05-06 snowy weather indications (part 4)

Scubadevils

netweather and TWO going into complete meltdown! Seems to be back on with a bigger punch

billy the squid

heh
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/138_30.gif

cold indeed.

darkman2

Hi all, well ive been saying it for a while now, it may actually come to fruition. 06z GFS is perhaps over the top but certainly a possibility.

On this run, hail,sleet or even snow showers would effect Eastern and Southeastern areas especially but could become more widespread. Its early days for the models which are really struggling with this so dont take it too seriously. Wait for todays later model runs. If its similar I will post the most important charts but at the moment there really is no point as it could all change very dramatically:)

darkman2

Just noticed the UKMO has come into line aswell:D WOW temps of 1C at 12 noon nezt Wednesday:eek:

ninebeanrows

Hah the 6z is ultra amazing:D




:eek:

ninebeanrows

If the 6z comes off. SNOW SNOW SNOW for Dublin and the east:D

darkman2

Hi WC, I wouldnt count those chickens just yet. This model needs serious backup later today. Chances are with sea temps between 5 and 6 degrees in the Irish sea I would have thought sleety/haily stuff would affect coastal areas. But this could change, only one run:)

Off ye go - post all your thoughts on whatever trend you want to highlight in advance of it happening in the winter season here.

As per the charter-no new threads on potential severe weather unless it's merited-otherwise the new threads will be merged into this one which is a waste of time and effort for the mod and the poster

This thread will remain a sticky and is likely to be replaced by a part 2 thread , a part 3 thread etc depending on how long or unwieldy it gets.

I'd rather not see each part longer than 3 or 4 pages-so thats the rule of thumb.
For continuity purposes, if you as a poster can remember that guideline,then at page 3 or 4, you can start a new one with the same title and I will lock & unsticky this one and sticky the new one.

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

Hah the 6z is ultra amazing:D




:eek:

Here is the run from that New Zealand site mentioned in a thread

Squidvicious

I don't think snow is nailed on for Ireland yet . I reckon that it'll probably be cold enough - dew-points are generally quite low on an easterly which allows snow to fall even at 1 or 2 C . The problem is that the High Pressure doesn't appear to drift quite far enough North to allow the real Easterly airflow to properly affect us according to most models . It's nearly there , though !

Thank God I'm in the South-East which puts me near the front of the snow- queue for a change:D

That suggests lake effect showers along the East coast

Though further out into fantasy island,it looks like a cold v mild battle with us unfortunately on the mild side of it.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1924.png

I pay little heed to anything beyond 4 or 5 days though and I doubt anyone else will that has any sense.

darkman2

The 12z is a disappionting run for us but there is room for upgrade. The later models will tell alot. The ensembles will probrably put this run on the slightly milder side:)


Just as I suspected the East would be affected by SSTs

Supercell

The 12z control run is a total cold outlier for Dublin ...



The charts you are posting are all from the heavy blue run in the image above for those who dont already know this, ecm has downgraded the cold, in fact GFS is the only model one to still have it.

Am sorry to say, I think the chances of snow in the next couple of weeks looks pretty low right now , at least here in Ireland.

darkman2

Yep an amazingly cold outlier, I reckon the nails are goin into the coffin now. The UK might not see any of this either as the UKMO 12z is about to once again go completely against the GFS

Supercell

One thing most of the models agree on is that there will be high pressure over the country during the christmas period, which if its clear would mean lovely cool crisp days but frosty nights, not bad at all for the time of year imho

Scubadevils

I'd rather cool and crisp alright to semi-mild and damp. I would love a decent snow event around Christmas or shortly after but my main concern is to get something decent before the winter ends at least. Can't take much more of these changes, head wreckin!

Danno

Light flurries in the SE and E

darkman2

The models really are not handling this now at all. Its unbelievable that 80hrs out we have no agreement whatsoever. It must be down to the evolution of the high which is unusual. Dont rule anything in or out yet:)

lucernarian

My oh my, this place has been busy since my cold outlier chart:D There have been some real twists and turns in the last 48 hrs but they seem to go from one extreme outside chance to the other.

My logic tells me that it will be a compromise of 3 or 4 cold days with frosty nights. I will be very suprised to see any snow post-Xmas.

At least there's always January and February to look forward to:rolleyes:

Danno

Where is Weathercheck, we need some optimism around this place! :P

darkman2

This is a write off but mark my words this is a blessing in disguise. Once the high drifts south it is VERY likely it will retrogress west giving us a very potent Northerly blast im sure at some stage in the next week and a half. Winter aint over by a long shot:D

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

One thing most of the models agree on is that there will be high pressure over the country during the christmas period, which if its clear would mean lovely cool crisp days but frosty nights, not bad at all for the time of year imho

A big if. It seems more aften than not high pressure = gloom during winter.
Is there indication that this will be different?

Probably mothman if it avoids a southwest flow as opposed to a southeast flow.
A slight northeast flow seems more likely-ergo it should be clearer I think.

As for snow.
Chances very poor here now right up to the new year unlike our friends across the water who could be in for a cold mild battle of the type that produces a lot of snow before the mild wins.
Looks like no contest here at all mild all the way with the exception of some frost over the Xmas.
Dry too.

Squidvicious

I certainly wouldn't write off the chances of snow next week . It'll take only a small change in synoptics to allow snow showers in the East and South-East on Tuesday . I reckon it's a 50/50 shot at the moment . In fact the latest UKMO charts show a decent ENE flow reaching the S E by Tuesday which could easily draw in a few showers over the Irish Sea . Much of our snow (esp. in the East) comes when little features develop around the edge of a High Pressure system . By their nature , they're very hard to spot at this distance . The current set-up remind me of Christmas '96/'97 when we got a good snowfall on New Years' Night . That wasn't really forecast too well either .

The battle between the cold and mild air on Thur. looks fascinating . I know the charts show us in the mild air and rain , but that could easily change . Really cold air is hard to shift and the models may well be over-estimating how quickly the cold air will retreat . The great blizzard of Feb. '78 had been forecast to move North-East and turn to rain here , but instead gave us six inches .

Squidvicious

Edit my above post- the GFS this morning looks unbelievable . High Pressure retreating North allowing a cold and showery Easterly . IF that chart comes off ,widespread snow is nailed on for next week .

JackieChan

I may not be interpreting these models correctly, but if this is expected air/near ground temperatures next Thursday could be very cold

yes it will be mild again on tonights charts-that seems to be the roller coaster , whatever they are inputting into these models at the moment.
Each run is wildly different at times.
Those last ones look lovely.
To quote the mad former BBC weather forecaster Ian McCaskill (he's the guy on the sponsorship adds for sky news weather with the big glasses and who is funny pointing out the clouds form the planes etc)

Anyway I remember in january 87, there was already a couple of inches cover in Dublin and the East and a system was approaching from Sweden to add to it...
It brought the whole country snow spreading in from the East and snow from it fell all the way down to Valentia!

There was a good 10 inches in Ballinteer.

anyways back to mccaskill...

He said "The great white siberian army approaches" when he pointed to the system that brought all that snow.

One caveat... This mornings RTE Forecast at 755am said cold and frosty but returning to normal after st stephens day with temps rising...

I'd like to know what gives them that confidence

Squidvicious

Earthman wrote:

One caveat... This mornings RTE Forecast at 755am said cold and frosty but returning to normal after st stephens day with temps rising...

I'd like to know what gives them that confidence

Seems to be a bit out of date at the moment - big change to the models this morning and now finally in a fairly reliable timeframe there is a real snow risk for East and South

ninebeanrows

UP DOWN UP:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

The models are all over the gaf!!

At the moment they are sweet!:D

Easterly approaches http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn901.png

Easterly arrives

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1141.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1142.png

This could be a crucial point in our winter:D

ninebeanrows

Stunning ensembles even for the misplaced Dublin point!

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Scubadevils

Odd with met forecast of mild next week! Net-weather wouldnt inspire much hope for snow here from the way they are talking.