05-06 winter weather indications (part 3)

darkman2

Hi F, Trust me, its more than good:D

Danno

Good for people living east of the N62 corridor...

darkman2

If a channel low developes then widespread heavy snow showers would occur but on the East coast would fall as rain/hail or sleet initially:)

Scubadevils

mmm, initially you say I do remember a few occassions in my youth where it would be bucketing rain and then turned to snow, seems like so long ago now. This winter has to be it, we are due a biggy. It really does feel different so far this winter, so much more frost and it has seemed overall that bit colder than recent winters. Yep, this is it.

darkman2

To put it bluntly Felix we havnt seen charts like this in years, in fact you could go back to 95/96 for similar charts approaching January. Weve been told we are in for a harsh winter so lets see it happen:)

Scubadevils

I dont really remember 95/96 for some reason, I think it may have been that I was more into going clubbing and didnt think much about the weather (or much else for that matter ) The snow in '82 is more clear in my mind!

ninebeanrows

Things look decent but not exceptional at the moment:)

Im really taking this easy this year as i now know you need more than good
synoptics for it to snow in this part of the country!

Overall the synoptics are exceptional if you live in southeast England and if
i lived there i'd be over the moon! But i don't and most of you don't.

For us at the moment all i can see High Pressure over us for Christmas with
variable cloud cover and frost where skies clear, then the high pressure will slip north allowing a cold feed into southeast england and slowly pushing
west (please note that with such a cold airmass encroaching temperatures drop
quite sharply as the cold travels in pools). Then by the 26th the cold air will slip into the east coast and slowly spread to much of Ireland bar the west coast. Pressure will be high with any showers only affecting the south and maybe the east. Signs of the high pressure pushing further north after December 27th with perhaps more widespread showers in the east but nothing exceptional. After this things could either get very cold or the high pressure will be forced south by a strong jet to the north.

Danno

Heck, Dec 21st 1995 to Jan 12th 1996 was some cold spell!

Ice days every day here and loads of snow!

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Things look decent but not exceptional at the moment:)

Im really taking this easy this year as i now know you need more than good
synoptics for it to snow in this part of the country!

Overall the synoptics are exceptional if you live in southeast England and if
i lived there i'd be over the moon! But i don't and most of you don't.

For us at the moment all i can see High Pressure over us for Christmas with
variable cloud cover and frost where skies clear, then the high pressure will slip north allowing a cold feed into southeast england and slowly pushing
west (please note that with such a cold airmass encroaching temperatures drop
quite sharply as the cold travels in pools). Then by the 26th the cold air will slip into the east coast and slowly spread to much of Ireland bar the west coast. Pressure will be high with any showers only affecting the south and maybe the east. Signs of the high pressure pushing further north after December 27th with perhaps more widespread showers in the east but nothing exceptional. After this things could either get very cold or the high pressure will be forced south by a strong jet to the north.

Its an evolving situation, we wont know anything for sure until 76 hrs out and it could still go pear shaped:)

Danno

WC, I have a feeling that this cold spell will develop quickly, I estimate that by tea-time Sunday it will be getting going, I would put a few quid on Dublin Airport, or more esp, Casement to have snowfall, albeit light by 23:59!

Mullingar or Kilkenny would be interesting bets too.

Evelyn was not going for it on the 9.25, however, she did show a nice cold front pushing in from the east into UK for Sunday Midday. This I feel will be another 100 miles further west at that time, a strong southerly out to our west will produce the much needed jolt from the east.

Any thoughts?

ninebeanrows

Danno wrote:

WC, I have a feeling that this cold spell will develop quickly, I estimate that by tea-time Sunday it will be getting going, I would put a few quid on Dublin Airport, or more esp, Casement to have snowfall, albeit light by 23:59!

Mullingar or Kilkenny would be interesting bets too.

Evelyn was not going for it on the 9.25, however, she did show a nice cold front pushing in from the east into UK for Sunday Midday. This I feel will be another 100 miles further west at that time, a strong southerly out to our west will produce the much needed jolt from the east.

Any thoughts?

Missed the forecast.

But i suspect it would be a dying feature.

Anyway were looking way to far ahead - lets make sure we get the easterly
feed to begin with

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Things look decent but not exceptional at the moment:)

Im really taking this easy this year as i now know you need more than good
synoptics for it to snow in this part of the country!

Overall the synoptics are exceptional if you live in southeast England and if
i lived there i'd be over the moon! But i don't and most of you don't.

For us at the moment all i can see High Pressure over us for Christmas with
variable cloud cover and frost where skies clear, then the high pressure will slip north allowing a cold feed into southeast england and slowly pushing
west (please note that with such a cold airmass encroaching temperatures drop
quite sharply as the cold travels in pools). Then by the 26th the cold air will slip into the east coast and slowly spread to much of Ireland bar the west coast. Pressure will be high with any showers only affecting the south and maybe the east. Signs of the high pressure pushing further north after December 27th with perhaps more widespread showers in the east but nothing exceptional. After this things could either get very cold or the high pressure will be forced south by a strong jet to the north.

Good post Weather check, i'd agree with most parts bar the unexceptional bit, some of the ensembles are exceptional ..'87 .82 '95 type events..but is early days yet.
Hope this does turn out to the be the long overdue proper cold ne'ly spell that old ppl like me remember :P !!

Supercell

Danno wrote:

WC, I have a feeling that this cold spell will develop quickly, I estimate that by tea-time Sunday it will be getting going, I would put a few quid on Dublin Airport, or more esp, Casement to have snowfall, albeit light by 23:59!

Mullingar or Kilkenny would be interesting bets too.

Evelyn was not going for it on the 9.25, however, she did show a nice cold front pushing in from the east into UK for Sunday Midday. This I feel will be another 100 miles further west at that time, a strong southerly out to our west will produce the much needed jolt from the east.

Any thoughts?

I wouldnt!! (not that i have a few quid on the bookies to bias my opinion or anything! ..two years with white xmas in Dublin..unlikely!!! (i ferking hope so!!)

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Good post Weather check, i'd agree with most parts bar the unexceptional bit, some of the ensembles are exceptional ..'87 .82 '95 type events..but is early days yet.
Hope this does turn out to the be the long overdue proper cold ne'ly spell that old ppl like me remember :P !!

I don't deny that *if* the high pressure slips properly over Scandi around the 28th that we would face a heck of an Easterly reminicent of 95' maybe 87' but we need to get past the crucial stage and make sure the high pressure isn't forced south by the jet to the north around the 27th. If it slips into place which is possible a screaming easterly would occur.

We are very close to an exceptional cold outbreak but we arent close enough yet to get excited or to discuss in detail.

Supercell

Danno wrote:

What age are you Longfield?

Born in 1979, I can remember Snow of Jan 87 as my first "snow memory"

Also remember the July 25th 1985 thunder, the 1989 floods, 1990 heatwave, 1991 snowfall...

Old enough to remember that the '82 snow denyed me and my mates a birthday trip to the local roller disco in the then called "Top Hat" in Blackrock ..thinking back, that might have been the trigger that lead me to want to forecast the snow!!

I clearly remember looking out the kitchen window and watching the snow piling up outside and wondering it it would ever stop..little did i realise how rare an event this would prove to be.

ninebeanrows

Lets watch the 18z and hope for a good run and for more consistency from the ENS's possibly with 8:2 agreement on the scenario of a cold 4-5 day easterly and perhaps some extenting the cold;)

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

I don't deny that *if* the high pressure slips properly over Scandi around the 28th that we would face a heck of an Easterly reminicent of 95' maybe 87' but we need to get past the crucial stage and make sure the high pressure isn't forced south by the jet to the north around the 27th. If it slips into place which is possible a screaming easterly would occur.

We are very close to an exceptional cold outbreak but we arent close enough yet to get excited or to discuss in detail.

Yep, have to say am totally in agreement with you there, its early days, but promising days they are.

Supercell

Danno wrote:

WOW! All in the one line: "totally in agreement" & "realistic viewpoint Weathercheck"

Who the hell are you? and what have you done with Weathercheck???

Its almost like we are talking to someone else!!, dont mind as long as the snow is possibly coming..hope its blizzards on the northside of the big smoke :P!!

darkman2

18z is excellent so far!

ninebeanrows

hehe were good to go

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Gonzo

I think even weathercheck has realised that over the past 10 years most of these excitments usually deliver very little worth while to Ireland and its best not to go overboard excited untill the event happens, it just leads to dissapointments time and time again. I remember most of the events that worked out posted above but I dont seem to remember the snow of 95... definitely the snow of 1991 is the last decent snow I remember falling in my area christ thats 14 years ago! did the snow of 95 effect the east of the country?

ninebeanrows

Danno wrote:

WOW! All in the one line: "totally in agreement" & "realistic viewpoint Weathercheck"

Who the hell are you? and what have you done with Weathercheck???

I just don't wanna get overly excited about something so far away and so fickle..

Dont worry there will be many a if this comes off;)

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

I think even weathercheck has realised that over the past 10 years most of these excitments usually deliver very little worth while to Ireland and its best not to go overboard excited untill the event happens, it just leads to dissapointments time and time again. I remember most of the events that worked out posted above but I dont seem to remember the snow of 95... definitely the snow of 1991 is the last decent snow I remember falling in my area christ thats 14 years ago! did the snow of 95 effect the east of the country?

It affected us but not that much. I remember waking up totally unaware that snow had fallen, my cousins there ( it must of being during a midterm) and playing in the snow, stacking snowballs on windowsills etc. There was about 4-6 inches;)

ninebeanrows

This is my worry

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Good night;)

Wibbler

darkman2 wrote:

To put it bluntly Felix we havnt seen charts like this in years, in fact you could go back to 95/96 for similar charts approaching January. Weve been told we are in for a harsh winter so lets see it happen:)

Was there not something similar this time last year, which failed to pan out?

Danno

er, where were you Dec 25th 2004? It started here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=204654&page=6

ninebeanrows

The game is up folks.. Backdown extrodinare:eek:

darkman2

Im ignoring that GFS run as I dont think that will happen but who knows, lets wait for the 06z. Incidentally ECM is still sticking to its guns!:)

darkman2

06z is an improvement but not great. Everything needs to be a few hundred miles north:)

LoL

I do have to laugh at these models...

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn2401.png

I mean for fecks sake-one minute they have it snowing and the air coming down from siberia and the next minute we may get out our t shirts for that Roaster!