part of the research yet, so you're getting a free preview), look at the "collateral damage" caused by Israeli "targeted killings" of terrorists - such as the six or seven innocent Palestinians killed by Israeli missile strikes Tuesday and Wednesday. Females represent about 30-35% of these fatalities, while they represent only about 7% of the noncombatant Palestinians killed by Israel in other incidents. (Similar numbers hold for young children.) This shows that when heavy weapons are used and Palestinians are killed just for being in the wrong place at the wrong time, the demographics are completely different from the overall demographics of the conflict.


    I'd welcome any further comments on the study. While I think we've done (and are doing) a pretty good job so far, improvement is always possible; but it's very hard to recognize the flaws in one's own thinking without others to point them out. Unfortunately, it appears that there will be adequate time to improve the methodology before the conflict ends and the whole thing becomes moot.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,731 ✭✭✭DadaKopf


    Shalom!

    I didn't even bother reading the study yet but I'll just say one thing (and get back to reading it later): though we mightn't like them, data arising from intelligence agencies are usually very reliable because it's in each state's own best interests to collect and collate the best available intelligence.

    I'm not commenting on this guy's site but one obvious recent example is repeated attempts by the CIA to adjust the discrepancies and exaggerations made by intelligence agencies closer to the White House (i.e. the Iraqi National Congress and other various Washington Think Tanks).

    Anyway, statistics can *never* be entirely disinterested. Somewhere down the line, they're going to get warped. Just a point I've realised.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    Where is your database Query link? I didn't see it?

    The only thing I found was listing of terrorist attacks and then only by one side.

    So there is bias on your site.
    I can be attacked ad hominem as an Israeli and a Jew.

    I'd prefer if you weren't. I don't equate that all Israeli's are evil just because I believe what is going on in Palistine is wrong (in the same way I don't believe all Palistinians are terrorists).
    The only people reporting this information are Israelis and Arabs. That means that if you're going to dismiss either side's reports simply because of a priori bias,

    However that is what you do on your site. You dismiss figures from the other side. Which is fine but you should list off exactly what deaths your claming as not real.

    And list your sources. There are not only just two sides reporting the story. There are numerous sides. You can get information from Red Cross/UN workers (from various departments).

    Or if you want to do a good system. Put names to the statistics for both sides. Show what each side is loosing in the conflict and the far reaching effects of both sides actions.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    1) From the very end of "An Engineered Tragedy":

    NEW! We now also offer an up-to-date Israeli/Palestinian Conflict Statistics page with the latest totals from our database, as well as a full database query function for viewing "Intifada" incidents and casualty data. You can access all these features through ICT's Arab-Israeli Conflict Page.

    ( http://www.ict.org.il/ARAB_ISR/main.htm )


    2) Direct links:

    Current statistics: http://www.ict.org.il/casualties_project/stats_page.cfm


    Database query screen: http://www.ict.org.il/casualties_project/incidentsearch.cfm



    I'll discuss your other points separately.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Typedef


    Originally posted by Don Radlauer
    None of you seem to have gotten to the end of the study, where (among other things) I provide a link to our database query screen. Unlike anyone else who has published statistics on the "Intifada", we have made our database available for inspection. You can check on any incident from the beginning of the "Intifada" until the most recent database update (it's updated on the server every few days, normally).

    Perhaps it is the fact that you seem to be exponenciating a socio-political view, however subtle and using statistics as a validator for said inferred view.

    Even the terminology you use to describe the 'conflict' is itself explicitive of this subtle attitude, you don't call the 'conflict' an intifiada, for the reason
    http://www.ict.org.il/articles/articledet.cfm?articleid=439

    The word “intifada” is properly translated as “uprising”. The use of either of these terms implies a judgement as to the nature of the conflict – specifically that, like the earlier Intifada of 1987-1991, this “intifada” is a spontaneous and authentic expression of “popular rage at Israeli occupation”. Some supporters of Israel, realizing the political significance of the common, often unthinking use of such terms, have attempted to substitute other names for the conflict, such as “the Oslo War”. None of these alternative names has gained general currency.
    Which I'm sure you'd agree, is quite the partisan skew on a simple etymological term, for a study that proports it's scientific objectivity.

    I agree the tragedy is 'engineered', ostensibly by Israel, occupying Palestine and abrogating the rights of Palestinians via military occupation and annexation of territories (via colonisation) that the 'rest of the world' aka the UN (bar the USA & Israel) deems not to be territory that 'should' belong to Israel.

    Even this point is tinged with ambiguity, as Ariel Sharon (under US pressure) has at least paid lip service to dismanteling Jewish settlements in recent weeks.

    Of course all one must be is Jewish, to be held in such esteem in the only state in the world that practices modern-day aparthied, whilst claiming to be a democracy.

    At least, that's my take.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    Hobbes wrote:

    > The only thing I found was listing of terrorist attacks and then only by one side.

    > So there is bias on your site.



    This is incorrect. Terror attacks committed by Jews and Jewish organizations are listed, and Arab victims of Jewish terror attacks are part of our statistics. Try, for example, searching for incidents since 1 January 2001, leaving organization blank, target = School/University. Or look at Vehicles targed in the West Bank; there's one attack on 29 August 2001, another on 16 August, and one on 19 July. You can also look for attacks by Kach - but there haven't been any since the beginning of the "Intifada". (The Jewish attacks have yet to be attributed to any named organization.)

    The "problem" is that there are very few Jewish terror attacks, and not that our site is biased. I'd challenge you to find any "missing" incidents of Jewish terrorism.




    > You dismiss figures from the other side. Which is fine but you should list off exactly what deaths your claming as not real.


    Why? We discuss specifics incident-by-incident. There is no particular reason for us to spend the effort to refute other websites point-by-point; certainly none of them have done the same with us.


    > And list your sources. There are not only just two sides reporting the story. There are numerous sides. You can get information from Red Cross/UN workers (from various departments).


    Our sources are listed for each incident. And you are wrong about the Red Cross and UN: The Palestinian Red Crescent (the local affiliate of the Red Cross) is run by Yasser Arafat's brother, and its statistics are highly politicized. And the vast majority of the U.N. staff operating in Palestinian areas consists of Palestinians. Even B'Tzelem, always billed as an "Israeli human rights organization", is staffed almost entirely by Arabs.


    In any case, you haven't pointed out any real discrepancies between our statistics and anyone else's statistics. In my opinion, you'll find the following:

    A) Many people listed as "civilians" by Palestinian organizations were in fact combatants.

    B) Our demographic information is pretty much identical to everyone else's.

    C) None of the Palestinian sites addresses the implications of these demographics.



    > Or if you want to do a good system. Put names to the statistics for both sides. Show what each side is loosing in the conflict and the far reaching effects of both sides actions.


    I'm not sure what exactly you're asking for here, other than what we've already done. Could you clarify?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    Originally posted by Don Radlauer

    This is incorrect. Terror attacks committed by Jews and Jewish organizations are listed, and Arab victims of Jewish terror attacks are part of our statistics. Try, for example, searching for incidents since 1 January 2001, leaving organization blank, target = School/University.

    Ahh, I see it now. You need to change the front end to your search engine as it's very misleading. For example I am able to find some IDF attacks but you are not able to search for IDF as an organisation (change the term "Terrorist Organisation" to "Organisation" and add it to the list).
    Why? We discuss specifics incident-by-incident. There is no particular reason for us to spend the effort to refute other websites point-by-point; certainly none of them have done the same with us.

    The point I am picking up on is you say the results of others are wrong but then don't cite what exactly is wrong. It is the whole basis to how you are lowering your figures.

    Sure peoples names could be spelt differently in news reports, but without links to where your saying figures are incorrect, who is to know if your right or wrong?

    Other then the lack of all the reports yet the database looks ok. I see 0 deaths under rocket attacks, and news reports that I know of I checked and they weren't in there (but I could be misusing the search engine).

    - 02/12/02 Ashur Salem crushed to death when IDF blew up his home with dynamite.
    - 06/03/03 Kamla Abu killed when IDF destroyed her home.
    - 03/03/03 Nuha Sweidan (and unborn child) crushed to death when IDF dynamite house next to hers.

    Maybe define it as the number of deaths over the whole mess rather then saying "Terrorism" as people have different definations of what terrorism actually is.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    quote:
    Ahh, I see it now. You need to change the front end to your search engine as it's very misleading. For example I am able to find some IDF attacks but you are not able to search for IDF as an organisation (change the term "Terrorist Organisation" to "Organisation" and add it to the list).

    Good point. I'd also very much like to have a name search function, as people often come looking for a specific person. The problem, of course, is that the spelling of Arabic names (and even the composition) varies wildly. But I'll pass on your ideas to our Webmaster, who's responsible for the query screen.



    quote:
    The point I am picking up on is you say the results of others are wrong but then don't cite what exactly is wrong. It is the whole basis to how you are lowering your figures.

    Sure peoples names could be spelt differently in news reports, but without links to where your saying figures are incorrect, who is to know if your right or wrong?

    The point here is that our actual statistics aren't that different from those of the more serious Palestinian groups (such as the Red Crescent or the Palestinian Center for Human Rights). If you compare our statistics with theirs, you'll notice a couple of things:

    1) The Palestinian groups use the term "civilian" a lot. As I explain at length in "An Engineered Tragedy", the term "civilian" isn't really applicable to "asymmetrical" conflicts. "Combatant" is much more appropriate. We've been quite conservative, by the way, in assigning "combatant" status to Palestinians; when there has been any significant doubt, we've classed them as combatant status "Unknown", which means they're classed as noncombatants.

    2) Our statistics on the demographics of the Palestinians killed are pretty much identical with those of the Palestinian sites - although the Palestinians don't make a lot of noise about the gender distribution of their fatalities.

    3) The Palestinian sites don't go into the implications of the demographic makeup of their own side's fatalities.




    quote:
    Other then the lack of all the reports yet the database looks ok. I see 0 deaths under rocket attacks, and news reports that I know of I checked and they weren't in there (but I could be misusing the search engine).

    - 02/12/02 Ashur Salem crushed to death when IDF blew up his home with dynamite.
    - 06/03/03 Kamla Abu killed when IDF destroyed her home.
    - 03/03/03 Nuha Sweidan (and unborn child) crushed to death when IDF dynamite house next to hers.


    1) See 30 November 2002. We have the name as Ashour Dab.

    2) I'm still checking on this one. The name you give isn't complete - "Abu" is not a complete Arabic last name. It's the equivalent of "Father of", and is always followed by another name. Can you give me more detail about the incident, to help me track it down?

    3) She's listed as Nuha Eswdan Makadma, killed 3 March 2003. As is our standard practice in dealing with women known to have been pregnant, we have included her unborn child as a separate casualty.



    quote:
    Maybe define it as the number of deaths over the whole mess rather then saying "Terrorism" as people have different definations of what terrorism actually is.

    "An Engineered Tragedy" does exactly that. While we treat combatants and noncombatants separately, we don't separate people by the type of incident in which they were killed.

    Concerning definitions of terrorism, I suggest you read "Terrorism: No Prohibition Without Definition", at http://www.ict.org.il/articles/articledet.cfm?articleid=393 . The article's by Boaz Ganor, but I came up with the title. <g>


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    Originally posted by Don Radlauer
    The "problem" is that there are very few Jewish terror attacks, and not that our site is biased. I'd challenge you to find any "missing" incidents of Jewish terrorism.

    And therein lies the bias.

    The vast majority of attacks carried out by one side are automatically "not eligible" for consideration as terrorism in your opinion. Whether or not you are right in this is not what I am driving at...so lets leave that aside for the moment.

    So, you start from a point that very few Isreali-originated attacks are classified as terrorism, dismiss anything which isnt classified as "terrorism" and then conclude that there is no terrorism going on because thats what the figures show?????

    And you wonder that people are criticising it here as biased?

    Perhaps "bias" is the wrong term. Perhaps "circular logic" would be more appropriate?

    jc


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,458 ✭✭✭✭gandalf


    Just to follow up bonkeys post. The problem is this Don I would classify killing civilians to get one Hamas leader as state sponsored terrorism.

    I'm talking about the incident today where a Hamas Leader (not identified yet) was assassinated and 5 others killed including a 3yr old child. Now if this man was guilty of running terrorism would it not be correct international legal procedure to arrest and try him as a criminal instead of acting like terrorists and firing rockets from a helicopter onto a busy street. In my eyes that takes the IDF down to the same level as suicide bombers.

    Link to the story here : http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-12345535,00.html

    Gandalf.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    Bonkey wrote:


    quote:
    The vast majority of attacks carried out by one side are automatically "not eligible" for consideration as terrorism in your opinion. Whether or not you are right in this is not what I am driving at...so lets leave that aside for the moment.

    So, you start from a point that very few Isreali-originated attacks are classified as terrorism, dismiss anything which isnt classified as "terrorism" and then conclude that there is no terrorism going on because thats what the figures show?????

    Sorry, no. Terrorism has a specific definition: Acts or threats of violence carried out by sub-national groups against civilian targets in order to achieve a political goal. Acts taken by governments can be war crimes or crimes against humanity, but they are not normally classed as terrorism. When governments aid and protect terror groups, we can speak of "state-sponsored terrorism".

    Additionally, what exactly do you mean in saying that we "dismiss anything which isn't classified as 'terrorism'"? Our figures include all fatalities we find reported, without regard to whether they are the result of terrorism, attemted arrests, riots, incursions, whatever. We don't "exclude" anything.

    The fact remains that there is very little Jewish/Israeli terrorism, as the term is properly - and technically - understood. That doesn't mean that everything Israel does is correct and wonderful; something can be reprehensible without being an act of terrorism. The problem is that "terrorism" has been used so indiscriminately as a synonym for "something I don't like" that it's in danger of losing its real meaning.




    quote:
    And you wonder that people are criticising it here as biased?

    Perhaps "bias" is the wrong term. Perhaps "circular logic" would be more appropriate?

    I fail to see any circularity in our logic. Could you be more specific? Keep in mind that "An Engineered Tragedy" - which is, after all, what we're talking about - doesn't actually talk all that much about terrorism!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 36 Don Radlauer


    Gandalf wrote:

    quote:
    Just to follow up bonkeys post. The problem is this Don I would classify killing civilians to get one Hamas leader as state sponsored terrorism.

    I'm talking about the incident today where a Hamas Leader (not identified yet) was assassinated and 5 others killed including a 3yr old child. Now if this man was guilty of running terrorism would it not be correct international legal procedure to arrest and try him as a criminal instead of acting like terrorists and firing rockets from a helicopter onto a busy street. In my eyes that takes the IDF down to the same level as suicide bombers.

    While I disagree with your conclusion, you raise a good question. There are (at least) three issues involved here:

    1) Was this "targeted killing" an act of terrorism, a war crime, or in some other way illegal?

    2) Should senior terrorists be arrested rather than "hit"?

    3) Was this series of "targeted killings" a good idea strategically? Was it morally justified?


    Now, first read my article, "War Crimes and Gentleman's Agreements", at http://www.ict.org.il/articles/articledet.cfm?articleid=479 . Done yet?

    The Geneva Conventions, which are the main bit of "international law" applicable here, are actually quite fuzzy regarding what is and is not permissable in attacking military targets embedded among a civilian (i.e. "protected") population. It is made very clear that for combatants to shelter among civilians is itself a war crime, known as "perfidy". It is made equally clear that while legitimate military targets may be attacked wherever they are, the attacking power is not to use "excessive" force. The problem is that the Conventions don't define "excessive". While it's clear the nuking Gaza City to get one person would be "excessive", it's far from clear where exactly the line is drawn between "appropriate" and "excessive". In fact, I could make a good point that Israeli missile strikes are often "sub-appropriate" - in the sense that Rantisi emerged from a missile strike with only light injuries.

    While the Geneva Accords (as I pointed out, I think, in my article cited above) don't make a clear enough connection between the two issues, it seems to be generally agreed by experts on the subject that if one side commits "perfidy" - that is, an abuse of the "protected" status of a civilian population to shelter combatants, weapons, and so on - the onus is on that side for any civilian casualties that ensue. In other words, if Hamas hides among civilians, and Israeli forces kill some of these civilians in the course of pursuing Hamas combatants, the blame for the deaths lies not on Israel, but on Hamas.

    Unless it can be shown that Israel has gone after Hamas members with truly "excessive" force, or has indiscriminately attacked Palestinian civilian neighborhoods without bothering to target specific military personnel or facilities, Israel has committed neither terrorism, war crimes, nor crimes against humanity. I don't think any serious case can be made against Israel in this regard.

    * * *

    Should Israel arrest terrorists rather than kill them "extra-judicially"? The short answer is that Israel usually does exactly that. There are many more arrests than "targeted killings". However, it is not always simple, safe, or easy to make such arrests. Especially in Gaza, whenever Israeli forces enter a neighborhood to make an arrest, announcements go out over the local mosque loudspeakers for everyone to grab his gun and "confront the Zionist invaders". A gunfight inevitably ensues, and typically a dozen or so Palestinians wind up being killed. While most of these are armed (and therefore "combatants" in our definition), they are not the people we went in to arrest; and innocent Palestinians often get caught in the crossfire as well. In short, arrests often wind up A) getting the "suspect" killed in the firefight; and B) killing more bystanders (armed and unarmed) than "targeted killings". This is hardly a panacea!

    In any case, there is no "correct international legal procedure" being violated here. Soldiers on the battlefield are not entitled to a fair trial; and neither are active terrorists and the leaders of terrorist organizations.

    * * *

    Are these "targeted killings" a good idea strategically or morally? This is a much harder question for me to answer! I'm no great fan of "targeted killings", and I think that the Israel government has often shown an extremely bad sense of timing in carrying out these attacks. I'm also far from convinced that most of these attacks yield a result that's worth the trouble. (There may be exceptions - for example, when one terrorist has special technical know-how that others lack.) So I won't undertake a spirited defense of "targeted killings" as a strategy, since I'd be pretending to an enthusiasm I don't in fact possess.

    Morally, I think there is a genuine case to be made for "targeted killings", as long as the utmost effort is made to minimize "collateral" casualties. The people Israel is targeting are not choirboys; they are vicious terrorists who are responsible for the cold-blooded murder of many innocent noncombatants. As my wife would say (she's from Texas), they need killin'. As they don't do us the courtesy of confronting us on the battlefield, we have no choice other than to let ourselves be killed without making any response, and going in after the killers. I do wish to emphasize, though, that my approval of such attacks is *very* conditional: Only the top commanders should be targeted, and great care must be made to "do the job cleanly".


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    Originally posted by Don Radlauer
    The point here is that our actual statistics aren't that different from those of the more serious Palestinian groups


    Well your document made a point of saying that some of the people killed were listed as double due to Arabic names being written in more then one way. Prehaps you should tag the particular incidents where a death was listed as a duplicate?
    1) See 30 November 2002. We have the name as Ashour Dab.

    I select ALL and type in 30/11/2002 - 30/11/2002. Comes up no matches.
    2) I'm still checking on this one. The name you give isn't complete

    I just pulled the three names from an ISM document off thier website. You should ask them to supply information or maybe fill in the blanks for bits.
    3) She's listed as Nuha Eswdan Makadma, killed 3 March 2003.

    Again I get no matches. Maybe there is something funky going on with the search engine?

    Read the article you posted. Not sure if I agree with it all though. This bit...
    By narrowing the definition of terrorism to include only deliberate attacks on civilians, we leave room for a “fair fight” between guerillas and state armies.

    Which is fine but doesn't take into account where one side doesn't target civilians but does treat them as collateral damage. Those people are living in terror of every day life which is what Terrorism is.

    The UK defination is.
    terrorism means the use or threat of action to influence a government or intimidate the public for a political, religious or ideological cause.

    Which is about as close what I believe Terrorism is. The EU defination is...
    terrorism is a deliberate attack by an individual or a group against a country, its institutions or its people - with the aim of intimidating them and damaging or destroying their political, economic or social structures.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,489 ✭✭✭Clintons Cat


    Don would you like to comment on the number of Red Crescent Ambulance Crews Killed and shot at during the present Intafaeda?

    www.palestinercs.org

    About this time last year they were reporting the following
    Total recorded attacks on PRCS ambulances during current crisis is 165 causing damage to 69 vehicles (68% of fleet). Total Emergency medical personnel injured is 122.

    the current tally is
    June 6, 2003 - Total recorded attacks on PRCS ambulances during current crisis is 253 causing damage to 118 vehicles. Total Emergency medical personnel injured is 192.

    What is the Israeli Governments position on the targeting of Ambulances?

    Would you care to elaborate on the circumstances of the death of
    Dr. Khalil Sulieman?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,489 ✭✭✭Clintons Cat


    Sorry, no. Terrorism has a specific definition: Acts or threats of violence carried out by sub-national groups against civilian targets in order to achieve a political goal.

    <snip>

    The fact remains that there is very little Jewish/Israeli terrorism, as the term is properly - and technically - understood.

    Don another question for you, would you classify the assasination of Yitzak Rabin as a terrorist act ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,264 ✭✭✭✭Hobbes


    FFS Clinton what do you think he was holding the gun or something?

    He runs the stats site, and is keeping track of everything as he said (although I still can't find stuff in it, like Dr. Khalil Sulieman's death).


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,038 ✭✭✭✭Sparks


    The Geneva Conventions, which are the main bit of "international law" applicable here, are actually quite fuzzy regarding what is and is not permissable in attacking military targets embedded among a civilian (i.e. "protected") population.
    No, they're not. They clearly state that it's not permitted to either attack protected people or to use protected people as shields. At all.
    While I disagree with your conclusion, you raise a good question. There are (at least) three issues involved here:
    1) Was this "targeted killing" an act of terrorism, a war crime, or in some other way illegal?
    Anti-tank missiles were fired at a target in a crowded street. The fourth missile was fired after a short delay, thus ensuring that anyone that ran to the aid of the people in the car were caught in the blast. The odds that those people knew who they were helping are exceptionally low, especially given the injuries and burns the people would have suffered.
    This is illegal under national and international law. The specific charge would vary in name, from premeditated murder to depraved indifference to human life.
    2) Should senior terrorists be arrested rather than "hit"?
    Yes.
    This isn't really a question, you know. Unless you would care to return to a system of secret police forces and assasination as an accepted political solution.
    3) Was this series of "targeted killings" a good idea strategically? Was it morally justified?
    No, in both cases. Premeditated murder is simply not morally justifiable. And the strategic question is answered in both short and long terms by simple observation:
    Short-term, the IDF tries to assasinate a Hamas spokesman. The next day, a bus is blown up.
    Long-term, how long have similar tactics been tried without success? Both in Israel/Palestine and elsewhere?
    Now, first read my article, "War Crimes and Gentleman's Agreements", at http://www.ict.org.il/articles/arti...m?articleid=479 . Done yet?
    That was a rather annoying article to read because of its disingenous statements and underlying bias. For example:
    It has become clear that before the war started, Saddam’s lieutenants made a detailed study of Palestinian tactics of the last thirty months, including those used against Israel’s incursion into Jenin a year ago.
    Firstly, how has that become clear?
    Secondly, it manages to convey the impression that the IDF's actions in Jenin were legitimate in some way and that the tactics used to oppose them were inherently illegitimate. Neither of which is in any way clear.
    Iraqi use of non-conventional weapons would serve only to validate the invasion, while probably failing to do much damage to well-protected and forewarned troops.
    Which automatically assumes that such weapons existed, in complete disregard of the reality that no such weapons have been located and the "best" evidence of their existance, the "mobile biochemical labs" have now been shown to have been hydrogen production units for balloons used as part of an artillery system sold to Iraq by Britain in the 80s.
    Should this “uprising” take place, though, the United States and Great Britain will join Israel in receiving the opprobrium of “right-thinking” people, who will brand them as brutal occupiers and murderers of innocent civilians.
    At present, the estimated death toll of innocent civilians in Iraq is between four and seven thousand people. All the ad hominem reasoning in the world (the very thing you first complained of in this thread, btw) against those that hold that coalition forces killed innocents, will do little to negate the fact that they did.
    Coalition spokesmen will try to justify their soldiers’ actions as legitimate under the Geneva Conventions (a.k.a. “international law”), given the Iraqis’ violations of the sanctioned rules of warfare.
    Firstly, international law contains the Geneva Conventions, but is not defined by them. Secondly, they cannot do so, since the Convention that outlaws perfidity on the battlefield (the whole "shooting from under a white flag" set of tactics) was signed by neither side. Which to my way of thinking is a serious black mark against the US.
    It seems that the international court of public opinion will permit the Iraqi regime to get away with routine and flagrant violation of the Geneva Conventions.
    This is annoying to see in an article that fails to mention the numerous UN resolutions condemning Israel for violating the same resolution and which also fails to mention Guantanamo Bay, currently the biggest slap in the face of the Geneva Conventions that exists.
    At the same time, the U.S. and the U.K., both generally careful to operate within the Geneva strictures, will bear almost the entire onus for the human cost of their invasion to oust Saddam Hussein.
    In fact, the US is praised? Despite having broken the Conventions like they didn't exist? Despite shooting at hospitals, ambulances, civilians, and in a few cases, deliberatly shooting children? And how did the US shoulder the brunt of the human cost when their losses in the entire invasion don't even compare to a single day's losses in the Iraqi civilian population?
    The Geneva Conventions are no longer effective in regulating the conduct of nations in wartime. If the world is to avoid the horrors of unregulated, “no-holds-barred” conflicts in the future, significant improvements must be made in the formulation and enforcement of the laws of armed conflict.
    In other words, because the US and a host of other nations, Israel included, do not adhere to the Geneva Conventions, it's the fault of the Conventions and they must be redrafted?
    That's so blatently incorrect that I'm pretty much shocked that it can even be touted as a legitimate piece of reasoning!
    The Geneva Conventions (along with the Hague Convention) basically amount to a “gentleman’s agreement” among nations as to how military conflicts are to be conducted.
    No, they do not. They are legal treaties, ratified by the signatories. Their problem is the lack of an international court where anyone breaking them can be charged. That's the purpose of the ICC - which the US is trying ver, very, very hard to undermine - including refusing to pay UN dues, threatening to withdraw US funding to balkan states and vetoing continuing peacekeeping operations in the balkans. And Israel formally withdrew it's signature from the initial treaty of Rome that founded the ICC.
    The common perception of the Geneva Conventions is that they impose a blanket prohibition against attacking the various designated “protected” targets belonging to one’s enemy.
    That would be because they do. From the conventions:
    " Persons taking no active part in the hostilities, including members of armed forces who have laid down their arms and those placed hors de combat by sickness, wounds, detention, or any other cause, shall in all circumstances be treated humanely"
    This view misses a crucial point: civilian targets are protected not only from attack by enemy forces, but also from military use by their own side.
    No, that point is covered specifically in the Conventions (it's article 28). The fact remains that you may not attack a protected target.
    In order for one side’s “protected” people and facilities to be excluded from combat, the other side is entitled to the assurance that these “protected” targets are in fact of no military value and present no danger.
    In point of fact, that's not in the conventions, they simply prohibit the use of such facilities (they're not targets, by the way) for military purposes. Specific and regulated cases, such as civilian hospitals treating combatants are covered and do not permit targeting of protected facilities.
    Should such a protected facility be abused and then subsequently targeted, there would be two cases to answer for :
    1) Breaking the convention by disregarding article 28
    2) Breaking the convention by disregarding article 3
    The second case could not use the first case as a defense, unless they could prove that the facility was no longer acting as such a facility. For example, a civilian iraqi hospital is used as a sniper post during the invasion, over the doctor's protests, by a few men. The US bombs the hospital, killing fifty people. Both incidents count as seperate cases and neither can use the other as a defense.
    they can no longer be expected to treat these people, vehicles, and places as sacrosanct.
    Not only can they be, they are required to do so by law.

    There are one or two good points in the paper, specifically the need for a further protocol in the Conventions to cover assymetrical warfare and the need for an independent enforcement mechanism - but the tone of the paper is so prejudical that frankly, it's not worth the time it took to read it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,038 ✭✭✭✭Sparks


    In fact, I could make a good point that Israeli missile strikes are often "sub-appropriate" - in the sense that Rantisi emerged from a missile strike with only light injuries.
    That would require that not only the method used, but the primary goal itself would have to be justifiable - and neither is.
    While the Geneva Accords (as I pointed out, I think, in my article cited above) don't make a clear enough connection between the two issues, it seems to be generally agreed by experts on the subject that if one side commits "perfidy" - that is, an abuse of the "protected" status of a civilian population to shelter combatants, weapons, and so on - the onus is on that side for any civilian casualties that ensue.
    I'd like to see your citations for that, if you please. Frankly, I don't believe you.
    In other words, if Hamas hides among civilians, and Israeli forces kill some of these civilians in the course of pursuing Hamas combatants, the blame for the deaths lies not on Israel, but on Hamas.
    That is disingenous. Firstly, the IDF were not "pursuing" Hamas combatants, they were trying to assasinate a Hamas spokesman, and secondly, the method used was assured to cause the deaths of nearby innocent civilians. This wasn't a sniper bullet, it was an anti-tank missile fired in a crowded street. The blame is very, very clearly on the IDF.
    Unless it can be shown that Israel has gone after Hamas members with truly "excessive" force
    What else do you call using anti-tank missiles in a crowded street?
    or has indiscriminately attacked Palestinian civilian neighborhoods without bothering to target specific military personnel or facilities
    That's a charge that has been laid against the IDF on many occasions, and it has never been acceptably refuted. The death of Rachel Corrie, for example, was not caused by a bulldozer according to the IDF. James Miller was supposedly shot during an exchange of fire between a tank and an anti-tank group - despite the fact that no such firing is heard on the footage that shows his death. Brian Avery was shot in the face with a mounted .50-cal, in direct violation of even the IDF's rules of combat which state that mounted machine guns cannot be used to fire "warning shots".
    I don't think any serious case can be made against Israel in this regard.
    I beg to differ. Israel doesn't care to listen to such cases, but that's due to prejudice, not facts.
    In short, arrests often wind up A) getting the "suspect" killed in the firefight; and B) killing more bystanders (armed and unarmed) than "targeted killings".
    That's not even close to a justification for the policy of assassinations. Firstly, the suspect (no inverted commas please, we tend to require people to prove guilt rather than just point to someone, say they're guilty and shoot them), has a right to due process. Secondly, you've given an emotive scene, but not one that's backed up with evidence.
    In any case, there is no "correct international legal procedure" being violated here. Soldiers on the battlefield are not entitled to a fair trial;
    Correct. But soldiers are demarked by wearing a uniform and carrying a weapon. If either of those conditions are not met, then that person is entitled to, at a minimum, not be shot out of hand. If armed, they must be shooting at someone to be classed as a target, and if unarmed and in uniform, they are protected by the Geneva Convention.
    and neither are active terrorists and the leaders of terrorist organizations.
    On the contrary, they are entitled to due process. The only people not entitled to due process are armed soldiers in uniform during time of war.
    Morally, I think there is a genuine case to be made for "targeted killings", as long as the utmost effort is made to minimize "collateral" casualties.
    Even such a minimal case is invalid here, as the methods being used are assured to cause additional causalties.
    The people Israel is targeting are not choirboys; they are vicious terrorists who are responsible for the cold-blooded murder of many innocent noncombatants.
    The only proof we have of that is the word of people that fire anti-tank missiles in crowded streets and who shrug off UN charges of violations of the Geneva Convention as though they don't matter, and who have killed or shot several peace activists in the last few months with no remorse.
    As my wife would say (she's from Texas), they need killin'.
    Whatever texan wives think, the rest of the planet is generally agreed that people are not permitted to wander around killing at random.
    As they don't do us the courtesy of confronting us on the battlefield
    You would like Hamas to line up to be shot by a militarily superior force?
    we have no choice other than to let ourselves be killed without making any response, and going in after the killers.
    Incorrect. There are other effective responses.
    Only the top commanders should be targeted, and great care must be made to "do the job cleanly".
    Which is the precise opposite of what we're seeing.

    From your own paper :
    A correct and objective definition of terrorism can be based upon accepted international laws and principles regarding what behaviors are permitted in conventional wars between nations. These laws are set out in the Geneva and Hague Conventions, which in turn are based upon the basic principle that the deliberate harming of soldiers during wartime is a necessary evil, and thus permissible, whereas the deliberate targeting of civilians is absolutely forbidden. These Conventions thus differentiate between soldiers who attack a military adversary, and war criminals who deliberately attack civilians.

    The IDF don't come off terribly well under such a definition.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 418 ✭✭Zaphod B


    I'd have to agree with most - no, every point made by Sparks in his last two posts (I'm assuming/hoping your comment regarding Hamas lining up on the battlefield wasn't an attempt at justifying Hamas' tactics).

    As for bias, it's just plain silly to suggest that that site is totally objective and unbiased. There are very few (if any) sites regarding this conflict that are not biased toward one side or another, whether run by Arabs, Israelis, Liberals or Conservatives.
    Even here, on an Irish website, it's near impossible to get an objective view (usually we end up with Sand and Typedef squaring off :p). Personally I'm taking the most cynical view possible and basically giving up on both sides, since each apparently has no greater desire than to wipe the other off the map.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,580 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    As for bias, it's just plain silly to suggest that that site is totally objective and unbiased. There are very few (if any) sites regarding this conflict that are not biased toward one side or another, whether run by Arabs, Israelis, Liberals or Conservatives.

    Agreed - The database is interesting because with a database you can try and bring everything down to known facts/categories. The interpretations of that information can be biased, but at least you can challenge those interpretations with interpretations of your own and back them up.

    As for the basic point of the article, It does seem that palestinian targets are far more random and "careless" than Israeli targeting which seems to be far less random. Thats an interpretation of the data presented. Maybe others can be drawn.
    it's near impossible to get an objective view (usually we end up with Sand and Typedef squaring off

    Ive not actually debated/argued (Neither term seems to fit tbh, Im sure Type will have a better term :) ) with Type for ages, I dont waste my time in Israel/Palestine threads that much anymore for one thing. And for the record Ive read a few posts of Types recently which have convinced me I dont need to post on a given thread because hes pretty much saying what I think. Give yourself to the dark side Type:x


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭bonkey


    Folx...

    Don has done us the courtesy of coming here to discuss his side of the issue at hand...that being the statistical content on his website.

    I would appreciate it if we could stick on topic on this one. The accuracy or validity of the statistics....no problem....but lets not turn this into yet another inevitable spiral of two immovable sides shouting at each other that "how can you support someone so wrong".

    There's enough of that going on in the Middle East as it is. Lets stick to the point at hand. If you want a good rant, go take it to a seperate topic.

    Don....I didnt have a chance to properly say this yesterday, but as a moderator of the board, I would like to formally thank you for taking the time and interest to come here and discuss your points. Its not often someone does that, and its a refreshing change to us armchair experts thrashing it out solely amongst ourselves.

    Regardless of anyone's opinions about the rightnesses and wrongnesses which occur in and around the Israel/Palestine conflict, your willingness to come here and discuss the stuff is admirable.

    jc


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