05-06 snowy weather indications (part 5)

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

It all looks good for our 72hr easterly Blast:D

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

Hi weathercheck, if this dosnt deliver snow I dont know what will:D :

As long as you live near the east coast you should see a few flurries at least:D

ninebeanrows

I wonder in years to come will we be looking back to the Christmas period of 2005 and talking about how the severest winter since 87' began:D

You know Scandy Highs are really hard to move once they are in control
and especially when temperatures across western europe dip well below
freezing.

We could just be starting to see the beginning for the great winter of 05/06:D

It all looks good!

And perhaps most importantly it's only late December!

Agreed

Charts like that are reminisent of the 1980's and everyone of them delivered snow.
The last serious Scandi high like this one that I remember was way back in february 01 iirc and that dumped about 6 or 8 inches here in heavy showers.
Most of that actually fell on a friday night into saturday morning.
The milder weather arrived on Tuesday but it still took a few days to shift the snow.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Agreed

Charts like that are reminisent of the 1980's and everyone of them delivered snow.
The last serious Scandi high like this one that I remember was way back in february 01 iirc and that dumped about 6 or 8 inches here in heavy showers.
Most of that actually fell on a friday night into saturday morning.
The milder weather arrived on Tuesday but it still took a few days to shift the snow.

I of course meant february 91 iirc around valentines day

Gonzo

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

darkman2

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Sry mate, impossible to say 'how much' just now as the charts have been mental these last few days. Tomorrow we will know for ceratin:)

Mothman

Gonzo wrote:

so have we any chance of seeing proper decent snow as in 4/5 inchs+ on hte ground in eastern low lying areas?

Longfield is right with his word,

though I still think that precipitation levels will be low, but not as low as I said earlier

jd

Longfield wrote:

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

I thought weahtercheck v1.01 had reaapeared for a second..:)

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

In a word YES!!

Am i getting excited, YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES !!!

Ok , i'll calm down now.

Is your hat on your menu

Duiske

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.
By the way, weather check has not updated his site for awhile, but he must be proud of the last sentence on his homepage. Great call !! :cool:

Supercell

Mothman wrote:

Is your hat on your menu

Hehe, I think i'm infected with whatever WC V1.01 had before!!

darkman2

Met Eireann, I dont know what they are up to, they still dont acknowledge at least the possibility of snow:rolleyes:

Supercell

Duiske_Lad wrote:

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.
By the way, weather check has not updated his site for awhile, but he must be proud of the last sentence on his homepage. Great call !! :cool:

Absolutely, its very hard to forecast, historically in the great freeze ups in my lifetime..which have had setups not unlike this..the Irish Sea delivered the goods

Mothman

darkman2 wrote:

Met Eireann, I dont know what they are up to, they still dont acknowledge at least the possibility of snow:rolleyes:

yes the website doesn't agree with their spoken word. They mentioned snow at 0755z

Mothman

Duiske_Lad wrote:

would I be right in saying that e'tly winds are very unpredictable in terms of what snowfall they can bring ? I can recall over the years, during easterlys, heavy snowfalls that were either not forecast, or for which only a matter of a few hours advance warning was given, particularly around dublin, wicklow, wexford areas.

That's how I see it. It just can't be predicted what troughs etc will get here until much closer to time. But sea temps are a high 11C which will be a good enhancement to any feature, providing it doesn't warm the air too much.

Well as I said earlier, they're probably all out buying presents...

FFS theres no news on aertel or weather for that matter on Xmas day.
The Russians could be setting up camp in Gorey for all we know( if our radios were broken and the tv was stuck on text )

To reply to Duiske_Lad

Yes some areas will be lucky and pick up all the showers and others none.
The Friday saturday showers that I spoke of in 1991 were particularally heavy here but Dublin got none of them.
Driving north on the N11 the snow went as far as the Beehive pub.There was very little in wicklow town.

That said, we simply cant count chickens here untill sunday evening as this weather will be at its most intense for us from wenesday onwards tbh I think.
It should be very clear what precipitation there will be by monday evening.
The latest Fax charts from the UKMO indicate a lot though...
Very subject to change still.
A subtle rise in pressure and your chances of snow could be scuppered.

SpitfireIV

Is there annual awards on this site? If so I think this thread would win 'Most Exciting' or 'RollerCoaster Ride of the Year', .

Great stuff guys, glued to it here, thanks for all the great info!

CroppyBoy1798

darkman2

Were in the depth of winter, the days are at their shortest, the dew points at their lowest, I would be absolutly astonished if no sleet or snow fell in at least some Eastern areas, this is an easterly afterall;)

Below zero dewpoints would be nice

My website which updates every 5 minutes is down due to the server in the states being off line

I hope it goes back up and doesnt stay down right through this cold spell

Mothman

Earthman wrote:

Driving north on the N11 the snow went as far as the Beehive pub.There was very little in wicklow town.

That would explain why I can't remember as I'm north of Beehive

Mothman

Mothman wrote:

That would explain why I can't remember as I'm north of Beehive

Yeah we litterally had to be in wicklow town on the tuesday and despite it being mild by then, we still had to push the car to get it unstuck in front of the house here and the drive even into Arklow was hairy too as there were big lumps of hard snow on the road still.
The N11 was clear though.

Ah its all ahead of us again, if not this week maybe later in the winter....

Or It could be the warmest winter on record

darkman2

Anyone notice the wintry natue of the sky today, always a good sign;)

Mothman

darkman2 wrote:

I would be absolutly astonished if no sleet or snow fell in at least some Eastern areas, this is an easterly afterall;)

And on the flip side, I'd be astonished if we got a dumping.

What are the air temps going to be. I have doubt that it going to be cold enough for snow to lie with me, unless it is a dumping which will bring the cold air down

and Earthman

Or It could be the warmest winter on record

this is no place for saying that, think I'll get a mod to remove it...

Incidently, this month so far is over a degree above average, and I think will still end up above average at end.

darkman2

Mothman wrote:

And on the flip side, I'd be astonished if we got a dumping.

What are the air temps going to be. I have doubt that it going to be cold enough for snow to lie with me, unless it is a dumping which will bring the cold air down

and Earthman


this is no place for saying that, think I'll get a mod to remove it...

Incidently, this month so far is over a degree above average, and I think will still end up above average at end.

Hi Mothman,


This is 12 in the afternoon on Thursday:

Hope this answers your question;)

P.S ignore the 5 degrees on the East coast, It definately wont be 5 degrees, more like two degrees.

Mothman

darkman2 wrote:

Hi Mothman,



Hope this answers your question;)

P.S ignore the 5 degrees on the East coast, It definately wont be 5 degrees, more like two degrees.

Thanks

I'll split the difference and go with 3.5C with me.
I'm just to close to sea. Ashford village is further inland, the other side of hill and gets much more snow settling than with me.

Supercell

Anyone know the exact date when we had that really thundery day in October a few years back?, am curious to see the charts and if they are anything like whats currently developing.

Supercell

Mothman wrote:

Thanks

I'll split the difference and go with 3.5C with me.
I'm just to close to sea. Ashford village is further inland, the other side of hill and gets much more snow settling than with me.

3.5 is probably not a bad guess in between the showers during the daytime for most of the east coast, would imagine a few miles inland and during showers this would fall a couple of degrees (or more).

I remember huge icicles hanging down from the garage roof during '82 which to my memory had the longest lived settled heavy snow in my lifetime in Dublin, was quite a sight..again charts not a million miles away from the forecast ones..there I go again getting excited....

darkman2

Longfield are you talking about the 'three day thunderstorm' that came off the Irish sea?? I assume you are, this situation is completely different, the intensity is not there. For an event like your talking about a small area of low pressure has to develope in the Irish sea bringing unstable northeasterlies:)

Mothman

Longfield wrote:

Anyone know the exact date when we had that really thundery day in October a few years back?, am curious to see the charts and if they are anything like whats currently developing.

22nd Oct 2003, and the day before and after.