possible aurora warning

albertw

swiped from brians post to www.irishastrononomy.org/boards

Up to date info can also be found at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/auroralobserving

Clear skies!

Brian

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COMPLEX SERIES OF SOLAR EVENTS MAY PRODUCE AURORAL DISPLAYS

A complex series of solar events on 19 and 20 January has
resulted in a well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection
(CME). The events involved filament eruptions as well as a major solar
flare (a fairly minimal major x-ray class M6.1 flare) in sunspot
complex 10540 on 20 January.

Confidence is high that this coronal mass ejection will impact
the Earth. Low and moderately energetic protons at greater than 5 MeV
have already increased in response to the effects of the associated
leading shock front from the CME. Impact is expected to occur during
the early portion of the UTC day of 22 January (evening/night hours
over North America).

A middle latitude aurora watch has been issued for 22 and 23
January. If the disturbance arrives as predicted, North America should
be best positioned to observe much of the activity. The watch
statement has been appended below.

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH ISSUED: 09:30 UTC, 21 JANUARY 2004

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VALID BEGINNING AT: 21:00 UTC (4 pm EST) ON 21 JANUARY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED IMPACT TIME OF DISTURBANCE: 03:00 UTC ON 22 JAN, +/- SEVERAL
HOURS

HIGH RISK PERIOD: LATE 21 - 22 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 22 - 23 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 35, 20, 15 (21 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO
GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...

SOUTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

IRELAND TO ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL
RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

SOUTHERN NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

A well-defined Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection is
enroute to the Earth. Impact of this disturbance is expected to occur
during the early UTC hours of 22 January (our target time is estimated
near 03:00 UTC, give or take several hours). NOTE that this correponds
(for North American observers) to the evening hours of 21 January
(Wednesday night). Auroral activity could intensify to moderately
strong levels following the arrival of the disturbance and may provide
sporadic opportunities to observe auroral activity over fairly
wide-spread middle latitude regions. The near-new phase of the moon
will help ensure optimally dark skies for all regions.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 23
January. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html or www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **