130, 000 jobs to move overseas ?

gurramok

In the newspaper(ireland on sunday) today, there was an article quoting experts as saying that following Phillips move of services jobs to Poland that in the next few years 130,000 more will follow to EU acession states. They say the economic conditions now are plainly too expensive and anti-competitive for companies to remain/locate here.

As my job might be one of them, is this presumption based on scaremongering or the scary reality ?

Is this an after-affect of passing the Nice Treaty ?

Ping Chow Chi

its probably not an effect of nice, its an effect of cheap labour. Lots of out-sourcing jobs are going to non-european countries.

and yes it sucks - the IT company I work for just brought an IT out-sourcing company in India and plan on using that for most it software development now

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
In the newspaper(ireland on sunday) today, there was an article quoting experts as saying that following Phillips move of services jobs to Poland that in the next few years 130,000 more will follow to EU acession states. They say the economic conditions now are plainly too expensive and anti-competitive for companies to remain/locate here. As my job might be one of them, is this presumption based on scaremongering or the scary reality ?

It is a reality, however the ecomony is still creating jobs, it's simply that lower skill / lower wage jobs will go elsewhere. It is a challenge to be met, not Doomsday.

Originally posted by gurramok
Is this an after-affect of passing the Nice Treaty ?

Not quite (previous treqaties already allowed for up to 27 countries), in fact the opposite could be said as the next (25+?) batch of coutries would be cheaper again.

Hobbes

Only two things annoying about India..

1st - You can't compete with them. I mean I would have no problem working for the comparitive wages providing the cost of living is the same. Indians are on par with pretty much every other tech country.

2nd - From what I gather you won't have an easy time getting a Tech job in india. So it's not like you can emigrate.

At least if Poland joins the EU you can move there and then compete.

swiss

This is a practical inevitablility. The way I see it, the development of any nation into an economic power means that a significant investment in terms of monetary resources as well as skilled personnel has to be made first. I'm sure that when Ireland was struggling from abject poverty of the beginning of the last century, many countries would not have wanted Ireland to become an economic power to the detriment of their own economies. However, with the amount of inward investment that we attracted, somebody had to lose out - and those were typically other European countries that vyed for the same investment opportunities that we received.

Now, other countries are in a stronger position to attract inward investment than Ireland, namely because of their lower cost base and access to European markets. However, now that we are the potential losers, this is suddenly a bad thing? As long as it doesn't happen to us, it's okay, but as soon as it does, then globalisation/nice/EU policies/<insert causal factor> are responsible? I know the prospect of losing a job is scary, and frankly since I'll be going into a computing field (I haven't decided which one yet) when I leave college, I will have to face the prospect of increased competition as well.

Originally posted by Victor:

It is a challenge to be met, not Doomsday.

Absolutely. We shouldn't forget also that with investment, Poland should quickly reach EU standards of living. This will create another important export market for Ireland in the near future.

bonkey

Originally posted by gurramok
As my job might be one of them, is this presumption based on scaremongering or the scary reality ?

Probably a bit of both.

There is much to attract business into these countries, and also good reasons to stay with existing solutions that are working well.

Is this an after-affect of passing the Nice Treaty ?

Nope. Its an after-effect of the same things which brought all of this investment into Ireland in the first place.

They came because we offered a good package. Location, costs, incentives, work-force....we had it all.

Now, someone else is offering a better package. Thats the way business goes.

We have no right to these jobs. We attracted them here over other countries who vied for them, and we won because we offered the best deal.

If we no longer offer the best deal......

jc



jc

gurramok

It is a reality, however the ecomony is still creating jobs, it's simply that lower skill / lower wage jobs will go elsewhere. It is a challenge to be met, not Doomsday

The jobs i'm talking about are the high skill/high wage ones that now exist in the IT industry for example.
It is certainly a doomsday scenario. If you include the spin-off jobs, it would be nearly 10% of the workforce wiped out along with the tax on corporation profits. The economy would go downhill as govt would not be able to balance the books for day-to-day expenditure.

I know the prospect of losing a job is scary, and frankly since I'll be going into a computing field (I haven't decided which one yet) when I leave college, I will have to face the prospect of increased competition as well.

Don't do computing, thats the message.
I.T. industry is a bad career unless you want to work in eastern europe/india for fraction of the wages.

If we no longer offer the best deal......

Globalisation is bad, thats the message i'm getting when thousands of jobs in uk have already been transferred to India.

Jobs that service the EU area should stay in the EU area and jobs should be created in the new accession states for servicing the accession states.

Where is the protection to prevent jobs been transferred ?
Lots of protection is given to farmers in the form of subsidies to protect their income levels from a farmer outside the EU who would work for the fraction of an Irish farmers wage.

It is corporate greed for maximum profits, a campaign should be setup in the EU area like there is one in USA to campaign against the exporting of jobs to ridiculously low wage areas of the world. If not, there should be govt help to train people who lost their jobs to find alternative employment.

At what point does the jobs transfer stop, how many professions will it affect ?
Would i be entitled to get a solicitior/lawyer services in Poland at a fraction of the price here ? (I bet lawyers wont like that!)
Same can be said for medical treatment or any other service related profession bar the supermarket

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
If not, there should be govt help to train people who lost their jobs to find alternative employment.

www.fas.ie

Originally posted by gurramok
Would i be entitled to get a solicitior/lawyer services in Poland at a fraction of the price here ?

You could, but would he be up to speed on Irish / EU law? There will always be some structural inability to oursource **all** jobs to another country (unless the post man carries a passport on his rounds)

BuffyBot

Globalisation is bad, thats the message i'm getting when thousands of jobs in uk have already been transferred to India.

On a side note a bit of a backlash is already beginning to occur. Nationwide in the UK had decided not to follow the lead of other banks by taking up the outsourcing ioption, and I'm sure others will follow soon enough.

bonkey

Originally posted by gurramok
Globalisation is bad, thats the message i'm getting when thousands of jobs in uk have already been transferred to India.

But it was good when those jobs transferred into Ireland, no?

Or would you rather we never had them in the first place?

Where is the protection to prevent jobs been transferred

None, but I doubt you were complaining when the jobs came into this country from somewhere else.

It is corporate greed for maximum profits,

Yup...and thats exactly what created the Celtic Tiger. Are you saying you'd prefer we never had that?

jc

sceptre

Originally posted by gurramok
Jobs that service the EU area should stay in the EU area and jobs should be created in the new accession states for servicing the accession states.

Not much point in allowing them to join the EU if that's the case.

Where is the protection to prevent jobs been transferred ?

To eastern European EU members? None. We knew about this before the Nice Treaty vote (both of them). The Amsterdam Treaty had as its basis the idea of freedom of mobility of workers. Implicit in that is the ability of companies to trade from one member state into another once particular regulations in particular industries are satisfied. We signed that one too. They didn't call it a single European market for nothing - it cuts both ways (or after this summer, 25 ways). Maastricht cemented that as soon as the European Communities became the European Union. We can compete on ability or on price. Or both. If they're cheaper (and except for the Czechs they will be for a while), we're going to have to attempt to compete on quality. A scary new concept for our politicians I know but they can always work on bribes^H^H^H^H^H^Hdevelopment grants.

Would i be entitled to get a solicitior/lawyer services in Poland at a fraction of the price here ? (I bet lawyers wont like that!)

If you could find one with a knowledge of Irish law you could make that case. Obviously there are loopholes to jump through (realistically a Pole is far less likely to be qualified as an irish barrister or solicitor due to the cheap labour the Law Society members currently enjoy for those training years) but even leaving those aside it's not quite the same thing as having an IT qualification. Nevertheless...

Same can be said for medical treatment or any other service related profession bar the supermarket

Cheap Polish tooth fillings? Inexpensive Maltese heart transplants? Lo-price Czech abortions? They're all services you're fully entitled under the Maastricht Treaty to avail of. Get them before their cost of living improves and prices go up:)

mike65

Many ppl forget that Ireland has/had been doing the same to UK, German and US jobs for years....as bonkey noted. In fact its the reason I live here not in England.

Mike.

gurramok

None, but I doubt you were complaining when the jobs came into this country from somewhere else.

Not all of the 'new' jobs created here were 'stolen' from other countries, they were brand new startups.

Not much point in allowing them to join the EU if that's the case.

Eastern Europe is a huge new market which need services which could be done by even western companies employing locals to service their area, not the transfer of jobs to service the whole EU on the cheap.

To eastern European EU members? None. We knew about this before the Nice Treaty vote (both of them).

I suspected that this might happen before the Nice treaty (both) and hence voted no. I guess my suspicions were right. :mad:

Many ppl forget that Ireland has/had been doing the same to UK, German and US jobs for years....as bonkey noted

Problem is that the countries you mention have huge homegrown industries and wealth to withstand any job losses that come and they rebound. Ireland is the opposite, it is too heavily dependent of foreign companies providing employment with hardly any alternative if things go wrong.

We need to discover some oil of the Mayo coast fast

bonkey

Originally posted by gurramok
Not all of the 'new' jobs created here were 'stolen' from other countries, they were brand new startups.

Most of which were taking advantage of the free market mechanism which is what underlies all of this.

Had we not moved away from the protectionism you were suggesting might be needed once again, the vast majority of those jobs would never have existed.

Eastern Europe is a huge new market which need services which could be done by even western companies employing locals to service their area, not the transfer of jobs to service the whole EU on the cheap.

Yes, it could....and generally will. But if you run an American company, why should you pay X per unit to have your EMEA operation based in Ireland, when you could pay X/2 by basing it in (say) Poland or somewhere else.

Again - thats why they came to Ireland in the first place, and thats why they will leave when we are no longer the most attractive option.

I suspected that this might happen before the Nice treaty (both) and hence voted no. I guess my suspicions were right. :mad:

No, they weren't. No more than my suspicions would be right in saying that I think people having breakfast would lose us those jobs, and I oppose it...but enough people still eat breakfst in Ireland that we'll lose the jobs.

We will lose jobs to Eastern European nations as part fo them joining the EU, yes. But without Nice, there was space for 5 more nations, and the same would have happened anyway. Indeed, even without those 5 nations, it was more a question of when they would get the right combination of factors, so all EU membership has done is brought forward the date of this happening slightly.

Or do you think that the hordes of Software Development going to India is also because of the Nice treaty?

Ireland is the opposite, it is too heavily dependent of foreign companies providing employment with hardly any alternative if things go wrong.

And how did we become dependent on these foreign companies, if not by enticing them here in the first place??? Just as I've been saying?

What happened to all of these startups you were using as a counter-example at the start of this post?

You're now basically saying that we're in the sh1ts because we attracted all this foreign investment, and now its not right that someone else should get to do it instead of us.

jc

gurramok

Yes, it could....and generally will. But if you run an American company, why should you pay X per unit to have your EMEA operation based in Ireland, when you could pay X/2 by basing it in (say) Poland or somewhere else

Its the fraction what counts.
The cost in Poland would be x/10 not x/2, its not a level playing field.
Their standard and cost of living should be encouraged to near the EU level before any consideration of joining.

Indeed, even without those 5 nations, it was more a question of when they would get the right combination of factors, so all EU membership has done is brought forward the date of this happening slightly.

The date has been forwarded way too soon, as above their economies should be in better shape to join the EU.

Or do you think that the hordes of Software Development going to India is also because of the Nice treaty?

Specifically India, its globalisation. Indian jobs servicing India should be the norm, not Indian jobs servicing EU. Indian software developers is a slightly different scenario(not servicing the EU, they compete on salaries and quality servicing for global company in a global market) than the Indian call centres which service the EU than the Far East market.

You're now basically saying that we're in the sh1ts because we attracted all this foreign investment, and now its not right that someone else should get to do it instead of us.

Jobs that were enticed to this country did not cost 1/10 of those if they were located in the UK for example. We were slightly cheaper on the wages front, not 90% cheaper like Poland etc is today.
The playing field is way too disproportionate. If all 'these' jobs were transferred, Ireland is hugely vulnerable compared to any other country in the EU, other countries have huge homegrown industries to fall back on to provide alternative employment.
What homegrown industry do we have to fall back on other than the emigration boat ??

Lemming

Originally posted by gurramok

The playing field is way too disproportionate. If all 'these' jobs were transferred, Ireland is hugely vulnerable compared to any other country in the EU, other countries have huge homegrown industries to fall back on to provide alternative employment.
What homegrown industry do we have to fall back on other than the emigration boat ??

As sad as it is that so many jobs are being or are going to be lost, I think this is one of the best things to happen to this country in recent years. This is the wake-up call. The proverbial heart-attack-when-only-45-years-old. This country has become farrrrr too complacent and "Fat". Time to shape up and rejoin the rest of the world in reality!

bonkey

Originally posted by gurramok
Their standard and cost of living should be encouraged to near the EU level before any consideration of joining.

Why? Do you see the EU as some elite club for the rich or something?

Are you forgetting how comparatively poor we were as a nation when we were allowed to join the EEC to soak up the riches of better off nations?

The date has been forwarded way too soon, as above their economies should be in better shape to join the EU.

The whole point of bringing them into the EU is to get their economies in better shape. Indeed, the sooner this happens, the sooner they will be incapable of maintaining such a competitive advantage.

Specifically India, its globalisation. Indian jobs servicing India should be the norm, not Indian jobs servicing EU.

Why not? You have no problems with hundreds of thousands Irish jobs servicing Europe, the Middle East and Africa....but when the shoe's on the other foot, you want them competition to keep out.

You're still applying double standards. Its ok for us to have received the benefits when we were poor, but now that we're no longer at the bottom of the pile, the rules should be changed to protect us, and screw the poorer people.

Indian software developers is a slightly different scenario(not servicing the EU, they compete on salaries and quality servicing for global company in a global market) than the Indian call centres which service the EU than the Far East market.

No, they're not different at all. If you can offer the quality required, then the location is immaterial.

Or - once again - do you think that either one of the international call centres or international software development based in Ireland don't belong here? That would seem to be what you're implying....if they have no 'right' to take these things off us, then we had no 'right' to have them in the first place.

We were slightly cheaper on the wages front, not 90% cheaper like Poland etc is today.

We were far more than slightly cheaper, and we also had a government which was offering incentives like 20-year tax breaks, government funding in getting the new location built, up and running, etc. etc. etc.

We played on as unlevel a playing field as there was to be had at the time, and we took it for everything we could.

Strangely enough, your complaints about this not continuing strikes a resonant chord with the complaints which proliferated when companies left Ireland at the end of their tax-grace periods.

You, just like those who complained then, seem to think that we have some right to these jobs - that we have a right to be richer then we were, and that no-one poorer than us has a right to become richer at our expense.

The playing field is way too disproportionate.

And how do you want to rectify that? By splitting it up into two playing fields?

"This is for the rich like us, with all the nice jobs....and this is for the scummy poor like you, with all the crap-paying jobs.

"So you go ahead and have your crappy poor-person job, which will ensure you remain poor, while I take the better-paying jobs which I'm entitled to because I'm richer than you and need the money more.

Thats the stark reality of what you are suggesting is a better solution - keep the poor poor in order to keep the rich rich.

If all 'these' jobs were transferred, Ireland is hugely vulnerable compared to any other country in the EU, other countries have huge homegrown industries to fall back on to provide alternative employment.

Really? Name a single country in the EU which has enough "alternative employment" to effortlessly handle the loss of 5% of its workforce. Any single one will do - as long as you can point out what the "alternative employment" they have sitting idly by, unfulfilled, just waiting to soak up the unemployment which would ensue from losing homegrown or foreign investment.

I can pretty much guarantee you won't be able to name a single one. If you could, then it would beg the question as to why the Poles wouldn't simply move to these countries and take up those jobs which are going abegging as soon as they were allowed into the EU? They would receive better money (going by your figures...better by a factor of 10) and the work is obviously there according to you. Thus, the only Poles who would be willing to work for peanuts would be those who didn't want larger salaries.....

But thats not the reality. No EU nation has jobs going abegging, and no EU nation can easily afford to lose a large chunk of its jobs to a more competetive nation. But somehow because we have left ourselves at the bottom of the pile, you feel that we deserve special treatment.

Back to the good ol "Ireland and the Begging Bowl" then, is it? Poor old Eire....we need your money. Never mind that we are forecast to have the fastest-growing EU economy in 2004....we need....no...we deserve special treatment because all those other nations have jobs going spare, and yet are forcing us to give our jobs to the Poles.

Sorry gurramok...but the more you're being pressed on this, the less solid your argument appears to be. You haven't offered a single reason why we deserve to keep what we obtained inthe exact same way that the Poles will now come looking for it. It was right and proper for us to do it, but they're just scum for trying the same.

Refuse to give them jobs until they're rich enough to be uncompetetive....that has to be the best solution I've heard in a long time.

jc

mike65

Originally posted by bonkey


Refuse to give them jobs until they're rich enough to be uncompetetive....that has to be the best solution I've heard in a long time.

jc

The best way to make the new members uncompetitive is too get them in ASAP then we can strangle thier wit and cunning with red tape. In 20 years if its worked properly Poland et al will be as rich as we are now. Then they will be freting as various "Stans" or North African states look west...;)

Mike.

shotamoose

As has been pointed out, we can't expect to feel only the benefits of globalisation and none of the pain. If anything, the Poles and so forth need these jobs more than we do - and if it's no fun being unemployed in Ireland, it's still probably better than being unemployed in Poland.

Fine, maybe you don't care about the unemployed in Poland. So why should they - or anyone - care so much about the unemployed in Ireland that they'll allow us to bend the rules when they start to hurt?

With globalisation, insecurity goes hand in hand with opportunity. Ireland did pretty well out of the opportunity; we're about to see how well we cope with the insecurity. I think we're going to find out that the trick is to get as much benefit out of foreign investment as long as it's here, the better to ride out the storm when it's not. Of course, the more tax breaks you throw at companies to entice them, the less benefit you get from them while they're around.

cyclopath2001

When the government fails to get many of its IT staff to relocate, will they fill the skills gap with contract companies employing staff in off-shore locations?

Victor

Originally posted by gurramok
The cost in Poland would be x/10 not x/2, its not a level playing field.

A Polish friend indicates most everyday things (groceries, etc.) in Poland cost about 25% of what they do here, some luxury imported (computers, CDs) stuff will cost about 50%. I suspect wages in internationally traded services would be between 50-90% (but manuafacturing and others would be in the 25% bracket). Wages aren't just about what it costs someone to live, but also what people are willing to pay and what others are willing to be paid.

bonkey

Those figures won't do at all Victor. That would mean the disparity between Poland and here would only be...ooooh....not so far removed from the difference between Ireland and the US when we started, ummmm, stealing the masses of IT jobs that they had created.

Damn those thievin', cheap-labour Irish with their willing workforce and high level of education anyway.

Oh...hang on....its the Poles I'm meant to be saying that about now. Because thats different. Now its not us who's benefiting.

jc

tinofapples

Most Multinational's who set up operations here did so because of the relatively low wages (Which have gradually increased as well as costs) and the generous Tax breaks they are given here.

I know my company got breaks for 10 years here which is up shortly (2/3 Months).

It's only natural that if they can do something cheaper elsewhere they are gonna do it. Just like any of us going somewhere for cheaper petrol or banana's or whatever you want !!