Guesstimating the Grand Final qualifing points...

DeVore

Right, we're half way through the BSOP and we have a decent amount of data to project forwards from.
Such a projection is difficult because its non-linear but some reasonable finger-in-the-air guesstimates can be made on the basis of current info.

We have 30 players nominally, 19 have points now. Thats significant because it indicates the breadth of spread of points. This can be accounted by the vagaries of "luck" (if there were no luck the top 9 out of 30 would be the the only ones with points).

If the last 4 finals were repeated in roughly the same way, the cut off point for the Grand Final would be 24 points. Thats not too inaccurate but I'd expect to see it come in a little less then that probably about 20 or so because the players who have not yet scored points may drain points away from the mid-upper end of the league (proportionally more then they have in the first half).

The fluctuations in the system (the non-linearity I mentioned before) is considerable. There are 4 scoring "events" left. Access to those events is controlled by equally variable heats. Example: Muso has been in almost every final but only scored 7, if he continues to make the final the odds are that he'll score big in one and that significantly changes things.

Not only do we have to consider the possible *future* anomalies but also past ones. Example: no offence to Karl H who's a damned solid player but I'll take bets that he doesnt score 31 again over the next 4 months!
Since past anomalies are unlikely to be repeated, prediction based on such data is open to flaw.

If I were a betting man... (hey, I *am* a betting man, cool)
I'd bet that the cut off point will be ~20 points.
so, I'd say Karl H, Krusty and Hyzepher are sitting relatively pretty but remember, since the prediction is based on them doing similarly to their previous record, they cant afford to slack off or the rest of the field could pip them at the post. Even Karl could fail to make it at the moment. The 9 players beneath him trail him by 126 points in total so with 240 up for grabs in the next 4 finals (60 points per final) he's no where near mathematically safe though I wouldnt be betting against him getting there!!

Current Standings:

KarlH	             31
Krusty_clown	23
Hyzepher	             21
Amp	             19
Kencleary	18
Waylander	18
Iago	             18
Whiteshadow	12
Mr Pudding	12
TrickyD	             12
Spiritus	             12
TwoShedsJackson	10
Lafortezza	  7
Musician	               7
Davey Devil	  6
Quozl	               5
DeVore	               4
Decker	               4
Samson	               1

DeV.

karlh

DeVore wrote:

no offence to Karl H who's a damned solid player but I'll take bets that he doesnt score 31 again over the next 4 months!

Cool, Ill bet €100 that I don't!!

one more final for each of the top 3 and we'll be ok. It'll be great fun though when the scramble amongst the pack begins in the last 2 months and we can see exactly how many points certain people need to get through. Should make the final tables a good laugh.

Do we have a tally on the grand final prize pool so far?

kencleary

Hmmmmmm I probably need two more decent final table finishes or one more damn good one.

The desperation thing should be worth watching. There are several good players on f*ck all points - DeVore, Dapper, Samson, Decker etc. Will they become more aggressive in their attempts to get through the heats? Will they panic when someone raises them all in? - Hah we could have a situation where at the last monthly table somebody might need to reach 3/4 points to qualify and the nasty people at that table could do a lot of bullying

Will they make the final? Anyone care to open a pool on this?

DeVore

Certainly there are names I would have expected to be up there (not my own before you ask!) and there are names there I wouldnt have expected but fair dues to them. I would say another final table appearance by you should secure your place. I'm fncked basically unless I can score an outright win and sneak 9th or 2 more finals and do well in both. Thats a tall order as this field isnt exactly freeroll trash!

I'll happily wager against me getting into the final... anyone want to take that bet?
Karl, thats not quite the bet I meant

DeV.

gerire

mmm i think the cut off point will be marginally higher than my current points total :P

Hyzepher

I think one of the key factors to making the final will be availablity - as we can all see trying to get available for the heats is a difficult task and we have all experienced people making the final and unable to attend.

Then there are those you make the final because others dont attend the heats

Hyzepher

Marq

I don't see it as a case of all being lost for those of us who have yet to qualify for an end of month table. I've played 2, [bubble both times], so I'm at something of a disadvantage to those that have played all four, but all that is required is qualifying for three and placing well twice. I can do it. I know I can!

Juan Pablo

If there is room in any of the heats give me a shout. I wouldnt mind getting invloved in all this BSOP action.

Iago

personally I think 18 will be enough

it had better be

karlh

Iago wrote:

personally I think 18 will be enough

it had better be

calling an all in with A2os, it would want to be......

Iago

true enough, but the circumstances warranted it....


[size=-24]not really but sometimes you get away with these things [/size]

Decker

Of course you have to show up to the final to get points, well at least more than 1. Incidentally, I can't believe you didn't manage to knock at least 1 player out before my stack was removed, tight &^%*s.

DeVore

and we even left you in for three levels rather then just two!
I made a serious effort to go out before you (as did Whiteshadow!)

DeV.

amp

I will ensure my mathmatical certainity this month. CKD

Iago

sorry to drag up an old thread but I think this probably needs revisiting...

DeV's bet of KarlH not getting another 31 points seems reasonable now, is it still available?

I think the cut-off point will be higher, probably around the 23-25 mark, based on current run-rates. I'm certainly not feeling comfortable on 26 and I think I need at least one more final appearance finishing 5th or higher to help me breath easier.

What does everyone else think?

DeVore

Your grasp of maths is as good as your poker play Iago!

The likelihood is that the entry requirements will actually drop.
I'll explain how that could be the case: Every point that Karl H takes now is a point taken out of the pool. He's definitely in now and whether he gets 41 or 84 points now is irrelevant... except that he's drawing points from OTHER players who therefore wont have as high a total.

In extremis which would you rather: Karl has 80 points and the rest have down to 20 or Karl has 40 points and the rest have down to 25...

I'll lay you 50 notes that barring some bizzarre outcome (like we find out that Karl H has hundreds of Aces up his sleeve), 26 points will easily see you into the Grand Final withpoints to spare.

Personally I want you Karl and Krusty to soak up as many first seconds and third as you can (except when I'm in the final, which shouldnt prove much of an obstacle) because I dont have to beat you, I just have to beat the guy who is coming in 9th. Though at this stage its like I have one chip and I'm under the gun!

DeV.

Iago

granted, but if you take 20 as the cut off point then you have 4 players already qualified,

17 players who with one win in any of the last three finals will hit 20 themselves.

out of these 12 need only finish 2nd once to hit that total

out of these 8 only need finish 3rd once to hit that total

So with 3 finals to go it's plausible to consider that 20 won't be enough.

Incidentally your heat this month has Karl_H (46), Krusty_Clown(25), Amp(19) and Waylander (18) involved out of which at most 3 can qualify for the final, meaning that at least one and possibly all of these will get no points this month, opening the field to players with less points currently.

I still think the cut off will be higher than 20 [size=-12]although for once I'll be glad if I'm wrong[/size]

DeVore

remember that I said it would be "~20". There will be a natural probability distribution of the *projected* cut off on either side of the *actual* cutoff when we find it out. What I'm simply saying is that the more Karl and Krusty win, the more likely it is that the cutofff will be lower then expected.

DeV.

karlh

I'll do my best to keep it as low for you guys as possible!

Iago

DeVore wrote:

remember that I said it would be "~20". There will be a natural probability distribution of the *projected* cut off on either side of the *actual* cutoff when we find it out. What I'm simply saying is that the more Karl and Krusty win, the more likely it is that the cutofff will be lower then expected.

DeV.

So it could be 23-25 then

point taken and agreed with, I'm still not comfortable on 26, but hopefully it'll either be enough or I'll get another final in.

and Karl, just wanted to say thanks for taking one for the team, very generous of you to agree to keep winning

bohsman

so is there any room for myself and juan pablo?

Iago

I'd say you're very welcome but Hyzepher will have to confirm, don't see why not though, although you've a lot of ground to make up in three months!!

bohsman

Im only four points behind Dev and if I could beat him in three months Id be happy enough

DeVore

God that would be both embarrassing and also quite possible.

DeV.

Krusty_Clown

This will of course further dilute the remaining points pool, pulling down the qualifying points requirement, making me a little more comfortable at my current ponts level, and increases the prize pool. Bring it on! More players!

I might actually have to start looking for the final, instead of just wandering around downstairs, waiting for my chips to get Ante'd away

Lafortezza

Krusty_Clown wrote:

I might actually have to start looking for the final, instead of just wandering around downstairs, waiting for my chips to get Ante'd away

What I find worrying personally is that even though I was able to find the table, I still needed to get a ruling from Hyzepher to actually beat your unplayed stack!

Krustys chips should have been removed after 2nd blind level instead of 3rd. I went out half way through the third level

henbane

lafortezza wrote:

What I find worrying personally is that even though I was able to find the table, I still needed to get a ruling from Hyzepher to actually beat your unplayed stack!

That's not worrying, it's embarrassing!

karlh

KQ. that is all.

Lafortezza

It wasn't even suited....