playing rushes

deeferdog

bit of advice for beginners...

if you feel lucky in your bones, or think that a certain hand or certain night may be yours, GO WITH IT...

i've been feeling cursed when i walk into the fitzwilliam and blessed in the merrion...

i bust out early on sunday's freeroll in foul humour, drove (not walked) around the cornor and proceeded to win (albeit with a slight chop up) my second tourney in two weeks (fri and sun) for a weeks profit of €1100.

i just knew i was going to win.

says alot for positive attitudes and all that.

best of lucky
jerome

Lafortezza

deeferdog wrote:

bit of advice for beginners...

if you feel lucky in your bones, or think that a certain hand or certain night may be yours, GO WITH IT...

Absolutely, any two cards will do, if you're ahead preflop you'll flop trips, if you're behind, you'll get a straight on the turn, no worries.

Nice one on the result in the merrion btw.

pokertroll

So Jerome, was it you that cracked the aces with 7 2 o/s with 4 to go?
Well done on the result,

MM

deeferdog

no i cracked the aces with 7 10 of clubs with 4 to go. Not nearly as bad as it sounds though.

Blinds are 3k 6k. i'm in the big blind. the button makes a minimium raise to 12k. small blind calls. I'm getting better than 5 to 1 on my call with 65k in chips so i decide to see the flop with suited connectors.

The flop comes 774. i recheck my cards just to be sure. Small blind checks, i bet 12k to tell everyone i have a seven. the button moves in. What the hell am i going to do? fold.? don't think so.

always happens with aces win a small one lose a big one. The button had absolutely no reason to push me off and force himself into a 11 to 1 shot. if he raises any morethan the minimium preflop and i'm absolutely going to fold my muck, but give me odds and i'll call. He might have been on a steal with ace seven and i would left happily.

it's all about context

Hectorjelly

The problem with Minimum raising is that you are giving nearly everyone odds to call with any half decent hand.

Hitman Actual

I'm curious about the statement "I was getting the odds to call". I'm not exactly saying you were wrong to call, the button should have raised more than the minimum, and it's not for much of your stack.

But what were you hoping to hit? (Exactly what you did hit, I suppose!). In general I think that these calls are marginal at best... you're just leaking away 10% of your stack. And that's assuming that you don't end up in a tricky position after the flop, and lose a lot more. What if you flop one (weak) pair, or the flush draw? Would you be happy to play for your full stack?

Fair enough, call me a tight-arsed rock, but in general I think these sort of calls get you in trouble. Do most of you guys call the pre-flop raise here?

DeVore

This is why we talk about +EV plays. A play is +EV if, should you repeat it 1,000 times in 1,000 games you will profit more then you lose. (thats a loose definition but I hope it gets the idea accross).

AK vs T7 is about 65%:35% in favour of AK. (rough figures). So when he single raises he has pot 3 chips into the pot (2 of his own, and one of yours for your BB).

Now you are wagering 1 chip more to win 4 + SB in return. By gamblers odds the pot is giving you 3 +SB back for 1 risked.

2 times in 3 you will lose. losing you 4 chips
1 in 3 times you will win. winning you 4 chips + sb

In crude terms this is a +EV play because over 30 hands you will profit 10 x Sb.

Now there are ALL SORTS of arguments against this logic... you should be considering your stack size in a tournie, you need to see all 5 cards to get the odds which you probably wont, etc etc etc... but thats what people mean when they say "they are getting the odds".

A more clear cut example comes when someone goes all in against you and you are the only person left to act.

Last night I was playing Omaha against Marq and through a series of rather optimistic bets the pot had risen to about 20k. I knew I was in trouble, I had naught but a flush draw (I think), giving me less then 20% on the river. Marq went all in for 2,600 iirc and despite knowing I was behind him and needed to hit, I called because 1 time in 5 I will hit and win ~20K. 4 times in 5 I will lose and thus lose a total of ~10K. Clearly it was +EV for me to call even though I am likely to be "throwing good money after bad"...

DeV.

Marq

quite a good example DeV. i played the hand quite badly after the flop, giving you the odds to call when I didn't need to. We both made a mistake on the flop - I bet too much, and you called. Had I bet something like 2,000, and kept five back, when the blank came off on fourth street i could have shoved all-in then, and with 13,000 in the pot, you would be asked for 5,000 more to catch your one in five shot. I think you might have passed there. As it was, after you had called for 4,500 on the flop, I had swelled the pot so much that you had to call with any kind of draw on the turn.

Lesson learned - great tournament for lessons actually. Like bluffing in Omaha. Christ it's fun.

Hitman Actual

OK, T7 isn't much of a dog against most hands, but like you say, this assumes that the flop, turn and river are dealt (with no more betting for your 5/1 odds). What I'm trying to get at is that most of the time, your T7 will be finished when the flop comes down (when you're the BB). A flush draw is hard to play here, and any pair you hit will be weak, more than likely with overcards on the flop. So unless you hit one of the big hands (2-pair up), your hand is either dead, or you're left in a very tricky spot.

I sometimes make these calls as well... but they often seem to end in trouble. And a couple of times I've heard a very experienced tournament player say that he loves to see other players weaken their stack like this.

mewso

Dev dont forget those odds are based on some kind of cast iron knowledge that your opponent has AK and indeed it was AA that the opponent had in this case.

DeVore

lenny, I'm somewhat like you alright, I tend to avoid taking these sort of "gamble" bets with ropey cards as I prefer to keep my gunpowder for when my guns are loaded so to speak!

Marq, quite true! I learned a good bit yesterday about Omaha and pot limit betting! I also agree that I think I should have dropped out on the flop, certainly to a big bet on the turn as I had nothing but a draw!
I dont recall the hand specifically but I dont remember thinking too long about the call on the flop. I have a vague recollection of calling very quickly because I had made up my mind to call a pot sized bet for some reason and wanted the extra folding equity if you check the turn (which I'd have bet, if you hadnt!).

I was jammy at the right times last night, right up until it was 5 handed... (and of course my appalingly badly played first hand! )

DeV.

DeVore

Indeed muso, there are a number of counter arguments to that "theory". I generally dont take those sorts of bets for several reasons but if they are suited connectors and I'm in the BB and only single raised, then I'll have a look because I'm last to act and I will know where I am on the flop and what my odds are from there.

If I'm short stacked I have two bets: Fold and All In.... limp calls are bad and can chip you away to the point where your ALL IN has little folding equity if you are short stacked.


DeV.

Waylander

I think it is also important to show that you are prepared to defend your blinds, otherwise someone will try to steal them every time. If someone keeps trying to steal your blinds, and you eventually make a call, they could be holding anything and you can not really put them on a hand.

Hectorjelly

lenny_leonard wrote:

OK, T7 isn't much of a dog against most hands, but like you say, this assumes that the flop, turn and river are dealt (with no more betting for your 5/1 odds). What I'm trying to get at is that most of the time, your T7 will be finished when the flop comes down (when you're the BB). A flush draw is hard to play here, and any pair you hit will be weak, more than likely with overcards on the flop. So unless you hit one of the big hands (2-pair up), your hand is either dead, or you're left in a very tricky spot.

I sometimes make these calls as well... but they often seem to end in trouble. And a couple of times I've heard a very experienced tournament player say that he loves to see other players weaken their stack like this.

Drawing hands are where most of the mistakes are made in poker, so theres no shame in folding, but if someone min raises me on the BB with AA and I have suited connectors they are begging to get busted. Im not going to go broke on this hand, but they might.

deeferdog

two big points made there

1. defending your blinds in a short handed situation.
2. knowing that if you call with 7 10 four handed you might be a big underdog and are delighted to see a flop with 774. I'd be equally delighted to see a flop with any picture card because i can fold with absolute impunity.

one other major mitigating factor in the hand was the fact that the guy in fourth only had about 12k infront of him. Anybody with any tourney savey will realize that post flop with the three big stacks involved i am not going to make any attempt to win the flop without a major advantage.

when someone is almost certainly going to be all-in in the next hand i'd definately fold aa with a blind betting into a danger flop. Remember i bet out after the flop signalling my intent. it wasn't like i took a pot shot to push the big stack around.

And as an aside the whole point of my initial post was that sometime you DO get a good feeling about a hand and that's the way my entire final table had played out.

In the end i talked my way into the lions share of the money with a three way deal in which i took more money. I capitilised on my good fortune and realised that i was pushing my luck. Made a deal when you are in a good situation and then take the risk out of the rest of the game.

BESIDES< I'm normally a marble rock at the table. anyone seeing me bet at a flop like that should pack up and go home if they can't read the signs.

pps even against AA my 10 7 suited is only 80/20 to loose
technially in this situation 10 7 suited is marginally (and i mean really marginally, less than 1%) better able to take on the big hand than pocket tens.

at worst i'm 4 to 1 and at AK it's 66/33 and if he's raising with 33 i'm even money. go on tell me i was wrong.

lesson learnt.... raise adequately with aces or they WILL blow up in your face

deeferdog

ps the best treatment of pocket aces in tournament play is in a book called
"Championship Tournament Practice Hands" by Tom Mc Evoy and T.J. Cloutier. An absolute must for any serious tournament player.

Hitman Actual

deeferdog wrote:

t
And as an aside the whole point of my initial post was that sometime you DO get a good feeling about a hand and that's the way my entire final table had played out.

Yeah, I know that was your point... sorry for getting off-topic but the hand interested me! And there have been enough replies to convince me that folding to the min raise in your situation is too weak.

But... originally something was really bothering me about what you said, and it was the implication that because you were getting 5/1 pot odds on a call that was at worst 4/1, calling was the right move. I think this is only correct if:
1. You're 6K is an all-in call in the 36K pot, or
2. By some miracle you get to see all 5 cards with no more betting.

But because there's more money, and more cards to come, the play on the flop and beyond defines the EV of your call. For example, ignoring the flush and straight possibilities (because it gets too damn complicated!), 68% of the time you miss the flop and (probably) will be forced to fold. 29% of the time you will flop a pair, but often you will still have to fold. The other 3% of the time you will hit 2-pair or better, but a certain percentage of these times you will still lose to a better hand.

The flush and straight possibilities obviously change these figures, but will it be a call with +EV? I'm not sure. (And I think working out the EV here is tough because there will be so many variables to take into account).

Anyway, my point is that your immediate pot odds don't necessarily make a call correct. A better example is the flush draw with 2 cards to come- you might be 1.9/1 to make your flush, but you might still have to put more money in the pot on the turn, with worse odds. Sklansky covers all this in TOP, immediate odds v effective odds.

Apologies if my posts are "marginal at best", but I've been really lazy over the technical aspects of poker lately, and this board has got my interest up again

DeVore

well you also have to consider the implied odds if you DO catch that card on the river (or even turn!).

If your enemy is deep stacked and aggressive you might clean him out with your flush. If you call a decent raise he might NOT put you on a flush draw and when it comes he might disregard it! the pay off might be enormous!

Simple pot odds occur when someone is all in and you know what you are being asked for and the total of what you will win. Implied pot odds (that Sklansky talks about) happen when you both still have chips (preferably lots them!) and also preferably when you have position so as to make the most of your flush! You are hoping that you will get paid a lot more then the pot at the time when you make the initial call!.

I've done this once or twice and really made a killing!

One decent example is stealth trips... so you are on the button and 5 people call round to you. You have pocket 3's. You can either drop them (euwww!!!) raise it substantially (dangerous and negative) or you can call.

You're odds of flopping a set or better are a little better then 8:1
You are being asked for 1 chip to win 6.5 currently. Not good pot odds but I'll call here everytime! Why?... cos on the flop I know where I am and I drop the hand if it doesnt improve.
On the other hand if it DOES improve, I'm sitting there quietly with a monster and I'm going to profit a *whole* lot more then 8 chips! If there was a raise to 3xBB I would drop them unless it was very very early on in the tournie.

Irish players are extremely aggressive and you can expect that someone is going to have a shot at the pot! While you might lose to someone ELSE who has flopped a higher set, its quite an improbable outcome. one time in 8 you'll get paid big time with stealth sets!

DeV.

Hectorjelly

lenny_leonard wrote:

The flush and straight possibilities obviously change these figures, but will it be a call with +EV? I'm not sure. (And I think working out the EV here is tough because there will be so

Your playing for Flushes or Straights, obvioulsy 2 pair of trips would be ok but thats not what your looking for. The call will be + EV if you play well post flop, and - EV if you play badly post flop.

Hitman Actual

Hectorjelly wrote:

Your playing for Flushes or Straights, obvioulsy 2 pair of trips would be ok but thats not what your looking for. The call will be + EV if you play well post flop, and - EV if you play badly post flop.

Well, if you include the amount of times that you have to fold your hand on the flop, that could be a lot of 6Ks lost that you have to make up with good post-flop play.

And ditto for your implied odds... I'm assuming that you get to double up your stack with your good hands. I'm not disputing what you guys are saying, but will it be enough to make the play +EV.

Just how hard is it to calculate the EV in this situation?

DeVore

And ditto for your implied odds... I'm assuming that you get to double up your stack with your good hands. I'm not disputing what you guys are saying, but will it be enough to make the play +EV.

Just how hard is it to calculate the EV in this situation?

Therein lies the skill in poker. :^/




DeV.

Hectorjelly

lenny_leonard wrote:

Well, if you include the amount of times that you have to fold your hand on the flop, that could be a lot of 6Ks lost that you have to make up with good post-flop play.

And ditto for your implied odds... I'm assuming that you get to double up your stack with your good hands. I'm not disputing what you guys are saying, but will it be enough to make the play +EV.

Just how hard is it to calculate the EV in this situation?

I think it will be +EV for good players. Can I prove it? No, there are too many variables. If your liable to call big bets with just a flush draw then its not a good idea to get in situations like this.

A rule of thumb is that if you can get into a pot with someone with a speculative hand like 10 7s for 10% or less of the smaller of the two stacks its a good deal. Any bigger % and its not really worth it. In this case it almost exactly 10%.


There are other reasons to call as well, as waylander alluded to, you cant start getting pushed around by minimum raises.