A United Ireland

bonkey

Originally posted by Johnny 5
My friend, even if by some strange miracle we have anything in common with Ulster Protestants ...

You know it amazes me.

Assuming you come from the North (which is fair, judging from previous posts of yours I believe), you share a country with Ulster Protestants.

Now - here's the kicker. Wait for it...

If by some miracle you ever get the "re-Unification" of Ireland that you are hoping for you will still share a country with Ulster Protestants.

So, if you think it would take a strange miracle for you to ever have anything in common with them, I have to question exactly where you think you're living now, and where you think you'll be living in a United Ireland.

jc

Villain

Originally posted by daveirl
I know I said I wouldn't reply anymore but I'm not making a comment so I suppose it's OK. The polls your looking for are part of a study that's been linked numerous times already in this thread.

oh right,:rolleyes: I should have read some more of the thread!!

I think thats the first time I have rolled eyes at myself:o

Villain

Originally posted by daveirl
I will - http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/othelem/research/nisas/press1.htm

Any more up to date figures???

Things have changed a bit up there since those figures were put together!!

sceptre

Originally posted by irish1
Any more up to date figures???

Things have changed a bit up there since those figures were put together!!

Attitudes apparently haven't changed that much.

Survey done between October 2002 and March 2003
(it's linked via the page Dave linked to so it might be a good idea to have a good read of the original link)

Villain

Originally posted by sceptre
Attitudes apparently haven't changed that much.

Survey done between October 2002 and March 2003
(it's linked via the page Dave linked to so it might be a good idea to have a good read of the original link)

Thats doesn't specify what % of catholics want a united Ireland does it??

The polls seem to be with a general population, perhaps I'm missing something, but we don't know what way these surveys were carried out no geography offered.

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey was launched in October 1998.

For every adult interview completed, Life and Times has donated £1 to Action Cancer - a Northern Ireland cancer charity. To date, this has raised over £6,000

Thats only 6000 people questioned since 1998!!!!!!

Johnny 5

Originally posted by Johnny 5
My friend, even if by some strange miracle we have anything in common with Ulster Protestants then I'd take a long hard look at yourself, and ask yourself how 80 years changed so much.

To quote myself.

When I say northern nationalists and northern protestants have nothing in common, I mean it in terms of culture, society, history, language and lifestyle. That's exactly the problem in the North, life is so secular in that we don't share any of these with protestants. We don't play the same sports, we don't listen to the same music, they don't speak gaeilge and they as you say came from scotland.

In a UI where equality for everyone is assured, we can move on from the petty secular society of the north to a more inclusive for all, where our backgrounds won't matter.

thesecret7

but the fact of the matter cannot be shifted. Whether a line of the map on Ireland should be deleted, it cannot make any changes to the people and the peoples minds.It is of the clearest truth that since partition on this island, the resisdnets of the people in the Nrothern Ireland have a bigger sharing of the culture.

And the people of the protesant faith wont simply change their culture since they have joined a new country. We have the same similarity to the other countires in the world liek Germany and Korea. We must face this situation for generations to come.

It is with this endevious that i will make it my most of my ability to find the book which i have seen this infomations.

Zombrex

Originally posted by irish1
Thats doesn't specify what % of catholics want a united Ireland does it??

The question asked in the survey was -

"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"

Results for Catholics were -

• Yes, should unify with the Republic - 58%
• No, should not unify with the Republic - 20%
• (Would not vote) - 5%
• (Not eligible to vote) - 0%
• (Refused) - 1%
• (Other answer) - 2%
• (Don't know) -15%

That is out of the people who identified themselves as "Catholic" (41% of the 1800 total)

So, only just over half of Catholics questioned believed that the North should be unified.


The results for the over all population (Catholic + Protestant and everyone else) survey were -
27% Yes
54% No
10% Didn't Know
with all the usual "wouldn't vote" stuff at the bottom (can't be bothered writing it out again).

So I think N.I is a long long way away from a democratic union with the republic.

Originally posted by irish1
Thats only 6000 people questioned since 1998!!!!!!

Not quite sure where you got that from (looked at the webpage but must have missed it) but the technical details pdf from 2002 says 1800 people were interviews from random addresses across the North. That seems like a pretty standard sample size to me. The technical details PDF goes into great detail about the system used to conduct the survey.

Technical details of the 2002 survey

The overall design

The 2002 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey involved 1800 face-to-face interviews
with adults aged 18 or over. The main interview was carried out using computer assisted
personal interviewing (CAPI) and the respondent was then asked to complete a self
completion questionnaire.

http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2002/tech02.pdf

monument

[*]Yes, should unify with the Republic - 58%
[*]No, should not unify with the Republic - 20%
[*](Would not vote) - 5%
[*](Not eligible to vote) - 0%
[*](Refused) - 1%
[*](Other answer) - 2%
[*](Don't know) -15%

101% - very strange.


"Which Northern Ireland political Party would you support?

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 24
Social Democratic & Labour Party (SDLP) 23
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 11
Alliance Party 5
Sinn Fein 9
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 1
Women's Coalition 2
Other Party (specify) 1
(None) 16
Other answer (specify) 4
(Don't know) 5 "

Hmm... It looks as if that's a bit out of date or just wrong, so I'd have to question all of the results relativity to today.

"Set up by Queen's University Belfast and University of Ulster and and run every year"

What happned to 2003's results?

Zombrex

Originally posted by monument
101% - very strange.

I think that is common in surveys ... the Technical Details PDF covers margine of error I think

Originally posted by monument
Hmm... It looks as if that's a bit out of date or just wrong, so I'd have to question all of the results relativity to today.

Well it was taken between Oct 2002 and Jan 2003, so of course it would be out of date considering the upset election was only a few months ago.

You could say that the results for the election before this one, were just plain wrong

While the support for different parties fluxuates quite dramatically as political events unfold, I don't think the support for a United Ireland has changed much. It is still between 60%-70% percent of Catholics and hardly any Protestants, just like it was in 1996.

Originally posted by monument
What happned to 2003's results?

"2002" survey only ended in Jan 2003, so it is safe to assume that "2003" ended in Jan 2004 and that they are still processing the results.

Villain

Originally posted by Wicknight
Not quite sure where you got that from (looked at the webpage but must have missed it) but the technical details pdf from 2002 says 1800 people were interviews from random addresses across the North. That seems like a pretty standard sample size to me. The technical details PDF goes into great detail about the system used to conduct the survey.

Here:http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/about/

thesecret7

27% Yes
54% No
10% Didn't Know-

This is the fact of the matter that I have been stressing. This united ireland dream has only to exist in your mind.

Villain

Originally posted by thesecret7
This is the fact of the matter that I have been stressing. This united ireland dream has only to exist in your mind.

I'm not quite sure those polls show an acurate reflection of the northern Ireland population, I'm not saying that the majority of people want a United Ireland but I just wouldn't take those polls as Gospel.

As I quoted

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey was launched in October 1998.

For every adult interview completed, Life and Times has donated £1 to Action Cancer - a Northern Ireland cancer charity. To date, this has raised over £6,000

Thats only 6000 adults since 1998!!

bonkey

Originally posted by irish1
Thats only 6000 adults since 1998!!

Yes indeed....but are you familiar enough with mathematical modelling concepts to be able to do more than take a wild guess as to whether or not this is sufficient to achieve statistically reliable results???

If not, then its a piece of spurious information, as it is only evidence backing up a wild guess.

If you do know how statistical accuracy and sample-size are related, then surely explaining why 1000-ish people per year is insufficient would also be equally relevant?

Indeed, given that the 2002 information was based on a sample-size in the region of 1800 people, you'd need to show why that is an insufficient number from which to base statistical information from.

Otherwise, all you're still doing is guessing as to whether or not the information is reliable, regardless of the links to back up the information your guess is based on.

jc

Villain

Originally posted by bonkey
Yes indeed....but are you familiar enough with mathematical modelling concepts to be able to do more than take a wild guess as to whether or not this is sufficient to achieve statistically reliable results???

No certainly not, I'm not pertaining to know all the exact details on how accurate the results are, but I'm making the point that the numbers questioned are very low.

Also the if you look at the results for which Political party do you support and look at the election results it would seem that the polls were a fair bit off.

Just my opinion do, which counts for very little

monument

Originally posted by Wicknight
"2002" survey only ended in Jan 2003, so it is safe to assume that "2003" ended in Jan 2004 and that they are still processing the results.

Sorry, had not seen that on the site.

pablo21

I'm probably going to regret joining this thread but here goes.......
I'd just like to mention the strong commercial links North and South of the Border which are completely ignorant of Race Creed or Color and have been so for a very long time. And again without insulting anyone here, the ages of alot of people posting here does not exactly lend weight to alot of the statments that are made. I've had the pleasure of meeting, working, trading and socialising with with all types of people from the North of this country and I've yet to meet a bad one! If you look you'll find your typical yob threatning kneecaps on both sides of the divide, but I dont believe they are the majority. Most people just want to get on with their lives and look after the people they care for. Thats not too say that they are politically ambivilant. How many of you have been out for a night anywhere in the North? Its a bloody great spot for a night out!!
I've also met and dealt with people who were imprisoned and partook in the blanket protest years and have listened to detailed accounts of how they were treated and they imeasurable brutality that was doled out to them on a day to day basis.
I've met the wife of Martin McCauley who's currently imrisoned illegally in Colombia and heard her stories of how he was shot and his friend killed by british soldiers and when he seeked legal representation to attain justice, his solicitor was killed (Pat Finucan for those not in the know). She then described how a bomb was placed at the back door of her house early one morning. Rosemary Nelson then took over as their solicitor and was shot also shortly thereafter by British Death Squads. I cant stress enough here THIS IS NOT ANCIENT HISTORY! This is not people living in the past!
Do I think Ireland should be unified? Yes I do.
Do I think its possible? I dont know. I doubt it.
I think the best to hope for is peace for the people that live there and remember that they are not an alien race! They are only an hour or so up the road from us so why not drop up and check it out for yourself sometime!

musing/ranting over! Have a nice day whether your north or south!!

dlofnep

Pardon my belated fix, but I made an error on the poll. The last entry "No (Protestant: ROI)", should be No (Protestant: NI). Can a Mod rectify this for me please?

As for the poll's, I find it very interesting to see a 50/50 line down the middle. I, on a personal level expected possibly a 70/30 in favour of a united Ireland but it shows that alot more people care about our economy and other factors oposed to a United Ireland. Interesting arguments nonetheless..

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Villain

Originally posted by daveirl
For a survey/opinion poll they aren't very low. Just ask any statistician.

Would that not depend on the overall population and in this case the geography also.

As I said the only poll we can compare anything with is the elections and there was a difference there.

Zombrex

Originally posted by irish1
Would that not depend on the overall population and in this case the geography also.

I think they take all that into account. The technical document is pretty impressive in its detail.

Even if you disagree with the result (and to be fair you don't really have anything to support your disagreement other than your gut feeling) it still seems like as accurate a survey as they would do.

And while political affiliations can fluxuate rapidly (just look at Spain) I think more long term established notions such as uniting Ireland, would not change much. In 1996 70% wanted United Ireland, in 2002 it was 58%, so it seems to fluxuate around 60% to 70% over the years. I would say the result are pretty accurate.

Villain

Originally posted by Wicknight
I would say the result are pretty accurate.

Well as you say attitudes change so often, and people that are willing to answer a vote may not be willing to vote on election day!

I'm not discrediting the polls altogether, I just think they shouldn't be taken as gospel, as you say they seemed way off in spain and even exit polls in spain were wrong!!

thesecret7

I'd just like to mention the strong commercial links North and South of the Border which are completely ignorant of Race Creed or Color and have been so for a very long time.

I have the opionions that this is not the case. Isnt it not ture that the Presendent of our country have said that he thinks the cross border trade is one of the lowest of all the internationals border in the EU.

Villain

Originally posted by thesecret7
I have the opionions that this is not the case. Isnt it not ture that the Presendent of our country have said that he thinks the cross border trade is one of the lowest of all the internationals border in the EU.

exactly so if we united it would grow!


just my opinion

sceptre

Originally posted by thesecret7
I have the opionions that this is not the case. Isnt it not ture that the Presendent of our country have said that he thinks the cross border trade is one of the lowest of all the internationals border in the EU.

The President of our country is a person of the female persuasion. When did she say this? (I'm not contradicting you by the way, I'm just wondering when McAleese was in a position to make any comment about cross-border trade)

pablo21

I wasnt offering an international statistic, I was speaking from experience, so whether you doubt it or not is neither here nor there, and when exactly did the president say this? I've personaly spent in excess of 100K on plant and equipment in the north this year alone, I work on a daily basis with much larger companies who maintain bases both North and South of the Country.

I dont know if your aware of this or not but, VAT does not have to be paid at source when bringing stuff across the border. Works wonders for cash flow.

thesecret7

exactly so if we united it would grow!

But how have you this opinions? It is false because it wont happend? And how have you known that it will grow. It may not becuase the people dont want to buy anythings from those other people who they have no liking for.

The President of our country is a person of the female persuasion. When did she say this?

IYes he is a woman. The Presendent said it on the making of the programme of the Programmes " Mary MCAlesse" on RTE a close time ago. I think a week or more ago.

Villain

Originally posted by thesecret7
But how have you this opinions? It is false because it wont happend?

How can you know it wont??

I think it would develop trade, no real evidence to back it up, Could call it an educated guess I suppose.

bonkey

Rather than see this ridiculous "but how do you know it will/won't" Punch and Judy show continue.....

If neither of you have any information to link to, then its clear that you're arguing over nothing but personal opinion...which is pointless.

I don't know where secret7 got his quote from, but I couldnt find anything on it. A google on "Ireland cross border trade lowest" did find an interesting document as the first hit which puts us far from the bottom of the rankings in most areas of cross-border commerce that it deals with.

Secondly, I would point out that having a single neighbouring nation to have land-based cross-border trade with puts us at a significant disadvantage, despite that not being apparent in the document I mention above.

Finally, what our trade is relative to other nations and their neighbours is, is pretty irrelevant. What is far more relevant is that cross-border trade with Northern Ireland has seen a steady increase since (I believe) the 70s.

No-one should have any problems finding the figures for that if they just know how to use a search engine, so you shouldn't have to even ask me for links.

jc

Villain

Originally posted by bonkey
Rather than see this ridiculous "but how do you know it will/won't" Punch and Judy show continue.....

Nah, punch and judy was far more entertaining!!

Wasn't looking to get into a big debate just expressing an opinion having worked with a company that trades in 32 counties.

Sorry:D