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Really Bad Run

  • 12-01-2004 10:24pm
    #1
    Davey Devil
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,221 ✭✭✭


    I've gone about 30 races since my last victory, all 2/3 euro bets usually on one of the top three horses, is this unusually bad?? Should I consider never betting again and just stick to the poker??


Comments

  • #2
    Hobart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,839 ✭✭✭Hobart


    Originally posted by Davey Devil
    I've gone about 30 races since my last victory, all 2/3 euro bets usually on one of the top three horses, is this unusually bad?? Should I consider never betting again and just stick to the poker??
    I wouldn't worry about it. Around this time of the year the form can go out the window. Courses are unpreditable and the Horses, just like Humans, don't like the weather and get colds.

    Having said that there still is no such thing as a sure thing. Normally a good run is a good run. You probably know the feeling when you feel as if you can't go wrong. I'm having an ok(ish) month myself. Have backed a few "mares" and only for best mate over the christmas, I would be down overall. A couple of things to remember:

    1) Never chase your losses.
    and
    2) If the punter always won, there would be no bookies.

    Good luck anyhow.


  • #3
    williamgrogan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 605 ✭✭✭williamgrogan


    There is a maths thing called "bunching".

    If the chances of something are say 1 in 5 then the MOST unlikely event is that it will crop up every 5 times. Much more likely is that it will crop up twice in one 5, 3 times in another, then zero in the next 10 and once in the next 5 and say zero in the last 5.

    Therefore this translates into streaks of "good luck" and "bad luck".

    Slot machines exhibit this when say a 1/10 chance means that no payout might occur for 30 spins. Punters normally translate this into "the machine is gone cold" or " this machine is rigged". As far as I know slot machines are not that clever.

    It does mean that while you can have a bad run that’s its also a certainty that you will have good runs.

    As far as I know there is no way around this. It’s not predicable.

    Another thought. When betting, particularly on the tote always remember that you are betting against all the other punters and the way they are thinking is very important, MORE important IMO than the form.

    I’ll elaborate on this if anyone is interested.


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