Western Rail Corridor

Schuhart

There was an item on RTE 2 news yesterday - something about people cycling some rail based contraption from Ennis to Sligo as part of the campaign. I can't see anything on the RTE website about it, but the Green Party seemed to have something to do with it.

Wonder if they're be any coverage of what they do when they get to your man's driveway.

monument

There was a photo of it in the IT, it seats six and they said it only cost 50 euro to make – the prefect (alternative to a) train for the line?

Anyway, I think they only planned to go as far as Claremorris isn’t the occupied driveway north of the town?

markf909

Schuhart wrote:

There was an item on RTE 2 news yesterday - something about people cycling some rail based contraption from Ennis to Sligo as part of the campaign. I can't see anything on the RTE website about it, but the Green Party seemed to have something to do with it.

Wonder if they're be any coverage of what they do when they get to your man's driveway.

I saw that too, pretty sure the news report on 6-1 news said that Iarnrod Eireann wouldn't allow them to cycle any of the WRC.

Schuhart

I found the six-one news report here. You are right – it ends by saying IE were not willing to give permission as they said there was a risk of derailment in parts of the line (which I dare say there would be if you suddenly hit someone’s driveway.)

According to the report, the yoke was built by the Green Party in County Clare and their plan is stated as taking it from Ennis to Sligo.

The Green Party spokesman seems lost in the misconception that the negative reaction to the WRC is about expecting rail lines to ‘make money’. The actual criticism, as we know, is that reopening the line brings no great social benefit that would justify the expense - which is quite a different thing. Again, the local Green Party activists seem to confuse the idea that subsidies are economically justified were there is some social benefit with the weird belief that any level of loss is justifiable if something is moving on rails.

The report mentions rail as important in the context of increasing oil prices. Again, it’s frustrating to see the misapplication of a general principle to say that our energy position is enhanced by wasting money on a transport link that will carry so few.

Transport21 Fan

Schuhart wrote:

Again, the local Green Party activists seem to confuse the idea that subsidies are economically justified were there is some social benefit with the weird belief that any level of loss is justifiable if something is moving on rails.

It's not just the Green Party, but this is pretty much the argument put forward by all pro-rail groups in Ireland and the UK (with the exception of Platform11) and it's a self-destructive game to play when promoting rail transport as it just comes across as some kind of weird fetish for tracks in the countryside at any cost.

This mindset comes directly from the UK rail enthusiats and the whole "Beeching was a Naughty Man!!"/Titfield Thunderbolt end of the spectrum.

In very pro rail transport countries like France, Germany, Switzerland and Austria, under used railway lines close and are replaced by bus services to this very day. The difference is that unlike CIE there is a tendency to give these lines a real go before the plug is pulled. But if this fails, the lines closes and everybody accepts it (but unlike CIE, they put on a replacement bus service which is usually an improvement on the closed rail service). You simply do not get the same "defend the rural railway branchline as our birth right!" carry-on that you get in the UK and by default has been imported into Ireland.

Yer man down in Clare was being laughed at by RTE as were 90% of the people in this country looking at these circus clowns on their funny bike demanding their choo-choo. This kind of rail lobbying lets down the cause big time.

Some of the bizzare "rail transport economics" out there are on the most extreme esoteric boundaries of quantum physics and go to incredible lenghts to "justify" why a rural rail line should be opened. It just makes railways look like a loser everytime. You do not need to be Stephen Hawkins to explain why rail to Navan will work and why rail between Tuam and Claremorris and onto Collooney won't work.

If there is no sound case to reopen a rail line in terms of it pulling in the punters in huge numbers, then there is simply no case at all.

nollaig

You do not need to be Stephen Hawkins to explain why rail to Navan will work and why rail between Tuam and Claremorris and onto Collooney won't work.

Why wont it work between Tuam & Claremorris? I know all about the level crossings, but is there another reason?

westtip

nollaig wrote:

Why wont it work between Tuam & Claremorris? I know all about the level crossings, but is there another reason?

Yes there just aren't enough people wanting to use it, there isn't the critical mass of people living in the area to justrify it.

nollaig

Yes there just aren't enough people wanting to use it, there isn't the critical mass of people living in the area to justrify it.

So how many passengers would it have to carry on a daily basis to justify it?

Schuhart

nollaig wrote:

So how many passengers would it have to carry on a daily basis to justify it?

I think the feasibility volume point was reasonably well made in an earlier thread, using the comparison of the Dunboyne study here.

Reinstating the Dunboyne track, including property acquisition, seems to be about €110 million. Reinstating the Tuam to Claremorris section is estimated in the McCann report at €58.9 million. Dunboyne is estimated to carry 2 million passengers p.a. so, to be in the same game, Tuam to Claremorris would need to carry about 1 million passengers p.a..

Given the estimated load for the whole WRC is 750 per day (or 365*750 = 273,750 p.a. assuming they get the same load on Chrismas Day), I think its reasonably clear that Tuam to Claremorris isn’t a starter and the WRC as a whole is just not at the races.

MarkoP11

Should bear in mind even at 2 million a year Dunboyne is a loss maker

nollaig

Reinstating the Dunboyne track, including property acquisition, seems to be about €110 million. Reinstating the Tuam to Claremorris section is estimated in the McCann report at €58.9 million.

So do the people who are against the WRC reopening agree or disagree with the McCann report???

अधिनायक

nollaig wrote:

So do the people who are against the WRC reopening agree or disagree with the McCann report???

Let's see who were the members of the 'expert working group'

• Mr Alec Fleming Clare County Manager
• Mr Tom Kavanagh Galway County Manager
• Mr Des Mahon Mayo County Manager
• Mr John Tiernan Roscommon County Manager
• Mr Hubert Kearns Sligo County Manager
• Mr Edmond Gleeson Limerick County Manager
• Mr Maurice Moloney Cork County Manager
• Mr Jim McGovern Director, West Regional Authority
• Mr Tom Kirby Director, Mid West Regional Authority
• Mr Matt Donnelly Director, Border Regional Authority
• Mr John McAleer Director, South West Regional Authority
• Mr Frank Dawson Galway County Development Board
• Ms Lisa McAllister Chief Executive WDC
• Ms Deirdre Frost Policy Analyst WDC
• Mr Gerry Finn Director BMW Regional Assembly
• Fr Michéal MacGréil SJ Westport, Co Mayo WOT
• Mr Terry Byrne Sligo WOT
• Cllr Michael McGreal Chairman, West Regional Authority
• Mr Martin Cunniffe Claremorris, Co Mayo
• Cllr Tom McHugh Tuam, Co Galway
• Ms Helen Rochford-Brennan Tubbercurry, Co Sligo
• Mr Michael Reidy Manager, Programmes and Projects Unit CIE
• Mr Tom Finn Manager, Strategic Planning Unit IE
• Mr Robert Leech RPA
• Mr Ed O’Callaghan DoT

Few of these people could honestly be described as experts in matters of railway demand. The RPA's statements that the WRC's catchment is characterised by low population density with no "critical mass" and that there was "no formal demand modelling" to underpin the project, were removed from the final report along with IE's estimates for the tiny number of passengers expected on the route.

Essentially if you ask a group of people if they'd like central government to spend a boat load of money in their area on anything their answer will be 'Yes please'. That's what I'd say.

I would have more faith in a report from an international rail consultancy with genuine expertise and no personal interest in the final decision.

Maybe you're asking if the costs are reasonably estimated. I guess that they are as they would have come from IE/RPA.

Schuhart

Pretty much what अधिनायक said. The McCann report made no assessment of benefits. What we now know suggests this was for political reasons.

We have a reasonable estimate of the cost of reinstating the WRC, broken down by section, in the McCann report.

We now have the projected passenger numbers which were not published in the McCann report, but seem reasonable (and possibly optimistic) by comparison to Limerick-Ennis and Limerick-Waterford.

We have the example of the Dunboyne report which illustrates what costs/benefits are associated with a feasible reopening. This suggests the WRC does not come close to delivering social benefits (aka passenger journeys) on the scale required to justify the investment.

On this basis, does anyone doubt that the WRC proposal simply does not cut the mustard?

MarkoP11

nollaig wrote:

So do the people who are against the WRC reopening agree or disagree with the McCann report???

Depends on the version you got, there are in fact 3, the first draft with the numbers and the definitive no, the second WOT altered version given out in Castlebar and the one the minister got

The costs are reasonably solid, the number were done by Faber Maunsell and are comparable to others. Issue is they are for reinstatement not a 21st century railway, note huge civil works on Midleton line to kill level crossings and so on the costs don't include that or in fact the actual rolling stock

Ennis Limerick is below expectations in fact, 60% of all users are en route to Dublin anyway

nollaig

We now have the projected passenger numbers which were not published in the McCann report, but seem reasonable (and possibly optimistic) by comparison to Limerick-Ennis and Limerick-Waterford.

What are these projected passenger numbers? Are they in another report?

Depends on the version you got, there are in fact 3, the first draft with the numbers and the definitive no, the second WOT altered version given out in Castlebar and the one the minister got

I just googled it and read the first hit I got. I thought it was vague to be honest, the version I read. There was bo breakdown of why it costs so much, like it was something really high for the section north of claremorris but doesnt say why or how they got ot that figure???

MarkoP11

The online version is the one the minister got and is the version of record

The line north of Tuam is classifed as a light railway, beyond Claremorris its a joke. No one is arguing the costs to reopen, the problem is to reopen to a modern standard could easily double to numbers

Schuhart

nollaig wrote:

What are these projected passenger numbers? Are they in another report?

The forecast comes from documents obtained from the Department of Transport under Freedom of Information. The relevant article was posted in an earlier thread.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=51500512&postcount=1
Frank McDonald, Environment Editor, Irish Times, 07/06/2006

The Government proceeded with plans to reinstate much of the Western Rail Corridor (WRC) despite forecasts that it would attract only 750 passengers per day and could require an annual subvention of up to €10 million,The Irish Times has learned.….

Do you see any reason for disputing this figure, or the conclusion that the WRC does not cut the mustard?

nollaig

Do you see any reason for disputing this figure, or the conclusion that the WRC does not cut the mustard?

Oh yeah, remember reading that now. But again, here, he doesnt say how he came up with the 750 passengers. Did he do a survey or what??? Is it just a guess?

Schuhart

All I know is that the figure comes from material released by the Department of Transport. As a ball park, the figure seems realistic when you compare it to actual passenger numbers travelling Limerick-Ennis (and taking account of the fact that most of them are actually travelling Dublin-Ennis) and generous when you compare it to the negligible numbers travelling Limerick-Waterford. And recall that whatever level of business the WRC attracts, it can hardly be more than the 500,000 actual passengers using the Dublin Westport service. All that suggests an estimate of a couple of hundred thousand annual passengers for the WRC is fair enough.

So you see any reason for disputing this figure, or the conclusion that the WRC does not cut the mustard?

nollaig

All I know is that the figure comes from material released by the Department of Transport. As a ball park, the figure seems realistic when you compare it to actual passenger numbers travelling Limerick-Ennis (and taking account of the fact that most of them are actually travelling Dublin-Ennis) and generous when you compare it to the negligible numbers travelling Limerick-Waterford. And recall that whatever level of business the WRC attracts, it can hardly be more than the 500,000 actual passengers using the Dublin Westport service. All that suggests an estimate of a couple of hundred thousand annual passengers for the WRC is fair enough.

So you see any reason for disputing this figure, or the conclusion that the WRC does not cut the mustard?

Actually, Yeah, I do see a reason for disputing it. I need to see proof from where it came. Fair enough, if there was logic behind it. But I'd like to know what that logic is. I dont belive stuff just because I read it. But again, its fair enough like, if they came up with the figure by actually compiling a survey or something. But by reading that, it sounds like the figure just popped into their heads. Remember, on Eddie Hobbs show when he showed a clip of Seamus Brennan saying how he had jotted down the initial figure for Luas on a napkin or something, reminds me of that! I'm not saying they are not correct in this their figure of 750 passengers, I do not know. I would like to know though how they came to it

As for the WRC, initially I was in favour of it all opening. Now, I'm not, osters on here can be very persuasive. I do think certainly to Tuam is a good idea. North of Tuam, hmm, that is one that I'd have my doubts about.

Transport21 Fan

nollaig wrote:

As for the WRC, initially I was in favour of it all opening. Now, I'm not, osters on here can be very persuasive. I do think certainly to Tuam is a good idea. North of Tuam, hmm, that is one that I'd have my doubts about.

I could probably be tempted to accept the WRC from Tuam to Claremorris if a whole new alignment avoiding the multiple level crossings was proposed.

To reopen the line as it is now with three level crossings on the N17 just south of Claremorris would be nuts. If they either move the N17, or put the line on "Stilts" it would work then (but the cost would be in the Dublin Metro league).

But even with that, the population density factor simply cannot be avoided. Perhaps if Galway, Mayo and Sligo got together and did a SDZ for the corridor to reopen it in stages - but built to a much higher level of engineering?

But that is not going to happen as one-off houses have taken over the West. If you walk along the line between Tuam and Coolooney you are struck by the stark reality that far more people live away from the rail line, than near it and the ones that do have build driveways and car dealerships over the tracks. It a sea of one-off houses here there and everywhere - each seperated by fields.

Tuam is as far north on the WRC as I am going to accept for reopening simply because the rail line from Athenry to Tuam was built to a high standardand fully seperated - after Tuam it is just an exercise in locosexual mastrubatory fantasy. Irish taxpayers should not be funding people's hobbies to the tune of hundreds of millions of Euro.

Schuhart

nollaig wrote:

I dont belive stuff just because I read it.

You are absolutely right to query figures, and seek a source and explanation. Teh problem is I don't know if anyone posting here has that information, though, so it is necessary to make a judgement as to how reasonable the estimate we have looks to be. And bear in mind, we do know this estimate was sourced from the Department of Transport. That's not proof of reliability - but at least it means it comes from some sort of reasonable source.

Can I suggest that if Dublin-Westport attracts 500,000 actual passengers - not an estimate, not a survey, but actual real life experience of running a rail service in the West with the biggest city we've got at one end of the line - then commonsense would suggest the WRC would at best attract a couple of hundred thousand. Experience with Limerick Waterford would be far more negative, suggesting a rail service without Dublin at one end will be a failure.

So if someone suggests, as seems to be the case, that the passenger load of the WRC will be of the order of 200,000 to 300,000 it doesn't really look to be something that requires a high level of scrutiny. I can see reasons why it might be argued that the estimate is too high. I really cannot see how anyone might be worried that it is too low.

Can you see any reason why the WRC - an infrequent service, slower than road, attempting to serve a dispersed population with access to cars - should depart greatly from that estimate?

DerekP11

Nollaig

The 750 passengers a day figure on the WRC, comes from an Irish Rail commissioned report that was carried out by Fauber Maunsell prior to the formation of the WRC working group. Frank McDonald is quoting from that report.

To date proponents of the WRC have disagreed with this figure, but offered no alternative or proof that it is wrong.

Schuhart

Hopefully DerekP11’s post removes any problem with the 750 per day estimate – particularly as that estimate seems consistent with real life experience.

nollaig wrote:

I do think certainly to Tuam is a good idea. North of Tuam, hmm, that is one that I'd have my doubts about.

McCann suggests that the Athenry – Tuam portion will cost 35 million to reinstate. Taking our Dunboyne rule of thumb, that would equate to about 500,000 journeys per annum. That’s roughly double the estimate for the whole WRC or, put another way, the entire customer base of the Dublin Westport service.

That suggests the social benefits (aka passenger journeys) don’t justify the investment. So what’s the basis for your certainty about Tuam?

monument

DerekP11 would you know where one could get this Irish Rail commissioned report?

MarkoP11

We have laid our hands on documents that the authors denied even existed but two reports prove elusive one of which is the Faber Maunsell WRC report. Even if we had a copy we could never say we did since it woudl be a leaked copy. You won't be able to get a copy and FOI doesn't apply since IE are not covered by the act as far as I know. If the report ever gets loose the whole WRC will die so you can understand politically why you won't be seeing it

Last on the record comment from IE concerning the WRC said nothing of Tuam or Claremorris, it clearly stated the project was political

750 is the number and it looks quite correct

dowlingm

what's the other "black" report apart from FaberMaunsell?

westtip

nollaig wrote:

So how many passengers would it have to carry on a daily basis to justify it?

I really don't know the answer to that question - my gut feeling says the line will be a white elephant and can't really be justified - turn it into a long distance footpath would be my mantra.

nollaig

I could probably be tempted to accept the WRC from Tuam to Claremorris if a whole new alignment avoiding the multiple level crossings was proposed.

To reopen the line as it is now with three level crossings on the N17 just south of Claremorris would be nuts. If they either move the N17, or put the line on "Stilts" it would work then (but the cost would be in the Dublin Metro league).

Actually, There are 4 level crossings on that road, 2 between Claremorris & Ballindine and 2 between Ballindine & Milltown. Think I might have said previously that there were 3 but forgot about one of them. The one thats right beside Ballindine could cause a lot of traffic problems too, I admit.

There is a bypass road planned which would eliminate 1 (maybe two???) of those level crossings, but the bypass would cross the rail line at another point. It wont be built for yers anyways but you'd wonder do the people writing reports etc. about the wrc know these things?

Actually, when did trains stop travelling on the line? I remember a freight train used to pass every Wednesday??? a few years back

Transport21 Fan

nollaig wrote:

Actually, when did trains stop travelling on the line? I remember a freight train used to pass every Wednesday??? a few years back

There was still the odd freight train back in the 1990's.