McGuinness - United Ireland by 2016

stuartfanning

See the article which follows. What does everyone thing of Martin McGuinness' prediction? A bit optimistic I think. Also the SF Manifesto, pretty good from their point of view - I think.
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Martin Mcguinness Predicts 'United Ireland by 2016'

By Dan McGinn, Ireland Political Editor, PA News


There could be a united Ireland by 2016, Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness predicted tonight.

With nine days left to Northern Ireland’s Assembly Election, the Mid Ulster MP said at his party’s manifesto launch republicans could attain their goal by the centenary of the 1916 Easter Rising.

“As we develop the north-south implementation bodies and people co-operate and work together, I think people will see more and more the logic of that,” Mr McGuinness said.

“Certainly it is our view that it can be accomplished over a short period. Gerry Adams has said 2016 and I think that is achievable.”

Sinn Fein’s manifesto called on the Irish Government to produce a Green Paper soon on unity.

The party also vowed to:

Create more cross-border implementation bodies on policing, justice, agriculture, rural development, the social economy, pollution control, mental health, further and higher education, communications infrastructure and energy.

Secure representation in the Oireachtas (the Irish Houses of Parliament) and voting rights for people in Northern Ireland in Irish Presidential elections.

Mr McGuinness’s united Ireland prediction was challenged by unionists.

The Democratic Unionist MP for North Belfast Nigel Dodds reacted: “Sinn Fein will not be getting their united Ireland.

“The unionist people will stand steadfast.

“The Sinn Fein manifesto is another wish list of concessions to republicans but many unionists will be saying: Haven’t they had enough concessions? When is it all going to end?”

Ulster Unionist David McNarry dismissed Mr McGuinness’s comments as a “pipe dream”.

“My children’s grandchildren won’t even see a united Ireland,” the Strangford Assembly candidate said.

“Catholics I am talking to on the doorsteps aren’t interested and many are voting unionist.

“The recent census figures dashed any republican hopes of a united Ireland. It would be more honest for them to tell their supporters that they are working for peace here and have ended their armed struggle to achieve a unitary state.”

Sinn Fein continued to clash tonight with the rival SDLP over the issue of how their supporters should vote in the proportional representation election.

With transfers between candidates down the ballot paper likely to determine the final seats in Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies, Sinn Fein chairman Mitchel McLaughlin said his party wanted to maximise the nationalist vote.

However, he accused the SDLP of turning its back on a nationalist voting pact.

“We have always argued that we should maximise the nationalist vote,” the Foyle Assembly candidate said.

“We would have preferred a formal voting pact with the SDLP but we have been rebuffed every time we have offered that.”

Martin McGuinness also criticised the SDLP, insisting he had not heard his nationalist rivals encouraging their supporters to transfer to Sinn Fein.

However, the SDLP’s director of elections Brid Rodgers denied there had been any formal offer of a voting pact.

She said: “Sinn Fein never offered a voting pact. They said to us they were thinking about discussing the possibility of a voting pact with the SDLP.

“So it is clear what people must do if they want to protect the Agreement and beat the DUP in key constituencies and that is vote SDLP or transfer to us.

“Sinn Fein is at sixes and sevens about where they stand on the issue of pro-Agreement transfers and are putting the Agreement in jeopardy when they have Gerry Adams urging people not to transfer to (SDLP chairman) Alex Attwood in West Belfast.

“The SDLP is very clear where it stands, advising supporters to transfer to pro-Agreement candidates in their constituencies, including Sinn Fein.”

Agent Smith

i'd say there's more chance of me eating yellow snow.....


nice idea.... but cant see it happening

Villain

Could happen, but we can't afford it so it probably won't

Johnny_the_fox

It was meant to be around 2007-2010...

Because during the 70's - a Catholic families are having on average have 5+ children in their families .. a Protestants on average would have around 2….meaning the Catholics would be gaining on the population front..

*in theory* in 2007-2010 would Catholics out number the Protestants... therefore be the majority and therefore vote for a united ireland

MDR

Some how I think our ability to pay for 'Norn Iron' will be of secondary concern, if SF et al. manage to cagole the popluce of the North to vote for a unity Ireland (i.e. convince them they really want to give up the subsidies from Westminster, not likely, no matter who the people in question swear allegience to).

mike65

Pah! The usual PR sh1te...suppose the Easter Rising had taken place in 1899..would that make 2099 the appropriate Unification year? :rolleyes:

It'll happen only when enough ppl on both sides of the border reckon its got intrinsical and practical merit. No need to worry for a while then!

Mike.

depaly

Yes....get the British to apologize a thousand times between now and 2016.....enough Unionists either emigrate or are intimidated into submission.....and then get the British Government to bankroll the changeover to a Unitary state..... You know - the usual Nationalist / Republican hypocrisy......

Zombrex

I would say that instead of a United Ireland, we will see N.I move further away from Britian to become a more independent state, rather than back into the arms of the Republic. The way Europe is going, I think the individual borders of countries are going to become less and less important, and it will become easier for N.I to exist as an independent entity.

Of course you will still get the Nationalists and Unionist extremist, but do they actually represent that much of the population in N.I anymore?

TomF

I'd say the return of Ireland to being a single country on the one island will be happening within the fairly near future. We have to wait for the Unionist nasties to wither away with old age, of course, and you can see this happening when you look at the grey hair at Unionist political conventions. The other day on TV I saw Mark Durkin out talking to people somewhere in public when a very refined and prominent Unionist, in coat and tie with umbrella in hand, came up to him and threw out some Biblical quote and Durkin tried to reply, but the Unionist walked away and over his shoulder shouted something like "You don't know your Bible!" Durkin had the bemused look on his face of a man who has just seen a perfect example of the "No surrender" mentality at work. Thank God it was a recorded moment, and I wish RTE would play it at the beginning of every News at 6.01 broadcast!

Dave Roe

It's interesting that McGuinness cites the North-South implentation bodies success as being a factor in argung for a United Ireland. Can't this also be seen as a good argument for returning to the Union?

I read through some of Gerry's recent book looking for some idea of what his vision of a United Ireland actually is but it's not something he goes into much detail about. I've very little time for him but I don't think he actually holds much hatred for Prtotestant/Unionist Irish people. Nothing like their feelings for him anyway.

It seems to me that those people who talk about a United Ireland in the mediium term - within the next twenty years - seem to be imagining something that I cannot conceive of at all. Would such a state include all the counties, and have some sort of Unionist party or parties in a 32-county Dáil? That's just not going to happen. The debate of whther it will or not always seems to revolve around whether britain will "Abandon" Unionists in the North, or whether a Dublin gvernment could or would want to absorb the six counties. But the real problem is that close-on to one million protestants in Ulster just won't accept rule from Dublin. How could they be coerced?

"Reunification" is an idea with no future. What we should be working towards is a blurring of boundaries between Britain and Ireland - a reunion which would bring us back to a closer relationship within a greater commonwealth of peoples within both islands. Since 1916 the nature of both "Britain" and "Ireland" has changed enormously. We're not the same people we were then, and they are not the same counties. We are living in a fundamentally changed Europe in which the idea ofa nation is fundamentally altered.

Why can we not allow dual nationality within both countries - with neighbours professing allegiance to a president and/or a monarch? What's so hard about that?
Both countires would have to make a lot of chanmges and many people would have to give up some aspirations and ideals but there isn't really another way to get to where we have to go.

LFCFan

why would the people of Northern Ireland, whether Catholic, protestant, nationalist or Unionist want to be part of the Republic? They have a much better infrastructure and the country get's shed loads of money from Britain. If they became part of the Republic, the roads would start to disintigrate, €ircon would be there new telco, half their hospitals would probably close, their insurance would go through the roof, their schools would fall apart and they'd have to pay €150 to RTE for the privalege of watching sh!te. I could go on but you know the story! United Ireland is a dream but it's not practical and it would only result in a return to widespread sectarian trouble. NI should become a seperate state and run itself.

Genghis

Originally posted by LFCFan
why would the people of Northern Ireland, whether Catholic, protestant, nationalist or Unionist want to be part of the Republic? They have a much better infrastructure and the country get's shed loads of money from Britain. If they became part of the Republic, the roads would start to disintigrate, €ircon would be there new telco, half their hospitals would probably close, their insurance would go through the roof, their schools would fall apart and they'd have to pay €150 to RTE for the privalege of watching sh!te. I could go on but you know the story! United Ireland is a dream but it's not practical and it would only result in a return to widespread sectarian trouble. NI should become a seperate state and run itself.

1. My experience this summer (driving throughout NI, but also Leitrim, Donegal and Louth) would be that the roads in the Republic are of a higher standard than those in NI - contrast particularly either side of the Dublin Belfast road.

2. Isn't complaining about the NHS a UK pastime, anyway (it can't be any better than ours)

3. €150 is less than they pay to the BBC - approx UK licence is €180 (£116)

4. OK, you got me on Eircom!

As a serious point, I do think that we have an overall better standard of living down here, and whats more, I don't think the Norhern Irish people see that yet. 10, even 5 years ago was a different story.

LFCFan

Originally posted by Genghis
1. My experience this summer (driving throughout NI, but also Leitrim, Donegal and Louth) would be that the roads in the Republic are of a higher standard than those in NI - contrast particularly either side of the Dublin Belfast road.

Depends on what parts of Ireland your're driving on and it's not just the surface. How many Traffic Light controlled roundabouts are there in N.Ireland? Are their main routes hindered with roundabouts?

2. Isn't complaining about the NHS a UK pastime, anyway (it can't be any better than ours)

The NHS is bad. Our's is worse. Also, here we pay rediculous money for mediocre dental treatment when you can go up the north and get it done for half the price at twice the standard.

3. €150 is less than they pay to the BBC - approx UK licence is €180 (£116)

I'd rather pay €180 for the BBC than €150 for RTE. There's no comparison in the 2 stations.

4. OK, you got me on Eircom!

Which has massive implications for other aspects of the economy.

Also, you neglected to mention insurance. One of the biggest factors in so many Irish companies going out of business. Also, I forgot VAT and VRT. Higher drink prices. Don't think people will want to go from paying £2.20 for a pint to €5.

What would be so great about a United Ireland anyway? I think it's gone way past the stage where it is viable. We have to use our heads and not our hearts in this situation.

Gearoid

Well I think a united Ireland is going to happen some where a long the line tho 2016 is a bit optimistic, tbh with the borders around Europe becomng less of concrete thing its bound to happen in some way tho probably not in the flashy republican view of things. It'll happen out of common sense because as an Island it'd make more sense to have the 2 economies centrally controlled and that. The unionist arguement that we'd drag them down and make "peasants" of them is just a joke we're as developed as they are.

Genghis

Originally posted by LFCFan
We have to use our heads and not our hearts in this situation.

You surely can't believe that the majority of the people who will ultimately decide this (the good people of Northern Ireland) will simply use their heads before their hearts on this matter. There are thousands of nationalists and republicans who would vote for a United Ireland at any cost (personal, social, economic), and thousands Unionists would want to remain part of the UK even if they had to forego any advantage (personal, social or economic) of a United Island. In the middle, voters may well be persuaded by an objective, global assessment of benefits and costs of both options.

However, selecting 5 or 6 criteria, making a subjective opinion on these and then concluding that the entire project is undesireable is not 'using your head' either.

gom

Being Catholic doesn't automatically make u vote for a United Ireland. I do recall a large number of Irish Republican Revivalists in the 1800 and the Rising being Protestants...

I for one will vote NO to a UNITED IRELAND....
I am a Catholic and Irish...
But N. Ireland and the Republic are fundementally different places.
Why not cooperate to such high levels such as Germany and France currently are. Centralising states and powers around a single idea of IRISH-WHITE-CATHOLIC-ISLAND...

Ireland has to be one of the only countroies in Europe with a single cultural identity.
its a discrase....

I think that some day there may just be a vote on this. And yes it might happen on 2016, Easter. But something tells me you won't see a united Ireland. Nation states are on the way out ever since the fall of the wall, and even before the Cold War got into full swing.

Regionalism is the only sure way to ensure people are getting a fair deal. I would advocate a vote for a "Free Dublin". To long have we been held hostage by the culchies. I mean I want Dublin money to stay in Dublin. The City of Dublin and The City of Galway are the only two places that voted against the Nice Referendum 2. We are different and should be recognised for that.
I am a Dub first. Irish second...
No question...

How about a proclaimation of an Independant Dublin...
Any Boys in Blue??

this post is my REAL view so please treat as-such but it has some spin to make it witty

LFCFan

Originally posted by Genghis
You surely can't believe that the majority of the people who will ultimately decide this (the good people of Northern Ireland) will simply use their heads before their hearts on this matter. There are thousands of nationalists and republicans who would vote for a United Ireland at any cost (personal, social, economic), and thousands Unionists would want to remain part of the UK even if they had to forego any advantage (personal, social or economic) of a United Island. In the middle, voters may well be persuaded by an objective, global assessment of benefits and costs of both options.

However, selecting 5 or 6 criteria, making a subjective opinion on these and then concluding that the entire project is undesireable is not 'using your head' either.

Well if I had to choose between the services, infrastructure, prices, health, schools etc etc of the Republic and the North I would go with the North. We are gradually being destroyed down here by an incompetant government. Saying all this though, this is my opinion if the vote was held tomorrow. By 2016 things could be a whole lot different and the Republic might actually have caught up with the rest of the world and would be an attractive proposition for all the people of Northern Ireland. Maybe by then secretarianism will have died out. The likes of Paisly won't be around anymore either. 13 years is a long time so having a discussion now about what might happen in 13 years time is pointless.

Qadhafi

12/13 years is a long time away. The republic has progressed a great deal since the 90's and its getting better all the time. I have no doubt that in another 10 years we will have all our roads built, hospitals rail etc sorted out.

In the north things will no doubt be normalised. However it remains to be seen whether Catholics in the north are happy with what they have got and dont want to change.

Sinn Fein's 32 county republic is a 'pipe dream'. If a united Ireland ever happens it wont be their idea of a 32 county republic but an agreed ireland. Like come on, does anyone actually take their other policies seriously. I remember reading once Sinn Fein thinks Ireland should leave the EU (duh!).

what ever happenss I just hope the likes of the DUP/and Sinn Fein vote decreases all the time. Both are obviously different sides of the same coin.

Victor

Originally posted by LFCFan
Also, you neglected to mention insurance. One of the biggest factors in so many Irish companies going out of business. Also, I forgot VAT and VRT.

don't worry, insurance isn't easy in the North either ... and then you have all those Norhterners coming south for the cheaper petrol ....

gurramok

what ever happenss I just hope the likes of the DUP/and Sinn Fein vote decreases all the time. Both are obviously different sides of the same coin

Well, one of them promotes the agreement and the other opposes

Ireland has to be one of the only countroies in Europe with a single cultural identity.

Huh ?
There are far bigger countries within the EU with 1 cultural identity.
Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece to name a few.*

*Excluding ex-pats who flock to the sun

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
Italy, Spain

Italy has a distinct north / south devide. Spain has about 6 different identities (Catalan, Castillian, Basque, Galician, German ....)

LFCFan

Originally posted by Victor
don't worry, insurance isn't easy in the North either

what are you on about? They pay a lot less for insurance up there. There are a few Northeners working with me and they are always laughing at how much we have to pay for insurace down here while they pay feck all for higher powered cars up there.

spanner

as the trends go the pro nationaist vote in the north will eventually out weigh the unionist vote. and if the nationists at this time feel they do want a united ireland and a majority of the southern electorate agree what will we do then, will we do like the brits did and create a police state in the north to keep the unionist population in line, i hope not.
i think what people are saying is that the decision people will make will be based on economic reasoning, but lets face it, as much as nationists here in the south say that it would cost us alot for a united ireland, it has been a dream of most nationist people for a united ireland so economic conerns might be secondary, as someone said its not always about money.

i think if we want to see how to finacially different states have united together we only have to our eu parnter germany.
oboivously the reunification process has had a bad effect on the economy, a capitalist country trying to intergating with a communist country will obivously bring problems but i dont think germans would trade been a divided people for a stronger economy

maybe someone knows a bit more about how the reunification process in germany is going. i think it is the closest thing we would have to a template if we ever do reunifcate

LFCFan

Originally posted by spanner
we only have to our eu parnter germany.
oboivously the reunification process has had a bad effect on the economy, a capitalist country trying to intergating with a communist country will obivously bring problems but i dont think germans would trade been a divided people for a stronger economy

But people don't get shot if they try to flee Northern Ireland and there's no Wall in the way. There was a lot more incentive for a unified Germany then there is for a United Ireland. Don't get me wrong. If you take away economic reasoning then I would love to see an 32 county Ireland but in situations like this I tend to use my head.

ali.g

theres too much talk about a united ireland.....its all too much at the same time tryin make ireland united an get the british rule out once and for all.....they should concentrate on gettin the british rule out once and for all .....just wipe them off this island altogether...then they can try and go about seeing if the north should be independant or united........one thing at a time their tryin to do everything at once which in turn ends up failing......as too many people are wanting too many different things.....

Victor

Originally posted by LFCFan
But people don't get shot if they try to flee Northern Ireland and there's no Wall in the way.

More likely to be shot if you don't flee

Originally posted by LFCFan
what are you on about? They pay a lot less for insurance up there. There are a few Northeners working with me and they are always laughing at how much we have to pay for insurace down here while they pay feck all for higher powered cars up there.

Try getting fire insurance for your business up north (where things have the nasty habit of getting burnt down).

spanner

Originally posted by LFCFan
But people don't get shot if they try to flee Northern Ireland and there's no Wall in the way. There was a lot more incentive for a unified Germany then there is for a United Ireland. Don't get me wrong. If you take away economic reasoning then I would love to see an 32 county Ireland but in situations like this I tend to use my head.

yea your right the circumstances were and are a lot different, there was a broad consesus to unite germany,,,, i think

(a question i always had for someone who understands germans especially west germans how did they feel about reunification?)

but i think it could act as a model economically on how they intergated. because if the day does come when we will unite we will need a strong leader to do the job, like helmot cole.
the only leader in ireland i think who might be able to do this would be gerry adams and as much as i think he is a skillful politican, i really dont want to see him and sinn fein in power, especially not in power to unite the country.

come on can you see bertie or enda kenny been able to steer ireland to reunification

LFCFan

Originally posted by spanner
come on can you see bertie or enda kenny been able to steer ireland to reunification

They'd find it difficult steering a car (if they weren't driven everywhere) nevermind unification.

spanner

Originally posted by LFCFan
They'd find it difficult steering a car (if they weren't driven everywhere) nevermind unification.

lol

rcunning03

1. My experience this summer (driving throughout NI, but also Leitrim, Donegal and Louth) would be that the roads in the Republic are of a higher standard than those in NI - contrast particularly either side of the Dublin Belfast road.

lay off the hallucinogenics

my experience of driving in the north is totally different, i was amazed to see a roadsign with directions and distance(admittedly in miles and not kilometers) before the appropiate turn, instead of behind a bush 50 meters after the turn.

Also with ni insurance, if you have a full lience you can drive a car, as their policies are all open plan, thats why so many young people can drive. forgive me if im wrong on the above point but any ni person i meet says it is so.

daveydub

Well I think its great when politicans have foresight and are ambitious! Of course I don't believe reunification will happen by 2016 and thankfully the DUP have ranked highly in the elections it kinda throws a spanner in the works for the foreseeable future... Not that I approve of the DUP's methods of bashing our Republic whenever they can but I generally support their ethos of No to terrorists in government and No to reunification. And the later is partly due to my selfishness, in that I would not like to see the resources and revenue generated here being sent 'up there' to police divided communities and wastfully spent on security requirements that we don't have or need now. Whats wrong with our country the way it is? Anyhow with European integration we are essentially all Europeans regardless of what side of borders we live on.