Prime Minister (Elect) Gordon Brown

PH01

Well it won't be long now before Gordo takes over from Tony, if he hasn't done so already.
I might even put a bet on that Tony will resign before Christmas. He knows he's on the way out and he might even use his dodgy heart as an excuse.
He's already talking about retiring as PM after the next election and he has confirmed that he's not going to lead Labour into a fourth election. I'd say he's under pressure to go sooner than that.
Tony's speech at their party's conference almost sounded like a resignation speech. While Brown's was like a leaders speech - a new leaders speech. Contrast Brown's speech this year and last year which was all about laying down a challenge to Blair. This year he sounded like the winner.
But what kind of leader will Brown be and will he be able to keep Labour winning at election time.
Time will tell

gom

Not at all.
I would take much of the presentation of Brown/Blair at the Conference for what it is at face value. They have allied much of their different views and aspirations. Gordon Brown's speech was given a rapturous applause but so was Tony's. Brown refered to 'New Labour' something he has never done previously, always using the more traditional 'Labour' and never claim allegence to 'The Third Way'.

The Guardian has for the last 3 months been running a very biased and unfounded articles on Why Gordon Brown will be PM soon. While I love the Guardian this sort of journalism is a kin to the 1997 front page editorial in the Irish indo about not voting for Labour on polling day.

The fact that Tony Blair freely admitted that he will lead Labour into the next General election and stand down before the following election should be taken at face value. To make such a statement and then do the opposite(stand down before the next general) would equate Labour losing much more votes than it would gain for a change in the Leadership. Its too dangerous politically to change the Leadership this soon to the next election. Voters like stability, look at the Tories or Fine Gael for evidence of dislike of constant leadership turmoil. The British Labour party understands the power of unity alot better than most. Labour is very utilitarian in its strategic behaviour. The Anti-War camp is prepared to stay quiet in order to stop the party from burning and losing the next election.

I would put €50 down that Gordon Brown will not be PM before the next general election. The only chance that Gordon Borwn has at getting the leadership is in a peaceful transfer of power between Tony and himself. If he attempted a coup it would back fire on him(even if Tony was removed).

bonkey

PH01 wrote:

Well it won't be long now before Gordo takes over from Tony, if he hasn't done so already.
I might even put a bet on that Tony will resign before Christmas. He knows he's on the way out and he might even use his dodgy heart as an excuse.

Well, CNN had this interview he did yesterday running every 15 mins or so before the debate, where Blair stated his intentions....

Assuming its true, he intends to lead Labour through the next election. Should they gain a majority, he intends to assume the Prime Ministership (Prime Ministry?) for another term, but will not stand in any further elections.

Should they lose the election.....well he didn't go into much detail about that, but I got the impression he'd be off pretty sharp quick.

Of course....His Toniness may change his mind, post-op....but I wouldn't put too much credence to that.

jc

mike65

Blair will abdicate after year 2 of the next term should Labour win it after all you'd be mad to go into an election with a new guy only finding his feet.

Also Brown is no shoe-in, Blair has, by announcing his resignation years in advance, put the pressure on Brown avoid being picked off by others in the party who have Prime-ministerial ambitions.

Mike.

chill

PH01 wrote:

Well it won't be long now before Gordo takes over from Tony, if he hasn't done so already.

Nice timing :rolleyes:

Blair announced that he will be leading through the next election and staying most of the course to the next one.
Makes sense - Brown is an impressive guy, but he doesn't appear to want the responsibility of the top job and doesn't want to fight for it. Blair has seen this and after this announcement, Brown's future rise seems shattered. His only chance of getting the top job is to break lose from the cabinet a year after the next election and making a massive drive for the position.