what will 3G do to the regular phones?

flogen · 07-12-2003 1:24am #1

Now that 3G phones are making their way into the market (although slowly), what effect will they have on the regular phones that we all use at the moment?
Will '2G' handsets drop in price to make way for the better technology? will call cost and text costs drop as people start to use video confrencing etc? and, in time will the 2g networks be cut off as analoge tv will be in favor of digital in afew years (in the UK anyway)?

and if all this is bound to happen, how long will it take?
or will 3G flop just like picture phones did all those years ago, will they be seen as a pointless luxury?

Flogen

OfflerCrocGod · 07-12-2003 1:29am

Umm what I'm interested in is will these new phones mean I'm likely to get my network(Metor) pushing me toward these newer phones by giving me steep discounts/free phone in replacement for my old phone.....which I also got for free:D. I'm a cheap bastard and dont intend of ever getting rid of my phone unless I get a free, better one in its place:p.

flogen · 07-12-2003 2:07am

do meteor have a 3g licence?

I was told before that it will be mid 2004 before any push towards the regular phone user is made, and until then it will just be for the very elite businessperson. I wonder how far they are prepared to go to get it going, and i guess free phones and major discounts can not be ruled out.

one very interesting fact is that the advent of 3G brings with it a new network, 3 (you may have seen their British tv campaign, the one with the T-rex song on it). Them having the licence along with Vodafone and o2 is why i wonder if meteor have one, i thought there was only 3 and besides the fee was amazingly high, so high i could only see international players such as vodaphone and o2 being able to afford it (i think 3 comprises of some multi-billion euro consortium of Japanese businessmen or something!)

Flogen

crowbar · 07-12-2003 9:23am

meteor don't have a 3g license, which is why there were rumours that 3 were going to buy them up to instantly get a network with cell sites, infrastructure, customers, etc. actually they didn't even apply for one. all 3g license holders have to begin 'commercial service' by 1/1/2004, however 3 only have to provide 53% demographic coverage by 12/2005 and the other two by 6/2008! (source: http://www.comreg.ie/_fileupload/publications/odtr0196.pdf )

3uk is owned by a consortium with hutchison (who are based in hong kong), ntt docomo (a japanese telco) and kpn mobile (who are dutch) however in ireland it's wholly owned by hutchinson. hutchinson have launched networks in oz, italy and uk so far, and have 3g licenses in loads of other countries ... that's some money they must have spent!

there's such a shortage of handsets at the moment that its affecting 3g takeup in other countries. the few 3g phones i have seen are rubbish - they are so bulky, almost like the bricks you could get when mobiles first came out. it's unlikely 2g will be killed off any time soon, certainly not before 3g coverage across the country becomes good and that's many years away. after all, how long did it take to kill off the analogue mobile network?

JTMan · 07-12-2003 7:01pm

Originally posted by crowbar
meteor don't have a 3g license, which is why there were rumours that 3 were going to buy them up to instantly get a network with cell sites, infrastructure, customers, etc. actually they didn't even apply for one. all 3g license holders have to begin 'commercial service' by 1/1/2004, however 3 only have to provide 53% demographic coverage by 12/2005 and the other two by 6/2008! (source: http://www.comreg.ie/_fileupload/publications/odtr0196.pdf )

As I have said here before this is NEVER going to happen ever. 3 have a stated strategy of having no 2G interests and of piggybacking on 2G networks. 3 already have a roaming agreement in place with o2 in Ireland.

Originally posted by crowbar

3uk is owned by a consortium with hutchison (who are based in hong kong), ntt docomo (a japanese telco) and kpn mobile (who are dutch)

KPN no longer have a stake.

Originally posted by crowbar
hutchinson have launched networks in oz, italy and uk so far, and have 3g licenses in loads of other countries ... that's some money they must have spent!

Yeah, billions and billions of wasted money.
They also have a live network in Sweden and Ireland (but no proper consumer product here yet)

JTMan · 07-12-2003 7:08pm

Originally posted by flogen
Now that 3G phones are making their way into the market (although slowly), what effect will they have on the regular phones that we all use at the moment?

Very little till 2006 probably. By the end of the decade it is likely to have had a major effect.

Originally posted by flogen

Will '2G' handsets drop in price to make way for the better technology?

Probably later this decade.

Originally posted by flogen

and, in time will the 2g networks be cut off as analoge tv will be in favor of digital in afew years (in the UK anyway)?

Yes. o2 have only 7 years of their 2G licence left here. By 2010 a lot of the 2G networks will probably have gone.

Originally posted by flogen

and if all this is bound to happen, how long will it take?

My bet is 6-8 years.

Originally posted by flogen

or will 3G flop just like picture phones did all those years ago,

Picture phones never flopped. They have been a huge success. There are huge shortages of some handsets at the moment.

flogen · 07-12-2003 9:42pm

my mistake, i always though picture phones did flop

anyway, from what ive seen of the phones, they are very bulky and crappy looking, an i doubt its worth a regular customer getting one for some time (when coverage improves, charges and handset prices drop and models improve).

Ive no interest in them at the mo, just wondering if ill see the benefits myself before i go and buy one in many years time

Flogen

OfflerCrocGod · 08-12-2003 12:12am

I think you mean WAP flopped.

jesus_thats_gre · 08-12-2003 3:23pm

To be honest, its gonna take a long time before 3G takes over from GSM. You will probably remember back to when Eircell had GSM running along side an analogue network (088 and 087). That went on for quite sometime before they made a concentrated effort to get everyone to make the switch, and it was only because they were being forced to shut down the analogue by the goverment that this happened...

The same will probably happen with 3G. One of the previous posts mentioned that GSM will be allowed to operate till the end of the decade sometime. It is only then that you will see people been given really good offers to switch. The same happed two or three years ago just before the close of the the analogues networks. There is at least 5 years or so till the close of GSM so it will be extrememly likely that most people will have bought a new handset during this time. Handset are now treated as essential buys by most people and are are being replaced more and more frequently, so it is going to impossible to avoid the switch to 3G as most new will be 3G enabled.

To be honest, it wont be Meteor pushing you towards this new handsets. It likely that Eircom, in whatever guise, Vodafone, Three and O2 are gonna be the ones trying to push you. Meteor's decision not to purchase a 3G license is a pretty good hint that it doesnt plan to be around in its current form in the furture and its looking extremely likely that Eircom are gonna gobble them up.

or will 3G flop just like picture phones did all those years ago, will they be seen as a pointless luxury?

Picture phones have not been a flop at all, there is currently shortages all over the country. As for 3G being a pointless luxary, if someone wants a mobile phone they will have no choice but to have a 3G mobile. Its gonna happen. Its impossible for it to be a flop and its impossible for it to experience the same growth as GSM did..

jesus_thats_gre · 08-12-2003 4:54pm

Originally posted by flogen

Will '2G' handsets drop in price to make way for the better technology? will call cost and text costs drop as people start to use video confrencing etc?

In theory, the price of texts in particular should drop. It is likely that SMS on 3G networks will be based on the Packet Switced domain of the network. This in itself should mean that the cost price of an sms should drop, thus reducing the price to the consumer.. Wont happen though

Hobart · 08-12-2003 5:08pm

Firstly,

Picture phones are not "3G" phones. Wheter they flop or not is immaterial. They are/were a "stop gap" measure for the networks once the SMS curve had began to even out, some net-ops refer to them as 2.5G. True MMS phones have yet to be realeased on the market, although there was a Nokia I seen about 2 months ago, which was 4 - 5 years old and had full(ish) MMS compatability.

There are 2 ways you can look at this.

1) Can tradional phones exist in a 3G market? Well the answer is most definitely yes. 2G phones will be able to recieve allerts it a 3G message is sent to them, via SMS, and that alert will take the form of a unique URL. The URL will/can be pasted into a browser and the message read/viewed.

2) Will the market support the use of 2G phones with the advent of 3G phones? Well in my opinion, again yes. Too much money has been invested and too much revenue is stiil and will be generated by 2G to let it slide. I am not saying that GSM/TDMA/CDMA et-al will survive for the next 100 years. But I think that 7 years is a bit short. Remember that these networks have been based on a network standard (SS7) that has been around for nearly 100 years. The technology is slow to change.

Originally posted by jesus_thats_gre
In theory, the price of texts in particular should drop. It is likely that SMS on 3G networks will be based on the Packet Switced domain of the network. This in itself should mean that the cost price of an sms should drop, thus reducing the price to the consumer.. Wont happen though

Lol at that. When I was involved in the suppply os SMSC's the payback for the customer was, on average, 6 weeks. i.e. 1 SMSC = US$750,000, profit after 6 Weeks Operation = US$750,000. They are leterally a licence to print money. If the price was going to drop, it would have dropped a long time ago!!

jesus_thats_gre · 08-12-2003 6:07pm

Originally posted by Hobart
Lol at that. When I was involved in the suppply os SMSC's the payback for the customer was, on average, 6 weeks. i.e. 1 SMSC = US$750,000, profit after 6 Weeks Operation = US$750,000. They are leterally a licence to print money. If the price was going to drop, it would have dropped a long time ago!!

Hence me saying:

Originally posted by jesus_thats_gre
Wont happen though

jesus_thats_gre · 08-12-2003 6:26pm

Originally posted by Hobart

2) Will the market support the use of 2G phones with the advent of 3G phones? Well in my opinion, again yes. Too much money has been invested and too much revenue is stiil and will be generated by 2G to let it slide. I am not saying that GSM/TDMA/CDMA et-al will survive for the next 100 years. But I think that 7 years is a bit short. Remember that these networks have been based on a network standard (SS7) that has been around for nearly 100 years. The technology is slow to change.

The fact is that current GSM handsets will not work on the UMTS/3G network. While the Circuit Switched domain of the UMTS Core Network is based pretty much completely on that of GSM, it is the radio network that has been totally redeveloped to use W-CDMA and operates of a totally different frequency band to GSM. So, present day GSM handset will not operate on a UMTS network.

I think what you mean is that there will be UMTS handsets that have the same feature set as a present day phones. This is perfectly correct as UMTS compatible handsets/UE (User Equipment) have been broken down into three main categories, one of which accomadates a "normal" candy bar shaped phone will small screens that are about now...

Back to my point. UMTS cannot be a flop. There is 3 million mobile users in this country. And if they want to keep using a moble phone after 2008, they will have to use a UMTS handset. Simple really. Too simple probably but what the hell :ninja:

Hobart · 08-12-2003 10:40pm

Originally posted by jesus_thats_gre
The fact is that current GSM handsets will not work on the UMTS/3G network. While the Circuit Switched domain of the UMTS Core Network is based pretty much completely on that of GSM, it is the radio network that has been totally redeveloped to use W-CDMA and operates of a totally different frequency band to GSM. So, present day GSM handset will not operate on a UMTS network.

I think what you mean is that there will be UMTS handsets that have the same feature set as a present day phones. This is perfectly correct as UMTS compatible handsets/UE (User Equipment) have been broken down into three main categories, one of which accomadates a "normal" candy bar shaped phone will small screens that are about now...

Back to my point. UMTS cannot be a flop. There is 3 million mobile users in this country. And if they want to keep using a moble phone after 2008, they will have to use a UMTS handset. Simple really. Too simple probably but what the hell :ninja:

I never disputed the fact that SMS pricing will go down. I was merely enhancing your point.

UMTS or GSM. It does not matter. For a start UMTS still has to be fully defined, even by the 3GPP and ETSI. However that does not fully cover 3G.

The fact is that the MO will have to integrate 2/2.5g phones into a 3G world. That is where the nightmare known as Handset Lookup and/or Provisioning will take place. i.e.

When a 3G message is sent to a phone a lookup will be performed on what handset the recipient pocesses. It that handset can recieve the message: Happy Days!! Message is dowmloaded to phone and/or User provisioned web space. If not. Link is sent to 2/2.5G/Incompatabile Handset via SMS and message is delivered. UMTS, is not the b all and end all. It is far from perfect.

jesus_thats_gre · 08-12-2003 11:29pm

Ah right, missed that one

BigMoose · 09-12-2003 10:39am

I dont quite understand what the issue of handset capability has to do with UMTS/3G v GSM... It's currently an issue where even MMS handsets have different capabilities and the MMSC has to determine if the recipient is capable of handling the message. If so, it's delivered, if not it gets delivered to their "multimedia library" (web) - at least that's in theory how it's meant to work. You have legacy handsets that cant do MMS at all, some that have smaller/bigger restrictions on size than others...

I dont see how the introduction of UMTS/3G makes that any better or worse... maybe I'm missing the point!

jesus_thats_gre · 09-12-2003 11:12am

Originally posted by BigMoose
I dont quite understand what the issue of handset capability has to do with UMTS/3G v GSM... It's currently an issue where even MMS handsets have different capabilities and the MMSC has to determine if the recipient is capable of handling the message. If so, it's delivered, if not it gets delivered to their "multimedia library" (web) - at least that's in theory how it's meant to work. You have legacy handsets that cant do MMS at all, some that have smaller/bigger restrictions on size than others...

I dont see how the introduction of UMTS/3G makes that any better or worse... maybe I'm missing the point!

I think I am missing the point as well. I was basically taking it from a technology perspective. The original poster asked what is going to happen to GSM and will 3G/UMTS be a success. So I was trying answer that. Trying

what will 3G do to the regular phones?

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