05-06 winter weather indications (part 3)

darkman2

Hi all, yesterdays 12z GFS was amazing featuring a complete NAD shutdown allbeit in FI. Alas this changed but some runs have stuck with it, mostly the Canadian GEM and also JMA. So maybe there is still a possibility of an easterly before January.....we hope. As for Christmas I reckon hp will be in control bringing frosty nights and cool days. Its just a case of where we go from there.

Squidvicious

Surprised to see the Irish Met. Office forecasting mild , settled weater for Christmas day and even beyond . Usually , they won't go beyond a three day outlook so it's a surprise to see them going seven days ahead . To me , it seems more likely to be cold , though settled heading into next weekend .

Gonzo

other places are going for mild weather on Christmas and as far as January 2nd where theres a hint of colder weather then.

lucernarian

(The chart produced at 0000 hrs this morning)

Is it me or is the control run crazy?

Wibbler

To_be_confirmed wrote:

(The chart produced at 0000 hrs this morning)

Is it me or is the control run crazy?

Something's afoot (possibly). The folks over on the Net-Weather winter discussion forum have kicked of a bit off a ramp.

Scubadevils

Seems all very exciting reading TWO and net but would I be right in saying it doesn't look like really making it to Ireland? As it stands anyway.

I'd relax for a bit and see some more runs first-though I jad a quick glance earlier this evening and saw a high position itself in scotland somewhere and ridging over to scandinavia.

That looked like a north East flow which is better than an Easterly at the moment as it is a good deal colder up there.
In fact Eastern Europe was almost warmer than Scotland recently so strictly East as yet is of no use in my opinion as theres not enough cold pooling out there.
There is north of East though.

To answer the question, you would want at least a week with that flow to have a good snowy impact here.
You'd notice the effects of it after 3 or 4 days but a week is what you really need and you do not want the source to be closed off after that week either.

Having said that I havent looked so at this point I dont know enough to know how much agreement there is for this or indeed what exactly is being suggested.
I also always add the caveat that weather more than a week out is indicative only and subject to change at a moments notice.
However it is always encouraging to see a Scandi high at the end of December rather than a mild south westerly obviously if you love snow

darkman2

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.pngHi Earthman, im very impressed with most of the model runs most notably the ECM and JMA post Christmas. The GFS is still reluctant but it is gradually coming into line with the others. I reckon that a fundamental change to the weather pattern is about to happen with a more continental influence. Either way this means colder weather. Looking at the various model indicators there is certainly the chance real winter weather from the 25th or 26th with sleet or snow a possibility later next week, even at lower levels. A long way to go but the signs are good so far.

darkman2

Thats better:D

darkman2

Hi Felixdhc,
Theres a few things that need to be ironed out but it should be darn cold particularly in the East and Southeast and if you go by ECM (which has been the most consistent model this winter) then the signs for us are very good indeed. Its still in fantasy island range but im very confident something interesting is on our doorstep after xmas:D Temps between 3 and 6 C initially. The crucial -5 isotherm should also be over us.

Scubadevils

All sounds positive, afraid to get caught up in excitement of something that may not even hit us

darkman2

Your absolutly right, and nothing may come of it but its a long way off in forcasting terms so dont write it off yet:)

darkman2

Hi, another cracking run from the ECM this morning. Its approaching crunch time. In one corner the UKMO/ECM/HIRLAM, in the other GFS/JMA/NGPS and the high will almost certainly build to our north: The main question: does it come south and introduce a typical Atlantic flow (GFS)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html OR does it maintain a great posistion to our north and link with the scandi high (ECM)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

Squidvicious

darkman2 wrote:

Hi, another cracking run from the ECM this morning. Its approaching crunch time. In one corner the UKMO/ECM/HIRLAM, in the other GFS/JMA/NGPS and the high will almost certainly build to our north: The main question: does it come south and introduce a typical Atlantic flow (GFS)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html OR does it maintain a great posistion to our north and link with the scandi high (ECM)http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

I think we need to see signs of Low pressure building to the South to anchor the High to our North . Some signs of LP's to the South-West which might do the trick .It could be a great Christmas/New Year week:D

darkman2

12z GFS backtrack as expected. I expect upgrades of the easterly in the days ahead. The excitment mounts:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1742.png


GFS is gradually falling in line with the ECM. The following runs will be very interesting indeed:D

Supercell

Weathercheck must be taking valium at the moment to calm himself!!

As already pointed out, its a long way away, but has to be said some of the runs are exceedingly nice if you like cold and snow and live in the north or the eastern side of the country!

darkman2

ENSEMBLES!!!! Great support, its all coming together. I hope the 18z is as good, i suspect it will be:D http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png :cool:

3 days of near zero followed by a warm up by the looks of things.
It could be a dry 3 days too.

darkman2

Hi Earthman, IMO this is ony the start, those ensembles represent the beginning of a shift of the GFS in line with ECM which would bring snowfall to the east certainly. Ive just seen the UKMO and if yu think GFS is good wait till you see that! P.S ECM out soon, i suspect alot of ppl will be anxious to see it:D

However as it still so far out, it could be downgraded.

Supercell

Yep...lets keep out calm lads..this could yet go títsup..must admit am getting excited in a way about the charts I havent in years...

Would be nice for modern school kids will get to experiece a proper winter at last like the ones in the 80's I was so lucky to experience!!

Must get extra memory for the camera..upps..am ramping !!

I did like the 850 chart pulsing -10 air into the UK midlands.
But whats the point if after 2 or 3 days its all back zonal again...

It would hardly have had time to do its work.
The feed is certainly from the right direction but it needs to be sustained and uninterupted

Supercell

Even '87 which was one of the most severe spells in recent times didnt last long here, only about 2-3 days, but it was severe and snowy and by the end of it had my fill of severe for the winter!!

yup I was knee deep in snow walking down broadford road in Ballinteer, only to find out the 48a's werent running and the snow was pelting down.
Dub airports max on that friday was -1c and UCD's lake was frozen over and the college shut.
Them were the days
Actually, I think that could have been 4 or 5 days longfield with a blizzard on the friday.

ECM seems to have crashed with probably half the pc's on Two trying to get in there.
I cant open anything in it anyway.
Could I ask anyone who does get them to put up attachments which we'll delete later and replace with links for copy right reasons.
Just so everyone can have a look.

Supercell

lol , so it has, amazing that a few weather fanatics can do this..must a pretty poor host tbh

darkman2

ECM 168 a slight downgrade but at nothing to worry about:D

darkman2

http://tinypic.com/iwksbp.gif This ECM wind chart says it all, snow showers would likely affect the east at least for a time:D

Supercell

darkman2 wrote:

http://tinypic.com/iwksbp.gif This ECM wind chart says it all, snow showers would likely affect the east at least for a time:D

Saw that, not convinced that the temperatures wouldnt be too high though without looking at the corresponding pressure maps, how annoying that the server has buckled under the load!!

darkman2

Hi Lf, ive seen the corresponding pressure chart. At first it looks a slight downgrade but it actually is still an excellent chart with plenty of scope for upgrade or downgrade. Nothings for certian by a long shot:)

Scubadevils

Danno wrote:

My hunch was right, that Christmas day high to become a scandi high

Is that good or bad?