Can Sinn Fein make the leap from the outside to the inside.

Dub13

Its easy to lash the so called established Partys from the so called outside,now that they are more or less on the inside it looks like they could one day be in Government well at least part of one.

The question I have is can they move from the so called protest vote and start keeping these new voters.Its easy to say things like we dont agree with bin tax etc etc and more money for the out of work...but were do you find the cash for things like this.So can they move from saying they would do X or Y to getting it done.Its a big step can they make it....?

sceptre

Originally posted by Dub13
but were do you find the cash for things like this.

Raise national taxes, fiddle around with the tax bands, create a formal system of local taxes, increase VAT, loads of other possibilities.

I'm not necessarily espousing any of these options, just pointing out that it isn't simply a question of asking "how're ye going to pay for it" and presenting that question as a fait accompli.

seamus

Save something dramatic, it will take quite a long time for Sinn Fein to build up such a Dail presence that they would be needed to form a coalition Government. At this point in time, no party would be willing to form a coalition with them, and rightly so. They're a political front for a terrorist militia, and until they renounce all links with, and support for, the IRA, forming a Government with them would be devastating to this country.

Mary Harney was unhappy today, claiming that people were crazy voting for Sinn Fein because they were the only party with their own "private army". Now I laughed, and thought, "Now, c'mon Mary", that she was being a tad paranoid and melodramatic. Now that I've thought about it further, I can understand her sentiment. It's only small hop from "Political party with private militia and considerable support" to "Civil War", even if it takes 30 or 40 years for Sinn Fein to build up that kind of support.

My 2c.

Dub13

Originally posted by seamus
Save something dramatic, it will take quite a long time for Sinn Fein to build up such a Dail presence that they would be needed to form a coalition Government. At this point in time, no party would be willing to form a coalition with them, and rightly so.


If they get 10 TDs at the next election they will have the balance,and this could happen.

Victor

Ah, but "Can FF make the leap from the outside to the inside"?

Personally, yes, I would like SF to make that leap, prove it through hard work and stay inside. While it's hard to just forgive and forget, we need to get on with life.

Dub13

I also hope they can do it....we need a real Left Wing party in this country.

Dub13

....

chewy

vincent brown kept on saying the other night that sf would be in government in about 10 years... and that it would be with ff

ff are the obvious partners.... and for all there bashing them now they be delighted to be in governmetn with em afaik

thing is sf are left wing but they are nationalist socialist so they are slighlty different....

asfar as i understnd that means for the working class but only for our (irish) working class

sceptre

Originally posted by chewy
thing is sf are left wing but they are nationalist socialist so they are slighlty different

Careful now chewy:D

Call them "nationalists" and "socialists" if you fel like it, make reference to how important it is that their R in repubil-lican is big and yours is small, knock them as marxists, murderers, cat stranglers, mouse eaters, ask pertinent questions about Sean MacStiofan, be curious about Gerry's brothers involvement with the ri-ra and what kind of conversations they had over the breakfast table, ask about the baseball bats, find out about Martin's dealings in Derry, investigate the spider-baby, ramble on about green diesel, say the loyalist murals look nicer (they're certainly kept better), poke fun at Maskey's attitudes towards flags, ask when the next split is coming as it'll be overdue in about three years, tell Mary-Lou she needs to open her mouth wider, ask if Gerry is thinking of a Presidential run any time soon, make jokes about what colour you get if you mix green and orange paint, ask if Bairbre prefers custard creams over jersey creams or orange puffs or even make funnies about where Proinsias de Rossa learned Irish before he was a schticky. Don't call them "nationalist socialist" though. That's asking for trouble:p.

Dub13

On paper a Labour SF goverment looks like it could happen,but they would need a few Independents and/or the Greens....it would be a strange Goverment nott sure if it would work.

Raskolnikov

Originally posted by sceptre
about where Proinsias de Rossa learned Irish before he was a schticky.

Heh. People seem to forget that there have already been many Republicans who've made the transition. If Fianna Fail continue to lose votes to Sinn Féin then they will swallow their pride and go into coalition with them.

gaelic cowboy

If I was PJ Mara and I was looking to save FF bacon for the ineviable election.first get a high profile spat between Cowen and Bertie as soon as possible. Second I would shaft Bertie and install Cowen this give's FF a rural leader which means rural voters can feel they will be listened too. Plenty of rural issues confronted by cowen would affect SF in rural aresa. Third with no carismatic leader in Dublin how do we counteract SF IN Dublin easy by raising the profile of labour and Socialist workers party in Dublin. These parties all sup from the same dish as SF in Dublin voter wise by dividing ther vote they cant hope too influence goverment formation and must go along with FF or FG.

Morpheus

Why is a SF "Defence Policy" non-existant?

Maybe because they dont recognise the "Free State Army" as the official legal armed forces in Ireland? Unfortunately this is a pre-requisite for sitting in government.

Until the resolve THIS pertinent issue, get stuck into the decomission problem and step AWAY from the IRA's army council, they will most certainly NOT do themselves any favors.

They wont get my vote anytime soon. They gave me retarded arguments about Defence issues when they called to my door, hopefully they wont darken it again anytime soon.

I took pleasure in numbering every single candidate just so i could (happily i might add) give the Spin Feiners my very very last vote to ensure no transfers for them.

Mighty_Mouse

Imagine were here discussing the possibilities of SF in government in Ireland!!!
It wouldnt take a whole lot of effort to find 1-2year old threads stating that SF will never never be a mainstream party because Irish people will never vote for them! As Norman Cook once remixed: "weve come a long way baby!"

BuffyBot

It's a big gap between possibility and reality. Very big.

I think the problem is that for the most part SF seem to be good at on the ground, grass roots politics. The main problem I can see is that they're main weakness are bigger, national/international issues and that is where they fall down, and will fall down in future.

uberwolf

The IRA are a terrorist organisation involved in punishment beatings, drugs running, bank robberies, organised crime, etc, etc. Sinn Féin are a political front for these people.

They get votes because people have a romantic image of freedom fighters - the reality is remarkably different. Had anyone actually paid any attention to ML McDonald in any of the televised debates they would have seen an extraordinaril weak candidate with no stomach for public debate and no capacity to justify her alignment with a terrorist organisation and no genuine policies to distinguish her from the gun toting thugs lurking in the background.

If they make the transition to a 'mainstream' party they will lose the glamour and romantic appeal which currently gains them votes and they'll be left with undeveloped and weak leftist arguments and could easily get lost between the socialists and labour.

Cumann na Phoblachta had ten Dail seats in the sixties and had dissappeared with in ten years. They are the closest parallel to modern day sinn fein excluding the links to a private army.

So they'll either make the transition and get lost, or not make it and continue to be excluded.

Meanwhile I believe its shameful and emabarassing that we have elected representatives of criminal gangs to power - the two concepts of democracy and anarchaic terrorists are mutually exclusive.

PH01

As a member of the Effeffers, I can say that we have nothing in common with the Shinners. Forming a Gov with them would be doomed to failure in a couple of weeks.

Mighty_Mouse

It's a big gap between possibility and reality. Very big.

Buffbot, its expected but unrealistic to say that Sinn Fein are not reality! People will continue to say that Sinn Fein are a protest vote, that they are limited by little experience in running a country, that they will fade away once FF adress the problems in services, that as a party they need to exist in the dail for 15 years before being considered for partnership etc etc.

I can guarantee that Sinn Fein are not leaving the political scene in Ireland any time soon and I dont expect their rapid growth to stagnate anytime soon.

If they make the transition to a 'mainstream' party they will lose the glamour and romantic appeal which currently gains them votes and they'll be left with undeveloped and weak leftist arguments and could easily get lost between the socialists and labour.

This won't happen. IMO. I really think people are not looking at the reality of the situation or clinging to some theory that SF growth in Irish politics is not happening..

By the way I completely accept that Sinn Fein have a lot of growth to make within the party itself. I don't see why Sinn Feins current policies will get lost "once they become mainstream" though. Is there some sort of reality where a socialist party has to adopt its policies in order to "deal with" economic arguments? This assumption is based on the argument that socialists ideals cannot work in the running of a country.

The health of an economy is essential to the development of any country but its only a means to providing the country its needs. FF have been so economically focused to the degree they have not addressed the needs of the country. Whats to say that a party cannot not be economically focused in order to adress the needs of a country?

Morpheus

As long as they dont come clean about their allegiance to the elected lawful defence forces of this country, their stance on dis-armament and renouncing the IRA, then "going nowhere" - is exactly what theyll do.

BuffyBot

Buffbot, its expected but unrealistic to say that Sinn Fein are not reality!

Eh?

I can guarantee that Sinn Fein are going nowhere and I dont expect their rapid growth to stagnate anytime soon.

Well here I disagree. I certainly can't see a huge "road to damascus" conversion on behalf of the Irish people. Currently, they are sweeping up the votes of the disenfranchised along with their traditional support base, but there will come a point where that stops, and the campaign to win the hearts and minds of the larger segment of the population begins. That's where some of their policies will need re-thinking to win over the support of that portion of society.

Mighty_Mouse

Eh?

Sorry. I have severly fried brains today!!! The point is that you still insist that there is a big gap between possibility and reality in terms of Sinn Feins growth and possible part in a future government. I think the gap is very small.

Well here I disagree. I certainly can't see a huge "road to damascus" conversion on behalf of the Irish people.

Clearly people are quite will to vote Sinn Fein

Currently, they are sweeping up the votes of the disenfranchised along with their traditional support base, but there will come a point where that stops,

I really dont see a ceiling on the disenfranchised vote to be honest. Especially in an Irish economy where the gap between the rich and poor is ever-increasing. Also I dont consider Sinn Fein vote to be limited to the disenfranchised. Certainly I know several very un-disenfranchised young and old new Sinn Fein voters.

That's where some of their policies will need re-thinking to win over the support of that portion of society.

Again I'm not sure about this need to change policy. At the end of the day Sinn Fein will never be going for a significant porportion of say the PD vote. The well off will not be inclined to vote away their huge wealth breaks unless motivated by social reform.

The Rooster

I think a good proportion of SF voters oi these elections have no real clue what SF actually stands for, apart from the obvious United Ireland and telling people what they want to hear.

They are a very polished organisation who are absolutely able to garner the highest vote possible, but (because of the peace process) they've had a very easy ride from the other parties to date. That changes now.

Sinn Fein are committed to significantly higher taxes and higher social welfare. That equals higher unemployment, and that message among others, will surely be out by the General Election and hopefully the rise of SF will be halted.

uberwolf

A party cannot be mainstream until it can make credible statements re: justice - gardai, prison service, etc, foreign policy, amongst others.

Any future variant of SF would have to shift fundamentally from their current position to achieve this and they would remove a core of their vote in doing so.

Consequently SF cannot ever achieve mainstream status in their current guise.

I also believe (with no evidence other than my own supposition) that the majority of SF voters are voting for some romantic ideal and/or on the strength of their grass roots. Grass roots doesn't translate to national level - its a fundamentally different proposition. And SF can make populist statements safe in the knowledge that they'll not be called upon to deliver upon them any time soon.

They will continue to throw rocks from outside the greenhouse for a long time yet...

Mighty_Mouse

Sinn Fein are committed to significantly higher taxes and higher social welfare.

in certain areas

That equals higher unemployment

How?An tax regime with an increased focus on equality and increase support for unmarried mothers, housing, drug abusers, etc = increased unemployment? Are you saying that support the lower levels of society results in less jobs available?

A party cannot be mainstream until it can make credible statements re: justice - gardai, prison service, etc, foreign policy, amongst others.

They have: www.sinnfein.ie

Any future variant of SF would have to shift fundamentally from their current position to achieve this

What do you mean? How does having policies in the area of say foreign policy have to result in alienating the SF electorate?

Consequently SF cannot ever achieve mainstream status in their current guise.

again, can you expand?

that the majority of SF voters are voting for some romantic ideal

I disagree

Grass roots doesn't translate to national level - its a fundamentally different proposition.

Why? Will people not vote for the party which supports them at a local level throught the country on a national level in a national election?

And SF can make populist statements safe in the knowledge that they'll not be called upon to deliver upon them any time soon

I dont think so. SF are positioning for a shot at a coalition governement in the next couple of elections

They will continue to throw rocks from outside the greenhouse for a long time yet...

Out of curiosity whats a "long time". 5/10/15 years. Whatever look at the record of Sinn Fein since the ceasefire and look at the consistent statements from all quaters saying that they will not grow

seamus

I agree with most of what uberwolf has to say.

Sinn Fein are socialist. Dreamers. The working class will always vote socialist because their manifesto consists of taxing the rich and increasing the dole.
I hate going down the road of generalising and saying that working class also tend to be "Yeah, up de RA, get dem fookin Brits ou'!", but they do.

Sinn Fein are sitting on an unstable electorate. Fair play to them for getting them out to vote in the first place. That shows that they have what it takes to inspire and motivate at least.

uberwolf

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse
They have: www.sinnfein.ie What do you mean?

How can a Sinn Fein minister for Justice have overall charge of prisons and prisoner release for example? Could you honestly have confidence in a Minister who had been in prison for terrorist acts or who actively condoned their acts of barbarity? would that be a conflict of interest (on their part)? Or who represented drug runners - Gardai are adamant that the IRA are a major drug gang amongst other exploits.

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse

How does having policies in the area of say foreign policy have to result in alienating the SF electorate? again, can you expand?

Having policies has no impact as such, I'm sure most who voted have no idea what Sin Fein policies are, I was watching ML McDonald for example who at an anti war rally was asked how she could be anti war whilst a member of Sinn Fein - the political arm of a terrorist group - and she had no answer.

But for them to ever be in a position to have any sway with their policies they would have to move so far from their current position as the voice box of criminals that they would be unrecognisable from their origins. This would mean they would be just another leftie group. And as a leftie group I believe that their policies are immature and undeveloped. That is entirely reasonable when you consider their primary focus has been on the North and 32 counties etc but as a political force and government member would be entirely inadequate.

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse

I disagree Why? Will people not vote for the party which supports them at a local level throught the country on a national level in a national election?

as above their abilities at local level to drum up support has been short term and I gather from anacdotes has been based at least in part on false and unkept promises. -whether that burns out over a longer term is to be seen.

Also sound local politics has little to do with mature and pragmatic policies implementable on a national scale

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse

I dont think so. SF are positioning for a shot at a coalition governement in the next couple of elections

couple of elections? 3/4 elections? thats as much as twenty years! and this generation of political leaders have, I believe, stated that they would not consider a coalition with the representatives of terrorists. Entirely reasonable as terrorists and democracy are incompatible.

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse

Out of curiosity whats a "long time". 5/10/15 years.

a day is a long time in politics to coin the phrase i have no answer to that though in seriousness, although I'd imagine at least the current generation of political leaders...

Originally posted by Mighty_Mouse
Whatever look at the record of Sinn Fein since the ceasefire and look at the consistent statements from all quaters saying that they will not grow

Growth and mainstream are different I believe.

Victor

Originally posted by uberwolf
How can a Sinn Fein minister for Justice have overall charge of prisons and prisoner release for example? Could you honestly have confidence in a Minister who had been in prison for terrorist acts or who actively condoned their acts of barbarity? would that be a conflict of interest (on their part)? Or who represented drug runners - Gardai are adamant that the IRA are a major drug gang amongst other exploits.

It is a conflict of interest for a minister to deal in their official capacity with anyone they have personal (relevant) knowledge of, e.g. Michael McDowell absented himself and delegated parole powers to another minister in a case where he had been junior counsel (and potentially privy to confidential information) to a murder defendent twenty years previously.

Boston

Originally posted by uberwolf
I also believe (with no evidence other than my own supposition) that the majority of SF voters are voting for some romantic ideal and/or on the strength of their grass roots. Grass roots doesn't translate to national level - its a fundamentally different proposition.

very convenient that isn't it. As long at thats why they are getting elected its all grand. Face that fact that more and more non-republicans are voting sinn fein. Sinn Fein never once campaigned for these elections on the Republican ballet, they campaigned on local issues, law,community services, service charges ect. why is it so hard for you people to grap this concept that the only ones banging on about private armies are the mainstream parties. The rest of us on the ground really wouldn't care less.

hate going down the road of generalising and saying that working class also tend to be "Yeah, up de RA, get dem fookin Brits ou'!", but they do.

Sure they do.

I also find the whole civil war cries at the start of the thread abite OTT.

mike65

FF have lost many of the urban non-Working class to SF thats for sure...which is good news for FG and others but FG in particular. However they'll not get beyond being a protest rump, albeit a large one unless they can convince the majority that they have competence beyond running a slick PR machine.

They've had a free run so far but no longer, they'll have to start enunciating policy and postion on a vast range of issues some of which are quite counter to the orthidoxy of most Irish ppl. That said they don't mention
nationalising the banks much these days.

Just visited the SF website and its good to see how constitutional politics is rubbing off...



Mike.

Boston

Originally posted by mike65
FF have lost many of the urban non-Working class to SF thats for sure...which is good news for FG and others but FG in particular. However they'll not get beyond being a protest rump, albeit a large one unless they can convince the majority that they have competence beyond running a slick PR machine.

They've had a free run so far but no longer, they'll have to start enunciating policy and postion on a vast range of issues some of which are quite counter to the orthidoxy of most Irish ppl. That said they don't mention
nationalising the banks much these days.

Just visited the SF website and its good to see how constitutional politics is rubbing off...



Mike.

Sinn Fein politics in the south seems very different to that in the north. I constantly hear people calling them left wing. Maybe that's the official line, but how can a left wing party steal so many vote from a ring wing party like FF. I mean on the ground they seem extremely right wing, maybe on certain social policy issues they are left, but Personally I'd put them right of Labor and way right of the socialists.

sceptre

Originally posted by uberwolf
a day is a long time in politics to coin the phrase

It was a week when Harold Wilson said it:)

(though there was no internet or 24-hour news in 1964 so "a day" might be closer to the truth than it once was)