Poll 2: Realistically, who will be the Government after the next General Election.

ReefBreak

The key word here is realistically.

invincibleirish

lab/fg,possibly sf as well i dunno,but one thing is for certain,ff are gonna get an enormous kick up the arse,yee-ha!!

Originally posted by invincibleirish
lab/fg,possibly sf as well i dunno,but one thing is for certain,ff are gonna get an enormous kick up the arse,yee-ha!!

I wouldn't put too big a bet on that if I were you...
There are umpteen popular ex FF independents, half of which will probably get back in.
Then half of the current P.D's probably as well.

Neither the incumbent Govt. or FG will do a deal with SF, who would probably abstain rather than vote for a FG+LAB coalition because, well they don't like FG, being southern Unionists and all in their eyes.
Indeed they *would* probably support an FF nomination for Taoiseach.

So that leaves a minority FF/PD arrangement supported by independents and another five years of Bertie-Horaah!! :rolleyes:
mm

Sparks

It's highly unlikely that FF will get back in, there's been too much crap over the last six years.

DMC

Somehow, I can't see a blow-out of FG proportions for FF at the next election... Yes they are unpopular now... if the economy turned around etc...

A blow-out for FF would be a loss of 20 seats, a catastophe would be 30.

So, FG/Lab/Green and a few Indies is the realistic next Govt. But FG better get the finger out, they need to be more vocal. The Euro and local elections are only 10 months away, and if FF get bad results then, they still have 3 years 'til the next election.

FF need to loose 20 seats before they can't form a government, imo. Is it possible, though?

Paddy20

DMC,

You bet. It is very possible for FF to lose 20 seats!.:)

Originally posted by Sparks
It's highly unlikely that FF will get back in, there's been too much crap over the last six years.

That depends a lot on FG.
Their current leader lacks charisma and isn't very convincing.
He has this child like smirk after everything he says that does my head in anyhow.
Labour?? well they would have to gain a lot of seats to make up for FG ineptitude.
I mean, if FG cannot gain at the polls in the current circumstances, they never will and Enda Kenny won't Galvanise a groundswell of support in my opinion.

The last time labour did well at the polls, they went to bed with the Devil, who is to say they won't again, despite opposition in the party.
mm

DapperGent

You left out a Fianna Fail-Labour coalition. I'd see FF losing a ****load of seats and Labour gaining most of them because FG are just pathetic at the moment.

At that point I'd see Labour cutting a deal as long as the PDs weren't involved.

Sparks

FF/Labour?
Christ, that would be the last straw really.

Man, if Ennoi is still in charge of FG in a year or three, I'll be surprised...

passive

what about SWP?

invincibleirish

i think sinn fein will grow massively in the next election by at least doubling the amount of seats they have now so i think one party or another will be in a possition where they cannot afford to ignore them,as for the swp,if they ever do get a seat(possibly boyd barrett in dun laoghire but unlikely) they promise never to go into government but instead will follow a policy of agitation,i.e. kick up a fuss in parliament like the greens used to do.

Sparks

i think sinn fein will grow massively in the next election by at least doubling the amount of seats they have now so i think one party or another will be in a possition where they cannot afford to ignore them

That's gotta be the scariest option, especially since it's actually plausible.
It's also one of the main reasons that FF deserve a good kicking...

invincibleirish

That's gotta be the scariest option, especially since it's actually plausible.

indeed and(quoting myself from the ogra ff mb)

the reason perhaps these days ff dislike sinn fein is not so much any ira links but the electoral threat that sf is becoming ,sf are on course to at least double their dail representation in the next g. election and this will be at the expense mainly of ff,particularly in the more urban areas where people have been failed by ff and are more willing to vote sf as their activists on the ground are more involved then ffs are(classic example aengus o snodaigh),so that classic working class vote ff always had in the cities is now been siphoned off to sf.also the youth factor cannot be dismissed,i seem to recall at the last election polls taken showed that sf achieved the largest or one of the largest parts of the youth vote and that sf seem to be a more *exciting* party then ff.

Paddy20

I am not a member of any political party. However, it appears that Sinn Fein are poised to make a significant impact for change in this part of Ireland, as they have proven against the odds in another part of this fair isle.

I believe that a change in the mindset of the Irish electorate has already begun, and it is inevitable that it will prove to be Sinn Fein who will become the main beneficiaries, eventually?..

sceptre

At the moment I'm calling it as FF propped up by the shinners and a small number of friendly independents. Currently it's looking like FF will take a relatively minor hit (losing more seats to SF than to any of the others) while the PDs will be hammered for dropping the ball they said they'd carry. It's a few years off yet - the opposition may well get around to doing something yet.

Personally I don't like the idea of another government manned by cretins but the alternative is looking pretty useless at the moment. Incidentally I'll still be voting for the alternative (the current level of lazy incompetence is even getting legendary in the civil service at the moment (though many of the financial types reckon that's a good thing)).

invincibleirish

i disagree with regards to ff,i do think they reached a plateau in terms of seats and popularity at the last election particularly with gains in areas like my constituency (cork-sw) where they took seats which were traditionally fg,i think any kind of re-emergence of fg,along with a labour renaissance and sf growth,means that ff are on course to lose at least 15 seats next time round.

Chaos-Engine

Labour Majority

Possibly with support from Greens, SF and the odd non-ex-FF Indo

Cork

Originally posted by invincibleirish
i i think any kind of re-emergence of fg,along with a labour renaissance and sf growth,means that ff are on course to lose at least 15 seats next time round.

I disagree. FF strength in Cork is not on the wane. FF has really consolidated it's position. FG on the other hand was once very strong in Cork - but support for that party has dwindled.

Enda Kenny - I don't think he is causig Bertie any sleepless nights.

Overall - The election will be in 4 years. 3 months before the last election -

Labour tought they were going to be the king makers & Michael Noonan was to be the next taoiseach.

Far too early to call.

ReefBreak

I think anyone that's certain of Labour being in Govenment after the next G.E is going to find themselves disappointed. The ecomony is almost certain to improve over the next 3-4 years - almost every major economic indicator in the US is pointing to a (US) recovery right now, and Ireland (being a wide-open economy) will not be far behind. Given the timing, it could be that FF/PD will take a lot of credit for this, and will end up being returned to power. This will possibly be undeserved, but then again, the downturn was due almost solely to Global economic conditions rather than specific Governement policy - even if the Labour Party would try and persuade you otherwise.

However, if you believe the ESRI's recent report, the Irish economy has done surprisingly well in the face of tough international conditions: it's still performing way above almost all other EU economies, with growth rates that other states would love to have. And we still have an unemployment rate that is just above 4%.

From the ESRI Medium Term Report :

» The economy is quite strong. While in the short-term the outlook is very uncertain, the Irish economy remains fundamentally healthy. In the medium term it has the potential to grow at 5 per cent a year. Any underperformance in the next two years is likely to be matched by a subsequent spurt of activity, returning the economy to its trend growth path from 2005.

I wouldn't have expected this from a Labour government whose last G.E manifesto involved increasing taxes and borrowing.

Originally posted by Sparks
That's gotta be the scariest option, especially since it's actually plausible.
It's also one of the main reasons that FF deserve a good kicking...

if it's any consolation Sparks...
At the time of the last General election, I remember talking to someone down the road from here who has Republican leanings, but not a supporter of the RA.
The local SF candidate called to the door and was welcomed,as a representative whose party had a great part to play in the changing circumstances of NI.

That was untill, he handed over his manifesto/party policy documents:eek:
My neighbour could not agree with any single topic there except the United Ireland one...
He told me, the visit, changed his vote away from SF.
mm

Chaos-Engine

Reefbreak

You make some good predictions and i mark them well...
But the mere fact that Ireland is the most globalisd economy in the world means that we are highly vunerable to further loses of US FDI...
Enlargement of the EU is probably the greatest threat coupled with an EXTREMELY uncompetitive environment that exists in this country thanks to InDirect Tax increases, Wage Demands in excess of an average of 10% in the Private Sector annually, Civil Servant Inefficency and a Labour shortage in critical areas of the economy such as Health care, education and IT..(forgot the infrastructural deficit which will take over 10 years to solve)

Candidate countries such as the Czech Republic with its highly skilled work force and lower costs with similar productivity levels will attract alot of Irish manufacturing(i.e. all those factories with non-graduate middle aged staff in remote areas).
Estonia which has NO CORPORATE tax on profits that remain in the country. Not to mention the Internet as a Human Right. Will become the work horse of IT in the EU. eHub Ireland will simply mean we have wires going to america which estonia uses

Concluding. While Globally there will be a pick up in the state of the economics, more than likely we will suffer because of our domestic inefficencies and threats from the above mentioned Baltic and Slavic Tigers

[note]
Its questionable whether you can attribute the slumb in the Irish economy to 'mainly' global factors. The Irish economy over-heated(circa 1999) long before the global slow down occured. Tax revenues headed toward the negative around that time. INflation played its part also...