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[Article] We're going to run out of apartments, says report

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  • 23-09-2003 3:05pm
    #1
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,387 ✭✭✭✭


    http://home.eircom.net/content/unison/national/1543527?view=Eircomnet
    We're going to run out of apartments, says report
    From:The Irish Independent
    Tuesday, 23rd September, 2003

    THE number of apartments that can feasibly be built in Dublin's city centre over the next 10 years will not be able to meet the demand, according to a new report.

    Economist and housing expert Peter Bacon has said that a total of 19,000 housing units - 7,000 of those in Dublin 1 and 2 - could be built in the city centre before 2012.

    But the changes in population and the average household size means the city centre will need 21,900 extra housing units by the same year.

    "If the building sector continues to operate at capacity, and based on current planning policy, this potential will be exhausted within the study period (2012)," said Mr Bacon.

    He said that there was the potential for about 6,000 new "high-specification" private residential units within the city centre.

    "It is estimated that these 6,000 units could be completed at a rate to supply in the region of 750 to 850 new high-specification residential units per annum on to the market," the report said.

    "Once the identified sites have been developed, future supply of apartments in Dublin will be severely constrained."

    The report, 'Medium Term Projections of the Supply and Demand for Apartments in Dublin City Centre', also pointed out that rental values for city centre apartments would remain high.

    Anecdotal evidence had suggested apartment rental values may have eased in recent times based on average price trends. But averages tended to exaggerate trends and failed to distinguish between different parts of the market.

    "Furthermore, projections in this report indicate that the potential supply of apartments on identifiable sites in the study area will be insufficient to meet the projected demand up to 2012."


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    #2
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,387 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    http://home.eircom.net/content/unison/national/1543517?view=Eircomnet
    Now singletons make it Sex and the Fair City
    From:The Irish Independent
    Tuesday, 23rd September, 2003
    Martha Kearns

    THE Sex and the City style of living has hit Dublin, with an increase in the number of young single women living alone.

    A new report, carried out by leading economist Peter Bacon, shows that young women represent the biggest increase in population in the city centre since 1996, and that trend is set to continue.

    The number of young women living in Dublin city centre is to increase by 15,000 from 1996 to 2012, according to the report, which was commissioned by Treasury Holdings and is to be published tomorrow.

    It also shows that the percentage of the population in the city that were single in 2002 was at 60.5pc.

    This is well above the national average of 54.7pc.

    The report says the number of children and older people living in the centre of the capital has decreased. But these trends were offset by large, unpredicted inflows of 15 to 24-year-olds - mostly female - as well as those in the 25 to 44-year-old bracket.

    Mr Bacon said there was considerable potential for continued growth in the population simply because of the age structure.

    "But if migration continues at even 50pc of recent rates, then population will grow at about twice the rate forecast by natural increase. If sufficient new housing is provided, then migration can continue at recent rates," the report said.

    In this case, the population is projected to grow by 18,225 by 2007 and by 38,560 by 2012, an increase of almost 44pc on 2002. And by far the largest growth will occur in the 25 to 44 age group.

    "Single young women represent the biggest increase in population of the city centre since 1996 and that is a trend that is likely to continue," found the report, entitled 'Medium Term Predictions of the Supply and Demand for Apartments in Dublin City Centre'.

    The average household size is likely to fall to 1.87 persons by the same year and to 1.5 for those living in apartments.

    This is falling faster than the national rate, with families with young children moving out of the city centre.

    Nationally in 2002, the number of people per household was 2.94.

    "This has been falling for a number of reasons, including lifestyle choices reflected in the falling birth rate and the increasing occurence of apartment living where household size tends to be smaller than in traditional houses," said the report.

    Last year's Census showed that the population of the centre of Dublin had risen to 88,096 - an increase of 22.9pc from 1996.

    This rate of increase is much greater than for the city as a whole, suggesting that the rate of natural population increase cannot account for it.

    Over a six-year period to last year, 11,700 new people came to live in the city centre area.


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