05-06 snowy weather indications (part 4)

Supercell

Lol, impressive restraint there Weathercheck, good on ya!!

I'm thinking the same, the ensembles are still all over the place for Dublin and think it really will be the 12z on xmas day before I start believing the charts for here for the Monday -Thursday timeframe!

Agreed regarding weathercheck model 1.02

Except I'm now hungry...

Supercell

that said..am feeling a STRONG urge to get excited ..but been there, done that, too many times in the 00's to get overly excited yet.

lucernarian

I don't doubt that the UKMO chart is very promising for Ireland, or at least the southeast of Ireland. The GFS chart however shows that bulge over the Ruhr Valley in Germany at t+96. It will be very interesting to see where it will hit.

Longfield, the link you provided shows an unusual chart. What kind of feature is the "double front" which I happened to be exactly in the middle of? I guess the system was a polar low. If I got that again I wouldn't complain at all. 3 feet deifts and the like:D

And sorry for spoiling the mood, but will the charts turn against us again?:o

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I don't doubt that the UKMO chart is very promising for Ireland, or at least the southeast of Ireland. The GFS chart however shows that bulge over the Ruhr Valley in Germany at t+96. It will be very interesting to see where it will hit.

Longfield, the link you provided shows an unusual chart. What kind of feature is the "double front" which I happened to be exactly in the middle of? I guess the system was a polar low. If I got that again I wouldn't complain at all. 3 feet deifts and the like:D

And sorry for spoiling the mood, but will the charts turn against us again?:o

It was polar maritime low and a pretty active one at that.

The feature was small but very unstable giving several troughs one of which looks to be strong enough be classified as an occuded front , and the main one which was wrapped around the small center was catching it up, giving the double barrel effect.

Don't think we saw anythingh but rain from that here in Dublin?, to benifit from it you need to be roughly 10-20 miles inland or at elevation usually in Ireland, which you must be.

Will the charts turn against us..who knows!!, I bet Weathercheck model 1.01 is just dying to say they won't..but the new improved model 1.02 seems to have a wisdom addition to it.

The only one that can answer that question reliably is mother nature and she's out doing last minute shopping at the moment!!

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

It was polar maritime low and a pretty active one at that.

The feature was small but very unstable giving several troughs one of which looks to be strong enough be classified as an occuded front , and the main one which was wrapped around the small center was catching it up, giving the double barrel effect.

Don't think we saw anythingh but rain from that here in Dublin?, to benifit from it you need to be roughly 10-20 miles inland or at elevation usually in Ireland, which you must be.

Will the charts turn against us..who knows!!, I bet Weathercheck model 1.01 is just dying to say they won't..but the new improved model 1.02 seems to have a wisdom addition to it.

The only one that can answer that question reliably is mother nature and she's out doing last minute shopping at the moment!!

U joking??:D

That's my pride and joy event one i crave to see again!

Februay 27th 2001:D

Biggest snowfall i have ever witenessed, about 8 inches with drifts more than 2 and half feet! I remember diving into the drifts which ;ay agains the front of the houses on my row.

I never went to bed that night:D

During the previous evening there was slushy hail showers, they all melted and the ground was all wet, i was really annoyed! But i woke up at 2am!
It was snowing hard, at 5am snow blanketed out my window, it was still snowing, the snow stuck to everything! It snowed and snowed! Then the power went out! Off course i treated myself to a day off and i learnt the following day that the school was shut for 2 days due to frozen pipes. Freezing weather followed with ice and i remember everyone removing snow from the front of there house every morning for days!

Best snow event of my life:D

So no it did not rain:eek:

RANT OVER;)

Supercell

Impressive description there Weathercheck, don't recall anything like that here, but now i think of it where was good snowfall from it further north than here which you are.

Earthman, Mothman did you recall anything like this in your areas?, think you got very lucky Weathercheck with that, was one of those very borderline events..remind you of the current charts? !!
I was living in Dublin city centre at that time so is very possible that the Heat Island turned the snow to rain, have frequently seen it snowing here for example in Rathgar only to find its raining in the city centre, snow is sooooo knife edge here !!

lucernarian

Lol I bet it wasn't so bad in Dublin that neighbours had to get a bulldozer to clear the road! Unfortunately I can't see that happening next week unless we see a channel low and suchlike. I think that's very unlikely.

I notice mentions of breakdowns on TWO. We could do amazingly well out of it if the initial HP was cold and strong enough!

darkman2

This is as close as it gets, I fear it will be a case of close but no cigar:(

darkman2

18z is dribbling out now, upgrade or downgrade? P.S if anyone sees the met eireann tv forcast at 9:30 could you let us know what they said, Cheers.DM:)

Met Éireann at 930 mentioned air from scandanavia and getting significantly colder...

Looking at that 18z for tuesday, the 850 -5 line flirts the east coast at 6am and by noon is right over the west ie it has grasped the whole country.
Not cold enough yet but certainly moving fast.

The game seems to be still on
I notice the BBC news 24 forecasts are now showing heavy snow for central as well as Eastern England for Tuesday.
Thats an indication a very good indication.

darkman2

A downgrade on the 12z even, so I doubt this is gonna come off, unless there is yet another huge turn around on the 00 and 06z:(

heh where have I heard that before
Too much high pressure ridging in this one for Irish sea lake effects either and in fact too warm.

I'd be worried about this 18z were it not for the bbc 24 forecast I saw.

That said, yeah, the coldest air might get as far as cardigan bay and no further west and come friday it will be raining and with a temp of 14c

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

Earthman, Mothman did you recall anything like this in your areas?,

I built my house in 98, and haven't had a snow to fully cover the grass yet. So about an inch max. I have a picture of house with half the roof covered. It's not dated but was certainly early 2001.

As for 27th Feb 2001, Very windy cold day. Max 1.8C, min 0.2C with dew point not falling below -1C. Over 10mm precipitation, of which some must have fallen as snow, but melted on impact.

As Earthman will now backup, I'm located in a small area stretching north from Wicklow Town to Kilcoole that seems to generally experience temps a degree higher than surrounding areas, and I can think of times when the county has been covered in snow and this little area has missed out.

As for next week, I don't think there be much precipitation, (pressure too high staying above 1020hPa) and with me I'm doubtful of seeing any snow, never mind any settling.

As for -5C 850 temps, arn't 2m temps usually about 10C above th 850 temps, although I know in a high pressure there is often little difference, but then there is no precipitation anyway. The 850 temps over us today are -1C to +1C, so -5C is not much colder.

The 2130 TV forecast was for a generally dry cool week, so no hint of any goodies Though they did show a graphic showing the cold air moving round the high pressure

Supercell

The 850 temp to sea leval is always a very rough measure, would say that the current forcast ones are 6-8C rather than 10C , all to play for ..heart condition weak..

darkman2

Check out this UKMO fax chart: the ups and downs of model watching these last copule of days have been unbelievable:http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack3.gif

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

As for 27th Feb 2001, Very windy cold day. Max 1.8C, min 0.2C with dew point not falling below -1C. Over 10mm precipitation, of which some must have fallen as snow, but melted on impact.

If I remember correctly, it snowed most of the day here that day but didnt settle untill dark, then it whitened the ground a good bit, but maybe an inch, thats all.
Certainly a lot less than Dublin.
I drove up to Bally cogue, just 5 miles away and at 600ft asl approx and the snow was on the road above the wheels of the jeep.

As for next week, I don't think there be much precipitation, (pressure too high staying above 1020hPa) and with me I'm doubtful of seeing any snow, never mind any settling.

As for -5C 850 temps, arn't 2m temps usually about 10C above th 850 temps, although I know in a high pressure there is often little difference, but then there is no precipitation anyway. The 850 temps over us today are -1C to +1C, so -5C is not much colder.

My jury is entirely out on this one.
I kind of am expecting snow.The BBC forecasts tonight seem to have a lot of precipitation coming well inland over the East and south of the UK - so I dont know what that means pressure wise, but I'd have thought it meant they think it will be lower.
It would bode well for Irish sea showers.
Very very hard to say at this stage.
I'm inclined to think aswell that the 850 charts we are all looking at are indicative only and , the air aloft might and certainly possibly should be cold enough for snow especially since the source should almost guarantee low dew points.