Alternative to Very Bad Tipster wanted!!

Ballyman

OK. I've tried this before on several occasions and it works well but as I haven't access to the net all the time and have to "work" on occasion I haven't been able to do this everyday. But the jist of it is this.

Set yourself a daily target that you want to win. For this example I'll go with €10 per day to begin with.

Now select a tipster that you believe will have at least one winner a day. Kieran O' Connell is the one I use as he has on average 3-4+ winners per day through out all his selections on all the meetings of the day. For this "experiment" to work you only need one winner a day.

Anyway on his first tip, the price is 5/1. Therefore you invest €2 to win your €10 for the day. If the horse loses you now need to win €12 to get your €10 daily winnings (€10 daily winnings + €2 lost on previous bet)

Move on to his second tip where the horse is 4/1. (To make this easy I'm using prices that work out without fractions) You need to invest €3 on this one to get your €12 (€10 daily winnings + €2 lost on previous bet). Again if he loses you now need to win €15 to get your daily €10 winnings (€10 daily winnings + €5 lost on previous 2 bets).

Move onto third tip where the horse is 3/1. You need to invest €5 on this one to get your €15 (€10 daily winnings + €5 lost on previous bets).

If he wins you are covered and stop. If he loses you continue until you get one that wins following same procedure as above.

This really does work and if you don't think it will all you have to do is do is try this for a week with play money and see how you get on. You will make a profit. I work off the €10 per day at the moment until a sufficient bankroll is built up cos if you have to wait for 10 or 15 races before a winner comes up the outlay can be substantial especially if you set larger daily targets. But as I said, all you need is a tipster who can pick one winner from the 30+ races that are on per day. Not a tall order for Mr. O'Connell I assure you!! I have a spreadsheet for anyone who wants it that calculates how much is needed to get your daily limit and tells you how much you have invested to get it etc. if anyone wants it. PM me your details and I'll send it on.

Best of luck!!

finnpark

This is the Martin Gale system.

I did this system on O'Connell's nap to win £20 per day. However, he went 8 losers in a row and I lost everything I won after Day 6 and stopped.

Don't do this system, he will go days without a winner.

It may work for weeks but you will clean your self out. O'Connell often goes many meetings without a winner, one day he picked 4 odds on favourites that lost.

Theoretically the system works if you are prepared to risk £10000 to win a tenner and thats what it comes down to.

I did the same system on snooker on a frame by frame basis, I won a lot but stopped as a lot of players get whitewashed and also go 6 or 7 nil down, far too risky.

Take my advice and stay well away, I won money because I was lucky but I wouldn't risk it again.

finnpark

Ballyman wrote:

I said, all you need is a tipster who can pick one winner from the 30+ races that are on per day.

It will occur once every so often that he will have no winner at all. He had a total of 3000 winners last year which was a strike rate of about 20%.

On race 28 are you prepared to risk £20000+ on a 5/4 shot to win a tenner?

And then it loses, it will be around £50000 on bet 29. And like I say he will go a day or days without 1 winner from all meetings. I remember a day he went 2 meetings in 1 day without a winner, not very hard to do either.

masterK

I've a totally mad suggestion, why don't you just come up with your own selections and then back or lay accordingly? Following these systems will end in tears, most of these tipsters are no better or worse than the average joe soap, they win some days and lose others.

These "keep betting more until you win systems" really annoy me as they are fine to paper trade but in reality you could end up staking some pretty hefty sums to essentially break even, if you were down €500 and there was a even money shot running next you would have to risk going €1000 down to break even, as I said this is fine when you paper trade but in real life you'll need some balls to take the risk, and why are you backing this selection? Becuase some guy in the paper who has made his selections 2 days before and probably only guessed at half them says so.

Culchie

Ballyman, as a Poker player, I'm surprised at your suggestion.

Why not use that system on red and black at the casino ?

finnpark

masterK wrote:

I've a totally mad suggestion, why don't you just come up with your own selections and then back or lay accordingly? Following these systems will end in tears, most of these tipsters are no better or worse than the average joe soap, they win some days and lose others.

These "keep betting more until you win systems" really annoy me as they are fine to paper trade but in reality you could end up staking some pretty hefty sums to essentially break even, if you were down €500 and there was a even money shot running next you would have to risk going €1000 down to break even, as I said this is fine when you paper trade but in real life you'll need some balls to take the risk, and why are you backing this selection? Becuase some guy in the paper who has made his selections 2 days before and probably only guessed at half them says so.

Agree totally, eventhough I myself suggested the same thing a few weeks back. All it takes is just 1 time every 5 years for you to clean your selef out and it is usually happens 5 times every yesr so this sytem is a non-starter.

If you are extremely extremely selective it may work, you still could go any number without a win.

A "friend" (seriously it wasn't me) lost thousands on the snooker after Jimmy White got whitewashed in the premier league snooker. He was winning £150 per match before that. Thats why I stopped because the only reason I didn't do White was that I had no computer access - lucky escape.

On paper the system is unbeatable but in real life, no matter how big your testicles, it is not practical. I still do the system but only when something has just broken a new record, like rangers went something like 10 without a win for 1st time in 100 years, I started a system on them. I also did Man Utd too after they were on a dreadful run. Also, the odds improve as the team goes on a bad run but nothing is guaranteed. What if Rangers go 20 without a win. You have to have a cut off pt.

finnpark

Culchie wrote:

Ballyman, as a Poker player, I'm surprised at your suggestion.

Why not use that system on red and black at the casino ?

Also has been tried before, but you get the same trends. It happens over and over again. You could go 15 in a row one way, you will be risking about £100 000 to win a tenner.

Same goes for FTSE and Dow Joes up/down. Nothing is straight forward, I checked them all out.

Ballyman

I see what you mean. So far I haven't had to go beyond the 9th race so my outlay wasn't big but I put in 20 races at average odds of 2/1 to win €10 and after 20 races it's €25K to win a €10.
There must be something you can use this system for though.
Greyhound racing?? Pick a specific trap number for every race. Statistically you should have a 5/1 chance of winning over time. Is there anything else you can think of??

Ballyman

Culchie wrote:

Ballyman, as a Poker player, I'm surprised at your suggestion.

Why not use that system on red and black at the casino ?

Why are you surprised??
As I stated above it has worked for me and I haven't had to go beyond the 9th race yet. I did it as a paper run for a month before using real money and it seemed good.
I accept that there will be occasions where the stakes will get really outlandish and it wouldn't be practical but I'm afraid the blinkers were left on when I started to win consistently every day without having to use large stakes.
I'm open to suggestion on a better way to use this system cos I don't want to have to pay my rent out of my wages again!
Also, if you'd seen me play poker you wouldn't be calling me a "poker" player! Although I had an excellent night at the SE on saturday. Mental pots on the €50 PL game. There was at least 4 €1K+ pots by some crazy gamblers with bottom pairs et al who seemed to be oblivious to the 4 overcards on the table every time. 33 is just not a good hand!

Culchie

finnpark wrote:

Also has been tried before, but you get the same trends. It happens over and over again. You could go 15 in a row one way, you will be risking about £100 000 to win a tenner.

Same goes for FTSE and Dow Joes up/down. Nothing is straight forward, I checked them all out.

It was not a serious suggestion, I forgot my 'emotions'

The problem is Ballyman is this.

OK, say you don't want to pay your rent ever again as an example.

For arguments sake, let's sake that's 1000 a month.

How are going to win this 1000?

Start at €1 the first day? .... at the end of tha day, you will nearly praying for losers until you have a €100 on a horse, but at the same time, can you afford €200 on the next horse, or €400 the one after if they lose.

You would need a massive bankroll, but even if you had, 5 winners in a row at the start, the % increase would be tiny.

Use whatever bankroll you have, break it down into 100 units, and take it from there. Bankroll Management !

finnpark

Ballyman wrote:

I see what you mean. So far I haven't had to go beyond the 9th race so my outlay wasn't big but I put in 20 races at average odds of 2/1 to win €10 and after 20 races it's €25K to win a €10.
There must be something you can use this system for though.
Greyhound racing?? Pick a specific trap number for every race. Statistically you should have a 5/1 chance of winning over time. Is there anything else you can think of??

The 1st and only time I back greyhound racing I picked trap 4 in all of 10 races. I got the bets free, it was a work night out, but guess what. Trap 4 didn't win any out of 10. Nothing sure.

The best thing I know of for the system is Snooker. Wait for someone to go 2-0 down in live match and then start the system on them, you need 2 players that are very evenly matched and both are playing well. I would stick with the favourite.

The World championship snooker is very competitive so it may be a good thing to do. Alos, you can bet onn who to pot the 1st ball in the next frame but someone could pot the 1st ball 10 times in a row.

I cannot find anything sure enough.

The best racing tipster to use is Racing Post Ratings but Im sure he too will go 15+ without a winner at some stage.

Ballyman

Culchie wrote:

Ballyman, as a Poker player, I'm surprised at your suggestion.

Why not use that system on red and black at the casino ?

Why are you not surprised at your own suggestion of laying two donkeys every day? A total profit of 1.9points yesterday on a 100point bankroll is very easily wiped out by a winning run of naps so it's just as stupid as my suggestion.

masterK

Ballyman, if you really want to follow some tipsters go for ones that are more selective with their picks. Think about it, if a newspapaer tipster has to provide tips for 20-30 races each day how much time do you think they are going to spend on each race? A couple of minutes at most.

Of those tipsters that are selective, by which I mean they only pick a couple of horses a day/week Matt Doyle and David Duggan on the AtTheRaces website are good as well as Pricewise, Trading Post and the Racing Post Ratings column on the Racing Post website.