Rugby World Cup-predictions and extrapolations

Hairy Homer

Somebody just dumped on my desk an old issue of Shoot! magazine, every spotty teenage soccer fan's favourite reading on the subject. (or at least it was when I still had zits)

It was a preview issue for last year's World Cup and it contained a number of predictions, none of them too controversial at the time, for the forthcoming tournament. Let's remind ourselves what they said, and what really happened, and see if there's any lessons that can be applied to the Rugby version.

France
What they said:
We reckon they might go and win it again…these guys are awesome

What really happened
Eliminated first round having lost three matches without scoring a goal

Argentina
What they said:
Rightly considered favourites. Spoilt for choice all over the park. This side has all the tools to live up to the pretournament hype.

What really happened
Eliminated first round

Italy
What they said:
On the shortlist for World Cup glory

What really happened
Eliminated second round

USA
What they said:
Do not posess the tools to progress to the [second]
round

What really happened
Quarter finalists


Senegal
What they said:
Will do well to avoid being Group A’s whipping boys

What really happened:
Quarter finalists

South Korea
What they said:
To pull off a spot in the second round would rank up there with the very best of [manager] Guus Hiddink’s achievements, but Poland should beat them to it.

What really happened
Semifinalists

Turkey
What they said:
A lack of experience of the cut and thrust of a major international tournament allied with a tendency to buckle under pressure. We reckon [they] will miss out [on qualification for Round 2]… just.

What really happened
Semifinalists (3rd place)

Germany
What they said:
Look to be struggling. Old fashioned organisation should see them through to the second round but after that I’m afraid it’s ‘see yer later’

What really happened
Runners up

Brazil
What they said:
Have the tools to at least make the semi finals

What really happened
Champions!!!!

So let's extrapolate to the Rugby World Cup (I know, I know it's dodgy but bear with me)

There were two red hot favourites (England? New Zealand?) who both bombed out early . (Hey. We can dream)

There was one traditionally great team that had lost its way and wasn't expected to do well at all but still got to the final. (South Africa?)

Another of the traditional superpowers was considered to be lacking a bit of lustre and was only expected to get to the semis but went on to win it anyway (Australia? Say it ain't so God)

And there were a load of promising minnows who ended up scaring the pants out of a lot of the big guys and made it to a hair's breadth of the final. Do they mean us?

What are the chances of us surprising Australia with a first choice team, winning the group, getting to the semi final and giving NZ a real fright? Maybe even beating the buggers for the first time in 98 years of trying? After which we'd be too washed out to actually win the tournament but who cares?

MarVeL

Personally I'd be happy to see us beat Argentina. They have looked very good of late (although the home advantage for some of those games would definitely skew the results). Then theres our not so happy record against Namibia :-)

Finishing second in our group would be an achievement but it is something we should be capable of. That being said all the pressure is now on Australia, particularly if Argentina scare them (they couldn't beat them, could they???) in the first game.

It looks awfully like England unless someone takes Wilkinson out though :-(

Washout

argentina we have to beat them!!!!

the result of last time time has to be reveresed....revenge will be sweet

Hairy Homer

Ours is certainly the Group of Death. With the possible exception of Italy and Wales, who are both in the same group, ours is the only one in which there are three teams vying for the two places.

Argentina are well capable of qualifying. Beat France twice this year and were, by all accounts desperately unlucky not to beat South Africa.

Not forgetting of course that Namibia have a 100 per cent record against us so far. (played two, won two)

Australia's progress is by no means assured.......maybe I shouldn't say that out loud.

Coyler

The Mind Still boggles at that Namibia tour. Was one of the worst era's of Irish rugby after all but some good came of it. You can have play "pick the one cap wonder team". Great fun and there are a few gems in there.

Seriously though, it's going to be a close call for anyone to get out of our group but you'd imagine that home advantage will count for something. How much, we'll find out in October.

Anyho, as far as the business end of the competition I would prefer if England or France win it (they will probably meet in the semi's) but seeing as it's November in Oz as apposed to Blighty, the Kiwi's will probably shade it.

PH01

I reckon it's going to be either New Zealand who are going to win the RWC. They're in awsome form at the moment and they'll be playing at the end of the season - they'll be the ones to beat. And forget the rest.

bucks73

Ireland should come second in the group and meet France in the quarter final. Anything can happen when the French are playing and the huge Irish support in melbourne will be an advatage.

A semi final versus England then awaits which should see the auld enemy go through.

England would be my favourites even though the All Blacks had an excellent tri-nations.

Sundy

i hope England win the RWC (thats if ireland dont manage!!!). this may not be the popular view of an irish man but the likes of leonard, dalliglio, johnson all deserve the biggest prize in rugby.

You might not like any of these players but you have to respect em.

C'on Ireland, but if not at least a northern hemisphere team please!

Hairy Homer

You've got to marvel at the strength in depth of a team that can leave out Cullen, Mehrtens and Lomu and still win the Tri Nations at a canter and with a hundred per cent record.

Whatever about Lomu and Cullen, I think leaving Mehrtens out could be a mistake. Sure he's boring but when the going gets tough he's just the sort of bloody minded outhalf who knows the percentages and can kick his goals that they may just need.

Bit like a Kiwi Eric Elwood.

NZ SHOULD win. But that little weakness could come back to haunt them.

MarVeL

If you're talking strength in depth then I'm afraid England is one of the scariest sides for a while. Look at the job against the welsh as an example. The proof of it will be if they manage to turn over Frances 1st XV in Marseilles (where France have never lost) with a very 2nd (3rd even?) looking XV. If they pull that off they'll definitely be putting down a marker for the World Cup.

At the moment you'd have to figure them as "favourites" unfortunately.

kmart6

Originally posted by Sundy
the likes of leonard, dalliglio, johnson all deserve the biggest prize in rugby.

None of them deserve anything Johnson is a f**king tramp who shouldnt be allowed onto a rugby pitch.He is a disgtace to his country and the game of rugby after what he made his team do at Lansdowne Road

kmart6

I think New Zealand will win the World Cup in a final against England.

They have the best defence in the rugby world.

There backs are all world class.They have found one of the best left-wingers i have ever seen to replace Lomu.His name is Rockoko,him and Doug Howlett can run the Hundred meters in 10 secinds the fastest wingers around

Sundy

Originally posted by kmart6
None of them deserve anything Johnson is a f**king tramp who shouldnt be allowed onto a rugby pitch.He is a disgtace to his country and the game of rugby after what he made his team do at Lansdowne Road

dont be an idiot, if o'driscol did that in twickenham he would be a national hero!
Johnson did it to spook the irish and it worked, i was angry at him too but really it was a stroke of genius!
He is no disgrace to his country either, actually the back bone of the current team and if england win it will be thanks to him mostly!
So much as i dislike the auld enemy i respect them as good rugby players.

kmart6

Originally posted by Sundy
Johnson did it to spook the irish and it worked

What are you on about how did it ''spook'' them,i didnt see any of the players running back into the dreesing rooms when he did it

Sundy

spook means the exact same thing as intimidate!

in·tim·i·date:
means to frighten into submission through threats, insults, or aggressive behavior.

get it now?

Hairy Homer

It was an obnoxious, insulting and derogatory thing to do but so what? He's not paid to be nice, which is probably just as well in his case.

Thing is, he got the psychological upper hand on that occasion but what about next time? It's not impossible that England could come up against Ireland in the World Cup before the final. With everyone's eyes on their prematch antics, what are they going do? The haka?

If we do meet England, with a full strength team, I would fancy us.

Seriously.

kmart6

Originally posted by Sundy
spook means the exact same thing as intimidate!

in·tim·i·date:
means to frighten into submission through threats, insults, or aggressive behavior.

get it now?

No cause that doesnt have anything to do with them beating Ireland that day

I was at the game and England were the better team on the day the Irish lads werent intimidated by them they were just over powered

Sundy

Originally posted by Hairy Homer

Thing is, he got the psychological upper hand on that occasion
If we do meet England, with a full strength team, I would fancy us.

Seriously.

thats exactly what i meant, and mind games are a big part of rugby!
As for the world cup i would fancy ireland against anybody, for perhaps the first time we do actually have a geniune stake for winning if we stay free of injuries!

kmart6

Originally posted by Sundy
thats exactly what i meant, and mind games are a big part of rugby!
As for the world cup i would fancy ireland against anybody, for perhaps the first time we do actually have a geniune stake for winning if we stay free of injuries!

New Zealand alays do the Hacka and that never affects teams and dont say it does because their a good team in their own right and dont need mind games.

As for winning the World Cup,did you see the New Zealand defence in the Tri-Nations.Hardly beatin in the four matches and when it was it was because of excellent attacking by either Austrailia and South Africa.They definatly have the best defence going into the World Cup.

ur mentor

ho hum, sorry to butt inhere. probably should be on another thread. any ideas on flights to oz for melbourne weeken. just got lucky email from buddy in mbourne with free bed-- so now need flights for last weekend in oct 1st week nov. Irish times (fooey) offer packages for €2.5k- 2 rich 4 me. help?