Assembly election count updates

Sparks

Originally posted by Cork
Blair & Ahern need to leave SF and the DUP come to an agreement. If not - Bertie & Tony need to bring in some form of joint authority.

That'd be a neat turn-around even for Bertie - who only two days ago said that the elections "are the will of the people of Northern Ireland".

Cork

Originally posted by Sparks
That'd be a neat turn-around even for Bertie - who only two days ago said that the elections "are the will of the people of Northern Ireland".

In fairness - Southern Politicians including Pat Rabbitt and Mary O Rourke did the bit for the SDLP.

At a risk of repeating myself - I feel that the result does nothing for the Good Friday Agreement.

Jeffery Donaldson is now even challanging David Trimble for party leadership.

Paisley will not talk to SF. It is all very dis-heartening.

picasso

This is all a bit depressing but there may well be some good points to take from it. An earlier poster said that this proves that the old idea about the troubles being caused by a few nutters has been shown to be a lie, and to an extent thats true . In the past people would have been afraid to publicly admit support for SF or DUP , as they would have been marking themselves as targets , so this is all really an unexpected by-product of the great changes made in the last few years.

If the DUP aren't willing to do the business , they will be punished when the next set of elections come around. The two governments need to show that GFA is the only show in town , still supported by 70% of the population. Most importantly, if certain elements of the unionist community want to retreat to the comfort zone of direct rule, they should be treated like every other part of the UK - drop the subsidies , the ridiculous number of public service jobs, and then see whether they're willing to get back on the gravy train of the past few years. Essentially , Britain is paying the lads off to keep the peace, but now they go and throw it back in their face.

So really , its not a vote for violence & extremism , it s just a bit more honesty and a lot of spoilt brat mentality.....hopefully they'll all wake up soon.

Yoda

If the Good Friday Agreement is UK government policy, couldn't the Prime Minister make Paisley speak to Adams? Invite them both secretly to a talk, and lock the door until they agree to play nice?

Peter Robinson of the DUP has given many interviews in the last few days and this mornings on Breakfast with Frost was a typical example.

He was asked what were his alternatives??
His answer was to hum and haw and then say it's not appropriate to answer that here.

In other words reading between the lines he was saying again that a vote for the DUP is a vote for direct rule and no answers.

They seem to be happy to block any assembly activity that might involve SF.

Robinson also gave a reply I've heard from him before regarding the South African peace process being an outstanding sucess with out a single gun being handed in.

Robinson said to Frost..." well I've been to South Africa and De Klerk said to me that we made an awfull mistake in South Africa, not to insist that weapons were decommissioned first " :rolleyes:

Whats he saying there?? that an Apartheid leader who to give him his due aided the restoration of a free society in South Africa has learned from unionists that the Apartheid regime could have held out there much longer if only De klerk could have insisted on decommissioning like the unionists... :rolleyes:
It's very transparent there to me, that this is playing into the hands of Sinn Féin who are at the end of the day going to look reasonable in the face of hard line unionist intransigence.

It gives Sinn Féin the legitimacy in my view to say that the likes of the DUP in terms of Government don't want a catholic about the place.

From looking at the figures it will only take further couple of percent leakage from the SDLP to SF for to make them the largest party in another election there, crazy as that may have seemed a few years ago.
Did anyone ever think they'd see the day that they would overall beat the official unionists into third place in terms of first preference votes...?

I would guess if Trimble holds out, and given that under the circumstances he has actually done well to hold his party's percentage of the vote... we will see a D'haunt mechanism with an SF first minister and an official unionist deputy in a few elections time.

That is assuming that the IRA in tandem with their advisors in SF continue to be clever and negotiate more decommisssioning in return for say the closure of a few more army bases , a scenario that might persuade more moderate unionists away from the DUP and back to Trimble.
I wonder what Paisley would think of that

mm

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from Man
Whats he saying there?? that an Apartheid leader who to give him his due aided the restoration of a free society in South Africa has learned from unionists that the Apartheid regime could have held out there much longer if only De klerk could have insisted on decommissioning like the unionists...
It's very transparent there to me, that this is playing into the hands of Sinn Féin who are at the end of the day going to look reasonable in the face of hard line unionist intransigence.

Living in a UUP constituency as I do, but having listened to DUP rhetoric for as long as anyone, I am inclined to say that the DUP, where the IRA to hand over guns tomorrow, would not agree to sit as the greater or lesser party of government with Sinn Fein in the corresponding role. The fact is that the DUP can stall for as long as they like because they get paid 70% of their wages from the seats in the Assembly regardless that it is closed, they can justify the stalling by throwing every possible object at Sinn Fein which comes to mind and there are plenty, and all the while their face with the unionist voting population increases.

The agreement has failed and was never going to work in the first place, not simply because of DUP intransigence but because it is addressing the problem from the wrong angle; we have no more patience for the politics of bigotry and universally right wing economics which the Assembly institutionalised through the D'Hondt system.

swiss

This is a worrying but not unforseen development. Without significant concessions from Sinn Féin, moderate to hardline Unionism was beginning to lose patience with that party. David Trimble did manage to keep up enough pressure on SF to force some token acts of decommissioning, but the problem has always been that if the IRA decommission 100 rifles, who is to say that they do not have another 100 rifles elsewhere. The issue is trust. A significant number of Unionists still do not trust SF enough to believe that they won't simply return to the bomb and the bullet if things don't go their way. And since making things "go their way" would involve a united Ireland, some Unionists feared that the price of continued concessions to Nationalists would be too high.

The obvious question that must be asked of the DUP is that, since they are unwilling to back the GFA, what alternative are they going to provide to the day to day governance of Northern Ireland? Are they going to sit in Westminister or Stormont?

Originally posted by Éomer of Rohan:

we have no more patience for the politics of bigotry and universally right wing economics which the Assembly institutionalised through the D'Hondt system.

Apparantly the electorate of Northern Ireland have abundant patience for such bigotry. This election, like any other in Northern Ireland, has highlighted the bitter sectarianism that still exists by weakening the moderate pro-Agreement parties.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from Swiss
The obvious question that must be asked of the DUP is that, since they are unwilling to back the GFA, what alternative are they going to provide to the day to day governance of Northern Ireland? Are they going to sit in Westminister or Stormont?

The DUP does not and has never had another plan - even from the inception of the referendum of the Belfast Agreement, the argument against the DUP was that they had no alternative. The problem now is that people are so fed up with sectarian politics that they vote for the DUP on the Unionist side which had the most convincing (for Unionists, cf the Shankill / West Belfast seat they gained) anti-agreement rhetoric and in terms of republicans who have seen 'no movement' as a problem created by the former party of government which was the SDLP, hence the Sinners increased vote.

Quoted from Swiss
Apparantly the electorate of Northern Ireland have abundant patience for such bigotry. This election, like any other in Northern Ireland, has highlighted the bitter sectarianism that still exists by weakening the moderate pro-Agreement parties.

I beg to differ; the election of Dr Kieran Deeney as a socially progressive single issue candidate, the nine thousand votes cast for Eamonn McCann (not the greates of politicians nor the most astute yet preferable to a sectarian any day) as a Socialist Environmental Alliance candidate, the votes cast for the Women's Coalition and Green Party among others show that there is a strong anti-sectarian tendency even at this time of extreme 'tension' which I would respectfully submit is the creation of the politicians themselves rather than any condition on the ground, which has been relatively quiet of late.

It is the provocative rhetoric which causes people to panic, or near thereto and cast their votes for the parties who are presenting the jingoistic 'other way' instead of those which actually have another way, though this is absolutely in keeping with the theories of Marx (ie not until a time of crisis in capitalism etc etc). Even the parties adherent to the system such as the Workers Party, WC, PUP!!, GP and Tories were ignored this time around because of the political leaderships which get the most airtime and column inches. Those same leaderships were the ones from whence the strident political tones were emanating.

This is just one more example of the people of Northern Ireland, not being divided by a real hate between one another but being divided by the divisions which the current political parties create through their placing of, for example, non-existent deadlines and bickering and claims that 'doomsday is nigh' (scaled down obviously to fit Northern Ireland and their respectively republican or loyalist tendencies).

Evidence for this can be found in the decline of the PUP for example, traditionally a party of the 'protestant' working class which masks its own right wing intolerances with left wing economic policies which did NOT claim that things were about to fail to gain votes from worried voters.

growler

What I cannot fathom is the mindset of those who went and voted DUP. There seems to be so little support among the unionist community to try and make a decent for future for the part of Ireland they live in. My English colleagues cannot believe that Paisley is now the leader of the largest party in the north, he’s a political dinosaur, a bigot and an embarrassment to 21st century politics anywhere in the world.

The strangest thing about democracy in the north is that you can vote in a party that, in effect, opposes democratic rule. I don’t believe that the DUP will speak with SF on any level that would be a true power sharing at Stormont, the DUP will block any and all progress, resulting in some form of direct rule and a disenfranchised nationalist electorate.

Eomer mentions the provocative rhetoric of northern politics, but surely the people of the north after spending a lifetime listening to the rhetoric of both sides are able to see that a north free of widespread violence can only continue to exist if meaningful dialogue continues.

I am also fascinated by the 60 something % turnout, why would so many stay away from such an important election, who was it that stayed away...was it the moderate voters who felt there was no middle ground parties left (except a failing Alliance Party).

I can’t see what good can come of this, unless you’re a diehard loyalist willing to sacrifice all for a union jack and no future.

Éomer of Rohan

Quoted from growler
What I cannot fathom is the mindset of those who went and voted DUP. There seems to be so little support among the unionist community to try and make a decent for future for the part of Ireland they live in. My English colleagues cannot believe that Paisley is now the leader of the largest party in the north, he’s a political dinosaur, a bigot and an embarrassment to 21st century politics anywhere in the world.

The strangest thing about democracy in the north is that you can vote in a party that, in effect, opposes democratic rule. I don’t believe that the DUP will speak with SF on any level that would be a true power sharing at Stormont, the DUP will block any and all progress, resulting in some form of direct rule and a disenfranchised nationalist electorate.

The mindset of the unionist population has always been determined by a fear of reprisal by the nationalist population - traditionally, up until 1922, the unionists were in a permanent minority and fears of repeats of 1641 or the seige of Derry or the Catholic Defender attacks on villages or 1798-esque rebellions have forever permeated that consciousness - and more importantly, this has always been something that extremist sectarians on the unionist side have been able to play upon - and what better to fear than the wrongs done against catholics from '22 to '72 under the Stormont government, the same wrongs which every school child in the North learns about. Why was Lundy so villified? Why was Terence O'Neill brought down? The unionists feared giving their age old opponents breathing space, meanwhile telling their own working people that this was something they should fear but that 'our' [unionist] government would look after them. Paisley began, continued and will end his career playing on exactly the same harp; give no quarter or we are in trouble.

Quoted from Growler
I am also fascinated by the 60 something % turnout, why would so many stay away from such an important election, who was it that stayed away...was it the moderate voters who felt there was no middle ground parties left (except a failing Alliance Party).

Voter apathy, voters sickened at the sectarianism which is only veneered and never quite hidden, voters who don't want any one of the present parties in government; remember that the smaller parties did not run in every constituency, not even between them. Only the larger parties did that.