05-06 winter weather indications (part 3)

Supercell

Hmm , its not looking good, as usual the real cold is always about a week away...not to say that it won't turn around again..but have yet to see that happen in recent winters.

Hope springs eternal..but snow over the christmas period here is looking increasingly unlikely

ninebeanrows

Hah what a dreadful turn around!

People slagging the GFS for not going with the ECM - the ECM has been
caught out big here and Dublin can expect a continuation of these boring average temperature days:rolleyes:

It's not a question of being caught out.
Models are just interpretations at a week or more out.
I'm always telling you that.

They dont predict weather at that distance, they hypothesise weather by guessing and adding the effects of various variables and thats what they are-variables.
Models dont control variables, they are subject to them.

For all we know, theres a story behind every interpretation or model scenario released.
Ergo its not or shouldnt be a case of Oh look at this one I hope that comes off-its a case of guessing what made that model think like that and whether the forecasting involved is an educational exercise or a more mainstream likelyhood.

LoL
Very cold !!
It's hit another roundabout and forked off to the right again

No doubt mild runs again in the morning folloowed by cold runs followed by saharan dust etc.

I'll watch Country file next week-that might give a better indication.