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What's the betting on political events...

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  • 29-07-2003 2:06pm
    #1
    PH01
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭


    Seemingly the Pentagon is taking a leaf from Paddy Power bookmakers and it is setting up its own betting web site. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3106559.stm

    So what will you give me for the next President of the US, the number of US soldiers killed in Iraq by years end, or FF winning the next general election? ;)


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    #2
    sceptre
    Registered Users Posts: 19,608 ✭✭✭✭sceptre


    So what if I place a million dollar bet that GW Bush is going to be assassinated on 15 October this year and then go and do the deed myself?

    There was quite a good essay rolling around a few years ago about this very possibility. If anyone can find it, please post a link (otherwise I'll go through old copies of PCW - I know they mentioned it some time)


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    #3
    Imposter
    Registered Users Posts: 4,666 ✭✭✭Imposter


    Originally posted by sceptre
    So what if I place a million dollar bet that GW Bush is going to be assassinated on 15 October this year and then go and do the
    deed myself?
    Chances are you'd be arrested as you tried to collect your winnings!

    This is another one of those believe it or not stories from america. For such a stupid idea though it seemed to get quite far in terms of implementation.

    The original idea here was that it might help the US intelligence to spot possible terrorist attacks until it got pointed out that it may actually cause more self-prophecising (sp?) attacks than prevent real ones. I'd just love to know what the procedure for cashing in winnings would have been!

    They've now decided it's not such a good idea surprisingly enough.


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    #4
    dahamsta
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,659 ✭✭✭✭dahamsta


    >
    >July 29, 2003
    >Pentagon Said to Abandon Plan for Futures Market on Terror
    >By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
    >
    >WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon will abandon a plan to establish a futures market
    >to help predict terrorist strikes, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services
    >Committee said Tuesday.
    >
    >Sen. John Warner, R-Va., said he spoke by phone with the program's director,
    >"and we mutually agreed that this thing should be stopped."
    >
    >Warner announced the decision not long after Senate Democratic Leader Thomas
    >Daschle took to the floor to denounce the program as "an incentive actually
    >to commit acts of terrorism."
    >
    >Warner made the announcement during a confirmation hearing for retired Gen.
    >Peter J. Schoomaker, nominated to be Army chief of staff.

    <SNIP>

    Archives at: http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/


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    #5
    dahamsta
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,659 ✭✭✭✭dahamsta


    >Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 10:26:44 -0700
    >From: Ian Stoba <ian@babcockbrown.com>
    >Subject: Re: [IP] : DARPA "Terrorism Futures Market" to be dropped
    >To: dave@farber.net
    >
    >
    >Perhaps the plan was abandoned because the Pentagon learned that a very
    >active market in terrorism futures has already existed for some time.
    >TradeSports is a live (i.e. real money at risk) marketplace where
    >futures are traded on, among many other things, future security alert
    >levels and the likelihood of Osama bin Laden's capture.
    >
    >Here is the current view of their market in "current events":
    >
    >https://www.tradesports.com/jsp/datafeed/liveprices/
    >LivePrices.jsp?eventclassinput=Current%20Events&location=LivePrices
    >
    >Note: I am not affiliated with TradeSports, but I find the concept
    >fascinating.
    >
    >--Ian


  • Options
    #6
    shotamoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭shotamoose


    In theory, it's not a bad idea, because in theory, markets are efficient. Key phrase here being in theory.


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    #7
    ReefBreak
    Registered Users Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭ReefBreak


    I have to say, this is just like a story that would appear on The Onion.


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    #8
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,411 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3106559.stm
    "Research indicates that markets are extremely efficient, effective and timely aggregators of dispersed and even hidden information,"
    They are also prone to manipulation and let me see, they didn't predict the dotcom bubble very well.


  • Options
    #9
    dahamsta
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 16,659 ✭✭✭✭dahamsta


    I'm totally ticked off. While reading up on this story I came across mention of TradeSports, and Googled that to see if I could better understand the whole idea of futures trading. One of the non-sports trades was whether Poindexter would still be on the DARPA payroll at the end of August (see "DARPA Contract", left-hand side), and I thought I might have a punt for the crack, but didn't bother in the end. Well, guess what...

    http://news.google.com/news?q=poindexter

    Still though, I guess he might still be in DARPA at the end of this. Guy seems to be blessed.

    adam


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