Ukraine on the brink of civil war or just a dodgy moment?

Victor

It seems Kuchma is telling Yanukovich to (go) screw himself.

I don't take this back, but I am reconsidering it, it could of course just be used to castrate the opposition should they win.QUOTE=arcadegame2004]And they have them in North Ossetia too. And Moldova (Transdniester). And Sevastapol in Ukraine! [/QUOTE]Would the first be because North Ossetia is part of Russia and the last because there is a big naval base there as a hang over from the Soviet Union (in fact much of the Soviet navy was built there)? I'm not familiar with them being in Moldova.

Traditionally, Russians have regarded Ukrainians and Belarussians as simply subtribes of the Russian race, and their languages as simply inferior branches of the Russian language. Of course, everyone else treated Ukrainians as Russians also.

Well from the mouth of a Ukrainian and Russian are little different, almost closer to different dialects (consider a working class Glaswegian trying to understand a D4 accent and vice-versa) than different languages. That one language is inferior is a subjective matter based on numbers, not culture.

Ukraine Supreme Court to rule on poll
http://home.eircom.net/content/reuters/worldnews/4565640?view=Eircomnet

Quick re-run in Ukraine opposed
http://home.eircom.net/content/reuters/worldnews/4563949?view=Eircomnet

mike65

Good news

from bbc
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4066617.stm

Ukraine court annuls poll result


Ukraine's Supreme Court has annulled the second round of the presidential election - upholding opposition claims that it was fraudulent.

Presiding judge Anatoly Yarema said a new vote must be held by 26 December.

Supporters of the pro-Western candidate Viktor Yushchenko broke into cheers as the verdict was announced.

The court told the election commisssion to organise a new run-off poll between Mr Yushchenko and the pro-Moscow Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.

Mike.

gandalf

Sky must be so pissed off they don't have another little war to cover !!! Just a boring old election.

Hopefully this one will pass off without incident and whoever wins, the Ukrainian people can feel confortable that it was fair and open.

arcadegame2004

Would the first be because North Ossetia is part of Russia and the last because there is a big naval base there as a hang over from the Soviet Union (in fact much of the Soviet navy was built there)? I'm not familiar with them being in Moldova.

Sorry I meant South Ossetia, which is theoretically part of Georgia but which broke away from Georgia and has Russian soldiers there protecting it from Georgia taking it back. South Ossetia is not recognised internationally as being anything other than part of Georgia. Russia interfered in that situation so I figured it might in Ukraine with respect to potential pro-Russian separatist regions.

Abhazia was majority Georgian until the ethnic Abhaz declared independence in 1992 or thereabouts and then expelled 400,000 Georgians with the help of Russia in a war with Georgia. Russian has a base at Sukhomi, the Abkhaz capital. I read yesterday on BBC that Russia has closed the railway linking Abhkazia to Russia, in order to place economic pressure on them to re-run an election where the official winner was the opposition candidate. Putin's man there lost the election and Putin isn't very happy about that. More interference. I've heard of govts rigging elections, but I have never heard of an Opposition rigging on countrywide! In the US the allegations of vote-rigging in 2000 were in a difference context, as the US is a federal state where the Opposition party control the governorship in some states, unlike Abhazia and most countries.

In the Russian speaking area of Transdniester, which is supposed to be part of Moldova, Russian troops intervened in a war of independence by Transdniester from Moldova. They tried to get President Vladimir Voronin of Moldova to sign an agreement effectively giving the region independence from Moldova, but street protests in Chisinau changed his mind.

Russia is such a hypocrite. They call separatism by regions in Russia "terrorism". Yet they support such sentiments in other countries. They should practice what they preach.

spongebob

arcadegame2004 wrote:

And they have them in North Ossetia too.

You mean South Ossetia . Otherwise an excellent post . Keep that up and up and I may change my mind about you.

M

shotamoose

So it looks like there's going to be another election in the Ukraine, or at least a re-run of the second round. To me, this is probably the best outcome we could have hoped for, and the Ukrainians, both public and politicians, have (so far) handled what could have been a terrible situation very well, despite every Western news organisation apparently dying for something more news-worthy, like civil war.

But. This next election is going to be even more intensely-fought than the last one, and I would have thought each side will be making massive efforts to get out every vote possible. If the result is close (i.e. a margin of victory of less than 5%) we could have the same situation all over again. The only way to definitively prevent this would be to run a completely clean election with no 101% turn-outs, no intimidation and generally no fraud.

So how likely is it that the 26 December election will be certifiably 'cleaner' than the last one?

arcadegame2004

shotamoose wrote:

So it looks like there's going to be another election in the Ukraine, or at least a re-run of the second round. To me, this is probably the best outcome we could have hoped for, and the Ukrainians, both public and politicians, have (so far) handled what could have been a terrible situation very well, despite every Western news organisation apparently dying for something more news-worthy, like civil war.

But. This next election is going to be even more intensely-fought than the last one, and I would have thought each side will be making massive efforts to get out every vote possible. If the result is close (i.e. a margin of victory of less than 5%) we could have the same situation all over again. The only way to definitively prevent this would be to run a completely clean election with no 101% turn-outs, no intimidation and generally no fraud.

So how likely is it that the 26 December election will be certifiably 'cleaner' than the last one?

Not that likely at present given the parliament has failed to agree to pass changes to the electoral-law needed to prevent fraud occuring again, e.g. banning absentee ballots which were used by Ukrainian residents to vote, dead people voting, etc. I fear the same Electoral Commission which threw in (according to a member who resigned) an extra 1 million votes after the polls had closed, may stay put. Apparently this time it was Yushenko supporters in parliament that refused to vote keep to a deal under which the pro-government side would vote to change the electoral-law in return for reductions in the powers of the President. I fear it will all end up in the courts again, and we could be back here again after December 26th. I personally feel that date is too soon to resolve all the issues of fraud.