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The Polls could be very wrong in the US Election.

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  • 28-10-2004 12:17am
    #1
    ReefBreak
    Registered Users Posts: 1,075 ✭✭✭


    If I was a betting man, I would probably put my money on Bush to win. However, Robert X Cringely has written a very interesting article on why he thinks the polling statistics could be very wrong, and why he thinks Kerry will win:
    http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpittestorig.html

    (The first half of the article is unrelated to the election.)


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    #2
    Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Moriarty


    The guy who runs electoral-vote.com has mentioned this a number of times aswell quite recently. It's certainly an intresting theory and I'm sure that it's a forgone conclusion that the 'youth-vote' is going to be substantially up on 2000.. it's going to be a very intresting day or two starting next Tuesday.


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    #3
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,417 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    linkie brokie


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    #4
    shotamoose
    Registered Users Posts: 1,411 ✭✭✭shotamoose


    Is it this one ?


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    #5
    Victor
    Registered Users Posts: 78,417 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    And with 77 million U.S. mobile phones owned by people age 18-24, many of those supposedly counted are probably still associated with a parent's hard-wired telephone number but are really mobile. So the numbers of unpolled votes could be huge.
    Ooops. The number is probably about 30m, unless they have 2.5+ phones each.


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    #6
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,672 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    One confounding influence in all these polls is the fact that people without phones aren't counted at all. Fortunately, for the last 50 years, telephone penetration has been 95-plus percent in this country, so that hasn't been much of a problem...until now.
    ... the FCC said two years ago that five percent of U.S. homes have only mobile phone service and that 15 percent of university students have only mobile phone service. And with 77 million U.S. mobile phones owned by people age 18-24, many of those supposedly counted are probably still associated with a parent's hard-wired telephone number but are really mobile. So the numbers of unpolled votes could be huge.
    Actually the number of mobiles here excedes resedential land lines so may be relevant for some of our polls too.


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    #7
    Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 6,007 ✭✭✭Moriarty


    Is it against the law for pollers to call mobiles here, though? That's the issue, after all.

    I suspect not, but I could be wrong.


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