05-06 snowy weather indications (part 4)

ninebeanrows

Well if the latest GFS happens then there would be a rash of showers
pushing into the east.

The best thing about this cold spell if it were to happen would be that
days would be very short with little heating. Nights would be long so
the atmosphere would find it hard to heat up. If we were under the cold
airmass and on day 1 of the easterly the maxima was 4c i would expect day 2 to have a max of 3c, day 3 a max of 2c, day 4 a max of 1c and so forth..;)

Squidvicious

Felixdhc wrote:

Odd with met forecast of mild next week! Net-weather wouldnt inspire much hope for snow here from the way they are talking.

I've often noticed the British weather sites and forecasters tend to under-prog. snow for here . I certainly hope that's what's happening here;) . I think that the Irish met. office forecasts simply haven't updated with the latest info. Even if snow doesn't arrive here , I don't see milder conditions kicking in 'til the 29th and certainly not striaght after Stephen's Day .

If the GFS and UKMO charts come off , I'd be very confident , for the East and South-East anyway . Charts by no means set in stome yet , however .

Scubadevils

Its hard to feel confident about it though with all the swings in the models the last few days, it could disappear I'm sure again. I am really trying not to get too excited here but :eek:

ninebeanrows

Yes at this stage it is really a 60/40 situation in favour of the easterly.

In London it's a 80/20 situation

Scubadevils

So if it keeps going according to plan we should get excited from...Monday/Tuesday?

Well certainly there * should * be 2 or 3 days cold enough for snow in this ensemble

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_00.gif?9d37510600c708a7570526a94d9e5a0c

The UKMO have put out early warnings for heavy snow in the south and East of England...but that is closer to the coldest air.

It would be ironic for it to be snowing in the Scilly isles and a beautifull midish day in our neck of the woods.

I'm not counting chickens here though, this information is swinging in all directions from run to run still such that it is unreliable.

ninebeanrows

Thankfully those are the ensembles from earlier

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

And i don't think it will be that cruel, if we dont manage to catch the cold
there will be more high pressure over the region and any snow would be limited to the very far southeast of England.

Around 50% of ensembles go for a 4-5 day spell
These are well clustered showing agreement

While 40% of the runs show milder weather / much less clustered

While the operational run goes for a 3-4 day spell

2 runs prolong the cold for 6-8 days!

But even the ensembles have given no guidance of late;)

LoL

I have to say the following is an ideal chart should it be the case...
The source all the way backinto latvia somewhere and crossing a nice cold pool en route with the HP way up north in scandinavia.
It reminds me of an 80's Easterly

And at this time of the year...
What more could you want?

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVN89.TIF

Key questions are how long will this go on before the tap is turned off?
And will that hp be far enough north to stream in the coldest air?

Will we have a shallow low develop in the Irish sea? Those were a treat in the 80's,the snow pelts down in Dublin and along the East coast for hours when one of them develops

Scubadevils

Earthman wrote:

Will we have a shallow low develop in the Irish sea? Those were a treat in the 80's,the snow pelts down in Dublin and along the East coast for hours when one of them develops

Oh I hope so

And from the Met ÉIREANN OUTLOOK :d

Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

Clearly they dont place much faith in this model... -10c 850 over the north of Ireland :eek:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png


That said guys this might never happen-its been cancelled about 10 times already

ninebeanrows

yea were about to reach the crucial 24hrs if the 12z is good were half way there and if tomorrows 00z is the same i think we will have made it:D

At the moment the cold solution is the more likely outcome;)

Scubadevils

I cant understand how the met would put this up if there was a question mark over it. Frequently they don't go beyond 3 days yet here they go pretty much to the end of next week, why go that far if there is such uncertainty?

3 Day Outlook:
Cold overnight on Christmas Eve with some frost and fog. Christmas Day will be cool and bright with some sun at times. But turning very cold after dark with a sharp to severe frost developing. Some fog too. St Stephens Day will be cold and bright with frost and fog clearing gradually. Some sunny spells. Very cold again after dark with frost and fog returning. Cold Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

darkman2

Hi everyone, this is my third time waking up to half decent charts. The ensembles for Dublin look geat. I count 4 colder runs then this one which has to give confidence that were just hours away from this being in the bag. However the UKMO as far as were concerned still concerns me, and the ECM dosnt appear to be working right now. GEM FI is one hell of a run too:D

Squidvicious

Felixdhc wrote:

I cant understand how the met would put this up if there was a question mark over it. Frequently they don't go beyond 3 days yet here they go pretty much to the end of next week, why go that far if there is such uncertainty?

3 Day Outlook:
Cold overnight on Christmas Eve with some frost and fog. Christmas Day will be cool and bright with some sun at times. But turning very cold after dark with a sharp to severe frost developing. Some fog too. St Stephens Day will be cold and bright with frost and fog clearing gradually. Some sunny spells. Very cold again after dark with frost and fog returning. Cold Tuesday morning also with frost and fog clearing slowly, but a little milder later in the day. The rest of the week will see a recovery in the temperatures with little or no frost and with just small amounts of rain at times.

I'm sorry , but this outlook is nonsense bearing in mind today's charts . Unfortunately , meteireann only update once a day so no change for a bit . I'm off 'til tomorrow . In the meantime my prediction is snow for the E and S E next week .:D

darkman2

Surely the 12z is make or break now:D

It hasnt even winked so far
Game seems on.
But I'll caution that wenesday is still 5 days out.
But look at this chart.
Screaming Easterly TBH with a very very cold source

I'd still be greasing the sleigh if this chart comes off.... (touching forest)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1082.html

darkman2

Downgrade 12z but not a complete disaster, the East could still see some flurries:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Ardly much of a downgrade and plenty of time to go yet

Details will come later the pattern is there.

Lets wait for the ENS's;)

darkman2

Ensembles are out, this run definatley a bit milder than the last but still VERY inconclusive:

lucernarian

Lol I can't stick all the U-turns! I suppose I'll have to make a brave call and stick to my forecast of cool but dry on Tuesday/Wednesday. I still feel the charts are varying far too wildly to be taken seriously.

Will the rte country forecast be on any of the days?

And OT question here (sorry guys) but what exactly happened on Shrove Tuesday 2001? Was that a northerly? I had snow lying on a patio 2 weeks after that day.

darkman2

Your not the only one frustrated at the moment, this is simply an extraordinary period of forcasting, nobody knows what may happpen. P.S the UKMO just issued its first warning for Eastern and Central England:)

darkman2

RAW UKMO DATA 12Z JUST OUT!:D Looks much much better.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2005122312//slp16.png

Supercell

The will it wont it is just unbearable, whatever about the uk, we are very very much right at the edge, I suspect it may be Sunday before we can say for sure wheter snow is on the way to Ireland, great fun watching it evolve though!!

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Lol I can't stick all the U-turns! I suppose I'll have to make a brave call and stick to my forecast of cool but dry on Tuesday/Wednesday. I still feel the charts are varying far too wildly to be taken seriously.

Will the rte country forecast be on any of the days?

And OT question here (sorry guys) but what exactly happened on Shrove Tuesday 2001? Was that a northerly? I had snow lying on a patio 2 weeks after that day.

that was an unusual setup, screaming northerly!!

http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2001/brack/bracka20010227.gif

darkman2

Nogaps jumps on the bandwagon:) :http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif

I like the lower pressure and the long line of precipitation in the Irish sea on that nogaps.
Theres only one place it can go and it aint Wales this time.

darkman2

Hi Earthman, that precip is only indicative, in fact that flow is the best we could hope for and would certainly bring snow to the east, like 95/96. Still big question marks over:

a: exactly when it starts
b: how long it lasts
c: its impact on us

Hard to believe these questions still have to be answered in an event under 96 hrs away


Here is the latest UKMO. An interesting one: notice the bulge in the Isobars across Britian, that is an indication of a possible widespread snow event which would effect this country following its trek across the Irish sea

Supercell

Its gonna be borderline sleet or snow on that, wouldnt like to be the met office calling that one!!

Danno

Looks good...

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Its gonna be borderline sleet or snow on that, wouldnt like to be the met office calling that one!!

Now dont get me started:D

The airmass is more than cold enough for snow!

Just many of those showers may fall as hail due to their intesnity

Anyway leave the details for after Christmas dinner on Sunday:D