Dublin Tally

jd

so far
noon


mitchell 23
Ryan 17
Rossa 12.5
Mary L 12
Bacik 10
Mckenna 9.5
Brady 8


I'll update if it changes signifigantly as more boxes opened..
jd

gandalf

Well if that is accurate then its all going to depend on where Mitchells surplus will go to. It won't go to SF or FF, it depends on how it breaks down between De Rossa, Bacik and McKenna. Looks like the race for the final seat is going down to the wire !!!

One major piece of good news from that (again if it is accurate) is the electorate copped on and Brady is out.

I can't believe we have to wait until tomorrow for the results of the EP election. We should do what the dutch did and announce early

gandalf

jd are you in the count centre btw??

dod

Disgusted that Mary-Lou looks like taking a seat. Thank God that Eoin Ryan outpolled that thug Royston.

jd

Remember
quota is abt 20% of vote

I feel very happy for Eoin Ryan TBH
jd

Raskolnikov

Originally posted by gandalf
Well if that is accurate then its all going to depend on where Mitchells surplus will go to. It won't go to SF or FF, it depends on how it breaks down between De Rossa, Bacik and McKenna. Looks like the race for the final seat is going down to the wire !!!

One major piece of good news from that (again if it is accurate) is the electorate copped on and Brady is out.

I can't believe we have to wait until tomorrow for the results of the EP election. We should do what the dutch did and announce early

Wow, Brady has done awfully, I never saw his share slipping as low as that.

Mary Lou in all likelyhood won't take a seat. She may have 12% of first preferences but she's going to get hammered on transfers.

jd

Originally posted by gandalf
jd are you in the count centre btw??

Fraid not

Radio and various web sites..
Actally meant to be doing acollege assignment

jd

Lemming

If Mitchell gets in, Irish indigenous software companies are (potentially) f*cked

That tosser is backing the reviled EU software patent bill blindly because it'll get his profile up.

bad, bad, stupid, foolish man.

jd

Originally posted by Lemming
If Mitchell gets in, Irish indigenous software companies are (potentially) f*cked

That tosser is backing the reviled EU software patent bill blindly because it'll get his profile up.

bad, bad, stupid, foolish man.

De Rossa has a letter in the Irish Times today against it!!

Lemming

Originally posted by jd
De Rossa has a letter in the Irish Times today against it!!

Well about time it started getting proper coverage! I have a copy of an email response from DeRossa to a guy on the ILUG* mailing list which I'm impressed with. He actually bothered to take time and understand specific technical legal questions relating to IT and answered them. No half-arsed conceptual vague ideas from him!

I also have one from Mitchell, which was to say the least ... less than impressive. It looks like he wrote it in two minutes whilst scratching his balls and shaving at the same time. To say it's lacking in any sort of content is an understatement and quite frankly shows that he hasn't a f*cking clue


* Irish Linux Users Group

chewy

didn't expect that drop for roysten hoped but didn't expect haha....

exit poll says 75% yes to ref

Raskolnikov

Dublin Euro Tally (on 50% of votes) 2:30pm 12 June
Mitchell (FG) 22.27%, Ryan (FF) 16.06%, De Rossa (LB) 12.78%, McDonald (SF) 12.02%,
Bacik (LB) 10.36%, McKenna (GP) 9.96%, Brady (FF) 8.30%, Higgins (SP) 4.93%,
Despard (CS) 1.32, Price (IND) 1.11%, Prenderville (IND) 0.47%, Doonan (IND) 0.42%
Turnout estimated at 46.92%

Bacik is looking v. strong.

jd

Originally posted by Raskolnikov


Bacik is looking v. strong.

Where Roystons votes go will be ineteresting-they are probably the part of Ryans surplus that will be used for distribution when he is elected.
I'd guess Ryan will end up on about 24/5% off Roystons votes- so where will that 4/5 % from Royston go..

Cork

Originally posted by dod
Disgusted that Mary-Lou looks like taking a seat. Thank God that Eoin Ryan outpolled that thug Royston.

It is a pity about Mary Lou. Apart from been photographed with her leader - SF has pretty a negative atitude towards the EU.

But if that is what the Dublin electorate want.

My canidate was not elected in my local area. He put in a good show. He did not put up posters (environmental reasons) and spent around €300 on his campaign.

flogen

Originally posted by Cork
My canidate was not elected in my local area. He put in a good show. He did not put up posters (environmental reasons) and spent around €300 on his campaign.

Had a guy in the local elections who claimed to not put up posters due to envirmental reasons, was extremely unimpressed when I spoke to him at the door, and he basically told me it was because it cost too much.

I'm sad to say that I gave 1st to Mitchell, and I would have changed it had I known his support for the software bill.... DAMN IT!! tbh, all I knew was that Brady wasnt getting a lick of a vote, and neither were the Pro-life alliance (running on abortion as his only policy... THATS IT!!). I found there to be very little information on the european candidates, not even much leaflets in the door or anything. I should have known, De Rossa is a sex god (think i gave him 2nd or 3rd.. jesus, I may as well just post my entire vote up).

Flogen

Cork

Kathy Synott is also pro life. But the EU elections have nothing to do with issues like pro life or health.

But better, the electorate vent their anger at the government now than in 3 years time.

chewy

when are the local elections results or tallys coming out

therecklessone

Originally posted by Cork
Kathy Synott is also pro life. But the EU elections have nothing to do with issues like pro life or health.

But better, the electorate vent their anger at the government now than in 3 years time.

You're right Cork, there'll be enough of them subdued by their SSIAs maturing just in time for the next election...

flogen

Originally posted by Cork
But better, the electorate vent their anger at the government now than in 3 years time.

why? Would it not be better the electorate vent their justified anger when it will actually make a huge difference, while losses in Local elections isnt good news for FF, they'd prefer that to being kicked out of government.

Flogen

AngelofFire

great result for gay mitchell.Fine gael`s recovery campaign is working very well. Labour have a chance to win 2 seats. De rossa`s seat is almost gauranteed a lot of his number 2s will go to bacik. Labour will also benefit from mitchell`s surpluses and perhaps his voter`s other preferences.

therecklessone

Originally posted by AngelofFire
De rossa`s seat is almost gauranteed a lot of his number 2s will go to bacik.

Maybe, maybe not. De Rossa's entire vote will not be counted to distribute his surplus if elected, they only count the "last parcel received". That means that if Frank is elected after receiving transfers from another candidate then it is the parcel of votes he receives from that candidate that is examined to decide where his surplus should go.

Possible scenario...Frank reaches quota with transfers from elimination of Joe Higgins. They then count the last parcel received for Frank, i.e. Higgins ballots, to decide where the surplus goes.

jd

Originally posted by AngelofFire
great result for gay mitchell.Fine gael`s recovery campaign is working very well. Labour have a chance to win 2 seats. De rossa`s seat is almost gauranteed a lot of his number 2s will go to bacik. Labour will also benefit from mitchell`s surpluses and perhaps his voter`s other preferences.

Dublin Euro Tally (on 50% of votes) 2:30pm 12 June
Mitchell (FG) 22.27%,
Ryan (FF) 16.06%,
De Rossa (LB) 12.78%,
McDonald (SF) 12.02%,
Bacik (LB) 10.36%,
McKenna (GP) 9.96%,

---

Below this line won't get elected

Brady (FF) 8.30%,
Higgins (SP) 4.93%,
Despard (CS) 1.32,
Price (IND) 1.11%,
Prenderville (IND) 0.47%,
Doonan (IND) 0.42%

Without Brady total transfers are about 8% + Mitchell Surplus is = 11
These will go all over the place.

Next person to get elected after Mitchell will be on Brady's elimination-probably Ryan- and those votes over surplus from Roystan will transfer again

therecklessone

I think the destination of Joe Higgins votes after his elimination will be crucial. Effectively they'll decide who wins the fourth seat.

My guess is they'll split between Frank Ross, Bacik and Mary Lou. I can't see McKenna getting too many of them (Greens are pro-waste charges, Socialist Party are anti-)

If Bacik manages to stay ahead of McKenna until then I think she's in with a good chance. Mary Lou will be next out after Brady I reckon, so its a straight fight between Bacik and McKenna.

Victor

My guesstimate

Originally posted by jd
Dublin Euro Tally (on 50% of votes) 2:30pm 12 June
Mitchell (FG) 22.27%,
Ryan (FF) 16.06%,
De Rossa (LB) 12.78%,
McDonald (SF) 12.02%,
Bacik (LB) 10.36%,
McKenna (GP) 9.96%,

---

Below this line won't get elected

Brady (FF) 8.30%,
Higgins (SP) 4.93%,
Despard (CS) 1.32,
Price (IND) 1.11%,
Prenderville (IND) 0.47%,
Doonan (IND) 0.42%

Technically its still a very open race, but only if Mitchells surplus all goes below the line and distributions from eliminated candidates stay below the line. But yeah, it's unlikely.

Quota 20%+1

Mitchell elected

Next count, Mitchell surplus (~2.27%) distributed

Ryan (FF) +0.5%,
De Rossa (LB) +0.5%,
McKenna (GP) +0.5%,
Brady (FF) +0.5%,

Despard, Price, Prenderville, Doonan eliminated.

Next count Despard, Price, Prenderville, Doonan distributed (3.32%). Higgins may be eliminated - it would be a marginal call.

Ryan (FF) +0.5%,
De Rossa (LB) +0.5%, ,
McDonald (SF) +0.5%,
Bacik (LB) +0.3%,
McKenna (GP) +0.5%,
Brady (FF) +0.3%,

Higgins eliminated.

Next count Higgins distributed (4.93%).

Ryan (FF) +0.5%,
De Rossa (LB) +1.0%, ,
McDonald (SF) +1.0%,
Bacik (LB) +1.0%,
McKenna (GP) +1.0%,
Brady (FF) +0.5%,

Ryan (FF) 17.76%,
De Rossa (LB) 14.78%,
McDonald (SF) 13.52%,
Bacik (LB) 11.66%,
McKenna (GP) 11.96%,
Brady (FF) 9.60%,

Brady eliminated.

Next count Brady distributed (9.6%).

Ryan (FF) 5%,
De Rossa (LB) 1%,
McDonald (SF) 1%,
Bacik (LB) 1%,
McKenna (GP) 1%,

Ryan (FF) 22.76%,
De Rossa (LB) 15.78%,
McDonald (SF) 14.52%,
Bacik (LB) 12.66%,
McKenna (GP) 12.96%,

Ryan elected

Next count, Ryan surplus (~2.76%) distributed

De Rossa (LB) +0.3%,
McDonald (SF) +0.5%,
Bacik (LB) +0.3%,
McKenna (GP) +0.5%,

De Rossa (LB) 16.08%,
McDonald (SF) 15.02%,
Bacik (LB) 12.96%,
McKenna (GP) 13.46%,

Bacik eliminated.

Next count Bacik distributed (12.96%).

De Rossa (LB) +5%,
McDonald (SF) +2%,
McKenna (GP) +3%,

De Rossa (LB) 21.08%,
McDonald (SF) 17.02%,
McKenna (GP) 16.46%,

De Rossa elected

Next count, De Rossa surplus (1%) distributed

McDonald (SF) +0.2%,
McKenna (GP) +0.3%,

McDonald (SF) 17.22%,
McKenna (GP) 16.76%,

McDonald elected without reaching the quota.

Elected
Mitchell (FG)
Ryan (FF)
De Rossa (LB)
McDonald (SF)

jd

I think you may be underestimating the non transferables-certainly with Higgins votes

Victor

Originally posted by jd
I think you may be underestimating the non transferables-certainly with Higgins votes

Go away, its a guess

villain_97

Great Election for Fine Gael everywhere except Dublin even though they held up ok there also.

jd

THE FOLLOWING IS A GUESSTIMATE SAT EVENING

Mitchell (FG) 22.27% -2.27% 20.00% 0% 20.00% 0.00% 20.00% 0 20.00% 0 20.00%
Ryan (FF) 16.06% 0.35% 16.41% 0.60% 17.01% 0.40% 17.41% 5% 22.41% -2.41% 20.00%
DeRossa (LB) 12.78% 0.30% 13.08% 0.40% 13.48% 1.10% 14.58% 1% 15.58% 0.45% 16.03%
McDonald (SF) 12.02% 0.20% 12.22% 0.35% 12.57% 1.10% 13.67% 1% 14.67% 0.40% 15.07%
Bacik (LB) 10.36% 0.30% 10.66% 0.35% 11.01% 1.10% 12.11% 0.50% 12.61% 0.40% 13.01%
McKenna (GP) 9.96% 0.35% 10.31% 0.60% 10.91% 1% 11.91% 0.50% 12.41% 0.55% 12.96%
Brady (FF) 8.30% 0.15% 8.45% 0.30% 8.75% 0.30% 9.05% -9.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Higgins (SP) 4.93% 0.15% 5.08% 0.40% 5.48% -5.48% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Despard (CS) 1.32% 0.05% 1.37% -1.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Price (IND) 1.11% 0.05% 1.16% -1.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Prenderville (IND) 0.47% 0.05% 0.52% -0.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Doonan (IND) 0.42% 0.05% 0.47% -0.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
NT 0 0.27% 0.27% 0.52% 0.79% 0.48% 1.27% 1.05% 2.32% 0.61% 2.93%




I know this is hard to make out -but it's going to be very close between Bacik and Mckenna as to who goes out at the last point there.
If Mckenna goes out would she transfer well enough to Bacik, or vice versa, to catch Mary L? I doubt it..
Call it the same as victor..tentatively

Villain

Anyone got anywhere online we can see the results comming through???

John R

Originally posted by irish1
Anyone got anywhere online we can see the results comming through???

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections2004/

jd

Chris Andrews didn't win a seat in the Locals.
Fianna Fail will have to think very carefully regarding who they put up in the Bye-election. (my understanding is there will have to be one, as Ryan is off to Europe and no Dual Mandate)

Jd