What would you do?

Lafortezza

Just reading a thread on the Two plus Two forums got me thinking.

You are in the BB holding AK offsuit. Everyone folds to the SB who is a very tight player who wouldn't try to bluff that often. With blinds at 200-400 he raises it to 3000.
What do you do? Have a think and decide before you read my opinion in the spoiler.

My thoughts:

My first thought would be to reraise. But what happens if you don't get a flop you like and the SB comes out betting the flop?
If you flat call and see the flop and no Ace or King appears, how many bets do you call in the hope that your unimproved AK would win.
Especially if the SB is a tight player, if he bets the flop you have to put him on a pair of some kind. If he has something like KQs or AJ then you are ahead but there's no way to know this.

If the flop came 972 rainbow and the SB goes all-in you have to drop the AK. Basically if the flop comes with out an Ace or a King and the SB bets big you have to drop it. Imho anyway.

But if the flop comes something like K82 rainbow. What then? You have top pair, best kicker, you're almost guaranteed to be ahead, barring the SB having bullets.
So if he checks to you (likely to happen: tight player possibly missed the flop or his smaller pair is scared by the overcard K) and you bet out, he will probably fold.

So if you hit your hand you won't make any value (probably). If you miss your hand you aren't sure where you stand, you'll most likely have to fold to any bet by the SB.

If you rewind to the pre-flop stage? What should you have done with your AK heads-up facing a raise from the SB (a tight uncomplicated player usually).
Fold AK preflop? :eek: Its a drawing hand, not a made hand. There's not much value to be won if you *do* flop an Ace or King. You're possibly up against a pair. If you miss your flop you should fold to any bet.
You could always re-raise all-in before the flop, the SB could be convinced you have a bigger pair and fold, but if he calls you're still a marginal dog to a pair of 2's

Thoughts?

Iago

I haven't read the spoiler but...

I think I'd probably just call, it would give me a chance to see what's on the flop and 1,000 isn't that high considering 400 is the BB anyway.

If you hit on the flop he will have to bet first and you can either slow play or go over the top giving you the advantage. If you don't hit on the flop then you can fold without having lost too much more than you normally would.

Of course if I had a small stack I'ld probably go all-in and try to double through, no doubt leading to me being knocked out and cursing my impatience!!

careca

I would agree with Iago. I would call and if no ace or king hit the flop I would fold if bet into. You would have to put the SB on a pair of some sort. If an ace or king did hit and he also happened to hit a set you would be in big trouble however.

Lafortezza

Originally posted by Iago
I think I'd probably just call, it would give me a chance to see what's on the flop and 1,000 isn't that high considering 400 is the BB anyway.

just edited my first post to make it a little more expensive to see the flop

Originally posted by Iago
Of course if I had a small stack I'ld probably go all-in and try to double through

Yeah only thing yo do with a small stack you be all-in.

Iago

The only thing with the 3,000 is that it becomes too expensive for the SB.

If he is normally a tight player and everybody else folded, then he should just call or put in a small raise if he has a high pair (that's where the 1,000 made sense, maybe he has QQ or JJ and wants the BB to play)

when you increase it to 3,000 it looks like he's stealing. Probably holding A with a really low kicker or 22 33 44 maybe. He has a hand, but he doesn't want to risk being outdrawn on the flop so decides to try and take the BB before it..

I think it works better with the 1,000 although it is quite close to the BB

Hectorjelly

I havent read the spoiler yet either. My first point is that without a context this question is pretty pointless. I mean Tournament Strategy is different to ring game strategy, also what are both of your stacks? Just calling is pretty stupid if either one of you is pretty short stacked.

If its a tournament and your not about to get blinded out I'd say dump it. If he is really tight, then that raise should tell you that he has a very strong hand. At best your aiming for coinflip, if he has JJ or QQ. At worst your a big dog. Since he's is a tight player, and both your stacks are deep enough, you could try a reraise and try and get him to drop his hand. A good player will drop AQ, JJ, or lower. A really good player will drop QQ.

Imo calling is the worst option here. Raise of Fold.

Marq

depends on how big your stack is, and just as important is how big his stack is. If he has very few chips left I probably wouldn't go all in, as if he isn't bluffing he's liable to call all-in and at best you're probably going to be 50-50. Instead call, and if you hit, bet it, and if you don't hit, but you're also sure that he didn't hit, then you have the chance to bluff. Less likely for someone to commit the rest of their chips post-flop when they haven't hit and think they're behind, than it is before the flop when they are well aware that anything can happen and a medium to big pair looks a lot better.

DeVore

lets presume your stack has no bearing on it. For example as we have seen its worth making a last stand on this hand with a small stack...

Ok, we can presume the tight player has a pair. Doubtful that he has a very high pair or he wouldnt raise nearly so much so he cant have AA or KK <-- this is a presumption or else it all gets very icky and mathsy!

You are almost certainly going to need better then 48:52 pot odds given that you are slightly behind currently. out of 100 hands you will win 48 of them... a virtual coin toss and pretty close to 1:1 odds (in fact its 1:1.08)

There is 3400 in the pot at the moment and you are being asked for 2600.
34:36 or 1: 1.31


ask yourself this, you would bet on a 1 in 5 shot if you stood to win 20 euro for every euro wagered? Too right you would!

Would you bet 11 euro to win 13 euro on a coin toss? I would. This is the same bet.

So my answer is you call.
(now to see what the spoiler says)...


DeV.

Hectorjelly

Reading your comments I have two points, yes AK is a drawing hand. But AK's power lies more in its fearlessness. With AK you have a good chance of beating any pair, including k's. With AK you always want to be getting all of your chips into the pot before your opponent, as this adds folding equity to the value of AK. AK is a small dog to 22, but only a very poor player will call a substantial all in with a low pair. How you manage to get your chips in first depends on the circumstances, and how good a player you are.

Calling with AK in general is poor play, as you are not using AK's strength, or helping its weakness, ie if you have to show the best hand to win it really wants to see all 5 cards. The only time when calling with AK is correct (IMO) is when you have a good read that your opponent has either AJ or AQ, and you want to win his entire stack.

Heres a quick example. A tournament in its latter stages, and Im on the button with AQ. A few limpers and I reraise to T10,000. You are on the BB with AK. You call. The flop comes up 492 rainbow. You check (or bet). I reraise all in. What do you do now?

The last thing to note is that if you have AK, you should be a lot less worried about A's or K's than if you hold Q's. On a personal note I prefer AK to Q's, as I often fold q's but I very rarely fold AK.


Daragh

Obscure

In the position the only question I'd ask is whether or not he has AA or KK. If I didnt think he(or she) had then i'd go all-in. If he sees the raise and has a lower pair then your 50-50 to win. If he was bluffing then he'll fold and you take the money. If he has two cards lower than yours then hopefully your cards will hold up and win again. Also, your all-in raise could scare off good hands. So your chances of winning are actually better than 50-50.

(this is assuming that two over-cards is 50-50 against a lower pair pre-flop, which i sure enough is true)

DeVore

This is where poker analysis collapses. You cant argue what a mythical tight, capable player is going to do if you reraise or if you miss the flop but bet out on the Q-high flop anyway, it doesnt give you a definitive answer for the situation.

If you have (lets say) 20K stack and you reraise all in, you are making the pot odds
1:1 if he calls (ie: you'll have as much cash in there as he will). This makes it a poor call since you are 4% behind.

However, suppose you know that this guy will fold 9 times out of 10 to a really big reraise. Well now you should make the bet since, out of 100 times you play the hand, you'll be picking up 3000 profit 90 times if he folds to you. If he plays, then you'll be winning 20,000 chips 4.8 times you DO play and win, while losing 20,000 chips 5.2 times, when you DO play and lose.

Total profit: 4.8x20,000 + 90 x 3000 = 366,000
Total Loss: 5.2x20,000 = 104,000

Outcome: BIG PROFIT, YOU SHOULD MAKE THIS BET!!

Now imagine a case where the other player only folds 1 time in 10.
Given the same 100 deals, you would play out 90 of them and win the hand 10 times when he folds. 48% of 90 hands, you'll win. 52% of 90 hands you'll lose....

Total Profit: .48 x 90 x 20,000 + 10 x 3,000 = 894000
Total Loss: .52 x 90 x 20,000 = 936000

Outcome: LOSS... YOU SHOULDNT TAKE THIS BET!


Hence the outcome is very dependant on whether your opponent is likely to call or not! Can we have parameters for his call-probaility expressed as a function of the amount of the reraise? There would be an optimal point where you might find a phase-shift in his likelyhood to call and you would be best reraising for just a little more then that amount to put as little into the pot while buying the greatest chance of getting him to fold!

No, I didnt think we'd get that sort of detail and so the question is meaningless beyond "Do you play or not".

Personally I'll play and bet big on any flop with a J or higher on it.

DeV.

Hectorjelly

Another point to make is that depending on the blinds and your stack size, you might not need to play this hand. There are several players in the merrion who will only raise pre-flop with AA, KK or QQ, if the player is this tight then just fold and wait for a better hand.

Lafortezza

interesting comments from everybody.
I suppose my Q boils down to whether or not you'd consider folding AKo in a headsup situation, when you think there's a chance you might be facing a pair. As people mentioned it depends on stacks, your read of the SB etc.

Interesting though that you might consider folding a so-called 'premium hand' against only 1 other player.

karlh

In the absence of Spiritus, and if we can presume that the SB has a lower pair, let's say JJ.....


'This situation comes up all the time in holdem, AK against an underpair...a coin toss.....psychology goes out the windw......."

I'd reraise all in btw.

Lafortezza

Originally posted by karlh2001
In the absence of Spiritus, and if we can presume that the SB has a lower pair, let's say JJ.....


'This situation comes up all the time in holdem, AK against an underpair...a coin toss.....psychology goes out the windw......."

I'd reraise all in btw.

It is a classic hold'em situation. Even if you're behind you have to think of the value...

cormie

The correct answer will never be found in text. Only in the player himself.

What I'd do is think about it for about 20 seconds and since your beside him/her, in this case its easy peasy, you just get your index and middle finger ready and go for the pulse!!! get the ****** on the neck!!!!!!!!!!!!! You have to get a reading quickly as his/her pulse will be likely to increase with the shock.

Seriously though, you'd need to study him/her to be able to make the right choice.

bohsman

2 choices raise all in or fold, the sb is going to go all in off the flop no matter what so even if you hit your flop youll start worrying about aa and kk

cormie seem to remember you throwing in ak suited on one of your first nights in the fitz still cant understand why

mewso

O.k. I know we are assuming he has a pair but I just wanted to point out that just about the only time a tight player might bluff is in this case when he's 1 on 1 against the BB.
If I have a large stack then I call, possibly fold if I have a good chance of making the money etc. and don't have to put my chips at risk.
If I have a low stack I'm all-in.

cormie

I was behind pre flop, first guy goes all in, another calls, it would bring me all in. If one of them has pair (which they did) and the other may be calling with AJ AQ AK A10 A9 chances of me hitting an A or less so I'm even more of an underdog against the pair than I already would be if it was heads up. A king came on the board, I would have won, but it was safe play considering it was a freezeout (for me) in the freeroll. hehe.