[NI] Voter apathy a pressing concern

Victor

Ah, time for some legal gerrymandering

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/3674245.stm

Voter apathy a pressing concern
Mark Devenport
BBC Northern Ireland political editor

Northern Ireland's politicians turned cartographers this week, poring over new maps issued by the Boundaries Commission following the recommendation that the province should retain its 18 Westminster constituencies.

However, the commission has suggested some radical boundary changes and, for the MPs and assembly members whose careers depend on electoral geography, the devil is in the detail.

The sitting Ulster Unionist MP for East Antrim, Roy Beggs, seems, for example, reasonably sanguine about the replacement of his constituency with a new seat to be called Antrim Coast and Glens.

Is this because the Ulster Unionist Party are happy to swap loyalist Cloughfern, which becomes part of North Belfast, for the nationalist Glens in the hope that tactical voting might help them turn back the DUP tide?

Maybe so, but they should bear in mind that by the time these changes come into effect - presuming they are not overturned by local inquiries - we shall almost certainly have already had another Westminster election at which Sammy Wilson will have renewed his challenge for the seat.

Further south, the changes to South Down give Sinn Fein cause for hope, as the loss of Ballynahinch and the addition of half of Newry would strengthen the nationalist identity of the seat.

Despite that, the SDLP assembly member PJ Bradley also appears relaxed about the proposals.

The SDLP can at least take solace from the notion that they are likely to defend the existing seat within its existing boundaries next time around.

Whether they will defend it with its existing MP, Eddie McGrady, remains to be seen.

Given that - as Tip O'Neill said - "all politics is local", our elected representatives can be forgiven for studying their maps.

But if they get a chance to lift their eyes and glance at the latest report from the Electoral Commission they might wonder exactly how many voters will be bothering to go to the polls in any future contests.

The commission analysed the figures for last November's assembly elections and found that 122,000 fewer people took part than in 1998.

The commission says the fall in the numbers registered to vote masked the decline in turnout.

Officially turnout was 64%, extremely healthy by UK standards. But the commission compared the number of people going to the polls to the population over 18 and reached a much lower figure of just 56%.

Vacuum

The commission says 46% of the people it surveyed for its report had little or no interest in local politics.

Contrasting that with a similar survey carried out in 1998 which suggested only 32% were similarly disinterested, the commission believes apathy and disengagement is a growing problem, especially among the young.

In this regard, Northern Ireland is catching up with the rest of the UK.

But why? Some who took part in a commission focus group cited the lack of movement in the political process, others blamed the confrontational nature of politics.

The idea that a vacuum does not stimulate interest is probably self-evident.

But the notion that confrontation is to blame for falling turnout is a bit of a conundrum.

After all, wasn't it the high stakes nature of politics during the Troubles which gave Northern Ireland its inflated turnout figures, as voters went to the polls as much to ensure the other side didn't win as to back their own candidate?

Is it heresy to suggest that turnout might be falling because politics has started to work, albeit imperfectly?

Nevertheless, Northern Ireland politics may be in particular danger of alienating younger voters because of its transitional nature.

If the old unionist-nationalist battle is putting some off, it has yet to be replaced by the bread and butter politics of other societies.

Elsewhere in the commission report, the thinktank Democratic Dialogue blames media commentators, myself included, for framing last year's assembly election within traditional constitutional lines, concentrating on the bigger parties.

The fact is, though, that we are still stuck in a talks process dominated by concerns over paramilitarism and powersharing.

Even if a devolved government had been formed last year the peculiar system at Stormont would have made it hard for voters to ensure their chosen candidates' policies on, say, the 11-plus or health care, were translated into action by the relevant government department.

Tackling apathy may not only require the "voter education and public awareness strategies" suggested by the Electoral Commission, but also the development of a political system where the way someone votes makes a difference when it comes to bread and butter issues.