I for one welcome our new ant masters

mycroft

This week Labour and Finé Gael announced plans for a potential coalition at the next general election. The Greens have announced their interest.

Seeing as during previous Labour/Finé Gael coalitions we've experienced both the starts of the peace process, and the foundation of the celtic tiger what are peoples thoughts about seeing Enda Kenny as taoiseach.

pork99

It's good news. I tend to give my first preferences to FG and Labour in elections so that what I want to see happen.

I'd have my reservations about Enda Kenny's talents as a Taoiseach. He'd be a bit out of depth I fear. But jaysus look at what's there now!

Also if the Labour party can take a leaf out of the book of New Labour in Britain and drop the socialist baggage I'd be quite happy to see them in government.

Liberal001

I don't support Labour it's such a pity it's FG's only option for a partner because they can't make up the numbers, so a vote for FG is a vote for Labour.. and the baby bond (shudder)

For a start no one government created the Celtic tiger, it was a mix of circumstances and diffrent governments from the 1989-1992 then every govt since.

Remember there are major things to overcome to bring another Rainbow government can come in. They need to gain 25 seats! and overcome major policy diffrences on tax, neutrality and of course poor Enda will have to deal with a man who wanted to nationalise industry.

I cant wait to get them in, then they will shut up for about 3 years and people will realise they dont' have the answers to every problem.

Sleipnir

I still think Inda Kinny is too soft to be Taoiseach. Bit of a wet slap really.

daveirl

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mycroft

No you didn't. The start of the modern peace process started with the Downing Street Declarations which precedes the short lived Labour/Finé Gael coalition. The peace process started under the Labour/FF government

Hangs head in shame. Ooops.

da_deadman

I have my doubts about Enda Kenny, and Fine Gael as a party. Of course, if Bertie can be Taoiseach for so long, then I'm sure that Enda Kenny can do it too...

But I would like to see a Fine Gael/Labour coalition back in power. If for nothing else, I just want to see a change in the government. I dont like one party to be in power for too long, for fear of them getting stale. It's a pity that Labour aren't a bit bigger so that they could have the possibility of having the Taoiseach. I would have really liked for Dick Spring to be Taoiseach rather than Albert Reynolds or John Bruton. And to have 3 big parties, all of whom could provide a Taoiseach, would surely be better than just having 2 big parties.

gom

da_deadman wrote:

I have my doubts about Enda Kenny, and Fine Gael as a party. Of course, if Bertie can be Taoiseach for so long, then I'm sure that Enda Kenny can do it too...

But I would like to see a Fine Gael/Labour coalition back in power. If for nothing else, I just want to see a change in the government. I dont like one party to be in power for too long, for fear of them getting stale. It's a pity that Labour aren't a bit bigger so that they could have the possibility of having the Taoiseach. I would have really liked for Dick Spring to be Taoiseach rather than Albert Reynolds or John Bruton. And to have 3 big parties, all of whom could provide a Taoiseach, would surely be better than just having 2 big parties.

Now hang on a minute. At present FG has 31 seats(minus Bruton = 30). Labour has 20 seats. Thats only 10 less. Add the fact the greens would be in the coalition and I'm sure they would rather a Labour Taoiseach over a FG one.
If all these 3 parties made gains but retained the current proportional differences, i.e. 6:4:1... Then it is not entirely unlikely that if a coalition was to come to power FG would not have Taoiseach.
If Labour gained relatively more seats as it probably will in cities like Galway and Dublin we might very well see Pat Rabbitte as Taoiseach.
This would be a great change of fortune for Ireland and Social Democracy in general.

Seeing as SF is making sizable gains in the BMW regions and eating into FF votes and not Labour votes as originally beliefed I don't believe that FG can make up the ground it needs.
FF voters will transfer mainly to Independents. In cities FF swing votes transfer all over the place and can go to Labour, Greens, PDs but NEVER FG.
FG is no longer a farmers party, no longer a liberials party... IN many ways they stand for even less than FF. FF stands for wealth and success whether they create it or not is another issue but thats the message they give. FG is not an alt. of that. Its something undefined...

Labour could be wise here. Even if it is a minority party in a coalition it could still hold the rains of power, the seat of Taoiseach and maybe even without FG.
If the FF vote implodes like the FG vote did in 2002, then I can see SF and the PDs being the main winners. Labour would see some of the votes but relatively little of the transfers from FF.
Labour, along with the Greens could form a minority government with out side support from SF(as they probably will still have guns in 2006). FF and FG would only form a government if SF over took one of them.

In the end I strongly see Irish politics changing dynamic greatly come the next elect:

• SF rising at FFs expense
• PDs rising and going more Rightwing out of government
• Labour perhaps doubling its vote - max 45 seats
• FG not moving more than 5 seats in either direction
• A minority coalition of FG/Labour/Greens

Captain Trips

gom wrote:

Labour, along with the Greens could form a minority government with out side support from SF(as they probably will still have guns in 2006). FF and FG would only form a government if SF over took one of them.

In the end I strongly see Irish politics changing dynamic greatly come the next elect:

• SF rising at FFs expense
• PDs rising and going more Rightwing out of government
• Labour perhaps doubling its vote - max 45 seats
• FG not moving more than 5 seats in either direction
• A minority coalition of FG/Labour/Greens

For these exact reasons is why I hope to god we do not get a mashup of different minority parties. With Labour "holding the reins" per se, it's ridiculous that a party with only 20% of the vote could influence national policy.

Tony Blair's "Labour" showed how identical to humanity Labour/SOcialist parties are, even if they fly different flags, they're still human and just as corrupt.

FF is like the Republican party. They might be "bad" but at least you know what you're getting. What the hell sort of policy and non-cohesive claptrap will we get with a Labour/SF/Green government.

gom

Captain Trips wrote:

What the hell sort of policy and non-cohesive claptrap will we get with a Labour/SF/Green government.

Your mis quoting me. I said Labour/Green. All SF has to do is vote for Pat Rabbitte as Taoiseach. Thats hardly a government seat.

mycroft

I think you're right Gom.

Since the state was founded we've been presented with two main parties who's major difference is whose side you/your father/or your grandfather fought on during the civil war.

Philosophical, Morally, Ethically, there's nothing different between the two parties. They are both conservative, catholic, right wing.

We need to change this dominance if we want real political growth in Ireland

flogen

I like the Labour party, probably the best of a bad bunch when in comes to main political parties IMO.

While I have my reservations about Kenny, I'm just happy to see any possible competition to FF in the next election, maybe FG might actually get going now, with some renewed vigour.

flogen

AngelofFire

Im a Labour supporter and member but i dont like Fine Gael because of their traditional right wing stance and authoritarian social outlook, Restrict pub opening hours even further? No thanks.Raise the drinking age to 20? you must be joking.And i thought McDowell was bad with ILA 2003.

i just cannot see how some of our policies would fit in a coalition with a centre right party.A coalition with them would damage our credibility.

Cork

flogen wrote:

I like the Labour party, probably the best of a bad bunch when in comes to main political parties IMO.

flogen

FG and Labour need vredable policys.

I think the people of this country need more than baby bonds before they consider voting for Labour.

They need a common platform with credable policy.

They seem to be a long way from this.

daveirl

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redspider

I always think there are problems with FG/Lab coalitions in terms of ideaology - in fact FF/Lab are closer and more suitable bed-fellows. I think that Enda Kenny wont be seen as a leader for Ireland and the FG/Lab combination wont have enough of a clout even with GP.

The two happiest parties after the so-called Mullingar Accord was announced were FF and SF. They will be delighted to see that a joint campaign has been announced.

If I was Lab I would state clearly that we wouldn't go into any coalition and try and build the party up on left of centre, just left of FF, but not too left, and not New Labour. Essentially do the same tactics as they did with Dick Spring (33 seats) but dont fall for the power lust trap and make a Government, bide their time, etc. (I agree with daveirl). The last election they didnt decide before the election so the voters decided for them - that was a bad choice. And now again, I think they have made a bad choice. I can see Pat Rabbitte going soon. Would a female then not make a better leader?

The problem for the current Lab team is that they are power hungry and time is running out for the individuals. They are seeing SF eat into their votes and this decision to provide an alternative government at any cost is short-termism.

I am all for changes in government, but not for the sake of it, and I'm sure the electorate will be likewise.

FG I think need to regroup for another election, so they too should have just gone hell for leather in building up their votes. They are a party in transition as in some areas they are making gains yet in other areas they are losing.

I dont think in a country like Ireland there is a need for a FG AND a FF.

As for the PD's, they are just an off-shoot of FF, all of them ex-FF. Mary Harney worked for Charlie Haughey for years and her and many others only went into this anti-CH (pro Des party) because they didnt get picked in FF, Consider it an FF split, not a real coalition. But FF would like to see them sidelined if they can, especially as they doubled their seats last time from 4 to 8.

The Greens are interesting, but are seeing their vote also go to others like SF. They perhaps could go in with FF.

As for SF, they will do what they do best, keep their heads down, not mention government, work the ground, work the media, play the left card and gain seats.

Who knows, maybe the idea of power share and the d'hondt system will come into force this side of the border ....

sceptre

redspider wrote:

Would a female then not make a better leader?

Not just because she's female but we've had that discussion lately.

I rather doubt Rabbitte will go anywhere any time soon.

I can see what they're doing: they're giving (or starting to give) the impression that there's an alternative government out there. Without that you'll have the PDs trying that "hey, we'll watch the effeffers for ya cos they're going to get in anyway" trick again.

flogen

Cork wrote:

FG and Labour need vredable policys.

I think the people of this country need more than baby bonds before they consider voting for Labour.

They need a common platform with credable policy.

They seem to be a long way from this.

do us all a favour cork, and think before you post.

Labour have a lot more going for them than baby bonds, they just happen to have an outlook that I can generally agree with. Out of all the parties going, I find I would argue less with a labour candidate than anyone else. Best of a bad bunch.

And I never said that FG and labour was some kind of political dream team, but rather its the first light of some kind of credible opposition to the FF party you love so much. They have a lot to do, certainly, this is one step in the right direction.

Read my posts properly in future.

flogen

Raskolnikov

gom wrote:

• SF rising at FFs expense

I'm not so sure about that, there are vast swathes of the country that Sinn Féin has utterly no representation in at all.

http://election.polarbears.com/online/da2002.htm

Outside of Kerry North, Cavan-Monaghan, parts of Dublin, Meath, Louth (which they have) there are three or four other constituencies where they have a chance at seat. FF will be hit by SF, but I don't think as badly as is being made out.

Also, if Labour are looking to substantially increase their share of the vote then they'll be targetting the same voters as SF. Thus, I think Labour could well be squeezed out of a few marginals if their votes gets split by SF.

If Labour took a more Republican stance in the affairs of N. Ireland then they'd gobble up the SF vote and probably anihilate it altogther, obviously that's pure conjecture and unlikely to happen.

gom wrote:

• PDs rising and going more Rightwing out of government

I think we're going to see the PD's stick it out with Bertie's gang for another term. Neither will be able to go it alone in government and neither will want to give up the reins of power. I can't see them getting anymore 'right-wing' than they already are, + or - 1 seat.

gom wrote:

• Labour perhaps doubling its vote - max 45 seats

Labour making any significant advances means that FF (given that SF will nick a seat or two from them as well) have to completely go into meltdown and FG make no gains at all. Labour will take some of the disgruntled FF vote and I think, some of the Green vote too. The latter I think are going to take a beating. Green-friendly policies are all well and cozy, but when we start having to pay for them it becomes a different matter. Not to mention, we've seen little or nothing of them in the Dáil.

gom wrote:

• FG not moving more than 5 seats in either direction

I'd agree with that.

gom wrote:

• A minority coalition of FG/Labour/Greens

Disagree, FF/PD's will be pulling out all the pre-election sweeteners in this one.