Aurora Alert!

jArgHA

There is a strong possibility of auroral activity (The Northern Lights) even at mid-latitudes (Ireland) over the coming days. There is currently one gigantic sunspot group 484 on the surface of the sun, as mentioned in a previous post, and another group, 486 is emerging on the south-eastern limb.

SpaceWeather.com Reports:
"Solar activity is high. An intense X5-class solar flare erupted today (Oct. 23rd at 8:35 UT) from sunspot 486 near the sun's southeastern limb. The explosion hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. See the movie. Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it could deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field as early as Oct 24th (although the 25th is more likely).

Another CME was already en route when this morning's explosion occured. Pictured right, it was launched on Oct 22nd by an explosion near sunspot 484. Forecasters expect it to arrive on Oct. 24th and possibly trigger a strong geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at middle latitudes should be alert for auroras."

Also
"23:23 23 Oct 2003 DJN-DJ Strong Geomagnetic Storm Expected To Hit Earth Fri

DJ Strong Geomagnetic Storm Expected To Hit Earth Fri
A strong geomagnetic storm was expected to hit Earth on Friday with the potential to affect electrical grids and satellite communications.

One of the largest sunspot clusters in years developed over the past three days and produced a coronal mass ejection, similar to a solar flare, at 3 a.m. EDT (0700 GMT) Wednesday, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The disturbance was expected to produce a geomagnetic storm rated G3. A G5 storm is the strongest.

The storm could make the aurora visible as far south as Oregon and
Illinois in the U.S..

A coronal mass ejection is an explosion of gas and charged particles into space from the corona, the outermost layer of the sun's atmosphere.

A second sunspot cluster not yet visible from Earth could produce more geomagnetic storms in the next two weeks, NOAA said.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires"

Keep yer eyes on the northern skies tonight, we might just be lucky !

jAH

Redshift

If you get to see them they are really something special. The first time I ever saw them was a few weeks ago when I was flying home from the States overnight after they dimmed the cabin lights I was able to see a pretty spectacular light show.

sunbeam

I think we may have a display here in Mayo tonight. I saw some light in the northern sky an hour or so ago. I would wait up but I'm wrecked.

I only remember seeing one proper multicoloured display here. Usually we just get a white/pale green display.

Robbo

Aurora Borealis? At this time of the year? At this time of the day? In this part of the county? Localised entirely in your kitchen?

Can I see?

albertw

Originally posted by Robbo
Can I see?

Probably not tonight. This from Brian O'Halloran (UCD) on uk.sci.astronomy about an hour ago:

Bz is, for the most part, still pointing north - and suppressing any decent auroral activity. Coupled with the fact that the solar wind
density has dropped to quite low levels suggests that widespread displays are not likely tonight. But of course there's always tomorrow evening!

Clear skies.

Brian

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/auroralobserving/

Cheers,
~Al
www.irishastronomy.org/boards

albertw

Thought it might be worth forwarding this, especially since I heard some people on national media yesterday making some very dramatic predictions.



=================================================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================

A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com

Images of this event are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html

25 October 2003

CHANCES FOR A RECORD-SETTING "NORTHERN LIGHTS" SHOW

It is remarkable how often the news media take scattered facts,
throw them together incorrectly and then claim authenticity. Such
was the case in abundance for the space weather storm of 24
October. Media reports that this storm would be a "perfect storm"
or the "once in a 100 year event" were shamefully inaccurate.

An important scientific paper published by a respected researcher
in space physics and publicized recently by NASA was probably the
source of the confusion. The paper discussed conditions around the
largest geomagnetic storm on historic record - the event of 1-2
September 1859. The media incorrectly thought that current solar
activity would produce a storm as large as the 1859 event. To our
knowledge, no professional space weather organization made such a
claim. Nevertheless, the remarkable nature of this rumor quickly
spread through the media until it was as horribly distorted as
looking through a broken mirror. The result of this mass confusion
was an unfounded and popular belief within the public community
that a hugely powerful display of northern lights would appear
around the world. It is, perhaps fittingly ironic, that Mother
Nature refused to comply. We hope this will help clear up the mass
confusion surrounding the event of 24 October.

Initial conditions suggested the activity of 24 October could grow
into a respectable disturbance capable of producing visible
northern lights into the middle latitudes (yet nothing even close
to the 1859 storm was ever anticipated). And in fact, observations
of activity into northern Germany and other locales were received
soon after the diturbance arrived (a result of the stress placed
upon the Earth's magnetosphere by strong solar wind pressure). But
the disturbance quickly shut off the valves and kept them shut
through to the end, disappointing many.

The next solar disturbance from recent days' coronal mass ejection
activity could arrive over the next 24 hours. It is not expected
to be a terribly strong disturbance. The mass from this CME was
directed well away from the Earth, but a component of that
disturbance was detected travelling Earthward. As a result, we
should see a "glancing blow". This could invigorate levels of
auroral activity once again on 25 and 26 October. Observers in
North America may want to peek at the skies during the local
evening hours of Saturday, 25 October. Given how unproductive the
event of 24 October was, it might not be too difficult for this
next anticipated disturbance to exceed the productivity of the 24
October event. Observers are encouraged to keep an eye on
conditions.

Sunspot complex 486 is continuing to spawn less energetic solar
flares and associated coronal mass ejections. It is also
continuing to rotate into a better radial alignment with the
Earth. Nevertheless, most (if not all) of the coronal mass
ejections observed recently have not appeared to contain any
Earthward-directed components.

Either Region 486 or the other large sunspot complex (Region 484)
could produce additional significant solar flare activity over the
coming days. That activity could result in disturbances capable of
producing visible auroral activity over widespread middle latitude
regions.

Don't expect a storm the size of the record-setting 1859 event.
Although these active regions perhaps possess the capability of
spawning such a storm, the odds of it actually occurring are very
remote.


** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **

jArgHA

I was keeping an eye on the Northen skies from around 20:30 last night every 30 mins or so until around 02:00 and saw no auroral activity from clear skies in Galway. Got up once or twice over the course of the night also, but still no joy...

There's still a strong possibility of activity tonight, Saturday, so I'll check again after the pub...

jAH

Redshift

Anybody see anything last night? Not Me:(

sirpsycho

anyone see anything over the last few nights? I didn't see a thing from north county dublin.

i remember seeing aurora a couple of years ago around april time.
nothing this year though...

albertw

anyone see anything over the last few nights?

nope. Though there might be hope yet...


Crosspost from http://www.irishastronomy.org/boards/viewtopic.php?t=230

--
Another alert courtesy of Brian O'Halloran

http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html

"This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade."

And we have cloud...

Note: POTENTIAL! Though no doubt Someone will be on the media predicting power blackouts, mobile network failure etc. like last week!

Cheers,
~Al
_________________
Irish Astronomical Society

sirpsycho

Check this:

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap031029.html

jArgHA

Originally posted by sirpsycho
Check this:

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap031029.html

There was an impact from that CME (in the animation at above link provided by sirpsycho) at around 06:12 this morning, unfortunately I was fast asleep. It caused auroras as far south as New Mexico, and most likely was visible from Ireland before sun-up today...

Still tho, there is a serious amount of activity on the sun at the min and there's a vry good chance we will see some activity from these shores in the coming week(s).

Best way to keep in touch with the possibility of something happening each night is to take a quick look at the following sites, which can approximately predict the time of impact of CME's:

http://www.spaceweather.com
http://www.spacew.com

Slán,
jAH

Chief

Brilliant!
We'll be off up to Malin Head this evening for a wee scout around the Northern skies, could anyone suggest a good time to go up? Cheers!

wolfman

WOW!

Anybody watching at the moment? Something definitely going on

albertw

Originally posted by wolfman
WOW!

Anybody watching at the moment? Something definitely going on

yep, could even see it in clontarf, headding down to wicklow mountains now.

GO OUT LOOK NORTH!

Cheers,
~Al
--
Iirhs Astronomical Society
www.esatclear.ie/~ias

sunbeam

Mayo too, very spectacular.

Johnny_the_fox

anyone got a camera ... any chance of postin up some pictures

Astro1996

this is amazing!!!!!!!!!! red/green spikes and waves this is the best yet, and all over the dublin sky!!!

Peace

Can't see it over here, SCRd area.

Astro1996

Over here in tallaght, and you cloud cleary see a hugh red blob of light appear out of nowhere mixed in with a spikey green glow lasted about 10 minutes and its been off and on for the last 2.5 hours

Tellox

Waterford here. Sky is slightly bluer then usual, shimmering a little bit.

Nothing else of interest though...

albertw

crosspost from www.irishastronomy.org
--
Hi,

http://www.cademuir.net/gallery/aurora/index.html all unprocessed, straight out of the camera.

Activity seems to have been on and off since sunset. John Flannery reported some nice views from Blessington, and later I met up with him and Walter Mee and a couple of others at Djouce, where most of those photos are from.

All seems to have died down now, but keep checking :-)

On the downside I was having trouble loading film into my SLR, and a car drove past to show that the slide film I had previously loaded had ripped, and the headlights ruined any chance of recovering anything. Ah well there goes the pics of the observing at Birr, the sunspots, the lightening, and some of the aurora... ah well :-(

Cheers,
~Al

p.s. if youre wondering what the red line in img_1870 is, its John holding a red torch climbing over a fence getting out of a field :-)

sirpsycho

Great display last nite! Missed the red 'blob' though

Thanx for sharing your images albertw, great pics!

sirpsycho

another one is heading our way according to spaceweather.com!!

comet

Missed all this activity, heard about it on the news last night, had a quick look outside but it was cloudy and street lights were bright, couldn't see anything, will there be another display tonight?

Lucutus

I was in the same boat as Comet there, sky looked a little bright, no display tho, Dublin, rathgar area.

If it is to continue into tonight, where would be a good place to go to view? (range within reason!).

albertw

Originally posted by sirpsycho
another one is heading our way according to spaceweather.com!!

Yep indeed. Another crosspost from irishastronomy.org :

--
Hi all.

What a show last night - off to the photo lab soon! Another heads up - the Sun unleashed a X-10 flare @2049 UT last night! Initial estimates put the speed of the full-halo CMR @ 1948 km/s - it should probably arrive after 1800 UT tonight. No word yet on likely turning of the IMF. The rain is upposed to clear from the north later tonight, so there's a chance...

Best of luck!

Brian O'Halloran
Dunsink Observatory

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/auroralobserving/

jArgHA

All that was visible from Cork City was Murphy's Nebula, aka clouds

I could spot the green glow behind the clouds clearly before cloud cover got thick, but have yet to properly see my first Aurora...

albertw

Originally posted by Lucutus
If it is to continue into tonight, where would be a good place to go to view? (range within reason!).

Well strictly speaking its not continuing, there was another ejection before 9pm last night, which is due to hit the Earth later today.

As for where to go? As far as you can with an un lightpolluted northern sky. I was able to see it fairly clearly on Dalkey hill last night, and I've seen reports from someone who was able to make out structures in it from Howth Head.

So either end of the DART line would probably be the easiest from Dublin, though if you have the time there are busses to Blessington and Eniskerry. I'm not too familiar with Northside buss routes but anywhere north of the airport (Naul area) would also be good I imagine. Though the further away from Dublin the better, John Flannery (South Dublin Astronomical Society) drove out into Kildare at one stage last night to try and avoid the sky glow from Dublin.

The latest alert http://solar.spacew.com/cme/ estimates tonights activity to start about 4pm and go on to 4am, with a peak at 6pm tonight. Unfortunately the weather may not clear up in time (still raining in Dublin). From the met office "Widespread rain this evening and tonight, further heavy outbreaks in places, totals reaching 20 - 40 mm locally. Clearer drier weather persisting along the North coast, however, and gradually extending Southwards to many other areas overnight."

Feel free to post any reports or pictures to the www.irishastronomy.org board as well btw.

Cheers,
~Al
--
Irish Astronomical Society
www.esatclear.ie/~ias

Lucutus

Yea, the weather thwarted my efforts. Thanks for the advise tho, very helpful and informitive.

albertw

Originally posted by Lucutus
Yea, the weather thwarted my efforts.

I gave up early last night too and went for a few drinks instead!

Some more pictures by the way at http://www.irishastronomy.org/user_resources/viewFiles.php

Cheers,
~Al