what are the chances

krattapopov

was playing poker last night in a friends house (DangerMan's), and i was doing alright, there was six of us, down to 4. got my hand and i had q,q. so the guy beside me bets fairly big and i was all... brilliant, then Davey Devil calls his bet. me being the smart ass went all in, trying to rob their chips.

alas it was not meant to be, they both called me.... i thew down my q,q in delight but to my horror the player to my right threw down k,k..... and then to our horror Davey Devil threw down A, A!!!!! the flop came and the devil hit an ace... thus knocking us both out of the game

what are the odds at us getting those cards all in the pocket like that?!!!

i heard that it is 20/1 to get a pair. so in my calculation would it be 20 by 20 by 20?

equalling 8000/1?

i was so annoyed

DeVore

Are you asking what are the odds of getting *exactly* those cards? or just 3 pairs and one hitting a third on the flop.

You also have to include if you are asking about the suit of the pairs (which I presume you are not which makes it slightly more likely).

Its still pretty unfortunate

DeV.

Hyzepher

The thing to learn here is that QQ is not such a great hand when raised against. There are two over cards that can beat you (A,K) and the chances of catching a set (trips) is much less than a A or K catching a pair.

Hyzepher

Dr. Dodger

oh really, thanks for tellin us that but i think you'll find that QQ cannot be beaten by anybody.

on a serious note, QQ is not a bad hand to go in with, it all depends on whats on the table i suppose, especially in a heads up situation.

All-In

Hyzepher

Originally posted by Dr. Dodger
oh really, thanks for tellin us that but i think you'll find that QQ cannot be beaten by anybody.

Not really sure what you are saying here - my point was that QQ is not a great hand when raised against. Of course it's a good hand - high pair and all that but if you raise and get re-raised you are in trouble.

Hyzepher

Lafortezza

playing in henbanes house on saturday evening,
I got 7 and 2 offsuit in my hand, so I folded. turn and river card were a 7 and a 2, would have won the pot had a stayed in.
fair enough I had no way of knowing etc etc

Next hand, 6 and 3 off suit in my hand, fold again, my stack wasn't that big and I wasn't a blind.
3rd card on the flop and river card would have given me pairs of 6s and 3s, and again I would have won the pot.
Fair enough, I wasn't to know.

Next hand, I have 7 and 2 off suit again. I think "will I go in seeing as the flop is throwing up all kinds of weirdness", but knowing 72o is a terrible hand I fold again.
The turn and the river produce a 7 and a 2, one more time I would have won the pot.

Oh how we laughed...:dunno:

Hyzepher

It is true that any 2 cards can come up trumps as often as any other 2 cards - the problem is that 2 7 is a limited hand. What are you hoping will come up - the only real hand is to get another 2 7 or a set. The odds are against you on this and if you continue to play bad hands you will lose out - of course you will win your share of pots but you will lose overall, and since poker is all about winning money not pots, that is a bad thing

Hyzepher

DeVore

Yes, what Hyzepher points out is true. A better way maybe of explaining it is that with 2,7o you are not only looking for YOUR cards to come up but since almost anything else half decent will beat you, you are also playing for your opponents hands to NOT come up.

If someone has a pair better then 7s you are looking for both a 7 and a 2 to come up and for their card to ALSO NOT show up.

Now if your opponents match nothing, its not likely they are going to put many chips in the pot for you to win so EVEN IF you do match the board AND your opponents dont (which is the best outcome you can hope for)... you will win jack all...


Now consider if you have AK or KQ. You are just hoping for something to come up for yourself. You really dont care too much if someone pairs their jack, ten or worse with the board, in fact you might want that as then they might be tempted to think it will stand up and you take them for a sucker.
Even better, if you match both you are a sure fire winner in most games, watching always for those nasty flushes and straights of course.... (or indeed some bad cnnt sitting to your left with a house that he has slow played and then goes on to clean you out, but I'm not bitter Hyzepher!!!)
If you match both and your opponent does his worst he's probably walking into it with his eyes closed. So you can see in the various scenarios the 2,7o really has little hope at all even if you do win with it!

I've said before I'll play 2,7 suited just to see if the flop bring me a flush draw otherwise it gets tossed back.

DeV.

krattapopov

was i right that the chances of those hands coming up to be 8000-1? or is it more or less?