For nightowls watching US election

bobbyjoe

Came accross this handy for anyone planing on staying up late tonight.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/story/0,13918,1341533,00.html


Midnight

It is 7pm in the US eastern time zone and polls are closed in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.

This is an easy start. The first five are Bush states and Vermont is for Kerry. If either of these go the other way (Georgia was going 52%-42% for Bush in the most recent poll) it will be a major upset for the other side and the television pundits will start talking in terms of landslides. This is extremely unlikely.

Turnout figures should now be emerging. The conventional wisdom is that a high turnout favours the Democrats, but Republican efforts to mobilise their supporters mean this cannot be taken for granted.

12.30am

Polls close in Ohio and West Virginia - now we are in the interesting part. The Democrats did some last-minute campaigning in West Virginia - a shaky Republican state - and a Kerry victory, even a strong showing, bodes well for his nationwide result. A clear Bush win would suggest he is holding his ground against the challenger.

Ohio may take a while to come through. The polls are on a knife-edge and both sides have fought hard: Kerry visited it close to 30 times in the campaign and Bush almost 20. No Republican has won the White House without it, and if Kerry loses he needs to go on to take Florida and Pennsylvania to be in with a decent chance.

1am

Polls close in Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Oklahoma and should go to Bush. Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey are expected to vote Kerry. If any of these votes the other way, it looks bad for the losing side. The most likely is for New Jersey to switch to Bush. If it does, Kerry is having a bad night.

Three more swing states could now be called, though it may take a while for results to filter out. Kerry can expect to win New Hampshire and, according to the final polls, be feeling confident about Pennsylvania. A lot now depends on Ohio, which closed half an hour ago. If Bush has won it, and then wins Florida another term in the White House is looking likely. If Kerry loses Ohio, the Sunshine State starts to look like a necessity. If he wins all three he can start planning his first trip on Air Force One.

1.30am

Both Arkansas and North Carolina, where the polls are now closing are Bush states. Neither are likely to swap but a strong Kerry vote on the back of Bill Clinton's campaigning in Arkansas over the last week would point to a strong showing nationwide. If Bush loses it, he is having a bad night.

2am

You could now be getting an idea of who the winner is. Of the polls closing now Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming will go to Bush and Rhode Island and New York to Kerry.

If the Ohio-Florida-Pennsylvania axis has not yet been called - or all you can see on the television are lawyers - the swing states of Colorado, New Mexico and Wisconsin will start to look crucial.

Michigan and Minnesota are historically solid Democrat states but could be vulnerable to Bush. The worst case scenario for Kerry would be if Michigan (which only carries three less electoral college votes than mighty Ohio) fell to the incumbent. He can win without it, but it starts to look like a less credible challenge. The same is true for Bush in Arizona. If he loses in the south-west he is starting to look weak on his home turf.

3am

Monatana and Utah are Bush states. Iowa and Nevada are two swingers edging towards Bush. If Ohio has still not been called and Kerry wins Iowa (plus Michigan and Wisconsin) it points to a Democrat sweep of the Midwest that points to the White House.

4am

One candidate should really look in the lead now. California, Oregon and Washington should go to Kerry and Idaho and North Dakota. A toss-up state is normally Democrat Hawaii. Polls put it in the balance and in a very close election its three votes could be decisive.

5am-6am

Alaska, the last state to close its polls, will go to Bush. If Bush has a lead but Kerry is three votes short, do not sit up expecting the result to hinge on Alaska. Go to bed.

flogen

That's very handy alright, really breaks down what to expect over the course of the night/morning, and what each result would mean.

Of course, by 6am we could just have a blurry result and the signs of weeks of lawsuits!

flogen

RE*AC*TOR

So flogen, you gonna stay up?

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

sceptre

This might be useful for the night owls happy to click the results boxes themselves and pretend they're Jon Snow.

Or this from Auntie if you don't want to enter your own predicted results.

(won't be staying up tonight due to an early start, though I managed to go the whole hog on (the first night of:)) the last one)

flogen

I'm sure I'll stay up at least some of the way. I'm up earlyish tomorrow and I have plenty to do so I'll need some sleep.. Might stay up with RTE, and go to bed when they switch off (at 3AM) and then get up at around 8 or 9 and see if things are done and dusted or up in the air.

you reactor?

flogen

RE*AC*TOR

Dunno, thinking of flicking between Sky News, and BBC. I don't know if I could get to sleep not knowing what's happening. But chances are it'll be slow with little happening for the most part.

klong

anything on the radio?

flogen

klong wrote:

anything on the radio?

I know that Morning Ireland is starting at 6AM, and Dunphy is starting at 6 or 6:30 but otherwise I wouldnt expect much. Most stations go to repeats at night (like newstalk which switches off at 10 or something). I think RTE will be doing the same. Your best bet for radio is BBC Radio 4, programmes start at 5:30 there, but over the course of the night they switch to BBC World Service... I'd be surprised if that didnt have any coverage.

Naturally you could always find a decent radio station in the US online, but good luck with that!

flogen

Memnoch

i'm going to sleep now, if bush wins i'd really rather not have wasted my sleep on it...

if kerry wins, well it will be a bright start to the morning :P

p.s. I think bush will win, hence my lack of optimism and desire to stay up :P

cranoo

who gives a fluck anyway ? :eek:

RE*AC*TOR

cranoo wrote:

who gives a fluck anyway ? :eek:

People responding to this thead.
What's your problem?

aidan_walsh

If ou had any sense, you would. Believe it or not but who sits behind Kennedy's desk is a global matter...

tammy

I fear a dull night ahead but it'll be worth it if Kerry does the business. :eek:
And I think he will given the surge in voters.

aidan_walsh

Latest: Indiana and Kentucky both have Bush ahead by a marginal lead so far, 55% and 52% respectively.

Watch all the action, loive.

Basq

Update:

Bush win projected in Indiana!

Bush: 55.5%
Kerry: 43.8%

Zaph

Early exit polls from slate.com

National
Kerry 51 Bush 48

Florida
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54 Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51 Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51 Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58 Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48 Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50 Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49 Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46 Bush 53

Other exit-poll results have arrived in more vague form, with Kerry leading Bush in New Hampshire but trailing him in Arizona and Louisiana.

Basq

zaph wrote:

Early exit polls from slate.com

Florida
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Heh... suprised they read anything off those "tricky Florida voting machines"!

GuanYin

First projected results Bush takes Georgia for 15 and Kerry takes Vermont for 3.

Basq

This will be quite a nerve-racking couple of hours.

It'll be real close!!..

GuanYin

Bush takes indiana for 8


23-3 to Bush

Tiriel

watchin rte1? "if Bush gets in it'll signify an endorsement of his actions"?

Basq

34 - 3 to Bush!

GuanYin

basquille wrote:

34 - 3 to Bush!

That includes Kentucky which is only a partial result but it will probably go that way.

[edit] Yup it did!

RE*AC*TOR

So far - as predicted. Ohio is the first big one...

Basq

syke wrote:

That includes Kentucky which is only a partial result but it will probably go that way.

Apologies... didn't consider that as a partial result!

Basq

Bush win now confirmed in Kentucky!

aidan_walsh

Remember, all of these are only projected results for the time being. Nothing is final yet. No states have formally called a result.

Basq

doodle_sketch wrote:

Remember, all of these are only projected results for the time being. Nothing is final yet. No states have formally called a result.

True.... but they are quite accurate, right?

RE*AC*TOR

basquille wrote:

True.... but they are quite accurate, right?

sort of, but unless its a clear margin I wouldn't bet my house

Victor

bobbyjoe wrote:

It is 7pm in the US eastern time zone and polls are closed in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.

Them sud'nars don't like to stay out after dark, do they?