Will there be a conflict between Iran and the USA/Israel?

adjodlo

Just wondering what other people's opinions on this would be. I know that for the last few months both sides have been talking the talk and both Iran and Israel have talked openly about attacking the other country.

We know that soon enough somebody will have to back down. Either Iran will hault it's nuclear program, or the US/Israel will just accept it. However I don't see either of these scenarios happening at all.

Iran has even gone so far as to threaten a pre-emptive strike against American forces in order to stop them from attacking the country.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2004-08/21/content_1847243.htm


So do you think that there will be another middle eastern war? Despite the way they are talking, all sides know that it would be a messy one and would not be over quickly, like the recent Iraq war.

mr_angry

I think the US have enough on their plate at the moment without getting involved in another messy war / reconstruction. I'd never rule out anything to do with the mad Israelis though. With a bit of luck, some rational discussion and diplomacy by the rest of the world will keep both sides in check.

Nuttzz

Not while the yanks are tied up in Iraq, but when they get the place sorted Iran isnt that far away, Israel would have to attack through Jordan and Iraq to get to Iran, cant see them do that either.

I cant see Iran attacking either, the yanks would just carpet bomb their forces and stop the attack in its tracks

Stabshauptmann

I remember around the start of the Iraq war ppl were guessing will Seria be next and there were reports about helping terrorists etc and lots of ppl were predicting a war there. I really think this will all blow over, N Korea and Iran will enter some sort of non-proliferation threaty brokered by the UN or some such but go on developing nukes anyway and then maybe in another decade a third bush will come to power and flip a coin. Who knows? I dont expect a war soon, but Im not a betting man.

flogen

I think a war with Iran would be a bit too costly/damaging for America.
Iran actually has the potential to put up a good fight against US forces, and also has (or is close to having) nuclear weapons and other "WMD". Just like N.K.

Israel is probably too smart to attack too, they wouldn't have US support, and certainly not international support, they would also have trouble getting forces to Iran; despite the US happy government there, the people of Iraq would certainly not allow Israeli armies onto their land, even if it is to tackle their traditional enemy to the east.
I suspect US tactics will be mainly covert, and somewhat diplomatic. They wont back down, but they will do their best to sabotage any Nuclear weapons in Iran without a war.

flogen

Typedef

The Israelis are quite capable, and to be honest quite likely to launch an airstrike against Iranian nuclear targets, before those targets can produce materials which could be used to make an atom bomb.

This is 'exactly' what the Israelis did to Iraq in the 1980s.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iraq/facility/osiraq.htm

Osiraq / Tammuz I
33°12'30"N 44°31'30"E

Iraq established its nuclear program in the late 1960s when it acquired its first nuclear facilites. Later, in the 1970s, Iraq was unsuccessful in negotiations with France to purchase a plutonium production reactor similar to the one used in France's nuclear weapons program. In addition to the reactor, Iraq also wanted to purchase the reporcessing plant needed to recover the plutonium produced in the reactor. Even through these requests were denied, France agreed to build a research reactor along with associated laboratories. Iraq built the Osiraq 40 megawatt light-water nuclear reactor at the Al Tuwaitha Nuclear Center near Baghdad with French assistance. Approximately 27.5 pounds of 93% U-235 was supplied to Iraq by France for use in the Osiraq research reactor.

The reactor was a type of French reactor named after Osiris, the Egyptian God of the dead. The French renamed the one being built in Iraq, "Osiraq" to blend the name Osiris with that of the recipient state, Iraq. French orthography then made it "Osirak." Iraq called the reactor "Tammuz," after the month in the Arabic calendar when the Ba'th party came to power in a 1968 coup.

Iraq began to expand its nuclear sector in the 1970's, but made little progress in the early 1980's, when most of its energy and attention were focused on the war against Iran. In September 1980, at the onset of the Iran-Iraq War, the Israeli Chief of Army Intelligence urged the Iranians to bomb Osiraq. On 30 September 1980 a a pair of Iranian Phantom jets, part of a larger group of aircraft attacking a conventional electric power plant near Baghdad, also bombed the Osiraq reactor. Minor damage to the reactor was reported. No further Iranian air attacks against Iraqi nuclear facilities were identified during the rest of the seven-year war.

When Israeli intelligence confirmed Iraq's intention of producing weapons at Osiraq, the Israeli government decided to attack. According to some estimates, Iraq in 1981 was still as much as five to ten years away from the ability to build a nuclear weapon. Others estimated at that time that Iraq might get its first such weapon within a year or two. Prime Minister Menachem Begin felt military action was the only remedy. Begin feared that his party would lose the next election, and he feared that the opposition party would not preempt prior to the production of the first Iraqi nuclear bomb.

The raid would have to occur before its first fuel was to be loaded, before the reactor went "hot" so as not to endanger the surrounding community. The target was distant: 1,100 km from Israel. Preparations included building target mock-ups and flying full scale dress-rehearsal missions. The aircrews were selected from the cream of the IAFs fighter corps. The IDF Chief-of-Staff, Lt. Gen. Rafael (Raful) Eitan, briefed the pilots personally. Displaying unusual emotion, he told them: "The alternative is our destruction".

At 15:55 on 07 June 1981, the first F-15 and F-16's roared off the runway from Etzion Air Force Base in the south. Israeli air force planes flew over Jordanian, Saudi, and Iraqi airspace After a tense but uneventful low-level navigation route, the fighters reached their target. They popped up at 17:35 and quickly identified the dome gleaming in the late afternoon sunlight. Iraqi defenses were caught by surprise and opened fire too late. In one minute and twenty seconds, the reactor lay in ruins.

And is quite likely what Israel would do to Iran if it felt threatened. No land invasion, just a quick decisive strike against Iran's primary Nuclear site.

http://aoreport.com/news100_iranstrike001.htm

Seaneh

Can't see anything happening myself, Jordan, Egypt and Syria wouldn't be very happy with Iran attacking Isreal, besides Iran don't really have the range.

The U.S. wouldn't be happy with the Islrealis if they attacked Iran because it makes thier posistion in Iraq a lot harder.

The U.S. wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to attack Iran right now, they are already relaying on Canadian and Australian forces in Afghanistan because of the choas in Iraq and they couldn't possible stretch thier forces any thinner on the ground, they would need to draft, which wouldn't be allowed to happen anyway.

Meh, I wouldn't be too worried about it, I'd be far more concerned by what's happening in The Sudan right now.

Typedef

While I agree that Israel would not want to provoke a war by way of a pre-emptive strike against Iran, it has to be said that if Iran looked like it was close to acquiring nuclear weapons, it is almost a given the Israelis would act.

Israel did it before for 'less', vis-a-vis Iraq's capability for nuclear weapons.

Flukey

Well hopefully we'll have a change of government in the USA and just maybe that might make a difference.

Seaneh

Typedef wrote:

While I agree that Israel would not want to provoke a war by way of a pre-emptive strike against Iran, it has to be said that if Iran looked like it was close to acquiring nuclear weapons, it is almost a given the Israelis would act.

Israel did it before for 'less', vis-a-vis Iraq's capability for nuclear weapons.

oh, yeah, I agree totally, they are more than capable, the IAF is one of the best equipt and best trained military organisations in the world, and they probably already have the plans drawn up. Isreal is an amazingly organised nation as far a thier Military is concered, the 6 day war and thier destruction of the Iraqi reactor are perfect examples of thier efficiency.

Seaneh

Flukey wrote:

Well hopefully we'll have a change of government in the USA and just maybe that might make a difference.

TBH, I wouldn't bet on it.
John Kerry is an spineless moof.

sceptre

What's a moof?

Victor

It's highly unlikely to happen. Iraq was without new supllies for 13 years, is mostly flat open country and armed factions opposed the régime and is a huge headache. Iran is mountains, relatively united and has plenty of modern equipment.

http://aoreport.com/news100_iranstrike001.htm

We think it would be likely for the Arab world to unite behind Iran

What noobs, Iran isn't even an Arab country.

Seaneh

Erm, I picked it up in a game I used to play online, there was aplayer that called people he didnt like "moof" and it's stuck with me since, it's just a general "eejit" type of thing.

I realise G.W. Bush is also a "moof", but what is worse a total Idiot in office, or a total Idiot who can't make his mind up in office?

emertoff

I dont think the US would engage in any unilateral action and I could not see Blair supporting an attack on Iran, therefore I would say its not a possibility.
Besides, Iran would be a much tougher proposition to defeat militarily and Russia and China would probably take a dim view. Doubtless GWB would like another distraction but it will not happen.

Seaneh

Victor wrote:

It's highly unlikely to happen. Iraq was without new supllies for 13 years, is mostly flat open country and armed factions opposed the régime and is a huge headache. Iran is mountains, relatively united and has plenty of modern equipment.

http://aoreport.com/news100_iranstrike001.htmWhat noobs, Iran isn't even an Arab country.

It isn't an arab country but they are supported by The League of Arab States, are they not?

Typedef

Seaneh wrote:

oh, yeah, I agree totally, they are more than capable, the IAF is one of the best equipt and best trained military organisations in the world, and they probably already have the plans drawn up. Isreal is an amazingly organised nation as far a thier Military is concered, the 6 day war and thier destruction of the Iraqi reactor are perfect examples of thier efficiency.

Funny you should mention that.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=39506

World Daily Net wrote:

By Aaron Klein
© 2004 WorldNetDaily.com

Israel has conducted military exercises for a pre-emptive strike against several of Iran's nuclear power facilities and is ready to attack if Russia supplies Iran with rods for enriching uranium, Israeli officials told reporters.

An Israeli defense source in Tel Aviv told the London Sunday Times, which first published the story, that "Israel will on no account permit Iranian reactors – especially the one being built in Bushehr with Russian help – to go critical."

The source was also quoted as saying that any strike on Iran's reactors would probably be carried out by long-range F-15I jets, flying over Turkey, with simultaneous operations by commandos on the ground.

Russia is expected to deliver the enriching rods, currently being stored at a Russian port, late next year after a dispute over financial terms is resolved.

"If the worst comes to the worst and international efforts fail," the source said, "we are very confident we'll be able to demolish the ayatollah's nuclear aspirations in one go."

gaelic cowboy

Yeah go ahead and drop the big one on them and then watch the middle east erupt :rolleyes:

sceptre

Seaneh wrote:

Erm, I picked it up in a game I used to play online, there was aplayer that called people he didnt like "moof" and it's stuck with me since, it's just a general "eejit" type of thing.

Ah thanks. Might well have come from the getting booted from a server usage then. I've checked it on urbandictionary since and it seems to have the same usage among the yoof.

I realise G.W. Bush is also a "moof", but what is worse a total Idiot in office, or a total Idiot who can't make his mind up in office?

Depends what he makes up his mind to do really. Along with lots of other people, I doubt the Lesser Bush is pulling his own strings.

Seaneh

Haha, I knew I was right.

Seaneh

sceptre wrote:

Depends what he makes up his mind to do really. Along with lots of other people, I doubt the Lesser Bush is pulling his own strings.

I like the idea that 15-16 people behind bush are really in control, I'd rather have 16 people running the most powerful nation on earth than two fools relaying on "We're not the other guy" to get elected.

Typedef

I'd much more comfortable with the thought that Bush, singularly was in control, as opposed to 15 or 16 Machevellian puppeters.

See, he strikes me as a moral man. He probably believes all that bible thumping nonsense and therefore, he probably believed that Saddam had WMD and probably wouldn't have gone to war (as a moral man) without it.

It is precisely his allure to the public, straight talking, moral, perhaps stupid, but, therefore 'trusted' not to have the kind of machivellian depth required to 'spoof' bible thumping al-la Fianna Fail and it's pulpit politics.

Sadly, Mr Bush's ability to be led and his belief in the integrity of those who surround him, is what undermines any 'plus' one might seek to engender in him, as a fundamentally 'passionate' and 'morally' derived individual.

For a position like President, to 'acutally' wield power, one needs a snake, not an angel.

To quote a famous agent.

"Never send a human, to do a machine's job".

adjodlo

Sure none of the aformentioned countried would LIKE to go to war with each other, but you have to realise that a small country like Israel gets put in a very tough position if one of it's traditional enemies gets the bomb. It automatically takes away much of Israels nuclear advantage which basically means that no other country can attack it without facing destruction.

I would not be surprised at all if Israel blew the reactors, as Iran would be crazy to go after Israel with any type of WMDs due to Israels large nuclear arsenal.

Hobbes

If Bush makes a second term, I say he will go after Iran (The world be dammed). He's going to have to get the oil flowing from Iraq first though unless you want to see $60-70 a barrell.

Israel attacking Iran, very possible. What would the world do?

halkar

US won't go near Iran, after all they can't control a country of 20million never mind 70million of Iran and most are Shia hardcore Muslims.

Israel, regardless of their arsenal would be digging their own graves if they attack Iran, unlike Iraq, Iran probably will answer back. After all, even though we don't know what Israel's nuclear capability they will probably have to use all of it in order to put Iran down but it will only take one successful hit to Israel to cripple it or wipe out of map. Hit and miss, can they really risk that?

Even if they did decide to strike Iran's reactors, how will they do it? Regardless what media thinks Turkey will not open their air space for that. After all they weren't so helpful when US wanted to use for Iraq so I don't understand why anyone can possibly think that Turkey would open their air space for Israel to attack Iran especially considering the tension in relations between Turkey and Israel. Turkey is also improving their relations with Iran as it is a bordering country and I doubt they would risk that for Israel. So sorry Israel, you will just shut up and sit tight or invent some invisible airplanes that will carry your bombs to Iran as they will not be able to do this without violating airspace of other nations whom already in not good relations with them and cause more tension and chaos which I doubt it will be anything like their previous wars that they won.

Bottom line, nothing will happen, Iran will continue its nuclear program and we will just watch. If Israel can think that Iran is a threat to them if they continue their nuclear activity, Iran has a right to defend herself too against Israel's threat. It takes two to tango, if Israel wants Iran or any other nation to stop their nuclear activity they should also do the same.

Forget it, nothing will happen, time for beer

Typedef

How can nothing happen?

Iran has stated 'basically' that it intends to develop a nuclear capability.

Israel has stated that it will use military force if necessary to stop Iran doing that.

One side of the other has to back down for 'nothing' to happen.

While I abhore Israeli foreign policy, I don't really see how having another nuclear capable nation is in 'anybodys' interests, be those people friend or foe of Israel.

Israel isn't the issue, nuclear proliferation 'is'.

By all guestimates, Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and it has submarines capable of delivering those weapons if necessary.

I agree with Hobbes, if Bush gets a second term then 'some' sort of military conflict with Iran to shutdown Iranian nuclear weapons fabrication is quite likely. Indeed irrespective of US intentions to tackle Iran, I suspect the Israelis, given their foreign policy history to date, 'will' act, if Iran doesn't back down.

Redleslie2

Hobbes wrote:

Israel attacking Iran, very possible. What would the world do?

Well I don't know about the rest of the world, but I'd go straight to the pub like I did after 9/11 and stay there for about a week.

magick

i dont they would risk it, well the USA, i mean if oil price are high now, imagine what another war out in that region would do to the World markets!

adjodlo

Well the thing that a lot of people are overlooking here is the reality that if Iran was to be attacked it would be no war of "liberation" and there would be no need to "rebuild" it. Especially if it's Israel that's doing the attacking. They will basically attempt to wipe out as much of Irans military capabilities as possible and if they feel threatened enough they always have nukes to cause mass destruction which the iranians wont be able to retaliate against.

Azza

Well that Preist who ran out on the track at the British Grand Prix lasy year is prediciting a war between isreal britain and america versus the rest of the world (the american's win again) in the next few years. But I reckon Ireland should pre-empt this by invading america first.....we could take em by surprise.

And anyone this would of never happened had those comical italians won world war 2!

flogen

adjodlo wrote:

Well the thing that a lot of people are overlooking here is the reality that if Iran was to be attacked it would be no war of "liberation" and there would be no need to "rebuild" it. Especially if it's Israel that's doing the attacking. They will basically attempt to wipe out as much of Irans military capabilities as possible and if they feel threatened enough they always have nukes to cause mass destruction which the iranians wont be able to retaliate against.

if Israel were to attack, I don't think they would use Nukes. I imagine, like most countries, having nuclear weapons is there to discourage others. Israel would use them if Iran moved into their land, but not vice versa (a backs against the wall situation).
Any attack by Israel would just alienate them more, and maybe even force the US to step back from blind support (for their own sake). Israel has every possibility of doing it, but I think it would be a very bad decision to make.

flogen