Ukraine on the brink of civil war or just a dodgy moment?

mike65

from bbc

Ukraine cities defy poll result

Yushchenko supporters have also been rallying in the city of Lviv
Officials in several Ukrainian cities have refused to accept the outcome of Sunday's presidential election.

Tens of thousands of protesters have rallied to contest the official victory for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, amid Western concern over the vote.

Opposition challenger Viktor Yushchenko has told supporters to stage a civil disobedience campaign.

But central security authorities are warning that they are ready to put down any lawlessness "quickly and firmly".

"We appeal to the organisers of mass protests to assume responsibility for their possible consequences," the prosecutor general and the interior ministry said in a statement.

The central electoral commission said that, with more than 99% of the vote counted, Mr Yanukovych had 49.4% support while Mr Yushchenko had 46.7%


But the opposition says it has recorded many thousands of irregularities - including very high turnouts in government strongholds.

By late evening on Monday, thousands of opposition supporters had left Kiev's Independence Square after demonstrating for more than 12 hours. But several hundred people planned to spend the night in tents in the area.

The opposition told people come back on Tuesday morning for a protest outside parliament, when MPs are due to discuss the contested election result.

'Splitting Ukraine

Mr Yushchenko, seen as the pro-Western candidate, earlier told his supporters in the capital not to leave their rally "until victory".

"We are launching an organised movement of civil resistance," he said, denouncing what he called the "total falsification" of the vote, which followed days of acrimonious wrangling over the results of the first round.


Kiev city council refused to recognise the results, and urged parliament to follow suit.

Thousands of people also turned onto the streets in the western city of Lviv, where the city council said it would only take orders from Mr Yushchenko.

Three other cities in opposition strongholds in western Ukraine have said they considered the opposition candidate the legal president.

The city councils' move is likely to be seen as a symbolic moral victory for the opposition - although the councils have much less power than the central authorities, observers say.

However, Mr Yanukovych called for national unity and criticised the call for public protests.

"This small group of radicals has taken upon itself the goal of splitting Ukraine," he said in comments reported by AP news agency.

'Concerted' fraud

Observers for the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said Sunday's run-off vote fell far short of European democratic norms.

The organisation, which also reported serious irregularities in the first round, said violations included a continuing "media bias" in favour of Mr Yanukovych and intimidation of observers and voters.


The US' official observer, Senator Richard Lugar, alleged "concerted and forceful" fraud and the EU called on Ukraine to review the election.

However, Moscow, which backed Prime Minister Yanukovych, recognised the result.

Exit polls earlier suggested that Mr Yushchenko had been on course for victory with a lead of at least six percentage points.

His supporters say they do not believe the official turnout figure of 96% in eastern Ukraine.

During the campaign, Mr Yushchenko, prime minister between 1999 and 2001, claimed to have been the victim of intimidation and dirty tricks, including an alleged poisoning attempt.

His critics portray him as an American puppet who will do anything to gain power, including inciting civil unrest.

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=1482119&PageNum=0

With the result of the Ukriane presidential elections being contested the scene might be set for the sort of peoples revolution that we saw across the old Warsaw Pact. Maybe the protests will fizzle if the government acts tough and holds its nerve but even if the Ukraine does'nt explode now there seems to be the seeds of trouble ahead, with the EU and Moscow heading for a showdown as the former looks to increase its influence in the states that border its new members and Moscow gets worried about its loss of influence in same area. Watch this space....

Mike.


Mike.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

arcadegame2004

The eagerness of the Russians to endorse the 'election' of Yanuckyvch adds further weight to earlier criticism by me on this forum of the direction of Russia under Putin. He has to side with the winner of Ukraine's rigged-elections, who is part of a government implicated in the killing and intimidation of journalists and which is trying to close down the only remaining pro-Opposition TV Channel, because after all, recent events have shown that Putin himself is remarkably intolerant of media criticism of himself within Russia. Putin and Yanuckyvych are just different members of the same category of politician, and I don't mean that flatteringly.

I think that the Ukrainian people have the right to fight for their democracy. If that means civil war, then that is the government's fault for declaring war on that democracy.

TomF

It all makes me wonder if Russia under Putin is any different at all than the USSR. I find it peculiar that there is such little reaction on this politics board to the shenanigans in Ukraine.

mike65

TomF wrote:

It all makes me wonder if Russia under Putin is any different at all than the USSR. I find it peculiar that there is such little reaction on this politics board to the shenanigans in Ukraine.

(12 hrs later) you and me both mate....I'm beginning to think we need a Iraq/Bash USA sub-board.

Mike.

Memnoch

the situation going on in ukraine is really messed up at the moment...

definately seems like something very dodgy is going on with those elections.

Its intersting how one minute russia are america's best friends, and the next they are both again on opposite sides in a seeming "proxy war" for governmental control of another country, seems very cold war esqe.

If it was only the US making noise about this election I wouldn't give a hoot ( considering their recent record in venezuela). However in this case its a lot more than just the US.

and also its started to get redundant the way every time any political issue other than iraq is posted people start whinging about how it isn't being given as much significance. That statement on its own means absolutely nothign whatsover, so please stop constantly re-iterating it as if its some great and wonderous revelation.

shotamoose

Having watched this develop over a few days, I'm a tad worried at today's developments, i.e. Yushchenko symbolically declaring himself President in front of his party MPs in a parliamentary session boycotted by the ruling party. It seems likely that Yushchenko was defrauded out of victory, but as far as I can see Yanuckyvch genuinely has very substantial support, even if a minority. Yushchenko and his supporters need to be careful if they don't want to split the country along East-West lines.

Which brings me onto a complaint about the media coverage. The BBC coverage I've seen, for example, has focused entirely on developments in Kiev, which overwhelmingly supports Yushchenko. But most of the East apparently supports Yunuckyvch. Mass protests make good tv, but I'd love to get a better idea of what the rest of the country thinks.

I find it peculiar that there is such little reaction on this politics board to the shenanigans in Ukraine.

Which is precisely the kind of remark that makes me not want to post on the topic. A little less self-righteousness would be nice ...

mike65

Memnoch wrote:

Its intersting how one minute russia are america's best friends, and the next they are both again on opposite sides in a seeming "proxy war" for governmental control of another country, seems very cold war esqe.

Its a proxy between Moscow and the EU not the US (though naturally they have an interest). The EU has pumped billions into the region through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Devlopment (EBRA) and are not surprisingly concerned that they are not wasting thier time and our money by in effect proping up a government that should'nt be there.

The "opposition" has a clear ambition to steer Ukraine towards associate membership of the EU at the very least and this is freaking out Putin at al who know that the Ukraine is the most desirable of the old USSR states with its climate, natural resources and access to the Med. Actually if you want to know why the country is so important just read this

http://www.ebrd.com/about/strategy/index.htm

Mike.

OfflerCrocGod

mike65 wrote:

(12 hrs later) you and me both mate....I'm beginning to think we need a Iraq/Bash USA sub-board

I'm sorry but what the hell do you want us to say???? I've been watching the election in Ukraine for quite a while now and am fully aware of the tampering the goverment is up to, but there is really very little for us to comment on! I am of course hoping that the democratically elected leader gets into power I do want to see a western facing Ukraine even if it means violence. As of now though the goverment is not acting and there is really not much for us to say/comment on. This bash US crap is really beginning to piss me off, there are major happenings in Iraq daily what do you want us to do? Ignore them? Iraq is by far the most interesting thing going on in international politics right now, live with it.

Sand

I dont think this corrupt result will stand for long, if the result is shown to lack sufficient credibility and popularity then there is a fairly good chance that the people and more importantly the institutions of state will simply ignore Yanukovych and leave him unable to govern. The days when the East european dictators could count on the Red Army arriving to help put down opposition is long gone.

I wonder if the EU would be correct to refuse to deal with Yanuks government if they dont feel his election met international standards?

As for the Russians - whats to be expected these days? Under Putin theyve swung dangerously from a fledgling democracy beset with problems into a sick and failing democracy and even more dangerously Putin is encouraging the spread of that particular disease. It demonstrates clearly there is more to a successful democracy than holding elections, something that could be a lesson in other arenas.

I'm beginning to think we need a Iraq/Bash USA sub-board.

I think we already have one to be honest.

This bash US crap is really beginning to piss me off, there are major happenings in Iraq daily what do you want us to do? Ignore them? Iraq is by far the most interesting thing going on in international politics right now, live with it.

Sorry offler, its just the creeping suspiscion that a large proportion of threads are linked by the fact that they provide opportunities to bash American foreign policy, domestic policy, society, culture and ideals.

Any threads that deal with world affairs stand a far higher chance of being "busy" if they somehow involve American wrong doing. As an example, look up that Chavez thread I posted a week or two ago about Chavez weakening the institutions of state and packing the courts with his polical allies which brought criticism from Human Rights Watch. Im not sure if a single poster issued even slight concerns over this - instead they detailed the real and imagined sins of the US and the opposition, justifiying steps that would have them up in arms if Bertie tried it here.

Redleslie2

Sand wrote:

look up that Chavez thread I posted a week or two ago about Chavez weakening the institutions of state and packing the courts with his polical allies which brought criticism from Human Rights Watch..

Strange that Sand seems to be concerned with the health of Venezuelan democracy but was silent about the murder of the state prosecutor. His refusal to comment is obviously tantamount to approval of such actions.

seamus

mike65 wrote:

(12 hrs later) you and me both mate....I'm beginning to think we need a Iraq/Bash USA sub-board.

I think unfortunately the majority of posters (I'm going to include myself in that group) treat politics similarly to football - don't go out of their way to be interested in it, and only watch and comment when Ireland (or the USA in the case of Politics) are playing.


I do need to go read up more on these things.

OfflerCrocGod

Sand wrote:

Sorry offler, its just the creeping suspiscion that a large proportion of threads are linked by the fact that they provide opportunities to bash American foreign policy, domestic policy, society, culture and ideals.

Most of the big US threads deal with the US taking over another country and the huge price the US and Iraq are paying for this. Another aspect is that this is something which has been going on for quite a long time and many people have more to say about it/know more about the situation then any of the other international stories posted in this forum. Let's put it bluntly Iraq is in the middle of a war which could shape the future of the Middle-East, Ukraine.....faces it's development being stunted for a couple of more years. It's pretty obvious which story is going to generate more interest. Violence & Sex sell Sand, peaceful protests againts a fraud who to this moment is not doing much doesn't really sell that well.

Sand wrote:

Any threads that deal with world affairs stand a far higher chance of being "busy" if they somehow involve American wrong doing. As an example, look up that Chavez thread I posted a week or two ago about Chavez weakening the institutions of state and packing the courts with his polical allies which brought criticism from Human Rights Watch. Im not sure if a single poster issued even slight concerns over this - instead they detailed the real and imagined sins of the US and the opposition, justifiying steps that would have them up in arms if Bertie tried it here.

That Chavez thread got 2 pages of replies and 400 views, that is not that bad for a minor* story. Also to be fair you did - if I remember correctly - actually start the thread attacking people who attacked the US and it's interfering in the country and those who supported Chavez, what other kind of replies were you expecting? You looked for those replies and now you're surprised you got them?!


*yes it is - get over it, corruption in some Latin American country is not some thing new/amazing.

chill

Looks liek they are indeed on the brink of something... teetering... on the fence.... finely balanced... etc etc etc

You have to admire the people though, and I do tremendously. It's snowing all day and they are sticking with it. More power to them.

gandalf

mike65 wrote:

(12 hrs later) you and me both mate....I'm beginning to think we need a Iraq/Bash USA sub-board.

Mike.

Nope not the case with me. I really only took an interest in this in the last few days when all the major media outlets started reporting it. I am waiting to see what happens.

If someone said to me that the Ukraine would be on the brink of a civil war 2 weeks ago I would have laughed at them I honestly didn't think they could have gotten themselves in this situation but now they could possibly go in this direction. It all depends on the what the security services do now.

I will comment further on this when things become clearer.

Redleslie2

I'm concerned that the hippies haven't been teargassed and beaten yet. Mob rule must not be allowed to triumph. :mad: I heard the miners are on the government side and are going to march somewhere. Hippies v Miners and Robocops, no contest.

gandalf

Well I am sure Sty News are rubbing their hands with the thought that things could get violent. After all Iraq is so yesterday :rolleyes:

Superman

gandalf wrote:

Well I am sure Sty News are rubbing their hands with the thought that things could get violent. After all Iraq is so yesterday :rolleyes:

couldn't of said it better myself! sky news is the definition of tripe! unless of couse you have a serious interest in the royal family/david beckams bowel movements.
I can't believe they get away with callin it news!, I've started to only trust euronews, better safe than sorry.

solas

seems to be passing off as something of a velvet revolution to me, it did get my attention but I think it seems to be a positive thing rather than a negative thing.

chill

solas wrote:

seems to be passing off as something of a velvet revolution to me, it did get my attention but I think it seems to be a positive thing rather than a negative thing.

I don't know accurate it is but Newsnight and ITN news seem to give the people far less than a 50% chance. They suggest the clampdown will come tonight in tomorrow and the sutters on democracy will come down. Ukraine is highly polaried between the euro orientated western region and the russo orientated Eastern region. The decent people of Ukraine have spent two days in the street and I pray they get what they deserve... what we have enjoyed for all of our lives.

Redleslie2

I think I saw that eurovision winning stomping lovely lady Ruslana standing beside Yushchenko. I'm on whatever side she's on.

vinnyfitz

The excellent group blog fist full of euros is covering it well and linking to a range of other commentators including several on the spot bloggers.

mike65

With the Supreme Court having made the unexpected decsicion not to declare a winner and now the parliament declaring the result "invalid" means the chances of fresh elections being held are much improved. The Supreme Court meets again on Monday to hear an appeal by the opposition leader, Victor Yushchenko.

Mike.

SkepticOne

Redleslie2 wrote:

I think I saw that eurovision winning stomping lovely lady Ruslana standing beside Yushchenko. I'm on whatever side she's on.

Indeed, this alone should be sufficient for most people. Why do people insist on dragging politics into everything?

Interesting also about the sign-language interpreter exposing lies ordered by the ruling party from the blog link by Vinnyfitz.

On Channel 1 (UT-1), the main state channel, 237 journalists are on strike now. Today, during the 11 am newscast with live translation into the Sign Language, the translator, Natalya Dmytruk, did not translate what the host was saying about the election results, but said (in Sign Language) the following (quote via Ukrainska Pravda):

"The results from the Central Election Commission have been falsified. Do not believe them. Our President is Yushchenko. I am very disgusted that I was forced to translate the lies until now. I'm not going to do it anymore. I'm not sure if I'll see you again."

The program Dmytruk was translating into Sign Language for is the only news program in Ukraine adapted for people with hearing impairments. The audience is about 100,000 people. Dmytruk has now joined her 237 striking colleagues.

Superman

Uprisings just' aint what they used to be! where are the frantic black and white pictures of people looting and pillaging

SkepticOne

Superman wrote:

Uprisings just' aint what they used to be! where are the frantic black and white pictures of people looting and pillaging

What about Iraq? Tanks on the streets and everything. Just turn down the colour on your telly. Used to be you could rely on the East Europeans for this sort of thing.

Superman

true, true I stand corrected.
but I miss the good ol' days when you could go to the savoy and catch the latest news from the caucauses about the various rebellions etc, those were the days :rolleyes:

TomF

Just read the Internet that Yuschenko's wife is American. Earlier I read an article that claimed the peaceful revolutions happening in these eastern European countries are being organised by their American embassy staff who are importing youthful experts on regime destabilization. Where will it all end? :eek:

mike65

Parliament votes to bring down government

In parliament, 229 MPs - three more than required - voted in favour of sacking Mr Yanukovych as prime minister and creating an interim government.

It was the second attempt to pass the no-confidence motion after Tuesday's session ended without agreement.

Our correspondent says the government will not automatically be dismissed now the resolution has been passed, as this requires the signature of the president.

Forcing through the dissolution without presidential approval would require a larger majority: two-thirds of MPs, or 301 votes.

However, the decision certainly has symbolic significance and keeps up the pressure on Mr Yanukovych, our correspondent says.

Nestor Shufrych, a member of Mr Yanukovych's party, described the vote as "howls and snivellings" on the part of parliament.

"The president is the guardian of the constitution and he won't pay attention to this. He won't take this seriously," Mr Shufrych told the BBC.

He said it was an illegal decision and that they would contest it in the Constitutional Court.

In a separate vote, the local parliament in Mr Yanukovych's home region of Donetsk decided to hold a referendum on 9 January to seek autonomy from central government.

Mike.

Victor

mike65, attribute your quotes!

Our correspondent says the government will not automatically be dismissed now the resolution has been passed, as this requires the signature of the president.

It seems Kuchma is telling Yanukovich to (go) screw himself.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2004/1202/ukraine.html

Yanukovich dismissal to follow reforms
02 December 2004 21:56

Outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma said he would dismiss Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich's government only after constitutional reforms needed to organise new elections were passed.

Mr Kuchma was addressing a meeting of ministers after returning from a day-long visit to Moscow.

Parliament dismissed Mr Yanukovich's government yesterday, but the Prime Minister, who recently narrowly won the presidential poll, rejected the dismissal.

The reforms proposed by Mr Kuchma would reduce the president's powers and extend those of the parliament and government.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is sceptical about demands by the Ukrainian opposition for a fresh run-off vote.

Speaking in Moscow during Mr Kuchma's visit, Mr Putin said a repeat of the run-off vote may fail to work.

The Ukrainian opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, has contested the narrow win by Mr Yanukovich.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government and opposition appear to be moving towards a compromise in the dispute, with both sides saying some progress was made in yesterday's talks chaired by international mediators.

The parties have agreed not to argue further over the terms of any new election until the Supreme Court has ruled on vote rigging allegations.

The court, which is still considering the matter, is not expected to make a ruling until tomorrow.

arcadegame2004

It seems Kuchma is telling Yanukovich to (go) screw himself.

If I were the demonstrators I wouldn't trust Kuchma as far as I could throw them. Kuchma is like a student of the Slobodan Milosevic school of dividing the Opposition. In 1996 it looked like the latter was on his way out when there were demonstations in Belgrade against rigged local-elections and what did he do? He appointed Vuk Draskovic, one of the leaders of the opposition as a minister in his government and overturned some results and then the protests stopped for a few years.

Kuchma says that he won't sack the PM until after "constitutional changes", including reducing the power of the Presidency and increasing parliament's powers. However, he is also hairsplitting by talking about a new election where everything goes back to the start with a new First Round, instead of re-running the second round. This is all intended to drag out proceedings and divide the opposition. I hope the demonstrators will not be fooled.

Read today that Putin is trying to bully the breakaway Georgian region of Abhazia because it voted in a president he didnt like! The West must make sure that Putin is not encouraged to just waltz into democratic countries just because they don't like their governments. Sorry. They already have troops there! how silly of me to almost forget that. And they have them in North Ossetia too. And Moldova (Transdniester). And Sevastapol in Ukraine! The West must make it clear to Vladimir the Terrible that he will stop getting out taxpayers money in loans if he doesn't stop trying to impose his imperial designs on other countries. Traditionally, Russians have regarded Ukrainians and Belarussians as simply subtribes of the Russian race, and their languages as simply inferior branches of the Russian language. They miust not be encouraged in their imperialistic and anarchronistid attitudes. They destroyed the Ukrainian language in half the country and nearly wiped out the Belarussian language which is now only spoken by 1 million out of 10 million Belarussians.

We must help drag Russia's mindset into the 21st century.