Cabinet Reshuffle - What's Your Prediction?

PH01

Was anybody watching The Panel last night? Well if you weren't, they had Ivan Yeats (ex-FG TD and Min. of Agriculture) who is now a bookie. He was asked about the cabinet reshuffle. He mentioned some obvious ones like Joe Walsh is going to get the boot, and surprisingly Ivan mentioned that Brennan is going to find himself without a seat at the cabinate table as well.
Wow, I said. Brennan to go! Unbelieveable. I think he's got Brennan wrong - I see him swapping places with Mary Harney.

But anyhow, here are my predictions for the Cabinet Reshuffle which will be announced tomorrow week. What's yours?

Mary Coughlan - Agriculture and Food
Martin Cullen - Arts, Sport and Tourism
Mary Hanafin - Communications, Marine and Natural Resources
Eamonn O'Cuiv - Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs
Frank Fahey - Defence
Noel Dempsey - Education and Science
Dick Roche - Environment, Heritage and Local Government
Brian Cowen - Finance
Dermot Ahern - Foreign Affairs
Michael Martin - Health and Children
Michael McDowell - Justice, Equality and Law Reform
John O'Donoghue - Social and Family Affairs
Mary Harney - Tánaiste,
Seamus Brennan - Enterprise, Trade and Employment
Mary Harney - Transport

Brian Lenihan - Chief Whip

aodh_rua

I'd say Mary Hanaffin will get Education - she's been getting a high media profile throughout the summer, plus she's another former teacher who graduated to Leinster House.

Frank Fahey is unlikey to get a full post as he's been a bit a maverick and spoken against policy. O'Cuiv is in a similar position but he's probably safe in the Gaeltacht post.

Mary Coughlan for agriculture? Not wanting to sound sexist, but I doubt we're going to see a female agriculture minister. She could be a bet for Health if Michael Martin gets moved to Foreign Affairs, although I can see Dermot Ahern slotting into Iveagh House - especially as a border TD.

The other choices especially Roche and Harney seem pretty shrewd.

sliabh

The general feeling is that FF will want to hold onto Transport. There are a number of high profile road openings between now and election time and they want a FF minister getting the glory for each one.

gom

PLease god not another damned predictions poll

PH01

gom wrote:

PLease god not another damned predictions poll

Relax, it isn't a poll. It's prediction and a discussion how things are going to pan out next Wednesday.

De Rebel

What about Willie O'Dea ? I'd have him more likely to get in than Francis Fahey.

MadsL

As long as they don't put Mary Hanafin in where she might actually have to do anything. She was good as a party cutout for when Bertie was 'unavailable' - Pray to God she doesn't get Comms - she was a chocolate teapot as 'e-minister' or something serious like Health or Education.

I'd say Mary Hanaffin will get Education - she's been getting a high media profile throughout the summer, plus she's another former teacher who graduated to Leinster House.

High profile as in opening things you mean...

this thread highlights some of Mary's 'achievements' as 'e-minister'

PH01

That's interesting about Mary. I thought she was a good egg. Comes across very well on TV and the like. Perception is key I suppose

gom

PH01 wrote:

That's interesting about Mary. I thought she was a good egg. Comes across very well on TV and the like. Perception is key I suppose

Thats the main point of the IrelandOffline tread. She is nothing but a spokesperson and has never really done anything regarding policy formation. If anything Mary Hanafin should be a spokesperson employed by FF and not a TD...

In my opinion that tread in Ireland Offline should recommence. Her husband has died and we paid our respects. The truth is she is still assuming the role as e-minister and we should highligh her shortcomings

PH01

gom wrote:

Thats the main point of the IrelandOffline tread. She is nothing but a spokesperson and has never really done anything regarding policy formation. If anything Mary Hanafin should be a spokesperson employed by FF and not a TD...

In my opinion that tread in Ireland Offline should recommence. Her husband has died and we paid our respects. The truth is she is still assuming the role as e-minister and we should highligh her shortcomings

that article http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2002/07/07/story323606.asp was from July 2002, sure she has done something since then?

sliabh

PH01 wrote:

that article http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2002/07/07/story323606.asp was from July 2002, sure she has done something since then?

Well Karlin Lillington writing in the IT last Friday said no. Hanafin has been a figurehead and it's mainly been Mary Harney (in Enterprise, Trade and Employment) and Dermot Ahern (Communications, Marine and Resources) that have been driving things.

Hanafin got the FF whip position and the new eminister co-ordination role as a sop when she didn't make the cabinet the last time (that joker smith bumped her out) and she has concentrated on the doing the whip job since.

To be fair to her she had few powers and no money so it would have been an uphill struggle to achieve anything

Nickj

gom wrote:

Thats the main point of the IrelandOffline tread. She is nothing but a spokesperson and has never really done anything regarding policy formation. If anything Mary Hanafin should be a spokesperson employed by FF and not a TD...

In my opinion that tread in Ireland Offline should recommence. Her husband has died and we paid our respects. The truth is she is still assuming the role as e-minister and we should highligh her shortcomings

Gom,

You seem not to like Hanafin at all - that's fair enough, but you should put your own politics aside for a moment. I'm in her constituency and from knowing a bit about her ministerial responsibilities as Junior Minister for Children, and doing a bit of research on her (which you should also do) that she's done a hell of a lot wherever she's been (and I'm not on about fixing pot holes).

If you look at the make-up of departments, there are a definitely a couple with tag-on responsibilities - responsibilities which really don't have much clout in the overall scheme of things. It seems obvious when you look at it that Hanafin hasn't had much by way of a kitty to dish out goodies, and, in truth, the whole 'Information Society/e-this-e-that' concept is little more than the ideological wing of the 'Communications' brief (with a nod to Education and Science, Enterprise and a few others).

Not that it's relevant to what she's doing now, but she fought hard on the issue of foster care (ok, so it might not affect us all), which delivered substantial increases in payments to foster parents in this country. She was also heavily involved in stuff like the National Children's Strategy, Dail na nOg, Children Act, etc (there's your 'policy formation'). She's still a relative newcomer (1997) to national politics. Anyone who makes their way into the Cabinet after 5 years is doing something right. Remember, only one other member of the Cabinet has been elected to the Dail in the last 15 years (Eamon O'Cuiv).

She has been dealt a difficult and wide-ranging hand (juggling Chief Whip/Junior in Defence/e-Minister), and has played it as well as anyone could have expected.

If she does move in the reshuffle, I think she should get Social and Family Affairs. ( :eek: Cullen for Communications).

MadsL

Nickj wrote:

Gom,

You seem not to like Hanafin at all - that's fair enough, but you should put your own politics aside for a moment. I'm in her constituency....

Wonder have you set aside your politics...

and from knowing a bit about her ministerial responsibilities as Junior Minister for Children, and doing a bit of research on her (which you should also do) that she's done a hell of a lot wherever she's been (and I'm not on about fixing pot holes).

Perhaps you would post more examples then?? Like these 'stunning' achievements.. http://www.maryhanafin.ie/achievements.htm

Perhaps you should ask the various father's rights groups how effective she has been as Minister for Children...still a disgrace in this country after god knows how many years of lobbying for reform. Oh, look - she opened a playground...at a cost of €150,000 odd - guess where...

If you look at the make-up of departments, there are a definitely a couple with tag-on responsibilities - responsibilities which really don't have much clout in the overall scheme of things. It seems obvious when you look at it that Hanafin hasn't had much by way of a kitty to dish out goodies, and, in truth, the whole 'Information Society/e-this-e-that' concept is little more than the ideological wing of the 'Communications' brief (with a nod to Education and Science, Enterprise and a few others).

But she is quite happy to put her name to bullsh1t press releases like this...
http://www.electricnews.net/news.html?code=9410301

The report did however note that several projects are underway to help boost broadband in Ireland, including the construction of 19 regional metropolitan area networks (MANs), community based broadband schemes, the awarding of fixed-wireless broadband services, and several pilot initiatives to test broadband technologies like power line communications (PLC).

In the next eight to 13 years, the government aims to ensure that home and businesses in the country will have a 5Mbps connection to the Internet, another aim that the latest report notes, but offers no detail of whether the target will be met.

yeah riiight, eight to 13 years to get a currently available technology :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

And she has NO problem with whoring to the press all the wonderful things that FF are doing to improve infrastructure, like the (dark) fibre optic project that is 'launched' every other week :rolleyes:

And promoting blatent commercial interest dressed up as 'e-week'

eWeek will feature in each of the cultural fairs organised to celebrate the Day of Welcomes. In each town, an eWeek pavilion will be set up to show how Ireland and its new European partners can apply technology to connect and integrate within an enlarged Europe.

In other words eircom will tout overpriced underspecced web access http://www.eweekireland.ie/index.asp

Not that it's relevant to what she's doing now, but she fought hard on the issue of foster care (ok, so it might not affect us all), which delivered substantial increases in payments to foster parents in this country. She was also heavily involved in stuff like the National Children's Strategy, Dail na nOg, Children Act, etc (there's your 'policy formation').

Trebling a pittance...great. What about the rights as I have said for natural fathers to gain automatic guardianship of their own children whatever the mother has to say.
Dail na nOg, - what a groundbreaker - that'll change the world.
National Children Strategy - Just enlightened social services policy.

She's still a relative newcomer (1997) to national politics. Anyone who makes their way into the Cabinet after 5 years is doing something right.

Bullcrap - she's been on the National Executive of FF for over 20 years. She's a former Treasurer for God's sake! - I bet she's keeping some of Bertie's dirty little secrets schtum - and she's also a former Senator's daughter!

She has been dealt a difficult and wide-ranging hand (juggling Chief Whip/Junior in Defence/e-Minister), and has played it as well as anyone could have expected.

Well boo-hoo, whilst I do sympathise with the death of her husband, I cannot shed any tears for someone whose job seems to consist of going to things for Bertie and sending out Press Releases...given that

"The highest-paid member of the Taoiseach's "spin machine", programme manager Mr Gerry Hickey, is on an annual salary of €172,982 - higher than the €158,567 paid to Government Ministers. In total, the new Government's team of policy and press advisers will cost more than €2 million a year.Between them, the Taoiseach, Tánaiste, Ministers and the Attorney General have employed a total of 31 special or press advisers since early June."

So, for 150K odd - plus a major amount of paid help - I don't think she has a raw deal.

If she does move in the reshuffle, I think she should get Social and Family Affairs.

And shaft separated fathers some more...

Nickj

MadsL wrote:

Wonder have you set aside your politics...

MadsL, you're obviously on some crusade, or else are merely an extremely frustrated person in general. Really (and I genuinely don't mean to patronise), I can't help you with that.

My ONLY interest in this topic is that I just happen to come from the constituency of the person you are ranting and raving (unfairly, IMO) about, and know of her. Ok, so this is not a parochial thread, and the issue at hand is who will get what is Bertie's new team. However, I was simply pointing out that previous (and your most recent) contributions on this topic are blatently biased and obviously stemming from the finger-tips of party-political hacks.

Having been impressed with a politician and having cast my 1st preference in their favour does not necessarily make me overtly "political". I am a long admirer of politicians of various colours, both locally and nationally (Eamonn Gilmore, for one, David Andrews, John Bruton, Jim Kemmy, really, the list goes on) and have voted for a variety of politically divergent candidates in the local, euro, presidential elections. She's helped my family, and did so by taking a personal interest.

Perhaps you can enlighten me about Fathers' Rights?

"Trebling a pittance...great. What about the rights as I have said for natural fathers to gain automatic guardianship of their own children whatever the mother has to say.
Dail na nOg, - what a groundbreaker - that'll change the world.
National Children Strategy - Just enlightened social services policy."

How much was "a pittance"? Do you know? Please, reply with the previous amount.

"Bullcrap - she's been on the National Executive of FF for over 20 years. She's a former Treasurer for God's sake! - I bet she's keeping some of Bertie's dirty little secrets schtum - and she's also a former Senator's daughter!"

What are you on about?!! I said "National Politics". National Politics means the Oireachtas. Is this news to you? And, are you saying she is crooked?

Well boo-hoo, whilst I do sympathise with the death of her husband, I cannot shed any tears for someone whose job seems to consist of going to things for Bertie and sending out Press Releases...given that
So, for 150K odd - plus a major amount of paid help - I don't think she has a raw deal.

Who mentioned raw deal? What I said was "a difficult and wide-ranging hand".

Your even more pathetic and political that Gom!!!

I feel sorry for you. No... no, I don't.

bonkey

Nickj wrote:

Your even more pathetic and political that Gom!!!

I feel sorry for you. No... no, I don't.

Please (re-)read our charter. Personal attacks will not be tolerated.

jc

Nickj

bonkey wrote:

Please (re-)read our charter. Personal attacks will not be tolerated.

jc

But character assassinations of non-users are?

Apologies to Gom, apologies to MadsL.
Point taken. Point made.

bonkey

Nickj wrote:

But character assassinations of non-users are?

Short answer : yes.

Long answer :

Given that discussing any political issue typically involves also discussing those involved in the issue at hand, it would be impossible to allow any discussion to continue if we opposed people disagreeing with and/or criticising those policy makers.

One man's fact is another man's fiction. What you see it as character assassination, he probably sees it as closer to the truth than your version of events.

Thats a fundamental basis for discussion as I see it - people having the freedom to disagree, as it is from such disagreements that the discussion grows.

Insulting the person you're discussing with, on the other hand, is neither a fundamental basis for discussion, nor conducive to promoting it either. If anything, it is the opposite - it disrupts discussion, often-times to the point of ending it in favour of a punch-and-judy of name-calling/insulting.

The moderators job here - as we see it - is to facilitate discussion. Ergo, we will not allow personal attacks on other posters. Allowing people their freedom to voice their opinion of external individuals, however, is not something we either want to or try to cap in and of itself.

I would go so far as to say that you were doing an excellent job with your refutation until you threw in those last few lines which I objected to. It neither added anything to your argument, nor the discussion.

jc

Cork

I would like to see Mary Harney getting heakth. The strategic reports are done & we need somebody to take on some of the powerful lobby groups in the health area.

We also want somebody strong in finance who will resist the temptation to throw money at problems. Brian Cowen would be a good choice.

I would actually like to see Dermot Ahern remain in Communications.

I think Brian Lenihan & Mary Hanaffin deserve promotion.

It should be interesting.

BuffyBot

Mary has campaigned long and hard - and with success - for the introduction of Government regulations in relation to jet-skis.

My personal favourite from her site.

RainyDay

Cork wrote:

We also want somebody strong in finance who will resist the temptation to throw money at problems. Brian Cowen would be a good choice.

But wouldn't that scupper Bertie's cunning plan to buy the result of the next election? He's hardly like to change the tactic that worked so well in 2002, is he?

Far more likely to get the nice bendy/flexible Dermot Ahern in Finance who will do whatever Bertie tells him to do.

Cork

RainyDay wrote:

But wouldn't that scupper Bertie's cunning plan to buy the result of the next election? He's hardly like to change the tactic that worked so well in 2002, is he?

Far more likely to get the nice bendy/flexible Dermot Ahern in Finance who will do whatever Bertie tells him to do.

I think that the economy is far more important than election gemicks. The whole baby bond policy put forward by Labour seems to be the type of policy that needs avoidance.

I hope that who ever is appointed will make sure that our ecomony is not to be damaged for short term political advantage.

I hope that the economy is doing well come the next election and employment rates are high. The Irish electorate are too educated to be taken in by ploys such as compansation for Eircom shareholders etc.

RainyDay

Cork wrote:

I think that the economy is far more important than election gemicks. The whole baby bond policy put forward by Labour seems to be the type of policy that needs avoidance.

Fully agree - & I'm a Labour party member btw.

Cork wrote:

The Irish electorate are too educated to be taken in by ploys such as compansation for Eircom shareholders etc.

Don't underestimate the greed of the average voter.

Cork

It looks as if Michael McDowell will stay in justice.

I think Cowen will probably take over finance. Hopefully, somebody with ability will get health.

I think Brian Lenihan and Mary Hanafin will get the nod.

But, hopefully they won't loose the run of them selves in the lead up to an election.

Tax rates will be cut in the next budget & personal allowances will be indexed.

I can't see dramatic change in government policy but purse strings will probably be loosened a little.

cdebru

PH01 wrote:

Mary Harney - Transport

i think your wrong on that one i'll tell you why
a couple of times in the last year or two brennan has overstepped the mark in transport in his dealings with the unions
bertie has had to come in and clarify and give his word because brennans is not trusted by the unions
now he could not do that with harney he would have to stand over whatever decision she made
chances are harney would be even tougher on the unions in fact she has been quoted as saying that she would pull out of government if brennans plans were not met
it would be madness to put harney in there a gauranteed long term strike in aer rianta and cie bertie doesnot want that coming upto the next general election
he will either leave brennan or move another ff who he can bypass when things get tough

chris_d_rat

Well heres my predictions;

Absolutely nothing will improve for the better even if Bertie demolishes and rebuilds his cabinet. My guess is that Michael Martin, Seamus Brenann and Noel Dempsey are likey to be moved or replaced.

MadsL

Nickj - seeing as you apologised I have taken a few days to let the steam stop coming out of my ears. But I owe you a reply...

Nickj wrote:

MadsL, you're obviously on some crusade, or else are merely an extremely frustrated person in general. Really (and I genuinely don't mean to patronise), I can't help you with that.

Wow, astonishing how well you managed to patronise without 'meaning' to do so. You know me so well from just one post, maybe I should have saved all my money on therapy and mailed you instead. :rolleyes:

My ONLY interest in this topic is that I just happen to come from the constituency of the person you are ranting and raving (unfairly, IMO) about, and know of her. .

...and you just happened to have found this thread, as you were searching the web for the name Mary Hanafin perhaps...or do you post here all the time? Nope, 4 posts - all about Mary and FF. Hmmmm....

However, I was simply pointing out that previous (and your most recent) contributions on this topic are blatently biased and obviously stemming from the finger-tips of party-political hacks

Obviously. God forbid I should form my own opinions.

Having been impressed with a politician and having cast my 1st preference in their favour does not necessarily make me overtly "political".

But if I am unimpressed by a politician, then my opinions stem from "the finger-tips of party-political hacks"

I am a long admirer of politicians of various colours, both locally and nationally (Eamonn Gilmore, for one, David Andrews, John Bruton, Jim Kemmy, really, the list goes on) and have voted for a variety of politically divergent candidates in the local, euro, presidential elections.

So what.

She's helped my family, and did so by taking a personal interest.

Get you off a traffic ticket? It's well for you.

Perhaps you can enlighten me about Fathers' Rights?

Easy. They have none.
http://www.cidb.ie/live.nsf/0/b8dfec0661957aab802568c5003607fc?OpenDocument

How much was "a pittance"? Do you know? Please, reply with the previous amount.
Yes, I do know. Do your own research.
www.google.com

"Bullcrap - she's been on the National Executive of FF for over 20 years. She's a former Treasurer for God's sake! - I bet she's keeping some of Bertie's dirty little secrets schtum - and she's also a former Senator's daughter!"

What are you on about?!! I said "National Politics". National Politics means the Oireachtas. Is this news to you? And, are you saying she is crooked?

There was me confusing the word National, with that other word, what was it, oh yes National. :rolleyes:

Well boo-hoo, whilst I do sympathise with the death of her husband, I cannot shed any tears for someone whose job seems to consist of going to things for Bertie and sending out Press Releases... for 150K odd - plus a major amount of paid help - I don't think she has a raw deal.

Who mentioned raw deal? What I said was "a difficult and wide-ranging hand".

Compared to what, which minister has it easier - Finance? Justice? How is Mary under more pressure?

Your even more pathetic and political that Gom!!!
I feel sorry for you. No... no, I don't.

Apology accepted

PH01

cdebru wrote:

i think your wrong on that one i'll tell you why
a couple of times in the last year or two brennan has overstepped the mark in transport in his dealings with the unions
bertie has had to come in and clarify and give his word because brennans is not trusted by the unions
now he could not do that with harney he would have to stand over whatever decision she made
chances are harney would be even tougher on the unions in fact she has been quoted as saying that she would pull out of government if brennans plans were not met
it would be madness to put harney in there a gauranteed long term strike in aer rianta and cie bertie doesnot want that coming upto the next general election
he will either leave brennan or move another ff who he can bypass when things get tough

I think you may be right about this one, especially in light of the reports in the Sunday papers were they say that she's going to Health. She's gonna ruffle some feathers there for sure.
And about Brennan ruffling feather in CIE, Aer Rianta and the various transport unions is no bad thing for Bertie - for he like nothing more than to be seen as the peace maker. And he probebly likes Brennan around to take those vested interests down a peg or two.

seamus

chris_d_rat wrote:

Well heres my predictions;

Absolutely nothing will improve for the better even if Bertie demolishes and rebuilds his cabinet. My guess is that Michael Martin, Seamus Brenann and Noel Dempsey are likey to be moved or replaced.

Bertie is smarter than he looks and sounds. As everyone in the media has pretty much been saying, he knows full well that the performance of his new cabinet will be under scrutiny from now until the next General Election. If they don't perform, FF will take a massive hit like the massacre that was the Local Elections. If they do perform, it'll be damage limitation. Remember from the last election, people's votes tend to be based on performance and promises from the preceding year/6 months, not on the entire term of office.

It's now a very real threat that Bertie could be out at the next election, and that's the last thing he wants. I actually believe him when he said that he would remove anyone who's not performing. Am I being naive?

PH01

Looks like the Reshuffle is happening as we type. Bertie is the new Minister of Transport - http://www.rte.ie/news/2004/0928/luas.html
Where's Tiny Brennan?

PH01

PH01 wrote:

Mary Coughlan - Agriculture and Food
Martin Cullen - Arts, Sport and Tourism
Mary Hanafin - Communications, Marine and Natural Resources
Eamonn O'Cuiv - Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs
Frank Fahey - Defence
Noel Dempsey - Education and Science
Dick Roche - Environment, Heritage and Local Government
Brian Cowen - Finance
Dermot Ahern - Foreign Affairs
Michael Martin - Health and Children
Michael McDowell - Justice, Equality and Law Reform
John O'Donoghue - Social and Family Affairs
Mary Harney - Tánaiste,
Seamus Brennan - Enterprise, Trade and Employment
Mary Harney - Transport

Brian Lenihan - Chief Whip

Mary Coughlan - Agriculture and Food
John O'Donoghue - Arts, Sport and Tourism
Noel Dempsey - Communications, Marine and Natural Resources
Eamonn O'Cuiv - Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs
Willie O'Dea - Defence
Mary Hanafin - Education and Science
Dick Roche - Environment, Heritage and Local Government
Brian Cowen - Finance
Dermot Ahern - Foreign Affairs
Mary Harney - Health and Children
Michael McDowell - Justice, Equality and Law Reform
Seamus Brennan - Social and Family Affairs
Michéal Martin - Enterprise, Trade and Employment
Martin Cullen - Transport

Tom Kitt - Chief Whip