U.S Presidential Elections - Dare to call it?

AngelofFire

i think that kerry has a good chance, all he has to do is secure the states that he is almost gauranteed to do so at this stage and florida or ohio. Polls show that he is gaining ground in ohio and florida.

jank

I think Kerry will edge.

Im not sure about all the polls, so many variations and I think a large young "protest vote" will come out a hurt bush bad in the battleground states.

Heres's hoping!

BEAT

Sleepy wrote:

I think this'll have a major baring on things too. Also of interest is the fact that mobile phones aren't included in the poling and large numbers of young Americans (who are traditionally more likely to vote democrat) have given up their landlines in favour of a mobile.

Bush looks scarily likely to win again, but one can only hope the polls aren't as accurate as they are purported to be.

Then again, Kerry looks the more likely to take Ohio and no Republican president has ever won without Ohio...

Fúck it, heart over head: Kerry.

I am in Ohio and I have to tell you that both of them have been here atleast once a month for the last 4 or 5 months. They realise what you said too ofcourse, and I think Kerry will win Ohio but somehow I still think Bush will win the election. Republicans are tricky (tricky dick)
I will be voting for Kerry, not because I like him, I dont. Because I want to get Bush out of here.
The only upside to Bush winning ofcourse will be that I can vote and campaign for Hilary Clinton in 2008

FatherTed

Bush will win. Either that or it will be a reverse of 2000, with Bush getting more votes but Kerry squeezing out a win in Florida.

Either way I'm not voting for Bush, Kerry or even Nader. It's the Greens or Libertarians for me this time round. This country needs a third party voice to arise. Nader is a doucebag who skrewed over the Greens in 2000 when it was all about just himself.

FatherTed

BEAT wrote:

Hilary Clinton in 2008

That will NEVER happen. She wont get the nomination.

BEAT

FatherTed wrote:

That will NEVER happen. She wont get the nomination.

we shall see, oh yes..we shall see

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

a woman president?
rofl

pete

FatherTed wrote:

Either way I'm not voting for Bush, Kerry or even Nader. It's the Greens or Libertarians for me this time round.

I am at a loss to understand how rational people could throw away a vote that might otherwise go some way to removing Bush.

There's a time and a place for protest voting and worrying about "third party voices", and this isn't it.

therecklessone

mycroft wrote:

According to the Independent there are 4,000 lawyers (2,000 Democrat, 2,000 republician) in the state of florida alone in case there are any Shenanigans. In total both parties have actually raised an army of 10,000 lawyers with the democrats having 9 private jets on standby in case there are shenanigans, and surely the republicans have the same or more.

[IMG]http://rock_6.tripod.com/barbrady.jpg[/IMG]

Yes, man you can't just go declaring shenanigans on innocent people, that's how wars get started!

I'm going for Kerry, by a whisker (and after some serious legal challenges)

SkepticOne

If all the lawyers are in Florida, won't they just hold the shenanigans in some other state?

Victor

I hope for Kerry, but I'm afraid that Bush might win.

One thing I thought today though was, whatever about the respective camps who will always vote one way or the other, it will be "middle America" that will decide the election. And while middle America is patriotic, it isn't stupid.

Mordeth wrote:

a woman president? rofl

Yes, we've had 2.

Sir Digby Chicken Caesar

yeah, but our president has no actual power

a woman in the whitehouse with her finger on the button? one bad period and we're all ****ed!

embee

Mordeth wrote:

yeah, but our president has no actual power

a woman in the whitehouse with her finger on the button? one bad period and we're all ****ed!

Are you mad Mordeth?

Sure, look at Margaret Thatcher and all the wonderful things that happened unde........

I'll get me coat.

TomF

Of course Bush is going to be re-elected President of the United States. The only real question has to do with the size of his Electoral College win: will it be a landslide or only a big win?

I found a good article on the Los Angeles Times newspaper's site explaining why the U.S. Electoral College system is so good : http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-zycher27oct27,1,3839359.story?coll=la-news-comment-opinions

Here is a paragraph from it. "Once a candidate determines that he will be able to win a plurality in a state, thus getting all the electoral college votes, there is no point in campaigning further in that state. The candidate is then driven (by the pressure of the market, so to speak) to develop plurality support in additional states. Thus are candidates forced to broaden their geographic bases; those whose support is heavily regionalized are penalized implicitly."

seamus

TomF wrote:

Of course Bush is going to be re-elected President of the United States.

A person can only be re-elected if he has been elected before. I think "elected" is a more apt term, seeing as he was "appointed" last time. I still think he won't win, but again there's a very good chance he'll force his way into office.


I'll stop trolling

FatherTed

pete wrote:

I am at a loss to understand how rational people could throw away a vote that might otherwise go some way to removing Bush.

There's a time and a place for protest voting and worrying about "third party voices", and this isn't it.

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

sovtek

FatherTed wrote:

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

And it was largely pressure from Nader that finally forced Kerry to say anything about Bush's stupidity in regards to Iraq...Who knows how long he would have let that go otherwise....as well as how much support he would have lost amongst the anti-war vote...which is significant.
So far Nader has predicted the polling trends spot on.

Sleepy

FatherTed wrote:

he doesnt need my single vote.

Tell that to Al Gore.

I'm gonna change my prediction on this. I think the only winner in this election can be the attorneys. Bush/Kerry may be appointed as present but either way it'll be a court appointment, not the direct result of an election.

FatherTed

Sleepy wrote:

Tell that to Al Gore.

Hang on, let me try this again....very slowly....


I.....live.....in.....Connecticut.....Kerry.....will.....win.....easily.....without......my......vote.

sovtek

FatherTed wrote:

If I lived in one of the close states such as Ohio or Florida I'd be voting for Kerry. However in Connecticut where I live, he will win by about 15% so he doesnt need my single vote. However, this political system needs a good kick in the arse and maybe a third party could do that.

I believe that you should vote for the person that actually represents you.
If every person I heard say "I like Nader but....ABB ABB ABB" then Nader would most definetly get more support than Kerry. The ABB tactic hasn't got a leg to stand on.

sovtek

Sleepy wrote:

Tell that to Al Gore.

Actually he got more votes than Bush.

Hobbes

TomF wrote:

Of course Bush is going to be re-elected President of the United States. The only real question has to do with the size of his Electoral College win: will it be a landslide or only a big win?

I thought "Landslide" means a "Big win"?

I found a good article on the Los Angeles Times newspaper's site explaining why the U.S. Electoral College system is so good :

The system is flawed. 2000 election showed that and I suspect this election will too.

Sleepy

sovtek wrote:

Actually he got more votes than Bush.

Sure, we're all aware of that. But if a mere 500 of those in Florida who'd decided to vote Nader last time because, "Gee, Gore will win anyway and I like that Corvette guy..." had been more sensible, Bush wouldn't have been able to claim a win in Florida (the courts may have awarded one anyway but Gore may have been more prepared to fight it out).

FatherTed

sovtek wrote:

Actually he got more votes than Bush.

Which, for the hundredth time, doesnt matter.

PH01

FatherTed wrote:

Hang on, let me try this again....very slowly....


I.....live.....in.....Connecticut.....Kerry.....will.....win.....easily.....without......my......vote.

Your still gonna vote Ted even though Kerry is going to win the state?

FatherTed

Hobbes wrote:

The system is flawed. 2000 election showed that and I suspect this election will too.

You are right, but it could be the other way around this time if Kerry can pull off Florida.

sovtek

Sleepy wrote:

Sure, we're all aware of that. But if a mere 500 of those in Florida who'd decided to vote Nader last time because, "Gee, Gore will win anyway and I like that Corvette guy..." had been more sensible, Bush wouldn't have been able to claim a win in Florida (the courts may have awarded one anyway but Gore may have been more prepared to fight it out).

Thousands upon thousands of Democrats voted for Bush in 2000. They have only themselves to blame (ok barring the stripped voter roles...etc etc.).
Outside of "shenanigans" if Kerry looses...he'll only have himself to blame. The ABBer's will just have to look in the mirror.

FatherTed

PH01 wrote:

Your still gonna vote Ted even though Kerry is going to win the state?

A little reading goes a long way.


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=2018339&postcount=35

mycroft

sovtek wrote:

Outside of "shenanigans" if Kerry looses...he'll only have himself to blame. The ABBer's will just have to look in the mirror.

Well pleased with myself looks like "shenangians" is being adopted as the offical boards.ie word to describe any of the untoward goings on this election

chewy

any good sites to follow the going on over hte next week. like whats really happening... blogs ?