Kerry needs New Hampshire to Win

PH01

I've had look at http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep21.xls and I've played around with it and I reckon that it will all boil down to in the end three or four states, Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), New Hampshire (4) and Wisconsin (10).
But before one gets there, here's how I see the swing states working out:

Arkansas (6) - This is probably too close to call, but I'm going to give it to Kerry as the graph appears to be going his way. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html
Colorado (9) - Another tight one. But I'm going to give it to Kerry http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/colorado.html
Florida (27) - This is going Bushs way - looks a certainty - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html
Iowa (7) - This is Kerry's for sure - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/iowa.html
Maine (4) - A no brainer, Maine belongs to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maine.html
Maryland (10) - Giving that to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maryland.html
Minnesota (10) - kerry again - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/minnesota.html
Nevada (5) - Bush has got this one - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/nevada.html
New Hampshire (4) - A rare one for a Texan up north - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-hampshire.html
New Jersey (15) - Going to give this to Kerry as it shouldn't be a hard job for him to pull it back.
Ohio (20) - Bush looks to have this - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html
Pennsylvania (21) - This one looks very tight. But I reckon Kerry to shade it. Kerry has to win this or it all over for real. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html
Wisconsin (10) - The graph here looks all over the place, but looking at the Zogby poll Kerry looks like holding. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html

All this means Kerry loses by 6 electoral votes. If he takes New Hampshire he wins.

wheels of ire

Do you really think Mayo is going to win?

wheels of ire

PH01 wrote:

I've had look at http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep21.xls and I've played around with it and I reckon that it will all boil down to in the end three or four states, Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), New Hamshire (4) and Wisconsin (10).
But before one gets there, here's how I see the swing states working out:

Arkansas (6) - This is probably too close to call, but I'm going to give it to Kerry as the graph appears to be going his way. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html
Colorado (9) - Another tight one. But I'm going to give it to Kerry http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/colorado.html
Florida (27) - This is going Bushs way - looks a certainty - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html
Iowa (7) - This is Kerry's for sure - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/iowa.html
Maine (4) - A no brainer, Maine belongs to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maine.html
Maryland (10) - Giving that to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maryland.html
Minnesota (10) - kerry again - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/minnesota.html
Nevada (5) - Bush has got this one - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/nevada.html
New Hampshire (4) - A rare one for a Texan up north - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-hampshire.html
New Jersey (15) - Going to give this to Kerry as it shouldn't be a hard job for him to pull it back.
Ohio (20) - Bush looks to have this - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html
Pennsylvania (21) - This one looks very tight. But I reckon Kerry to shade it. Kerry has to win this or it all over for real. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html
Wisconsin (10) - The graph here looks all over the place, but looking at the Zogby poll Kerry looks like holding. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html

All this means Kerry loses by 6 electoral votes. If he takes New Hamshire he wins.

Sorry, I was only taking the p, just like you and New Ham(p)shire ! I actually follow US politics and agree with you about chickenhawk Republican killers!
Sorry if you are upset, and hoping your analysis is wrong.
But it is a bit sobering to think that you kill more of each other with legally held assault weapons than the 'terrorists' do.
'The right to bear arms makes just as much sense as the right to arm bears'

bonkey

wheels of ire wrote:

But it is a bit sobering to think that you kill more of each other with legally held assault weapons than the 'terrorists' do.

Its even more sobering to realise that this is a non-election issue, given that neither side are willing to bite the bullet (ho ho) and seek to have the ban re-introduced.

Bush made noises about wanting to see the ban continued, but unlike other issues he professes to be dear to his heart and of importance, this isn't one where he's actually trying to pressure Congress about.

But lets not get too far off-topic....

The one thing I'd say about the electoral-vote graphs is that the projections are very much not to be trusted. Anything which tries to reduce an up-and-down pattern like that to a straight-line graph is immediately suspect.

It reminds me of the math the far right here in Switzerland used to "prove" that current trends will result in a Muslim majority by 2040. (It also "proves" that in excess of 100% of the country will be Muslim by 2055 or something).

Interesting analysis though...nice one.

I'm surprised Florida is "clearly" Bush's, especially after the fiasco there last time round. This may be an artefact of those dodgy projections, or it may indeed by clearly Dubya's (if only cause of Jeb), but I would have imagined that Florida was gonna be a really tough sell....

jc

PH01

bonkey wrote:

I'm surprised Florida is "clearly" Bush's, especially after the fiasco there last time round. This may be an artefact of those dodgy projections, or it may indeed by clearly Dubya's (if only cause of Jeb), but I would have imagined that Florida was gonna be a really tough sell....
jc

Bush appears to have benefited from the hurricanes that have been whipping around that state for the last couple of weeks. He's promised all sorts of goodies.
And looking at the graph, the state poll appears to be going in the right direction for him. While Kerry's graph appears static.
It's for these reasons that I see Florida going Bush's way.

TomF

I see Kerry winning Massachusetts, and if he is lucky maybe Vermont and Oregon. The other 47 states will be won by Bush.

LightofDarkness

And let's hope he doesn't get New Hampshire.

My god, Kerry is even worse than Bush! He's a flip flopper, he keeps contradicting himself. He can't govern. He's also a freaking doormat. He would, through neglect and flip-flopping, wreak more havoc and create more loss of life than anything Bush has done. But then of course we all know George is going to go out with a bang, even though Dubya is a puppet. Which is another interesting matter about who's the master, but we'll get into it another time.

Folks, we're screwed either way. Bush is probably the lesser of two evils, however impossible it sounds.

mycroft

My god, Kerry is even worse than Bush! He's a flip flopper, he keeps contradicting himself. He can't govern. He's also a freaking doormat. He would, through neglect and flip-flopping, wreak more havoc and create more loss of life than anything Bush has done.

It's from the DNC website but here are Dubya's top ten flip flops

George is going to go out with a bang, even though Dubya is a puppet.

So you'd prefer a puppet to a doormat (how is Kerry a doormat btw? Don't suppose you'd like to provide any links to support this right wing gibberish)

bonkey

LightofDarkness wrote:

He's a flip flopper, he keeps contradicting himself.

Sure...and Dubya has never reversed position on anything???

I mean...seriously....look at what the GOP are complaining about when they mention this :

F'r example....Kerry opposed a funding bill for Iraq because it contained allowances for no-bid contracts. How is this protrayed by teh GOP? Its portrayed as flip-flopping in the "first he said he supported it, then he votes against it" line of thought.

Thats just ridiculous. Initially supporting the war on terror, or the war in Iraq does not mean that every subsequent step taken must also be blindly supported regardless of how stupid, corrupt, or just plain counter-productive it may be.....but thats the implication of how the GOP seem to be saying things should be done.

According to the GOP, Kerry is wrong for looking at each issue and judging it on its full merits. Instead, he should decide where he stands on the overall issue, and vote on each and every bill based on nothing more than his overall stance on the broad issue. So if Dubya came out with a plan...say to kill every Muslim woman and child as a method to win the war on terror...Kerry should either

1) Support that.
2) Oppose it, and admit he no longer supports the concept of the War on Terror.
3) Oppose this specific measure, but not the general concept of the war on terror and be branded as a flip-flopper.

No doubt someone will be outraged I'd give such an extreme example, but if you actually look at many of the cases the GOP chose to "highlight" this issue, you'll see that they're simply less extreme versions of exactly this.

The point I'm making is that it is perfectly possible to say "this is the wrong step", without saying "this entire path is wrong and I oppose it[/i]. However, in GOP-land, a Democratic Presidential Candidate (at least) is not allowed make such statements....its just a sign of lack of comittment or something.

Furthermore, the implication of the criticism made by the GOP is that once you make your decision on a broad issue, you should stick to it 100%, even if subsequent information/reflection shows you were misled, mistaken, or misinformed....

and as I said at the start....like Dubya has never done this?

jc

por

This is an interesting article, it colud open a huge can of worms http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/09/21/colo_referendum_could_make_election_a_bit_rocky/

Blaster99

The last I looked, Kerry was generally doing poorly in most "grey" states.

We obviously don't get the coverage to any greater extent over here, but Kerry comes across as a poor communicator. That's never going to win an election. GWB has a lot of the attributes Americans want from a president, and despite the mess that is Iraq he's likely to win. Kerry is incidently doing a spectacularly poor job with the whole Iraqi issue and from what I can tell he's not really offering an alternative worth considering. The key issue should have been whether to have gone for war or not, but he's managed to waffle so much about that that he's come across as both supporting the war, even in hindsight, and opposing it.

I'm a little surprised the KE04 campaign doesn't use Edwards more, given that he's a very good communicator, is likable, and looks good on TV.

Anyways, I would be surprised if Kerry wins. He's made far too many mistakes and time is running out.

sovtek

LightofDarkness wrote:

Bush is probably the lesser of two evils, however impossible it sounds.

If you revert to upside down logic and half-truth's...then maybe.
Because, as we all know, Bush didnt flip flop on anything.

PH01

por wrote:

This is an interesting article, it colud open a huge can of worms http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2004/09/21/colo_referendum_could_make_election_a_bit_rocky/

Ya that would make it far more interesting alright. And some think proportional representation is complicated?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

LightofDarkness

Okily dokily. I knew there was no point in posting on an entirely liberal dominated board, where difference of opinion is unheard of, where the self-righteousness is suffocating and the idealism aplenty. I can't believe how readily the people of this country will believe the ass-babble of Micheal Moore, and everything which comes from the UN and liberal propaganda machines. I do not call myself conservative. I believe in a little from both sides of the tracks.I suppose it's this whole thing where it's cool to be left in this country, where no one wants to hear a peep from the right-wing, because it might harsh our buzz and disprove our self-righteousness, eh?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Redleslie2

LightofDarkness wrote:

Okily dokily. I knew there was no point in posting on an entirely liberal dominated board, where difference of opinion is unheard of, where the self-righteousness is suffocating and the idealism aplenty. I can't believe how readily the people of this country will believe the ass-babble of Micheal Moore, and everything which comes from the UN and liberal propaganda machines. I do not call myself conservative. I believe in a little from both sides of the tracks.I suppose it's this whole thing where it's cool to be left in this country, where no one wants to hear a peep from the right-wing, because it might harsh our buzz and disprove our self-righteousness, eh?

If anything, since you're unwilling or unable to argue your point it looks like you're the one who's refusing to deal with anyone who disagrees with you.

Your sig isn't very funny either.

therecklessone

I'll second what Redleslie2 had to say, not because of some cosy liberal consensus, but because he's right.

Where was your argument in that little rant? Or was it all just about getting the bile off your chest?

bonkey

LightofDarkness wrote:

I knew there was no point in posting on an entirely liberal dominated board, where difference of opinion is unheard of, where the self-righteousness is suffocating and the idealism aplenty.

1) If you think there's no difference of opinion here, or that its not welcomed, you obviously haven't been here very long or read very much.

2) Self-righteousness? I would suggest you attend to the beam in thine eye before seeking to remove the motes in others.

3) Its interesting to note that you appear to rank idealism as a negative alongside the others.

4) Its even more interesting that you came to this conclusion because an entire 3 posters actually directly disagreed with your previous post. (More on which later).

5) You are right though...if this is typical of the type of contribution you think benefits a discussion - where you appear to be more interested in the denigration of other posters for disagreeing with you then in the defence of your own argument - then there may indeed be no point in you posting here.

I suppose it's this whole thing where it's cool to be left in this country, where no one wants to hear a peep from the right-wing, because it might harsh our buzz and disprove our self-righteousness, eh?

Thats definitely it. A whole 3 people disagreed with you, and its because no-one wants to hear a peep from the right (which I thought you weren't, by the way?). Indeed, 2 of the three asked questions in their responses - a clear indication that they really didn't want to hear any more of your reasoning...

jc

LightofDarkness

Yes. Quite frankly, I was getting some hair off my chest. THis country certainly contains a whole truck load of closed minded BS. And the anti-Americanism is staggering. People here tend to equate all Americans to Georgie-poo. But why is that? It's because the media in this country and in Britain have a fascination with this kind of America. Jerry Springer America. I have many a friend in the States and not ONE of them has any misconceptions about leperachauns, Ireland, their country's political status or the systems in Europe.

About Ireland again, it is sickening to present any kind of right-wing-ish view to "enlightened" (by enlightened they usually mean nouveau-liberale) friends (such as being pro-life) and immediately I'm attacked as being narrow-minded and equated to "evil" in so many words. I'm sorry that it was taken out on you. I should have had more evidence too, but this stuff is hard to dig up because it' so hush hush. As for the Kerry/Bush thing, Bush is winning by using fear tactics, Kerry can win by using smear tactics. Which he is doing now, but I think it's too little too late. He should have started attacking Bush's progress in Iraq MONTHS ago, when better damage could've been dealt. It's looking grim for Mr. Kerry, folks.

And I apologise.

shotamoose

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

I dunno, the polls they base their state data on are all over the place, and as they say "this map should not be taken too seriously until October". That also applies to other electoral college projections, like this one from Rasmussen Reports and this one which shows Kerry marginally ahead.

Cork

I suppose it's this whole thing where it's cool to be left in this country, where no one wants to hear a peep from the right-wing, because it might harsh our buzz and disprove our self-righteousness, eh?

But Bush as won many votes for his stance on abortion.

I don't think it is cool to be a left supporter.

In Cork city and county before the last general election - we had zero leftie TDs. Zero out of 20.

The next Irish general election will be fought on the economy and taxation and not on social welfare.

Kerry (reporting for duty?) has probably left it too late. Bush will have to score an own goal in the debates.

This may not be unlikely.

PH01

Those Presidetial Debates are really just yawn fests, aren't they?
Or, will Kerry realise that he has nothing to lose and go after Bushy?
Or will Bush looking at his watch make the headlines?

flogen

It baffles me how Gore could allow Bush to win in the debates, I mean he has a shot to corner Bush and make sure he can't get bailed out, but he couldnt do it!

Kerry has to get nail him this Thursday, the debates are his last hope. I think we can be sure to see Edwards pick up the points over Cheney in their debates, but that wont earn the Dems. too many votes. All Kerry needs to do is get Bush muddled and get him running, once he gets muddled he'll crucify himself, we've all seen what he gets like when he gets knocked off pace.

flogen

ykt0di9url7bc3

LightofDarkness wrote:

People here tend to equate all Americans to Georgie-poo. But why is that? It's because the media in this country and in Britain have a fascination with this kind of America. Jerry Springer America. I have many a friend in the States and not ONE of them has any misconceptions about leperachauns, Ireland, their country's political status or the systems in Europe.

Dubya kinda represents your country on economic and foreign policy matters...the media coverage comes down to two sides, Fox news or BBC news for different sides of the arguement...

Whether or not the american people believe that our country is home of the fairy folk is not an issue compared to the country's support for this inept, impulsive and small minded bigot who equates International relations with playing with Action Force and hoarding all the cookies...

The media coverage is there to provide us with the news of who will lead the most powerful country of the planet and will it result in more wars/economic growth/etc...


and as for the race...its not over till fox news declares a winner

DapperGent

Redleslie2 wrote:

Your sig isn't very funny either.

In all fairness his sig is hilarious. If you watch Family Guy and if you don't you almost certainly should.

Redleslie2

DapperGent wrote:

In all fairness his sig is hilarious. If you watch Family Guy and if you don't you almost certainly should.

I thought it might be a quote from something alright. Haven't seen family guy in a long time, never liked it. The only tv I watch these days is Curb Your Enthusiasm.

PH01

PH01 wrote:

I've had look at http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep21.xls and I've played around with it and I reckon that it will all boil down to in the end three or four states, Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), New Hampshire (4) and Wisconsin (10).
But before one gets there, here's how I see the swing states working out:

Arkansas (6) - This is probably too close to call, but I'm going to give it to Kerry as the graph appears to be going his way. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html
Colorado (9) - Another tight one. But I'm going to give it to Kerry http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/colorado.html
Florida (27) - This is going Bushs way - looks a certainty - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html
Iowa (7) - This is Kerry's for sure - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/iowa.html
Maine (4) - A no brainer, Maine belongs to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maine.html
Maryland (10) - Giving that to Kerry - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maryland.html
Minnesota (10) - kerry again - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/minnesota.html
Nevada (5) - Bush has got this one - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/nevada.html
New Hampshire (4) - A rare one for a Texan up north - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-hampshire.html
New Jersey (15) - Going to give this to Kerry as it shouldn't be a hard job for him to pull it back.
Ohio (20) - Bush looks to have this - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html
Pennsylvania (21) - This one looks very tight. But I reckon Kerry to shade it. Kerry has to win this or it all over for real. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html
Wisconsin (10) - The graph here looks all over the place, but looking at the Zogby poll Kerry looks like holding. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html


All this means Kerry loses by 6 electoral votes. If he takes New Hampshire he wins.

Revisiting this, and looking at the latest - http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep30.xls and to see how things are looking. One thing of note though, Bush has weakened slightly in the states where he was once very strong - this might be a sign of complacency creeping into the Bush vote.
However, it's Kerry who will have to get off his arse if he wants to win this.

Arkansas (6) - What was I thinking? This belongs to Bush. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html
Colorado (9) - Another Bush - getting stronger here by the day. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/colorado.html
Florida (27) - It's still Bush - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html
Iowa (7) - Kerry doesn't look to hot here now, going to Bush - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/iowa.html
Maine (4) - A no brainer, Maine belongs to Kerry - Well kinda, that graph should turn in his favour soon. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maine.html
Maryland (10) - Giving that to Kerry - and it's going his way - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maryland.html
Minnesota (10) - Kerry again - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/minnesota.html
Missouri - This state has now weakened for Bush, but I still see him holding here. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/missouri.html
Nevada (5) - Still Bush - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/nevada.html
New Hampshire (4) - This is coming Kerry's way - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-hampshire.html
New Jersey (15) - Going to give this to Kerry as it shouldn't be a hard job for him to pull it back, though it's not going to be a sure thing for him http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-jersey.html
New Mexico - This has weakened considerably for Kerry, but I reckon Kerry will hold here http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-mexico.html
Ohio (20) - Currently going Kerry's way, but there's no daylight here. Bush to hold here. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html
Pennsylvania (21) - This one looks very tight. But I reckon Kerry to shade it. Kerry has to win this or it all over for real. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html
Washington - Has weakened for Kerry, but it's still his. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/washington.html
Wisconsin (10) - Kerry not at the races here anymore http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html

***
Kerry 247 - Bush 291
At this stage it looks all over for Kerry, Unless he can pull anything back from his good performance in the first debate.

PH01

What a difference 10 days make. Kerry looked dead and buried. But he now looks like he's in the driving seat. He has gotten a great bounce back from the debates and is now fighting well in the swing states.

Florida (27) - It's still Bush - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html
Iowa (7) - Kerry's coming back here - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/iowa.html
Maine (4) - Maine is going Kerry's way - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maine.html
Maryland (10) - Kerry's solid here. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/maryland.html
Minnesota (10) - Kerry again - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/minnesota.html
Missouri (11) - This state has now weakened for Bush, but I still see him holding here. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/missouri.html
Nevada (5) - Still Bush - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/nevada.html
New Hampshire (4) - This is coming Kerry's way - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-hampshire.html
New Jersey (15) - Kerry is now solid here - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-jersey.html
New Mexico (5) - Kerry still looks good here, which surprising - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-mexico.html
Ohio (20) - Bush is getting stronger here - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html
Pennsylvania (21) - Still looks tight, but Kerry looks to have the edge. Kerry has to win this or it all over for real. - http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/pennsylvania.html
Washington (11) - Has weakened for Kerry, but it's still his. http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/washington.html
Wisconsin (10) - Kerry not at the races here anymore http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html

So how does this look? Evenstephens.
Kerry Bush
269 269