Dempsey:Putting Ireland in the top 10% of world's bb nations is within early reach

eircomtribunal

From siliconrepublic.


"Dempsey sets industry 400k broadband challenge


21.10.2004 - New communications minister Noel Dempsey has challenged the Irish telecommunications industry to have a minimum of 400,000 broadband subscribers achieved by the end of 2006. Dempsey said he also plans to publish a quarterly report detailing broadband customer growth numbers company by company.
“Forget about 100,000 broadband subscribers as a target - forget about 200,000. I want to see an industry target of a minimum of 400,000 broadband subscribers achieved by the end of 2006 - that's 28pc of the customer base - if industry PR is accurate that must be a realisable challenge. This is achievable,” he told today’s Telecommunications Industry Federation (TIF) annual conference in Dublin.

“The real challenge industry should set itself is 500,000 by end 2006. I also intend to publish a quarterly report, starting from November 1st, on broadband customer growth numbers by company,” he added.

However, Dempsey went all out to nail as a myth the issue that Ireland is significantly behind other countries in the rollout of broadband. “Broadband is no longer an optional extra and customer figures bear this out in no uncertain terms. Latest national broadband figures show a 70-fold increase in broadband customers since March 2003, with the number of DSL customers currently at over 75,000, and growing by over 30pc each quarter. In addition there are over 6,000 customers who access broadband by cable modem, and over 4,000 using fixed wireless access.

He also said that the Government’s target of putting Ireland in the top 10pc of the world’s broadband nations is within early reach. “Let me nail a myth here. These figures place Ireland favourably in the league tables for broadband, and indicate that the Government's objective of a top 10pc OECD position is within early reach. There is still a significant challenge and a growth premium in Ireland's broadband market for companies with the ambition, hunger, will and guile to go after it.”

Dempsey said that the current momentum around the Broadband for Schools Initiative (BSI) – which aims to have every school in Ireland broadband-enabled by the start of the 2005 school year – should be employed as a catalyst or initial step to engrain ICT into the Irish education curriculum.

Speaking on the BSI effort initiated by IBEC bodies TIF and ICT Ireland, Dempsey said: “That partnership proposition is not simply about Government and the ICT sector enhancing the physical inventory of ICT assets available in the education sector. It is also about engaging teachers, educators and all key sectoral actors in a high intensity ICT delivery programme. More than 85pc of teachers have basic ICT training and tapping into that educative goodwill can reap immense returns.”

He continued: “Education does not end at the school gate, nor should the engagement with ICT. The rollout of broadband to 4,200 schools, or put another way, into 4,200 communities, provides a great opportunity to spin that broadband out into the wider community.

"Once schools are addressed I want to see that broadband footprint extended into the broader community by industry. In the context of the programmes available to me, I am in listening mode on how we can partner to achieve that,” he told Ireland’s telecommunications industry.

By John Kennedy"

lucernarian

75,000 DSL subscribers for a country with a population of 4 million people puts us favourably in the league tables?? I think not. I think some of what Dempsey is saying needs to be nailed as a myth.

I am dissapointed that our Communications minister is coming up with soundbites like that. At least Dermot Ahern was realistic.

Paddy20

I like Dempseys style and phraseology, and my name is Father Christmas.

Jack Dempsey was a boxer, I think?...

sceptre

“Education does not end at the school gate, nor should the engagement with ICT. The rollout of broadband to 4,200 schools, or put another way, into 4,200 communities, provides a great opportunity to spin that broadband out into the wider community.

Not if most of that school access is via satellite. Oh, people will see BB in action but they'll fall over when they're told how much it'll cost them if they want BB at home in their small community.

damien

This is truely disappointing. It looks right now to me that Dempsey is taking Ahern's directive to ComReg and giving the companies not ComReg til 2006 to reach the target. It's 350,000 bb connections by mid 2005 Noel, that was Dermots target NOT 100,000 as per Eircom's own target.

It's not a myth we're behind, we are. Every damned way its spun it comes back the same - we're the European losers, we're even bigger world losers. And DSL was available in 2002 if not before, getting 75,000 since then is nothing to brag about.

The spin has already started. IrelandOffline is going to have a lot of work to do.

Boro

Noel Dempsey wrote:

Broadband is no longer an optional extra

Well at least he got this bit right.
Do you think its that he is being fed the wrong figures (something that can be fixed) or that he is just being willfully ignorant?

I hope the former.

eircomtribunal

Isolde Goggin, already as kennel blind as the old folk in Comreg, spoke of 100 000 bb connections in her self-congratulatory speech a few days ago.
Her conclusions are just fabulous:
"4. Conclusions
Overall, telecommunications regulation in Ireland has resulted in a good deal for consumers and the promotion of competition. As sectors become progressively more competitive, regulation can be rolled back..."

P.

spongebob

The next time Dempsey takes the stage to rousing background music I will personally ensure that the song blaring out will be :

"Reality Used To Be A Friend of Mine"

M

SkepticOne

Relax, it is only words from a politician. You are not meant to take it seriously. So he has 'challanged' the industry to have 400,000 connections. So what? Are the industry now going to start worrying about achieving this number? Were they worried about the last one? It's not as if he is going to do anything if they don't make it.

This is just talk and nobody is expected to believe it. It is just one of the things expected of ministers. It is what he does that is important, not what he says.

shinzon

SkepticOne wrote:

Relax, it is only words from a politician. You are not meant to take it seriously. So he has 'challanged' the industry to have 400,000 connections. So what? Are the industry now going to start worrying about achieving this number? Were they worried about the last one? It's not as if he is going to do anything if they don't make it.

This is just talk and nobody is expected to believe it. It is just one of the things expected of ministers. It is what he does that is important, not what he says.

yes and if what he says above is truly what he believes can be achieved by his actions, then hes off to a Roaring Full Stop


Shin

SkepticOne

shinzon wrote:

yes and if what he says above is truly what he believes can be achieved by his actions, then hes off to a Roaring Full Stop

What actions? Maybe that's the best thing though. He might make things worse than they are by interfering.

damien

SkepticOne wrote:

What actions? Maybe that's the best thing though. He might make things worse than they are by interfering.

Playing Devil's Advocate are we ?

The time for inaction is over. While "interfering" and pushing and shoving those in the the telecoms environment could make things worse, sitting on wilted laurels is guaranteed to make things worse.

A lot of immediate action is required to bring Ireland forward even a few steps. We have a regulator that needs regulating, we have one of the highest network access costs in the EU, we have one of the highest line rental, we have a DSL line failure rate of at least 24% and we don't even have a definition of functional internet access. Not doing anything about this and letting things be is not going to be tolerated by some very angry internet users.

SkepticOne

"We have a regulator that needs regulating"

Translate this into specific actions that can be recommended to Dempsey. This is too vague. What does he need to do?

damien

SkepticOne wrote:

This is too vague.

It is alright.

What does he need to do?

I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

SkepticOne

damien.m wrote:

I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

First I want to know what the goal is. We complain about the low figures for broadband take up. Is this the goal - to get the figures up? It has been the subject of press releases from IrelandOffline.

When I know what this group is about, I can suggest actions that can be recommended.

Dangger

This spin is has been counter spun on the back of the the Times' business section -

Sounding alarm bells over pace of broadband

BT Head Ben Verwaayen says Ireland needs to get connected, because the world is about to undergo a massive migration of work, writes Barry O'Keefe

Ben Verwaayen is perplexed. As head of BT (British Telecom) and former head of telecommunications maker Lucent Technologies, he is not a man who perplexes very easily.

What perplexes him is Ireland, and the development of broadband, teh all-encompassing term for delivering high-speed data services via phone-lines.

The Dutchman feels that broadband's development here is very, very slow..........

I don't have a sub, sorry, any one care to post the rest?

SkepticOne

Dangger wrote:

I don't have a sub, sorry, any one care to post the rest?

Presumably his solution involves Esat/BT getting more contracts from the government instead of Eircom.

Capt'n Midnight

SkepticOne wrote:

Relax, it is only words from a politician. You are not meant to take it seriously. So he has 'challanged' the industry to have 400,000 connections. does that is important, not what he says.

Maybe they could use the 2,000 Gardai promised so many years ago to enforce it. Unlike Gardai, Hot Air is free.

Would it be worth running a BroadBand canidate, like the TV Deflector did ?

SkepticOne

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Would it be worth running a BroadBand canidate, like the TV Deflector did ?

Lets assume a candidate is elected like the TV Deflector one and also the hospital campaigners. How does this translate into action on the part of the Government and what should that action be?

Urban Weigl

To_be_confirmed wrote:

75,000 DSL subscribers for a country with a population of 4 million people puts us favourably in the league tables?? I think not.

Well, it does put us ahead of Greece.

Capt'n Midnight

SkepticOne wrote:

Lets assume a candidate is elected like the TV Deflector one and also the hospital campaigners. How does this translate into action on the part of the Government and what should that action be?

Well unless there is a Hung Dail any such TD would of course be ignored. The only hope is to embarass them into more promises when they realise there could be votes in it. Anyone looked at broadband provision in Marginal constitiuencies ?

This broadband in the schools, be interesting to see the fuss kicked up when little joe has it at school but can't have it at home...

LFCFan

If we want to have any realistic chance of getting ahead of the average then Ireland needs to start using newer technology and aim ahead of everyone else, just to catch up. FTTH or something along the same lines should be in the pipeline now. As it is, the only widespread DSL we can get is crap and limited while other countries are already implementing new and better versions of the technology. Someone needs to educate Dempsey quickly or connectivity in Ireland will end up in a sorry state, just like he allowed the schools to get into bother!

SkepticOne

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Well unless there is a Hung Dail any such TD would of course be ignored. The only hope is to embarass them into more promises when they realise there could be votes in it. Anyone looked at broadband provision in Marginal constitiuencies ?

Well as we know, promises are cheap and the goal posts can always be moved when desired just like the 'challange' of Dempsey to the telcos.

Lets assume the government were embarrased into actual action as opposed to talk. What action should that be that will, in fact, achieve the goal. Should they give Eircom money to upgrade the exchanges as Eircom have suggested or should they look at measures to enhance competition like LLU?

LFCFan

SkepticOne wrote:

What action should that be that will, in fact, achieve the goal.

What about offering Tax breaks to operators to provide services along the sames lines as the Car Parks? Overnight there was a glut of the damn things. This time though it would be for something that's worthwhile.

SkepticOne

LFCFan wrote:

As it is, the only widespread DSL we can get is crap and limited while other countries are already implementing new and better versions of the technology. Someone needs to educate Dempsey quickly or connectivity in Ireland will end up in a sorry state, just like he allowed the schools to get into bother!

But even the existing technology that is there is only being used at a fraction of its capacity. The current RADSL goes up to 8 Mbit/s for those near the exchange, yet those people are only offered 512k. Just because they can offer higher speeds doesn't mean they will, so other forms of DSL such as ADSL2plus won't make any difference. ADSL2Plus at 512k is pretty much the same as RADSL at 512k . Technology is not holding them back. And, apparently, upgrading to ADSL2plus is just a firmware upgrade for a lot of exchanges (they may already have done this in some exchanges - it is backwards compatible with existing modems).

jwt

SkepticOne wrote:

Lets assume the government were embarrased into actual action as opposed to talk. What action should that be that will, in fact, achieve the goal. Should they give Eircom money to upgrade the exchanges as Eircom have suggested or should they look at measures to enhance competition like LLU?

1
Define a FIA to ensure everyone in the country can receive basic Internet access

2
Mandate that network investment is a percentge of line rent. (Apparently the last increases were allowed because there was supposed to be an increased investment in the network)

3
Kick ComReg up the a**e. Look at Denmark, UK etc and use them as a guideline on how to regulate. (Hint Try regulating from a consumer point of view)

4
Push the existing schemes such as GBS etc. Market them and streamline the aftermath. (Example Kinnegad still has no BB months after getting funding for Wireless BB from the GBS WHY? Because Westmeath Co. Council and the WISP are still trying to sort out where to put the mast!)

5
Rollup the total cost of an external operator colocating in an exchange into a single fixed price. Currently Eircom are fully entitled to charge thousands just to consider using their exchange, more for a survey, more again for another survey, more again for an inspection..... The list goes on until you run out of money

Thats just a small sample of what could be done.

As for

First I want to know what the goal is. We complain about the low figures for broadband take up. Is this the goal - to get the figures up? It has been the subject of press releases from IrelandOffline.
When I know what this group is about, I can suggest actions that can be recommended.

From the website
Campaigning For Affordable, Unmetered And Broadband Internet Access In Ireland

So, getting the figures up is A goal not THE goal
All of the points above are means to an end, there are lots of other ways as well. Feel free to contribute a positive suggestion.( That's not a snippy remark, if you have ideas on what we should be doing or what we should be about ,voice them here or email IOFFL)


John

SkepticOne

jwt wrote:

So, getting the figures up is A goal not THE goal
All of the points above are means to an end, there are lots of other ways as well. Feel free to contribute a positive suggestion.( That's not a snippy remark, if you have ideas on what we should be doing or what we should be about ,voice them here or email IOFFL)

I would suggest that the usage figures that the press and the government tend to concentrate on are largely irrelevant and a bad measure of progress.

These figures will rise even if no further expansion of broadband availability takes place. Only this year have we had broadband in the 35 to 40 euro range and there is now a rapid increase in take up and this rise in figures will go on for years. Criticising the government on the basis of take-up figures takes pressure off them to increase availability since the figures will tend rise anyway.

But lets assume that the government are worried still worried about low take-up. If so, such criticism on this particular basis will tend to provoke measures to increase demand such as public campaigns on the benefits of broadband. If broadband is available to an estimated 45% of the country, why are only around 6% or 7% within those areas using it (I'm using a figure of 3% nationally). Surely, the government will ask themselves, the priority should be to get people using broadband more in existing areas.

Now, on to positive suggestions. The real problem is availability of services, not take-up of services. The key to solving it involves an examination of why we are in the current situation. Is it really Eircom's short-term mentality as has been suggested? If so, what should their long term approach be? What are the benefits to them in financial terms of taking a different approach? From there it is easy enough to formulate specific policies for government without getting hung up on things that may have no impact.

The other thing I would suggest is harnessing the desire of local communities for broadband to solve problems locally.

eircomtribunal

SkepticOne wrote:

I would suggest that the usage figures that the press and the government tend to concentrate on are largely irrelevant and a bad measure of progress.

Would strongly disagree there.

BB usage figures are widely used internationally to compare bb development. BB usage figures (in bb subscriptions per 100 inhabitants or in percentage of bb households) are the head figure, the proof of the pudding.
If availability is not good, if the competitive climate is not good, if the network infrastructure is not, it will all show up in the usage figures.

The DCMNR in its March 2004 Policy Directive uses them by directing Comreg to achieve at least "the average EU-15 enduser broadband usage by mid 2005", so we have to take them up on that.

On the other hand the figures about the rise in uptake are misleading and useless (except for special comparisons). That our bb uptake figures rose by 300% in the last x months puts us into the league of other bb looser countries, and I would be quiet about it if I were the minister.

These figures will rise even if no further expansion of broadband availability takes place. Only this year have we had broadband in the 35 to 40 euro range and there is now a rapid increase in take up and this rise in figures will go on for years.Criticising the government on the basis of take-up figures takes pressure off them to increase availability since the figures will tend rise anyway.

This will not be the case. The current uptake figures are coming from pent-up demand and the rise will end prematurely sooner rather than later. Ireland is not catching up, not even with Luxembourg. The other countries are not standing still.

We've 1 289 000 households,
some 37% are connected to the net (a terribly low figure, caused by Comreg/ODTR allowing Eircom to price us out of using the net, and kept secret by the ODTR and Comreg out of embarrassment, by publicising wrong and better looking figures),
If 50% of these 476 930 connected households would go for bb, and that would be a miracle (the US achieved this level this year), we would stand at 238 465 possible bb households.
Now figure in a bb availability of currently 50% and we are at 119 232 possible bb households;
or figure in a 70% availability and we arrive at 166 925 possible bb households.

To meet the end of 2004 average EU-15 household penetration of 20% would require us to have 257 800 bb households (that is now without counting business bb subscriptions).

If the DCMNR or Comreg are not able or willing to make this analysis, but jump to conclusions on the basis of wishful thinking grasping onto useless uptake growth figures, they will not be able to make the radical decisions necessary to bring Ireland away from the bb status of Greece.

Some of these decision have to be in the line of:

FRIACO must become an easy entrance port for people to experience the Internet.
FRIACO was a massive flop and deception – it needs urgent and radical change to become what the minister had ordered: affordable, always on narrowband Internet connection. A €30 per month package of 180 prepaid hours, with booby-trapped get-out in the t&c, is not the way to raise our dire 37% Internet penetration level.
Read Eircom's expression of joy in their SEC filing doc about how Comreg have not reviewed FRIACO since its introduction.

€ 10 per month for real flat-rate narrowband has to be imposed and is more than dear enough.

"Whole sale line rental" as introduced by Comreg is a joke. It is not what Dermot had ordered.

LLU pricing must not be set at the second highest level in the EU, as Comreg is bent to do. Without cable competition we have to go the Danish/Japanese route and emulate competition by setting the lowest pricing possible.
France shows us that people can be leapfrogged into broadband, and not go via the FRIACO route, if low LLU prices allow bb providers to really offer amazing packets.

But lets assume that the government are worried still worried about low take-up. If so, such criticism on this particular basis will tend to provoke measures to increase demand such as public campaigns on the benefits of broadband.

You are dead right. And we have to make sure this does not happen.
The structure, the base has to be right. To do some campaigning then is admissible, but to campaign before the supply side is in order is money-wasting madness.
Worst example is again Comreg with their latest website launch, or the DCMNR with their broadband site.

If Noel is serious about bb not being an additional extra, he needs to take a clear look, get away from the spin-doctors in the DCMNR and Comreg, and do things differently from his two predecessors.

P.

SkepticOne

eircomtribunal wrote:

Would strongly disagree there.

BB usage figures are widely used internationally to compare bb development. BB usage figures (in bb subscriptions per 100 inhabitants or in percentage of bb households) are the head figure, the proof of the pudding.
If availability is not good, if the competitive climate is not good, if the network infrastructure is not, it will all show up in the usage figures.

I agree that it will show up. For example, if we have a 300% rise in take up with the current availability, this would be over 600% with full availability. And when it levels out at 45%, it will level out at less than half of what it would under 100% availability. But while take up is increasing rapidly at the momeont, the politicians have something good to point at and our only defense is calculations and projections. The politicians win here.

The DCMNR in its March 2004 Policy Directive uses them by directing Comreg to achieve at least "the average EU-15 enduser broadband usage by mid 2005", so we have to take them up on that.

Fine so long as we remember that we are interested in take up only in so far as it reflects availability (at least I'm assuming that's the case). Personally, I would rather he had not made this directive, as it has destracted us from real issue of which the take up figures are at best a reflection.

On the other hand the figures about the rise in uptake are misleading and useless (except for special comparisons). That our bb uptake figures rose by 300% in the last x months puts us into the league of other bb looser countries, and I would be quiet about it if I were the minister.

Yes, it is not a good measure of demand let alone supply.

This will not be the case. The current uptake figures are coming from pent-up demand and the rise will end prematurely sooner rather than later. Ireland is not catching up, not even with Luxembourg. The other countries are not standing still.

We've 1 289 000 households, some 37% are connected to the net (a terribly low figure, caused by Comreg/ODTR allowing Eircom to price us out of using the net, and kept secret by the ODTR and Comreg out of embarrassment, by publicising wrong and better looking figures).

This is another problem with take-up figures. They reflect actions taken in the past which we can do nothing about.

[snipped calculations]If the DCMNR or Comreg are not able or willing to make this analysis, but jump to conclusions on the basis of wishful thinking grasping onto useless uptake growth figures, they will not be able to make the radical decisions necessary to bring Ireland away from the bb status of Greece.

And this, I maintain, is the problem. We don't need to nag them on take-up figures. They are already obsessed with these since they effect Ireland's national image. Personally, I didn't like the directive on take-up given to ComReg as it didn't focus on the underlying reasons for the apparent figure. ComReg can say that they can't make people take up broadband or can go on about lack of PC ownership and other things over which they have little control.

You are dead right. And we have to make sure this does not happen.

The structure, the base has to be right. To do some campaigning then is admissible, but to campaign before the supply side is in order is money-wasting madness. Worst example is again Comreg with their latest website launch, or the DCMNR with their broadband site.

Yet this may well help with the take-up figures. I could easily see availability increase to, say, 60% and then when take-up looks like levelling off, the government launching public campaigns to push the figure higher. They might also believe that by encouraging demand, availability will also increase. This, of course, is only true to a very limited extent due to the monopolistic nature of the market, but it is an extra burden on those campaigning for greater availability.

But I don't want to argue at cross-purposes here. It is possible you regard take-up as a goal in itself - that the low take-up is bad for the country and so in order to to increase this figure it is necessary to increase availability.

This is why I wanted to discuss the issue of goals. Only when these are settled can a direction be taken. Is take-up "a goal", in itself or is it just a reflection of something else?

Paddy20

Skepticone,

I am becoming increasingly concerned about exactly what your agenda is .

All I know is that thanks to IrelandOfflines [Voluntary] unrelenting campaign over a period of years, I personally am now enjoying broadband in Ballybofey with cheaper telephone call charges as well, and I am almost completely out of EirCons devious money grabbing clutches, while most of my friends throughout Donegal still can not get broadband.Even though they desperately want it.

Would you rather IrelandOffline offline did not exist, to carry on the campaign as already outlined on this thread, and/or what exactly are you personally doing in a pro-active manner, to achieve what most citizens and the commercial sector want!, which is obviously cheap fast Internet access immediately or ASAP for everyone in this Country ?...

SkepticOne

Paddy20 wrote:

Skepticone,

I am becoming increasingly concerned about exactly what your agenda is .

All I know is that thanks to IrelandOfflines [Voluntary] unrelenting campaign over a period of years, I personally am now enjoying broadband in Ballybofey with cheaper telephone call charges as well, and I am almost completely out of EirCons devious money grabbing clutches, while most of my friends throughout Donegal still can not get broadband.Even though they desperately want it.

If you feel I'm being unfair, I'll ease off. My intention was not so much to criticize but to find what the current focus is of the group is as I think this is very important. Hope this clarifies things.