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Racing tips

  • 19-09-2003 3:39pm
    #1
    Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    We highly recommend you do NOT follow other peoples tips.

    Please remember that if someone tells you something, its because *they* want you to know it, not that you need to know it.

    All tips will be put here. Either you will put them here, or we will merge your "Tip" here and then PERMO-BAN YOU from this board.
    No exceptions.

    DeV.


«1345

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    Fairyhouse Wednesday 24th Sep
    Probable Going -Good to Firm

    2.30 Clover Hill Nursery Handicap (Rated 0-85)
    1 Amourallis - Eachway
    5 Antigone - Eachway
    11 Straille - Place

    3.00 Hayestown Maiden
    14 Silvertine - E

    3.30 Derrinstown Stud Apprentice Handicap (Rated 0-75)
    2 Grassland Star - P
    14 Soaring Eagle - W

    4.00 Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. (2yo) Auction Maiden
    8 Hasty Girl - W

    4.30 Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. (2yo) Fillies Maiden
    3 Edetana - P

    5.00 Mullinam Handicap (Rated 0-100)
    2 Brave Geronimo - W

    5.30 Dunboyne Maiden
    8 Rathuil - P
    10 Trusted Instinct - W

    6.00 Garristown Handicap (Rated 0-50)
    4 Peru Girl - W


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I dont know how well this tips section will work but i like the look of Newsplayer tomorrow at Plumpton. I think its the 3.15 race. He is a horse of whom a lot was thought of when he was younger - as a novice hurdler. However he never produced it really on the track. He now seems to be getting his act together over fences. He is a bold jumper - dangerous for a novice - but around this sharp 2m Plumpton Track he should have a lot of these horses in trouble early on. He can outjump the lot of these and have the stmina to win from Thalys. Its a pretty bboring weekend for me, but he would be my one strong bet. Anything over 5/2 would be value.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Newsplayer is a non runner. Racign post slow to update their declarations. Sorry. Another day.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,144 ✭✭✭Runfree


    Sorry for my inactivity guys. Will be here start of next week. I didn't have any race cards availabled but that should change from monday onwards. :)

    Any winnings I will take 5%.

    Cheers,

    RunFree

    I'll be back Monday 29th September


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    OK, tomorrows racing has thrown up a horse that I like running in a novice chase - one of the best betting mediums if you ask me.

    Prodigal son has run a couple of good races in defeat lately. He was second to Uncle Arthur at Roscommon, after making a bad error two out. He travelled particularly well throughout the race and lost the race two out. The winner went clear then but ended up hanging on by a neck at the end.

    Last time out at listowel, he was beaten by a decent sort in Samasakhan - a horse that finished behind him at Roscommon. there were about five or six of tomorrow's field behind him that day. The third - The real solara gets five pounds - finished 9l behind Prodigal Son that day, and is the biggest danger. He was unlucky when he fell at the last at Cork before that, but Prodigal Son has the best form in this race, jumps well, and could be worth an investment. 5/2 would be a nice price. If LEnnaught goes off a stupid price, unfashionable stable- 14/1 upwards - he could be worth watching. He ran a decent race at Listowel behind, Prodigal Son and teh REal solara, last time out on his debut.

    There you go!!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Yea I like that horse aswell. Although Minella Captain will probably start as Fav. I won't be backing either. My 10 e.w will be going on Fiddlers Bar in the same race.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Dont think that Minella captain or Fiddlers bar are in prodigal son's race. Prodigal son will probably start favorite.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Sorry. Your right. Only 12 declared at this stage (of 24 original entriesof which Fiddlers Bar and Minella Capt. where listed). Didn't look at the finished racecard. In that case I'm going with Arthur Daly to place at around 6/1.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Just a little note on the Thurles 5.00. I hope soem noticed that some bookies were over big on Lennaught. Ive taken 20s at Paddy power e.w. He is now 12s there, 14s in other bookies, and 16s with boyles. Definitely, not from teh weight of my money. Small stakes. BUt interesting, if he turns up, it wouldnt be a bad start, but my main bet is still prodigal son. 5/2 is the best ive seen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Apologies lads. Horse wasnt good enough. I could make excuses but I wont. Lennaght made a couple of bad mistakes that put him out of contention early on. One to check teh market for every now and again.

    The winner looked to have done it well, unfortunately, it transpired that he had broken down during the race. Brave effort. Hope he is able ot recover from the efforts.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    Hard luck lads. Better luck next time.

    I didn't get a chance yesterday to get in on this and tell you all you couldn't be more wrong with your tip (hindsight is great, isn't it) ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    Here are my tips for tomorrows meeting at Punchestown. They're not based upon any real knowledge, I just looked at the card, studies the form, riders and trainers, and made my picks.

    2.30 Stanley Racing Maiden Hurdle - Jimmyonecoat (E)
    3.00 Arthurstown Hurdle - Hehasalife (W)
    3.30 Panoramic Restaurant Mares Novice Hurdle - Statim (W)

    I'm avoiding the handicaps me btw - being more selective ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I hope they win for you but I was wondering if there was a chance that you could post some short thinking behind your selections. Why you selected them. It will help everyone reading the tips to be able to assimilate your thoughts into their own opionions on the race.

    I like Common Kris in the first. He travelled well for a long way behind Royal Alphabet and Statim last time out. He was unbelievably badly off at the conditions that day, and this is more his level. He is decent form, and in a poor race he has a chance.

    Before backing Statim, it is worth noting that this horse is the biggest pig in irish racing. She has thrown away more chances than any horse in training. Even when she won last time out, she threw in teh towel and was fortunate not to lose the race in teh stewards room. She has a lot of ability, but needs things to go right for her to win. I have my doubts about tomorrow to be honest.

    I wouldnt recommend not betting in handicaps, but definitly they take more studying.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    In the first http://www.irish-racing.com/v3card071200310041430.htm I picked Jimmyonecoat as he's had an OK form (672220 ) this year though not so good in the last race at Down Royal. And he might run better with a pro (Colm O'Dwyer) on his back?
    I wouldn't have looked at Common Kris based upon it form (0-90B53), though he has a rating of '93' whatever that means?
    What do you think about Buoni Island?

    In the second http://www.irish-racing.com/v3card071200310041500.htm I've gone for Hehasalife. Has a pretty good form (2218612) this year, though he may have a tough time against Kings Orchard and Angela's Way. I'm giving it to Hehasalife as he did well on the soft ground at Listowel.

    In the third, http://www.irish-racing.com/v3card071200310041530.htm I've gone for Statim as her form looks very impressive (2222021). Surely this girl will be too good for the rest?
    Didn't know about her reputation of being a "pig" - that's a new term for me.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    theres a reason why statim has all those seconds to her name. Click into the form section in the RP or on irish racing ans read the reports. You will get more information that way rather than teh actual finishing position.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    Punchestown:
    2.30: 7 Kelly's Craft (Ire) J R Barry 5-2, 2 Buoni Island (Ire) B J Geraghty 9-2, 12 Red Venus (Ire) J P Sullivan 14-1, 14 ran.
    3.00: 5 C'est Fantastique (Ire) D J Howard 8-1, 2 Kings Orchard (Ire) P Carberry 7-4 Fav, 3 Quest For A Star (Ire) B J Geraghty 15-8, 6 ran.
    3.30: 3 Statim Mr D W Cullen 6-4 Jt Fav, 2 Slaney Fox (Ire) A D Leigh 6-4 Jt Fav, 6 Nimvara (Ire) L A Hurley 6-1, 10 ran, non runners : Non Runner: Rosslare Express (IRE).

    Looks like this piggy came home in the 3:30.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    A horse is referred to as a pig when i doesnt try to win. As i said Statim has ability to win better races, way better races than the one she contested on Saturday. She finished second in a grade 2 last year. However once she hits the front she doesnt want to run on. I take it you didnt see the race on Saturday. She cruised to teh front 2 furlongs out - plain and simple he is quicker than the others in teh race - went about two lengths clear, and stopeed running. Slowed down to a trot to be exact. It was only when the second and third jioned her again with about 100 yrds to go that she decided grudingly to run on again. I can take it that you are relatively new to watching horse racing. Some of the signs that a horse is ungenuine ( a pig, or a dog sometimes) includes the horses head goes up in the air, the swish their tail when hit. Some horses are bridle horses, horses that look very good until they are put under pressure and they fold. If you were backing statim you can hope that she does everything so easily against inferior rivals that she doestn know she is in a race.

    The jockey did well to get Statim's head back up on the line. 6/4 was a decent price about it. If she showed half her ability she would have won easier but she is one horse to have severe reservations about when backing her. She is a pig, one of the worst that ive seen.

    Common Kris fell, the winner of the first, Kelly's craft looked very good when winning.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,120 ✭✭✭PH01


    Yip I'm new to racing alright but interested to learn more.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I hope someone remembered this post from about 2 weeks ago. The horse was a non-runner. He won a better race yesterday - even money - opened 2/1.

    I dont know how well this tips section will work but i like the look of Newsplayer tomorrow at Plumpton. I think its the 3.15 race. He is a horse of whom a lot was thought of when he was younger - as a novice hurdler. However he never produced it really on the track. He now seems to be getting his act together over fences. He is a bold jumper - dangerous for a novice - but around this sharp 2m Plumpton Track he should have a lot of these horses in trouble early on. He can outjump the lot of these and have the stmina to win from Thalys. Its a pretty bboring weekend for me, but he would be my one strong bet. Anything over 5/2 would be value.


    If there has been one horse that has impressed me over the summer jumping season, it has been Rigmarole. I think he has a great chance of winning three in a row today at Wetherby. He travels so well throughout his races, and with three confirmed front runners he will have the race set up for him. delighted to see that the racing post are napping first ballot, i will go against him on 2m on firm ground. he is a hard horse to win with in any case. Paul Nicholls, Rigmarole's trainer, is thinking of taking on Rooster Booster saturday week at Kempton. I think he is still ahead of teh handicapper and can win this. I think this is a good good horse.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    For my money today I'm, goin to stick a few bob e/w on A Horse running at Lingfield at 14:45. Going proably a bit good for him today to win but had a good couple of runs in the last 2 months, albeit against not that strong an opp. Should get 8's or maybe 10's on this nag called Mallard>


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    Fantastic stuff Hobart.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,083 ✭✭✭carbsy


    Aye , pity u didn't include him in the comp. ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I'd prefer the real money myself.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Cheers' Morgans. I got it late at 8's. At one stage it was 20/1 with Paddypower, obviously a lot of interest was taken as it finished at 13/2. Did'nt think it would go all the way but the turf must have suited.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    For my few YoYo's today I am going to stick a 20e/w on Treculiar running at newmarket at 14:15. Currently on PP's at 11's.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,319 ✭✭✭sci0x


    Any tips for whose goin to win in the nexts weeks races?

    Wednesday 31st Dec - Punchestown
    Thursday 1st Jan - Fairyhouse
    Friday 2nd Jan - Ayr (UK)
    Saturday 3rd Jan - Cork
    Sunday 4th Jan - Naas.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    In Punchestown if you are going for a win I would not bet against Heads On the Ground in the 2.45. Good e/w in the same race would be Commonchero.

    In Fairyhouse Jirlan will be short odds for the win in the 2.45. I fancy Take your mark, in the same race, as a good outside bet. For a good e/w try Peacock Lady, should get about 16's or 20's, in the 1.15.


    I have'nt got the race cards for the next 3. I will have a look tomorrow and see if there is anything.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,309 ✭✭✭✭Bard


    I've been asked to place a bet for a friend today. In a €50 treble, he's plumping for:

    Cape Canaveral in the 1:10 at Fontwell
    Perouse in the 1:25 ah Cheltenham
    and Santenay in the 2:00 at Cheltenham

    This guy generally knows his stuff regarding horses, - me, I wouldn't have a clue ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Well Commonchero won in Punchestown, so I hope you took my advice. Not a bad return in Fairyhouse either with Jirlan coming in 2nd at evens.

    For Ayr today I will be doing a double on The Rile in the 2.00 and Full Irish in the 3.00. A good e/w bet has to be Mr Hornblower in the 3.00 at around 6's.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,319 ✭✭✭sci0x


    Ok cool, tell me how you get on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Ayr was called off today.


    For Cork tomorrow put a few bob e/w on Take Five running at 12.45. You should get 6's or 7's. If your feeling adventerous double up on Rampart in the 2.15. Price should be similiar.

    I hate Naas. Don't know why. I just do. For a punt I'm putting €20 on Hi Cloy in the 1.15. Yeoman's Point should start as odds on fav. For an e/w I am going for Honeybunch in the 2.45. Should get 6's or 8's on that one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Well Cork drew a blank....:( Made it up in Naas though with Honeybunch coming in a 6's in the 2.45. So all in all not a bad result with the tips working out at even's or a slight profit, depending on the way you bet..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    For a tip today I am going with the following:

    1:20 HANDICAP 0-60 1m 2f LINGFIELD He Who Dares e/w bet

    2:15 NOVICE CHASE 2m PUNCHESTOWN Kicking King, Junior Fontaine f/cast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    well done with honeybunch. Of course i spotted it the day after teh race.

    Just to get the forum moving again, have you had any ante post chelt bets.

    Ive done

    sporazene at 20s for the champion hurlde
    baracouda at 2/1 for the stayers
    moscow flyer at 11/4 for teh QM
    Rooster Booster at 6/1 - way back before teh season began, nearly that price now

    I'd done a treble on Strong FLow for the SA, MF, and Baracouda- sunk

    treble on MF, Baracouda, and Best Mate. not at the good prices listed above but i think they are bombproof.

    Hope someone noticed that one tip i put up here was rigmarole - a race he lost to Gimmick - but hasnt left teh side down since. Of course, I didnt back him at 33s or 25s.

    Good christmas let down by Rhinestone.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Had you anything on Best Mate over the Christmas? I had him in the chase.

    I also got him a 2-1 for the GC.
    I have Rhinestone Cowboy backed at 6's for the CH.
    I actually fancy Azertyioup for the QMC.
    I won last year on barracouda (if memory serves me right). and I will be backing again.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    You were let down in the first race there Bard. And had a 2nd and 1st in the next 2. A treb is always a hard one to pull off. But when it happens!!! Whoo HA!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    the only bet i had in teh race was Le coudray without the two favs with PP. &/2 wasnt bad, but gave it back to the bookies before teh new year.

    BM was superb, adn his price on the week before the race 13/8 was huge. I was wary of BOS, and i dont think he gave his running. At his best he wouldnt have lived with BM up the straight. Might have ended up on the floor trying to mathc him over the last. Wouldnt write off BOS yet though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Yea.. I don't know. ME and BOS have not had the best of realationships. I backed him last year at chelt (as did half of Ireland) and you know what happened. I just can't see him living with BM, or anybody in current form.

    However when I shun BOS he normally fcks me up. He's curr 12's for the GC. Might be worth a fairly hefty e/w?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I backed best mate last year. Paddy power had a special on the day - money back on teh second if Beef or Salmon wins - still think it was the most intellegent bet ive ever made. I couldnt see anything else gettting into the race. Topped off a good week. I would like to see BOS run in teh pillar chase, he could go off a big price there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Originally posted by Hobart
    1:20 HANDICAP 0-60 1m 2f LINGFIELD He Who Dares e/w bet
    That one came in for ye. How much did you get.

    BTW- Is there a way of calculating the odds on a forecast?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    no, there isnt. Its computer generated and the methods of reaching the odds are controversial and incomprehensible. FOrecasts in ireland are bigger than those in England, ive noticed, for no good reason.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Originally posted by eirebhoy
    That one came in for ye. How much did you get.

    BTW- Is there a way of calculating the odds on a forecast?
    1/4 odds payed at 15/2. I actually watched the race and he made a great last furlong. Would have won but ran out of track.

    The f/cast failed. While Kicking King won (as was always going to be the case) Houdunnit finished second.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    was junior fontaine anywhere near second.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Didn't actually see that race. I was having a sambo at the time (I do have to eat you know ;) ). Will check it up and get back to you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,319 ✭✭✭sci0x


    Tips for this weeks?

    Thursday 8th Jan - Southwell (UK)
    Friday 9th Jan - Ludlow (UK)
    Saturday 10th Jan - Navan
    Sunday 11th Jan - Leopardstown


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 272 ✭✭irish life


    Originally posted by Morgans
    was junior fontaine anywhere near second.
    3rd.:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Thursdays Tips:

    SOUTHWELL 1:50 CLAIMING STAKE 1m 4f...............Polish Baron
    Win

    SOUTHWELL 2:50 MAIDEN AUCTION ST 1m.........................Lilian
    definite place. I backing it to win. Should get 6's or 7's.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Wincanton 4:00 Gene Genie 9/1!!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,013 ✭✭✭✭eirebhoy


    Originally posted by eirebhoy
    Wincanton 4:00 Gene Genie 9/1!!!
    Would you believe I gave you this tip, I never put it on and it won at 15/2. I bet nobody else did it either.:)

    Tomorrows tip:
    VENEGUERA - 3.00pm at ludlow!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    well done Eirebhoy, great result.


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