Bertie and Co. becoming popular again it seems

PH01

Looking at the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll the support for the Government is back up to levels since the 2002 General Election - http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2004/1008/1909437805HM1LEAD.html

Should we be surprised at this? Yes and no.
Yes, if you are of the thinking that after such a bad showing after the Local and European Elections the satisfaction for the Government parties would continue on it's downward trend. This doesn't seem to be happening. So what's up?
Others would not be surprised by this apparent change in fortune for Bertie and co. This poll confirms the feeling that the electorate had vented their anger in the Local and European Elections last June and now their thoughts are turning towards the election of the next Government. The electorate might be starting to think that this Fianna Fail lead government might not be that bad after all, especially when you look at the alternative.
This is what I think this poll confirms. What do you think? Are we reading too much into one poll?

Nuttzz

wait til the feel good faction of the SSIA's kick in. Whatever else you can say about FF they arent complete dopes

Villain

Gerry Adams up to 51% and SF up to 12%, if things continue like this no coalition will be able to form a Government without SF, or all the Independents!!!

narommy

PH01 wrote:

Yes, if you are of the thinking that after such a bad showing after the Local and European Elections the satisfaction for the Government parties would continue on it's downward trend.

The Local Elections are a reflection on local issues. I'd usually vote FF but voted Labour in the locals cos I wanted a rep in our village. There's no way i'd vote Labour in Nationals.

European elections are more personality based.

ReefBreak

The small matter of having the best economy in Europe, with the second lowest unemployment rate in the world is probably helping the government's cause no end - and rightfully so. I shudder to think what a government with Labour involved would do.

As for coalition with the Irish Nazi Pa...I mean Sinn Féin, - No party will want to be seen to form a coalition with people that have links to murderers. Fortunately, SF's ratings seem to be levelling out a bit.

PH01

irish1 wrote:

Gerry Adams up to 51% and SF up to 12%, if things continue like this no coalition will be able to form a Government without SF, or all the Independents!!!

I don't think SF wants to go into Government here in the Republic after the next General Election in 2007. This they will admit themselves. They have a lot of work to do if they are to become a party of government rather than a party of protest. They are targeting the General Election of 2012 to be in Government.
As for the next election, if it looks like that SF are going to be the King Makers I believe that the electorate will come out to prevent this happening. The established parties and electorate aren't ready to have SF part of the club, and vise versa.

PH01

narommy wrote:

The Local Elections are a reflection on local issues. I'd usually vote FF but voted Labour in the locals cos I wanted a rep in our village. There's no way i'd vote Labour in Nationals.

European elections are more personality based.

Yes that too.
But they were also an opportunity for the electorate to give the Government a bloody nose.

Boggle

Goes to show that the Irish people just aint that bright!

Although the alternative explanation may be that they just hate the sight of Bertie less than most other parties...

100gSoma

Nuttzz wrote:

wait til the feel good faction of the SSIA's kick in. Whatever else you can say about FF they arent complete dopes

is anyone wondering whats going to happen when people take their 12k etc
When everyone wants it at once to put a deposit on a house with a partner etc. The govt. cannot possibly cash all this moeny at once. They have admitted that unless they come up with some scheme for people to leave the money in, there will be huge problems. Irish people like to spend spend spend. We are running at 100% consumption!

In a documentary I watched about Europe and why the ECB rates are so low, they interviewed a german man. He had one years salary in the bank, and a house, and said he had no reason to spend any money? The irish attitude is spend spend spend. if you have it, spend it like its going out of fashion.
When the german was asked why he didnt spend his amassed money, he simply relpeid, "because I am not stupid, and I have no need to spend it".

hmmm....

but seriously, what happens when everyone wants there SSIA cash at once? Anyone out there an economist? I think flooding the market with cash will inadvertenly worsen our situaiton and in fact higher inflation rates.

LFCFan

It will take an economic genius to come up with a solution that would mean withdrawls of the SSIA money would be staggered.

sceptre

100gSoma wrote:

I think flooding the market with cash will inadvertenly worsen our situaiton and in fact higher inflation rates.

That's what flooding a market with cash has always done. Even in Spain when they brought back all that New World gold.

PH01

That SSIA cash is only a small wee wee drop in the Irish Cash Ocean, so lets not worry about it.

segadreamcast

Not necessarily. In terms of cash immediately available to hand in any one time period - it suddenly becomes more significant. However, having said that - the Government should recoup a lot of the money through majorly increased consumer confidence and spending as a result. I'd imagine the biggest risk we're running with the SSIA is, indeed, higher inflation.

I suppose it wouldn't be a bad idea to keep a cynical eye on the CPI too for the next few months - before and after the big cash-in.

Cork

Nuttzz wrote:

wait til the feel good faction of the SSIA's kick in.

More Irish households have PlayStations then anywhere else in the world except Japan. We spend three times more on DVD and video rentals than our neighbours in Britain.

We go to more concerts and gigs per head then anywhere else in the world.

Look at the average mobile phone spend and spend ancahol.

Spend Atitudes have been here for years. I don't think SSIAs will mean a big spurge in spending. That spurge is already here.

AngelofFire

Official USI protests begin on tuesday expect support for FF/PDs to fall slightly.

arcadegame2004

Well the Opposition parties of the prospective Rainbow Coalition combined are on 41% compared to 38% for the Government parties and over 50% still say they are "dissatsifed with the Government's performance", so I think it is too early to start deriving from this poll that the Government will be re-elected. I prefer them to the Opposition. I have no problems with FG, but I have every problem with Labour and the Greens economic policies and prejudice against all privatisation. I hope Labour and the Greens adopt a more "case-by-case" atttitude to privatisation, and a less liberal attitude to immigration. Then I might vote for them.

Sleepy

Unless a new party form, I'm afraid I'll probably have to spoil my vote. There really isn't a single party in the country worth voting for. I really can't see FF managing to hang on another term. They'll be replaced with some kind of rainbow coalition which'll fall apart from infighting in 2/3 years and then we'll wind up back here where we started.