Early Exit Polling shows Kerry ahead in almost all swing states

BattleBoar

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

Kerry up in all swing stated except Arizona, Colorado, and Wisconsin (tie there).

Very good sign though. If Kerry can win Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio, he has it won.

http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/ale04086.html

Tiriel

woo hoooo

fragile

Not much of an indicator really, didn't the guy with the most votes in the last US presedential election lose

BattleBoar

fragile wrote:

Not much of an indicator really, didn't the guy with the most votes in the last US presedential election lose

Yeah but he lost because he had a huge surplus of votes were in states that he already had won anyway (ie. California and New York). Kerry, at least at the beginning, *seems* to be carrying those swing states that he needs to win the overall election.

mike65

Would'nt get caried away yet, in fact I would'nt get carried away full stop. Kerry will be Bush with a kinder face.

Mike.

Sparks

Odd to see an early poll indicating a democratic lead, ususally it's the republicans who poll well early, isn't it?

BattleBoar

Sparks wrote:

Odd to see an early poll indicating a democratic lead, ususally it's the republicans who poll well early, isn't it?

Tis indeed Sparks...Kerry may win going away. Still, exit polls are notoriously sensitive, but it's a good sign.

Tiriel

mike65 wrote:

Would'nt get caried away yet, in fact I would'nt get carried away full stop. Kerry will be Bush with a kinder face.

Mike.

hope it's not true :mad: but yeah.. seems they're as bad as each other really!

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Memnoch

bush will win, don't "call" it. Exit polls don't mean much.

flogen

Memnoch wrote:

bush will win, don't "call" it. Exit polls don't mean much.

Thats quite a hypocritical statement to make, telling others not to call it while doing it yourself.

Overlooking the above polls, Kerry is said to be doing well. The BBC had a republican pollster on who said that the youth vote has come through, that women (termed "security mothers") had switched from Bush to Kerry and that the economy is looking to be a bigger issue than expected (an issue that Kerry leads vote-wise 4 to 1).
They had a Washington Correspondant on for a right wing newspaper too, and while he didn't mean it you would have been confused for thinking the election was won and everything the way he spoke, saying how Bush made some serious errors in his campaigning.

Its still all in the air folks, lets not get ahead of ourselves just yet. My hope is Kerry, and if the above is accurate then thats a plus, but in reality it could make no difference at all.

flogen

sceptre

flogen wrote:

The BBC had a republican pollster on who said... that the economy is looking to be a bigger issue than expected

Bah, no-one ever listens to me. About 24 months since I said here that in the absence of a clear and defined threat to the US or a clear and defined actual war that the economy would be a bigger issue than the Republicans ever predict. Not that the goppers monitor boards.ie for election insights mind you.

mike65

sceptre wrote:

Not that the goppers monitor boards.ie for election insights mind you.

The day that happens....

Mike.

OfflerCrocGod

mike65 wrote:

The day that happens....

We are all doomed! They'll listen to omnicorp and arcadegame2004 and the world will be flooded with negative karma.

TomF

I saw this thread just after I read a "Hmmm-inducing" column by Dick Morris. He thinks there is something fishy about the polls this election. I'd have to agree that the U.S. media were desperately trying to get Kerry elected. They may have failed; it looks at this point as though it's going to be a "double-dubbya". I think the result of it all in the U.S. is going to be an accelerated meltdown of respect for many newspapers and television network news organisations.

"That an exit poll is always right is an axiom of politics. It is easier to assume that a compass is not pointing north than to assume that an exit poll is incorrect. It takes a deliberate act of fraud and bias to get an exit poll wrong. Since the variables of whether or not a person will actually vote are eliminated in exit polling, it is like peeking at the answer before taking the test.

But these exit polls were wrong. And the fact that they were so totally, disastrously wrong is a national scandal. There should be a national investigation to unearth the story behind the bias.

In this election, we have seen CBS go with a story on Bush's National Guard service based on forged documents. We have seen the New York Times and CBS report 377 missing tons of explosives that were not missing, not that many tons and confiscated by American troops. And now we have seen exit polls that were wrong, quite possibly deliberately biased."

http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/31590.htm

bonkey

TomF wrote:

"That an exit poll is always right is an axiom of politics.

....which was shown to be utter bullsh1t as an axiom 4 years ago, but don't let that get in teh way of some good ol' Democrat-bashing.

jc

BattleBoar

Some major problems with those exit polls have surfaced. For example, in North Carolina, they had the popular vote being 69% women?! In Florida, they had the Latino numbers going down by a few percent when they actually went up by a few percent.

You know, a little 'does it make sense' check would go a long way for these exit polling agencies. :rolleyes: Sure got my hopes up for nothing...

Amnesiac_ie

Those exit polls were SO wrong.

It was weird last night... on an emotional level. At midnight as the exit polls were revealed it really felt like it was gearing up to be Kerry's night. The Democrats were smiling, the pundits were being asked how the world would differ with Kerry in the White House etc...

As the night progressed, it quickly became clear that the exit polls in the swinf states were unreliable and the 2002 pattern began to remerge.

By 3am our time, in just three hours the mood seemed to have shifted... for three hours I felt Kerry was going to win... and now it's all been taken away...