Snow!! - is this a joke??

yoyoyo

http://www.weathercheck.net/7dayire

Please tell me its true

djpaul

Could it be true?? Bring it on, bring it on

mike65

Ah Christy nooooooooo! Some of us have to go out to work and stuff!

Mike.

yoyoyo

Well I only got one snow shower last year so i
really dont think i'll be getting proper snow this
early in the season

We can always hope

And hats off to them if they get it right !!!

I'm with Mike on this one,snow in november is not welcome with me.

Bring it on in january and december but november -no thanks.

That said , it is going to get remarkably cold for the time of year at the end of the week.
As for showers in a northerly? Take a trip over to Snowdonia in wales for what the Irish sea has to offer in those circumstances or otherwise , the further north you are from north leinster , north connaught and obviously Ulster northwards and the higher the ground the better.
South of that line expect hard frosts and clear blue skies.
If the wind moves northwest, then add in atlantic coasts and for wintry stuff, the feed of air , even though the wind is north west , west or south west would still have to be from polar regions.

That said it's still too early.

Supercell

yoyoyo wrote:

http://www.weathercheck.net/7dayire

Please tell me its true

The chances of this are 0.000000000000000000000000000000000001% , honestly hope the author of the site is posting such a forecast as a joke.

billy the squid

Bring it on, help kill all the germs in the air.

Best to have the snow in november and get it over with.

Healio

Hate to be so pessimistic, but it is a 5-day forecast, and weather can change.

DonkeyStyle \o/

It WILL snow... I guarentee it*.
Certainly cold enough for it.



*Not a guarentee.

DMC

From Met Éireann today...

"Some sunny intervals to follow on Thursday, but showers will become frequent; the showers blustery with falls of hail possible, and sleet on the high ground. Strong northwest winds on Thursday will ease off to allow a sharp night frost on Thursday night."

More like it.

yoyoyo

Oh God

He's at it again

http://www.weathercheck.net/ireland

Something must be up :eek: ??

mike65

Excitiable chap is'nt he? A more sober site gives minimum temps of zero on Thursday night rather than -8!

Mike.

He is getting a wee bit carried away.
The sensible guys at the BBC have just done their "countryfile" forecast for the week.

Ok Day time temps across Scotland and the North of England by Friday and Saturday will be around 3 or 4 degree's with some wintry shower activity.
Snow doesn't settle very well for long , if at all ,at that kind of temperature at sea level.
Indeed its usually sleety wet stuff if it is snow, but its it's more likely to be freezing rain at sea level.

Over here they are showing a ridge of High pressure so very little shower activity and with a slight North west drift , that means any activity is way up North.
There will be lots of night frost though which will probably persist in places in the daytime out of the sun.
I'm not expecting any snow here by the look of that forecast.

Mind you I've never put any faith in five day forecasts mother nature is too unpredictable.
48 hrs is my rule of thumb for reasonable accuracy, anything more than that out to a week is imho indicative of the trend only and with a dash of salt.

Supercell

10CM in Dublin would be great on Thursday..long weekend !!
Somewhat more likely, at best we might get a bit of sleety stuff briefly and that will be it.

Paddy20

Ballybofey,

Greyish sorta sky, the type that brings snow Imho, and mild enough as well. Never get snow when it is bitterly cold !, I like snow, so {All together now}: Let it Snow, let it snow, let it snow... as the song goe's, I think ?...

P.

yoyoyo

The lads still going for it

http://www.weathercheck.net/7dayire


Crazy

PH01

"Is Winter Coming???......."

Answer: Ammmm, YES, duh!

ando

DonkeyStyle \o/ wrote:

It WILL snow... I guarentee it*.

*Not a guarentee.

LoL

Supercell

yoyoyo wrote:

The lads still going for it

http://www.weathercheck.net/7dayire


Crazy

Well you gotta love the lads passion " Stay tuned as Forecasts will fly in through the day we are now 65% Confident of this scenario coming off!" ....

I'm about 0.0000000000000000000000000000000065% confidant it will come off

But nice site, nice picture on the home page, i like snow too..but all the wishfull thinking doesnt make it so

Matt M , we salute you...hope it happens ..:)

yoyoyo

www.weathercheck.net

He's still going for snow with the possiblilty
for some prolonged stuff as rain spreads north

yoyoyo

Weathercheck have issued a weather-watch..for snow

www.weathercheck.net

Healio

check his snow cast it totally contradicts his forecast.

ninebeanrows

Hi All its me the owner of the site i got an email from yoyoyo

My Forecasts are based on Model updates of various
weather outlook models which update regularly
through-out the day

Avail here www.weathercheck.net/modelsire

My Gut feeling is that Ulster could really suffer
tomorrow from heavy snow and this will affect
north Leinster too.

Its all based on very cold air moving south

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.gif


What is now becoming more certain is that Ulster
can expect accumalations of snow to low-levels
through tomorrown evening with 10cm's likely
in places
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn482.gif

But what is interesting is a front which develops with the
cold air and swings south over Ireland as seen in these
UKMO Fax Charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

This chart is very nice with the cold air fully
controlling Ireland this nice trough lies over
the country which could produce some
appreciable snow for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

We can still not be 100% confident as of yet to what
will occur but things are looking very interesting for
tomorrow and i'll gladly keep you informed
if you would like

Supercell

Great site Weathercheck, if a little sensationalist
I think you may be reading those charts through rose tinted glasses tho, maybe some inland areas of NIreland will see some sleety stuff..but really dont think there will much more than that, at least from the frontal stuff unless you live on top of a mountain that is - the 528 dam never really makes much progress into the ROI.

The showers post front may indeed give some proper snow showers (again most likely in inland NIreland areas), but i'll eat my hat if Dublin sees anything bar a bit of sleet..and even then am highly doubtful, that said there would be no-one more happy than me to say I was wrong

Great site, hope you keep it maintained during the winter months as no doubt we are overdue a decent snowfall here !!

ninebeanrows

Well All i can say is whoaa!

Now now all you doubters a polar low
has formed and the weather world
is in chaos.

Expect Sleet or Snow
in the following
locations:

North Connacht, Ulster, North Midland, North Leinster(south to Wicklow)

I expect accumalations of upto 10cm in places especially
across mid Ulster ..........enjoy

Gonzo

we had a heavy snow shower in meath today but it turned back to rain, it never stuck at any stage either as it was just way too wet

ninebeanrows

Just to show im not mad Heres a pic
of snow in Central England just 1 hour
ago

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Just to show im not mad Heres a pic
of snow in Central England just 1 hour
ago

Nice for them..wheres our promised 10cm snow ?

ninebeanrows

Did i promise 10cm's???

Anywaz last night was abit
disappointing but Northern Ireland
did see 1 or 2cm's of snow

What im looking at now is the band of rain
moving in from the west if it spreads
far enough north it will fall as snow keep an
eye on this after last hights disaster for
Ireland you wont believe me but i expect
the Midlands to see some accumalations later
tonight and into tomorrow morning

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Did i promise 10cm's???

Yes

Anywaz last night was abit disappointing but Northern Ireland
did see 1 or 2cm's of snow

Yeah on the hills on the north and east coast.
10 cm's in mid ulster and north leinster was a very far fetched prediction.

I'm in Wicklow and looking straight out at a 3000ft mountain and theres not a flake of snow on it nora mind 10 cms in mid ulster or north leinster

What im looking at now is the band of rain

Yes and thats what it will be, preceded by some sleet maybe or wet snow on hills, turning back to rain again quite quickly as it's chased by the feed of warm air from the south west.
Nothing to get excited about.

Always in black

I HATE WINTER! :eek: :eek:

ninebeanrows

Knock Airport and Bellmullet now reporting Snow!!

Dublin will see some precipatation soon but
of what kind........???

ninebeanrows

Reprts coming in of Widspread snow in Mayo and the Midlands with Accumalations nearing 5cm in Mayo

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Knock Airport and Bellmullet now reporting Snow!!

Dublin will see some precipatation soon but
of what kind........???

That conflicts with met Éireanns report for 8pm from Bellmullet which reports light rain...

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

That conflicts with met Éireanns report for 8pm from Bellmullet which reports light rain...

Light rain at Belmullet now, but was snow showers at 1900 with temp at 2C

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

Light rain at Belmullet now, but was snow showers at 1900 with temp at 2C

yup which is (a) what Met Éireann were forecasting ie rain preceded by sleet or snow and (b) is a far cry from 10 cm's or 5cm's which weather check was getting over excited about.

On a side note, weatherchecks negative rep and comments about me being disrespectfull to him on this thread and have been noted by the moderator of this board ie me
Accuracy is a crucial element in trusting weather forecasting and getting carried away with outlandish predictions, a few hours away from the period forecasted only serves to take from the credibility of future forecasts from that source.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Reprts coming in of Widspread snow in Mayo and the Midlands with Accumalations nearing 5cm in Mayo

No there isnt..show me a metar that proves this ?

With respect Weathercheck ...these sensationalist reports really need to be clarified with some kind of fact.

Fact is ...it snowed in Ireland..yes in some very high hills in the north yesterday...as the charts also predicted....but apart from that there was no 10-15 cm's of snow anywhere in the country north or south..

Its great to see someone interested and posting their predictions..but please do so with a modicum of reality..the Irish met office were bang on with their predictions, ie rain with some sleet/snow in hilly areas in the north.

As to heavy snow tonight... http://www.met.ie/forecasts/ >> "Cloudier in the west and southwest with rain and sleet becoming widespread and some falls of snow on higher ground" looks about right..

There was no polar low, there was not 10-15 cm's anywhere "you wont believe me but i expect
the Midlands to see some accumalations later
tonight and into tomorrow morning" you are right i dont believe you. It will sleet at best ...maybe Knock will see something (again prolly nothing settling).

Its nice to dream of such weather..but this is an Irish board read by mainly Irish people ..showing pictures of snow in England to prove a point is just daft..they ALWAYS will get more snow than us in such situations..might as well say it snowed on Ben Nevis therefore my prediction was vindicated..it wasnt.

The Irish met office has so far being excellant, they forcasted rain with a bit of sleet last night..which was exactly what happened. in Dublin/North Leinster were were not even close to getting snow..the Wicklow MOUNTAINS didnt even get any snow...

I hope you do post forecasts on your site, they make great reading, but please do be realistic...

DMC

Weathercheck wrote:

Just to show im not mad Heres a pic
of snow in Central England just 1 hour
ago

With all due respect, if you have been so accurate with the weather, how are we to believe you that that picture is of today and of Central England?

I have a feeling someone is trying to make us purchase a small dog!

ninebeanrows

A number of photos of snow in that thread

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?whichpage=3&ARCHIVEVIEW=&TOPIC_ID=32568

also

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=32569&whichpage=1&ARCHIVE=



And i've admitted my forecast for yesterday was a disaster!

Although tonight we have seen some snow and infact
Metcheck have issued a snow warning for Dublin

http://www.metcheck.com/severe.asp

Johnny_the_fox

This is what is was like this morning - in mid-ulster.
about 5mm of snow.

sorry for the poor picture (mobile phone).

ninebeanrows

And yes their was snow in Bellmullet at six o'clock and in
Knock and reports on UKWW from Ireland

http://www.wunderground.com/global/IE.html

Look dont Judge

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

A number of photos of snow in that thread

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?whichpage=3&ARCHIVEVIEW=&TOPIC_ID=32568

also

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=32569&whichpage=1&ARCHIVE=



And i've admitted my forecast for yesterday was a disaster!

Although tonight we have seen some snow and infact
Metcheck have issued a snow warning for Dublin

http://www.metcheck.com/severe.asp

Nice forum , might start reading that
The metcheck warning ...dont believe it ...have a look at http://www8.landings.com/cgi-bin/parse_wthr_script.pl?pass=12345&apt_id=EIDW&type=METAR
the dewpoints just dont support snow, in fact as soon as any cloud comes overhead they jump up..thus the non commercial , non official 'cast from me is sleety rain (probabiliy ~30%) in Dublin followed by rain.

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

And yes their was snow in Bellmullet at six o'clock and in
Knock and reports on UKWW from Ireland

http://www.wunderground.com/global/IE.html

Look dont Judge

The reported temp at that time was 2c !! there was no 5cm settling snow in 2c !!!

ninebeanrows

yes longfield but there was further inland

Snow now reported in Laois

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=32598&whichpage=6&ARCHIVE=

Supercell

Longfield wrote:

The reported temp at that time was 2c !! there was no 5cm settling snow in 2c !!!

In fairness to Weathercheck , i suppose i should show the recent TAFs for Dublin airport..they do highlight the uncertainty with the current scenario..basically it says we might get snow ..we might get rain ..we might get sleet...logic and past experience says its probably rain...
Here are the most recent official TAFs for Dublin airport.. they really do show the leval of uncertainty atm.

EIDW 192100Z 192207 23005KT 9999 FEW020 BKN080 PROB30 TEMPO 0407 5000 -RASN -SN BKN010 BKN030 BECMG 0507 15008KT =
EIDW 191600Z 200018 VRB03KT 9999 FEW020 BKN100 PROB30 TEMPO 0003 0400 FG SCT001 BECMG 0305 15006KT SCT018 BKN040 PROB30 TEMPO 0407 5000 -RASN BECMG 0709 14010KT SCT010 BKN018 BECMG 1113 5000 -RA SCT005 BKN010 TEMPO 1318 3000 SCT003 BKN005 =

Johnny_the_fox

P.S.


There was just enough snow this evening to make a snowman.



not much... (note the 2p Coin) *again sorry for the poor picture
:eek:

billy the squid

Well credit where it is due, he did predict snow and it came, come on it is not like he pulled a michael fish (1987 storm ) and got it completely wrong, The as the problem with forcasting, it tends to change like the weather.

we had a brief snow shower in Limerick just before midnight btw

raining now though

Sarky

There was a short fall of snow here in Galway around midnight too. It quickly turned to sleet and then rain, and didn't last a second on the ground. But I saw snow. It's a start...

Lafortezza

At Dublin Airport tonight/this morning there was about 2.5mm of snow between 0300 and 0600. Was quite heavy for a while (sky was obscured, no cloud detected on ceilometer), none of it was sticking though.
Temperature was around 0 degrees.
Has just turned to sleet now.

billy the squid

Actually quite early in the year for snow in my opinion. It snows here once every three or four years and it hasnt snowed in Limerick in november for as long as I can remember. This could be a good omen, winter is far from over, we are only 21 days into it.

Sarky

Where shall we have the Boards.ie Snowball Fight?